No Growth in China and other Outrageous Prophecies
STOCKS, ECONOMY, CURRENCIES, POLITICS, 2009
CNBC.com | 18 Dec 2008 | 02:03 AM ET
This year has been marked by astonishing and market-changing events including a $100 fall in the price of oil, the drop to zero of U.S. interest rates and the collapse of Wall Street giants such as Lehman Brothers.
Next year could bring more, equally unbelievable, happenings such as another 400 points being wiped off the S&P 500 and a slump in Chinese growth to zero, according to a report from Saxo Bank titled “10 Outrageous Claims 2009.”
Video: David Karsbol, markets strategist from Saxo Bank, spoke to CNBC about the predictions.
1. Iranian Revolution
If oil prices continue to decline, which Saxo Bank believes they will, the Iranian society will be badly affected due to the country’s reliance on its number one commodity. The government may not be able to provide the basic necessities its citizens need, which would lead to widespread social unrest, according to Saxo Bank.
2. Crude Oil to $25
The ongoing economic crisis will further dent oil demand throughout next year, sending the price ever closer to $25 a barrel, Saxo Bank said. OPEC production cuts will be hampered by disagreement and fail to stem the slide, it added.
3. S&P 500 to 500
The S&P 500 will fall to 500 points in 2009 as slowing corporate earnings will drag on the U.S. index, according to Saxo Bank. Earnings will slow because of a continued consumer recession, lead by the credit shortage. An increase in corporate funding costs, falls in house prices and a slowdown in investing programs will also add to the weakness, the report said.
4. Italy Could Drop the Euro
Italy could make good on threats to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and may drop out in 2009, Saxo Bank said, a decision which would mean the country effectively gives up the euro. The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits, which could prompt Italy to leave the currency regulation, it said.
5. Australian Dollar to Slump vs Yen
The Australian dollar will sink to 40 Japanese yen as next year’s continued slump in commodities hurts the Australian economy, Saxo Bank said. The whole commodity complex will be left dead in the water for the next ten years, the report said.
6. Dollar to Outstrip the Euro
The euro will fall to 0.95 cents versus the dollar in the New Year, before shifting direction and rising to 1.30 cents, according to Saxo Bank. The euro-zone will face a tough year in 2009 as the banking sector will suffer because of its exposure to Eastern Europe, a region that will increasingly falter next year, the report said.
7. Chinese GDP Growth to 0%
Export-led China will be hit by the double blow of a slowing U.S. economy and the souring of commodity-based investments, according to Saxo Bank. Japan will not actually sink into recession, despite gross-domestic-product growth all but disappearing, the report said.
8. Eastern European Forex Pegs to Fail
Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the euro will come under increasing pressure to decouple next year, the report said. The emerging economies are vulnerable to more credit-market disruptions, it added.
9. Commodities Prices to Plunge
Commodities are facing widespread weakness next year with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30 percent, according to Saxo Bank. The consensus belief that demand has been outstripping supply for years might not even be true and more stockpiles could be revealed, the report said.
10. Yen to Become Currency Peg
Asian countries could shun dollar pegs in favor of the Chinese yen next year, according to Saxo Bank. China’s economic, political and cultural influence is growing and shifts in market re-evaluations will favor the country, the report added.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Barack Obama ETF Portfolio Sector ETFs
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR XLY
Hospital Managers and Medicaid Companies iShares Dow Jones U. S. Healthcare Providers IHF
Natural Gas United States Natural Gas UNG
Solar Power Market Vectors Solar Energy KWT
Wind Power First Trust Global Wind Energy FAN
Hospital Managers and Medicaid Companies iShares Dow Jones U. S. Healthcare Providers IHF
Natural Gas United States Natural Gas UNG
Solar Power Market Vectors Solar Energy KWT
Wind Power First Trust Global Wind Energy FAN
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Oct 2008
I want to record the historical event here so that I can refer:
Starting from Oct, 2008, right after the 700B bailout got approved by the house for the 2nd time, the market tumbled. Within 5 days, market went on free fall. It dropped more than 16% in a roll.
The economic all sudden stopped running. The credit crisis starts with nobody (banks) wanted to lend with each other. I was adding long positions like crazy. Now I am all underwater.
Starting from Oct, 2008, right after the 700B bailout got approved by the house for the 2nd time, the market tumbled. Within 5 days, market went on free fall. It dropped more than 16% in a roll.
The economic all sudden stopped running. The credit crisis starts with nobody (banks) wanted to lend with each other. I was adding long positions like crazy. Now I am all underwater.
Friday, October 3, 2008
FEED
Friday, market went up 300 pts then nosed down to -150. All Ren's holdings are underwater.
Michelle was just panic and peeled to her pants. She wanted to sell everything, especially FEED. She thinks FEED would not be able to get back to buying level for very long time. She suggested to sell and change to something else such as MOS, FRO.
MOS -- $40.8
FRO -- $42
Michelle was just panic and peeled to her pants. She wanted to sell everything, especially FEED. She thinks FEED would not be able to get back to buying level for very long time. She suggested to sell and change to something else such as MOS, FRO.
MOS -- $40.8
FRO -- $42
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
History has been made
Yesterday, 9/29/2008, Dow down 777 pts. Today's action:
1. Buy BPT 100 shares each in Roths;
2. Average down UYG 200 shares;
3. Average down SSO 200 shares;
4. Average down 100 shares of FRO & Sell SPY puts in r2y.
1. Buy BPT 100 shares each in Roths;
2. Average down UYG 200 shares;
3. Average down SSO 200 shares;
4. Average down 100 shares of FRO & Sell SPY puts in r2y.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
building up a profitable portfolio
1. renshan2: DBA & GDX holding with option play.
2. renshan2735: UNG, DUK, and SPY trade
3. r2y: FRO & FEED & LKQX holding, option play
4. roth: BPT
5. sep: DUK
2. renshan2735: UNG, DUK, and SPY trade
3. r2y: FRO & FEED & LKQX holding, option play
4. roth: BPT
5. sep: DUK
Monday, September 22, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
Visited Georgetown Village at Woodbridge
The community is in bad shape. The problem is it is 100% black. Not Good.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
How to create new user account
By invoke http://www.icctoday.com/_layouts/CreateAdAccount.aspx with pass user creditial
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Wednesday 4-9-2008
For those days, the market was very bothering. Although there were a couple of days huge up days with huge volumes, the rest of the days were just a slow drifting. The FA side is all bad news, even Fed is admitting that the economy is going to recession. A day ago, BB said he saw the downturn would be not very serviou. Next day, the fed meeting minutes showed they were very concerned about the deep recession. From the TA side, the market is over-bought. So I have kept adding small short positions to the indices.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
GOLD related ETFs
DGL Gold long
DGP Gold Double long
DGZ Gold Short
DZZ Gold Double short
GLD Gold
GDX Gold miners
DGP Gold Double long
DGZ Gold Short
DZZ Gold Double short
GLD Gold
GDX Gold miners
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Wednesday 4-2-2008
1:15 PM
Today Ben Bernanke testified infront of the congress, and said that the recession is coming. My question is that why till now he started telling the real thing, and what he had done during those 6 months.
Basically, he had cut interest rate more than 9 times, injected fed funds more than $300 billion, loss many montery policies for the banks. Now, he thinks that it is pretty enough to cure the economy or it is out of his hand. Obviously, the main street feels the pain. I don't know if it is the time to be bullish instead of bearish.
So actually, at this time, TA should be shining. From the TA, I believe that the market is at this short term top.
Today Ben Bernanke testified infront of the congress, and said that the recession is coming. My question is that why till now he started telling the real thing, and what he had done during those 6 months.
Basically, he had cut interest rate more than 9 times, injected fed funds more than $300 billion, loss many montery policies for the banks. Now, he thinks that it is pretty enough to cure the economy or it is out of his hand. Obviously, the main street feels the pain. I don't know if it is the time to be bullish instead of bearish.
So actually, at this time, TA should be shining. From the TA, I believe that the market is at this short term top.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Monday 3-17-2008
9:30 PM
The market was choppy. The world market plunged, and Bear Sterns was marketed at $2. But the US market pre-market went down 200 and at close, the Dow was up 20 pts, Naz down 35, and SP down 11 pts. The PPT at work is very clear. Intraday, DJ Wilshire 5000, Naz and SP made new low.
To me, the bottom is no there yet. Tomorrow, there will be Fed decision. Add short positions on any bounce.
The market was choppy. The world market plunged, and Bear Sterns was marketed at $2. But the US market pre-market went down 200 and at close, the Dow was up 20 pts, Naz down 35, and SP down 11 pts. The PPT at work is very clear. Intraday, DJ Wilshire 5000, Naz and SP made new low.
To me, the bottom is no there yet. Tomorrow, there will be Fed decision. Add short positions on any bounce.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Commodity ETFs and ETNs
Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/64802-which-of-the-6-agriculture-etfs-is-best
Commodity ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and ETNs (exchange-traded notes) List
(click on symbol for data and articles)
Broad Based Commodity ETFs and ETNs
GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index (GCC)
GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN (GSC)
iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG)
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP)
iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (GSP)
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund ETF (DBC)
Agricultural Commodities ETFs
ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Biofuels Index ETF (FUE)
ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index ETF (GRU)
ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index – Agriculture ETN (RJA)
iPath Dow Jones AIG-Agriculture ETN (JJA)
iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG)
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Livestock Total Return Sub-Index ETN (COW)
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)
Gold, Silver and Metals ETFs
iPath DJ-AIG Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-Index (JJM)
iPath DJ-AIG Nickel Total Return Sub-Index (JJN)
iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
PowerShares DB Gold Fund ETF (DGL)
streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
PowerShares DB Silver Fund ETF (DBS)
PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund ETF (DBP)
PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund ETF (DBB)
Oil and Gas ETFs and ETNs
Claymore MACROshares Oil Up Tradeable ETF (UCR)
iPath DJ-AIG Energy Total Return Sub-Index (JJE)
iPath DJ-AIG Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index (GAZ)
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)
PowerShares DB Energy Fund ETF (DBE)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO)
United States Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)
United States Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO)
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL)
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG)
Commodities-Related ETFs
Van Eck Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
Van Eck Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)
Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
What Are They?
Commodity ETFs (exchange traded funds) attempt to track the price of a single commodity, such as gold or oil, or a basket of commodities by holding the actual commodity in storage, or by purchasing futures contracts. Because futures provide leverage (more exposure than the actual cash invested), ETFs that use futures contracts have uninvested cash, which they usually park in interest-bearing government bonds. The interest on the bonds is used to cover the expenses of the ETF and to pay dividends to the holders.
Commodity ETNs (exchange traded notes) are non-interest paying debt instruments whose price fluctuates (by contractual commitment) with an underlying commodities index. Because they are debt obligations, ETNs are subject to the solvency of the issuer.
Commodities-related ETFs generally track the producers of commodities, such as mining companies. While the financial performance of those companies -- and thus their stocks -- may be highly leveraged to the underlying commodity, other factors can impact the profitability of production. The ETFs, therefore, may not reflect the performance of the underlying commodity. For example, gold miners are highly leveraged to the discovery of gold deposits, exchange rates and their relationships with the countries where gold deposits are found.
Why & How To Use Them
Commodities are a separate asset class from stocks and bonds, so they provide extra diversification in a portfolio.
The case for commodities: The industrialization of the China and India and the integration of Russia and Eastern Europe into the global economy are boosting demand for commodities, driving up prices. Many people believe that this will result in a long term uptrend ("super cycle") in commodity prices.
The case against commodities: In contrast to stocks and bonds, commodities are not income generating. So ownership of commodities, including via ETFs or ETNs, is a pure bet on prices. And the expenses charged by the ETF and ETN providers and in the cost of storing hard assets or trading futures eat away at the underlying value of the fund.
Commodity ETFs and ETNs can also be used as a hedge. For example, if you consume a large amount of gasoline and heating fuel and are concerned about the impact on your income of a rise in oil and gas prices, buying an oil and gas ETF can help offset your exposure.
What to Look Out For
Commodities ETFs that use futures have diverged significantly from the price of the hard commodities themselves. ETNs, in contrast, track the price of the commodity closely. See the articles in the Further Reading section below.
There are dramatic differences in structure of these ETFs and ETNs, even for the same commodities, leading to potential differences in performance and tax treatment.
ETFs and ETNs are treated differently for taxation purposes. Current opinion is that all gains on ETNs held for longer than one year are treated as long-term capital gains, whereas an investor owning a futures-based ETF is taxed on any capital gains on the underlying futures held by the fund using the taxation convention for futures, ie. at a hybrid rate of 60% long-term, 40% short-term each year on all gains, even if the investor doesn't sell the fund. (Check this carefully with your accountant.)
Further Reading
For long term investors considering including a commodity ETF in a diversified portfolio, the value of commodities as a diversifier is addressed by Nik Bienkowski in Commodities Outperform During Equity Market Downturns. Mebane Faber discusses a portfolio including commodities exposure in An Endowment Portfolio From Publicly-Traded Vehicles. For a negative view on the investment case for commodities, see Bill Miller on Oil, Silver, Other Commodities: Don't Buy!.
Roger Ehrenberg discusses using commodity ETFs to hedge real exposure to oil and gas in Think Carefully Before Macro Hedging Your Life/Work/Oil Exposures.
The underperformance of futures-based commodity ETFs relative to the actual commodity they are supposed to track is discussed in Scott Rothbort's US Oil Fund ETF Fails Investors Consistently. Richard Shaw presents the case for commodity ETNs over commodity ETFs in Troubled By ETF Tracking Failures? Try ETNs. See also The ETN Market Heats Up With Goldman Launch; More On the Way (Matt Hougan).
Should you use a broad commodities ETF or a set of ETFs or ETNs that track individual commodities? See Richard Kang's Is Commodity ETF Slicing and Dicing Necessary?.
For further analysis of these ETFs, and comparisons between them, see: Commodity ETF Overview (Tim Iacono), A Look at the New GreenHaven Commodity ETF (Hard Assets Investor), Commodity Exposure Via ETFs: A Fund Manager's Process (Keith Lenger), Ameristock Funds' New Gas Futures ETF: An Attractive Instrument In So Volatile a Market (Matt Hougan), First Gasoline ETF Comes to Market (Murray Coleman), Natural Gas ETF Is No Long Term Hold (Zman), New iShares GSCI Commodity Trust - Key Points To Understand (Market Participant), Commodities ETFs Protect The Little Guy (Tim Iacono), The New Generation of Diversified Commodity Indexes (Rich White), New ETF Tracks Oil-Prices Across 12 Months (Eli Hoffmann) and Digging Deeper Into Commodity-Based Funds (Keith Lenger).
For analysis and discussion of agricultural commoditiies ETFs see Powershares' Agricultural ETF: The Soft Commodities Slam Dunk (Nicolas Vardy), PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF: 'Optimum Yield' or Undue Risk? (Don Dion) and Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best? (Matthew D. McCall).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/64802-which-of-the-6-agriculture-etfs-is-best
Commodity ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and ETNs (exchange-traded notes) List
(click on symbol for data and articles)
Broad Based Commodity ETFs and ETNs
GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index (GCC)
GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN (GSC)
iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG)
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP)
iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (GSP)
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund ETF (DBC)
Agricultural Commodities ETFs
ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Biofuels Index ETF (FUE)
ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index ETF (GRU)
ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index – Agriculture ETN (RJA)
iPath Dow Jones AIG-Agriculture ETN (JJA)
iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG)
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Livestock Total Return Sub-Index ETN (COW)
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)
Gold, Silver and Metals ETFs
iPath DJ-AIG Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-Index (JJM)
iPath DJ-AIG Nickel Total Return Sub-Index (JJN)
iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
PowerShares DB Gold Fund ETF (DGL)
streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
PowerShares DB Silver Fund ETF (DBS)
PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund ETF (DBP)
PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund ETF (DBB)
Oil and Gas ETFs and ETNs
Claymore MACROshares Oil Up Tradeable ETF (UCR)
iPath DJ-AIG Energy Total Return Sub-Index (JJE)
iPath DJ-AIG Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index (GAZ)
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)
PowerShares DB Energy Fund ETF (DBE)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO)
United States Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)
United States Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO)
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL)
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG)
Commodities-Related ETFs
Van Eck Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
Van Eck Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)
Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
What Are They?
Commodity ETFs (exchange traded funds) attempt to track the price of a single commodity, such as gold or oil, or a basket of commodities by holding the actual commodity in storage, or by purchasing futures contracts. Because futures provide leverage (more exposure than the actual cash invested), ETFs that use futures contracts have uninvested cash, which they usually park in interest-bearing government bonds. The interest on the bonds is used to cover the expenses of the ETF and to pay dividends to the holders.
Commodity ETNs (exchange traded notes) are non-interest paying debt instruments whose price fluctuates (by contractual commitment) with an underlying commodities index. Because they are debt obligations, ETNs are subject to the solvency of the issuer.
Commodities-related ETFs generally track the producers of commodities, such as mining companies. While the financial performance of those companies -- and thus their stocks -- may be highly leveraged to the underlying commodity, other factors can impact the profitability of production. The ETFs, therefore, may not reflect the performance of the underlying commodity. For example, gold miners are highly leveraged to the discovery of gold deposits, exchange rates and their relationships with the countries where gold deposits are found.
Why & How To Use Them
Commodities are a separate asset class from stocks and bonds, so they provide extra diversification in a portfolio.
The case for commodities: The industrialization of the China and India and the integration of Russia and Eastern Europe into the global economy are boosting demand for commodities, driving up prices. Many people believe that this will result in a long term uptrend ("super cycle") in commodity prices.
The case against commodities: In contrast to stocks and bonds, commodities are not income generating. So ownership of commodities, including via ETFs or ETNs, is a pure bet on prices. And the expenses charged by the ETF and ETN providers and in the cost of storing hard assets or trading futures eat away at the underlying value of the fund.
Commodity ETFs and ETNs can also be used as a hedge. For example, if you consume a large amount of gasoline and heating fuel and are concerned about the impact on your income of a rise in oil and gas prices, buying an oil and gas ETF can help offset your exposure.
What to Look Out For
Commodities ETFs that use futures have diverged significantly from the price of the hard commodities themselves. ETNs, in contrast, track the price of the commodity closely. See the articles in the Further Reading section below.
There are dramatic differences in structure of these ETFs and ETNs, even for the same commodities, leading to potential differences in performance and tax treatment.
ETFs and ETNs are treated differently for taxation purposes. Current opinion is that all gains on ETNs held for longer than one year are treated as long-term capital gains, whereas an investor owning a futures-based ETF is taxed on any capital gains on the underlying futures held by the fund using the taxation convention for futures, ie. at a hybrid rate of 60% long-term, 40% short-term each year on all gains, even if the investor doesn't sell the fund. (Check this carefully with your accountant.)
Further Reading
For long term investors considering including a commodity ETF in a diversified portfolio, the value of commodities as a diversifier is addressed by Nik Bienkowski in Commodities Outperform During Equity Market Downturns. Mebane Faber discusses a portfolio including commodities exposure in An Endowment Portfolio From Publicly-Traded Vehicles. For a negative view on the investment case for commodities, see Bill Miller on Oil, Silver, Other Commodities: Don't Buy!.
Roger Ehrenberg discusses using commodity ETFs to hedge real exposure to oil and gas in Think Carefully Before Macro Hedging Your Life/Work/Oil Exposures.
The underperformance of futures-based commodity ETFs relative to the actual commodity they are supposed to track is discussed in Scott Rothbort's US Oil Fund ETF Fails Investors Consistently. Richard Shaw presents the case for commodity ETNs over commodity ETFs in Troubled By ETF Tracking Failures? Try ETNs. See also The ETN Market Heats Up With Goldman Launch; More On the Way (Matt Hougan).
Should you use a broad commodities ETF or a set of ETFs or ETNs that track individual commodities? See Richard Kang's Is Commodity ETF Slicing and Dicing Necessary?.
For further analysis of these ETFs, and comparisons between them, see: Commodity ETF Overview (Tim Iacono), A Look at the New GreenHaven Commodity ETF (Hard Assets Investor), Commodity Exposure Via ETFs: A Fund Manager's Process (Keith Lenger), Ameristock Funds' New Gas Futures ETF: An Attractive Instrument In So Volatile a Market (Matt Hougan), First Gasoline ETF Comes to Market (Murray Coleman), Natural Gas ETF Is No Long Term Hold (Zman), New iShares GSCI Commodity Trust - Key Points To Understand (Market Participant), Commodities ETFs Protect The Little Guy (Tim Iacono), The New Generation of Diversified Commodity Indexes (Rich White), New ETF Tracks Oil-Prices Across 12 Months (Eli Hoffmann) and Digging Deeper Into Commodity-Based Funds (Keith Lenger).
For analysis and discussion of agricultural commoditiies ETFs see Powershares' Agricultural ETF: The Soft Commodities Slam Dunk (Nicolas Vardy), PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF: 'Optimum Yield' or Undue Risk? (Don Dion) and Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best? (Matthew D. McCall).
Friday, March 14, 2008
Friday 3-14-2008
12:00 AM
Some observation is very important. Yesterday, it opened lower, and went up positive. The S&P said that bank's write-down was almost done. This morning, the market went up huge with good CPI numbers. But right after the open, BSC released news that it had liquidity problem and couldn't continue with its business. It was huge bomb, and stock went down close to 300 pts.
The observation here is that yesterday, the market up with no news (some fake news issued by credited company) before the real fact news out. So we need to see the facts instead of any news.
Some observation is very important. Yesterday, it opened lower, and went up positive. The S&P said that bank's write-down was almost done. This morning, the market went up huge with good CPI numbers. But right after the open, BSC released news that it had liquidity problem and couldn't continue with its business. It was huge bomb, and stock went down close to 300 pts.
The observation here is that yesterday, the market up with no news (some fake news issued by credited company) before the real fact news out. So we need to see the facts instead of any news.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Tuesday 3-11-2008
12:20 PM
The market went down again yesterday. SP almost touched the Jan low. NAZ has been lower than Jan low. Dow is getting close. So it is in the virgin of breaking all time lows.
This morning, Fed injected $200B into the financial system. It offered 28 days loans to the banks. The market took it as good news, and went up 250 pts at one time. Here is some of my thoughts:
1. It happened on 2000 recession. The market went up huge before the next leg down.
2. The injection of this huge amount of money is in order to make the banks still functional in events such as stock market crash, or other financial crisis.
So, I believe there will be further very bad news coming in financial mainly. The key to the event is to monitor the market reaction, and measure the depth of this reaction. Sell to any strengths shouldn't be any issue here. Mainly short the finances sector, and indices.
The market went down again yesterday. SP almost touched the Jan low. NAZ has been lower than Jan low. Dow is getting close. So it is in the virgin of breaking all time lows.
This morning, Fed injected $200B into the financial system. It offered 28 days loans to the banks. The market took it as good news, and went up 250 pts at one time. Here is some of my thoughts:
1. It happened on 2000 recession. The market went up huge before the next leg down.
2. The injection of this huge amount of money is in order to make the banks still functional in events such as stock market crash, or other financial crisis.
So, I believe there will be further very bad news coming in financial mainly. The key to the event is to monitor the market reaction, and measure the depth of this reaction. Sell to any strengths shouldn't be any issue here. Mainly short the finances sector, and indices.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Monday 3-10-2008
2:25 PM
The market is on the down trend. The NAZ made new low. Now the S&P has touched 1270. I have just closed all the shorts positions at 2:28 pm.
The market is on the down trend. The NAZ made new low. Now the S&P has touched 1270. I have just closed all the shorts positions at 2:28 pm.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
How to Make Money in a Recession
How to Make Money in a Recession... (If You Are a Big Banker).
So you've just taken over as CEO of SuperMegaMonster Bank. Your predecessor skated off into retirement with a $200 million golden parachute, leaving you to manage $200 billion in bad loans and assorted toxic waste just as the economy is plunging into recession. What are you going to do?
Step 1: Write-Offs
Take huge one-time hits to your earnings and balance sheet and blame it all on the last guy. You'll be able to show a profit sooner if you don't have all these losses trickling in over time. When you do start claiming positive earnings again you'll get all the credit and big bonuses too.
Step 2: Offload Risk
Shift ownership of as much of your toxic waste as possible to the government and retail investors. Scare the crap out of government leaders and the Fed by telling them our entire economic system will come unraveled if they don't save the big banks. They'll enact a wide range of idiotic policies designed to bail you out of the mess your firm created and profited from in the first place. Public pension plans can be suckered into any investment so load them up with the worst of the worst.
Step 3: Credit Crunch
Call in loans to hedge funds, mortgage REITs and other investment schemes. They've served their boom cycle purpose and now they are expendable. Use the money that comes flowing back in to your coffers to purchase the securities that they are forced to unload at a steep discount. The Fed will loan you extra money at ultra cheap rates with your existing securities as collateral so that you can leverage up on even more cheap investments. Don't buy the hopeless stuff, just buy the higher quality stuff that will survive the recession or senior debt that will survive the bankruptcy process.
Step 4: Ride the Carry Trade
With short term rates low and yields high you can play the carry trade for maximum profit. Panicked investors will put their money in low yielding savings accounts and money market accounts and you can invest this in the long-term, high yielding stuff you soaked up in the credit crunch. As short term rates continue to fall, the spread widens and your profit margin increases.
Step 5: Kill Off Struggling Entities
Identify any exposure you have to companies or municipalities that are likely to become insolvent in a recession. Make sure you sell off any equities or long term debt you hold first. Then pull their short term funding to force them into bankruptcy. Layoffs and general panic will help you pick up more securities on the cheap.
Step 6: Eliminate the Competition
Take advantage of the struggling economy to wipe out any competition that grew too quickly in the last boom cycle. Sub-prime lenders? Savings and Loans? Small, local banks? REITs? Fannie Mae? Kill all you can while you can, as you don't want them to compete with you for banking business in the next boom cycle or investing opportunities late in the bust cycle.
Step 7: Debase the Currency
Lobby the Fed for low rates and the Federal Government for deficit spending. Remember that you are now a carry trader, rather than an creditor. It doesn't hurt you if debtors pay you back in a debased currency because you get to pay back depositors in a debased currency as well. To the extent that you have equities, real estate and other hard assets on your books offset by short term debt, inflation actually works in your favor. Paper gains on these assets will help your case with the compensation committee around bonus time.
Reality
No doubt, the big banks are in a very precarious situation right now, but they have their tentacles wrapped around Washington and the Federal Reserve System. There is a clear path to banking profitability and it will come almost entirely at our expense as citizens, investors and taxpayers. All of these steps overlap in the timing of their effectiveness, and I expect we'll see most of the same themes continuing to pop up over the next couple of years as the recession deepens. So far we've seen:
1. A huge "stimulus" package that will help some distressed borrowers make some more mortgage payments. (Step 2)
2. A big increase in FHA, FHLB, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backed loans and securities to take up some of the load off of Wall Street with regards to the mortgage mess. (Step 2)
3. The invention of "Term Auction Credit" as a way of helping big banks sustain or increase their investment portfolios. (Step 3)
4. Falling short term rates to lower the borrowing costs for big banks. (Step 4)
5. Widening spreads to increase the profitability of banks that purchase new assets. (Step 4)
6. A large credit crunch that is forcing hedge funds and other investment vehicles to sell into a difficult market, with investors taking the losses. (Step 3)
7. Continuing rapid growth of the money supply. (Step 7)
8. Struggling municipalities. (Step 5)
9. Rising inflation. (Step 7)
10. A declining dollar. (Step 7)
11. A variety of measures designed to help forestall foreclosures and let banks fudge their accounting for bad loans. (Step 2)
12. The VISA IPO. (Step 2)
13. Big banks helping Thornburg Mortgage raise $230 million in stock offerings in January, only to give them big margin calls in March. (Step 5)
14. The collapse of hundreds of smaller banks and lenders. (Step 6)
15. The abandonment of the Auction Rate Securities market. (Step 3)
16. Seizing control of hedge funds to liquidate their assets. (Step 3)
Eventually the economy will hit bottom and the banks can go back to their even more profitable boom cycle business plan, where they make money by extending credit to anyone who wants to take risks and can make the payments in an expanding economy. It might take awhile for the dust to settle this time though, because the big banks sure managed to mess the economy up badly this time.
So you've just taken over as CEO of SuperMegaMonster Bank. Your predecessor skated off into retirement with a $200 million golden parachute, leaving you to manage $200 billion in bad loans and assorted toxic waste just as the economy is plunging into recession. What are you going to do?
Step 1: Write-Offs
Take huge one-time hits to your earnings and balance sheet and blame it all on the last guy. You'll be able to show a profit sooner if you don't have all these losses trickling in over time. When you do start claiming positive earnings again you'll get all the credit and big bonuses too.
Step 2: Offload Risk
Shift ownership of as much of your toxic waste as possible to the government and retail investors. Scare the crap out of government leaders and the Fed by telling them our entire economic system will come unraveled if they don't save the big banks. They'll enact a wide range of idiotic policies designed to bail you out of the mess your firm created and profited from in the first place. Public pension plans can be suckered into any investment so load them up with the worst of the worst.
Step 3: Credit Crunch
Call in loans to hedge funds, mortgage REITs and other investment schemes. They've served their boom cycle purpose and now they are expendable. Use the money that comes flowing back in to your coffers to purchase the securities that they are forced to unload at a steep discount. The Fed will loan you extra money at ultra cheap rates with your existing securities as collateral so that you can leverage up on even more cheap investments. Don't buy the hopeless stuff, just buy the higher quality stuff that will survive the recession or senior debt that will survive the bankruptcy process.
Step 4: Ride the Carry Trade
With short term rates low and yields high you can play the carry trade for maximum profit. Panicked investors will put their money in low yielding savings accounts and money market accounts and you can invest this in the long-term, high yielding stuff you soaked up in the credit crunch. As short term rates continue to fall, the spread widens and your profit margin increases.
Step 5: Kill Off Struggling Entities
Identify any exposure you have to companies or municipalities that are likely to become insolvent in a recession. Make sure you sell off any equities or long term debt you hold first. Then pull their short term funding to force them into bankruptcy. Layoffs and general panic will help you pick up more securities on the cheap.
Step 6: Eliminate the Competition
Take advantage of the struggling economy to wipe out any competition that grew too quickly in the last boom cycle. Sub-prime lenders? Savings and Loans? Small, local banks? REITs? Fannie Mae? Kill all you can while you can, as you don't want them to compete with you for banking business in the next boom cycle or investing opportunities late in the bust cycle.
Step 7: Debase the Currency
Lobby the Fed for low rates and the Federal Government for deficit spending. Remember that you are now a carry trader, rather than an creditor. It doesn't hurt you if debtors pay you back in a debased currency because you get to pay back depositors in a debased currency as well. To the extent that you have equities, real estate and other hard assets on your books offset by short term debt, inflation actually works in your favor. Paper gains on these assets will help your case with the compensation committee around bonus time.
Reality
No doubt, the big banks are in a very precarious situation right now, but they have their tentacles wrapped around Washington and the Federal Reserve System. There is a clear path to banking profitability and it will come almost entirely at our expense as citizens, investors and taxpayers. All of these steps overlap in the timing of their effectiveness, and I expect we'll see most of the same themes continuing to pop up over the next couple of years as the recession deepens. So far we've seen:
1. A huge "stimulus" package that will help some distressed borrowers make some more mortgage payments. (Step 2)
2. A big increase in FHA, FHLB, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backed loans and securities to take up some of the load off of Wall Street with regards to the mortgage mess. (Step 2)
3. The invention of "Term Auction Credit" as a way of helping big banks sustain or increase their investment portfolios. (Step 3)
4. Falling short term rates to lower the borrowing costs for big banks. (Step 4)
5. Widening spreads to increase the profitability of banks that purchase new assets. (Step 4)
6. A large credit crunch that is forcing hedge funds and other investment vehicles to sell into a difficult market, with investors taking the losses. (Step 3)
7. Continuing rapid growth of the money supply. (Step 7)
8. Struggling municipalities. (Step 5)
9. Rising inflation. (Step 7)
10. A declining dollar. (Step 7)
11. A variety of measures designed to help forestall foreclosures and let banks fudge their accounting for bad loans. (Step 2)
12. The VISA IPO. (Step 2)
13. Big banks helping Thornburg Mortgage raise $230 million in stock offerings in January, only to give them big margin calls in March. (Step 5)
14. The collapse of hundreds of smaller banks and lenders. (Step 6)
15. The abandonment of the Auction Rate Securities market. (Step 3)
16. Seizing control of hedge funds to liquidate their assets. (Step 3)
Eventually the economy will hit bottom and the banks can go back to their even more profitable boom cycle business plan, where they make money by extending credit to anyone who wants to take risks and can make the payments in an expanding economy. It might take awhile for the dust to settle this time though, because the big banks sure managed to mess the economy up badly this time.
About Options Pricing /Trading
(1) 如果想对 "Black-Scholes" options pricing model有更多了解, 不妨一试下面的LINK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes
You can also find many numerical methods to price options in the finance literature.
(2) If you've no time for Black and Scholes and need a quick estimate for an at-the-money call or put option, here is a simple formula.
Price = (0.4 * Volatility * Square Root(Time Ratio)) * Base Price
Time ratio is the time in years that option has until expiration. So, for a 6 month option take the square root of 0.50 (half a year).
For example: calculate the price of an ATM option @ $45 (call and put) that has 3 months until expiration. The underlying volatility is 23%.
Answer: = 0.4 * 0.23 * SQRT(.25) *$45
Option Theoretical (approx) = $2.07
(3) What Affects Equity Option Prices?
The current price of the underlying financial instrument
The strike price of the option in comparison to the current market price (intrinsic value)
The type of option (put or call)
The amount of time remaining until expiration (time value)
The current risk-free interest rate
The volatility of the underlying financial instrument
The dividend rate, if any, of the underlying financial instrument
注意不要本末倒置, 抓住重点, 才能有的放矢。
(4) 对于个人帐户, trading gamma vega theta rho....常常会十分困难, 甚至可以忽略不计, 但俺赞成在trading options前, 对这些概念最好有深入的了解。 Options are the most versatile trading instrument ever invented。 它的最大的好处是high leverage 和limited risks， 所以要善加利用这两点。如果把trading options 和trading the underlying结合起来，在运动(trading)中消灭敌人和在运动(trading)中保护自己, 这有可能是小户战胜大户的致胜之道。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes
You can also find many numerical methods to price options in the finance literature.
(2) If you've no time for Black and Scholes and need a quick estimate for an at-the-money call or put option, here is a simple formula.
Price = (0.4 * Volatility * Square Root(Time Ratio)) * Base Price
Time ratio is the time in years that option has until expiration. So, for a 6 month option take the square root of 0.50 (half a year).
For example: calculate the price of an ATM option @ $45 (call and put) that has 3 months until expiration. The underlying volatility is 23%.
Answer: = 0.4 * 0.23 * SQRT(.25) *$45
Option Theoretical (approx) = $2.07
(3) What Affects Equity Option Prices?
The current price of the underlying financial instrument
The strike price of the option in comparison to the current market price (intrinsic value)
The type of option (put or call)
The amount of time remaining until expiration (time value)
The current risk-free interest rate
The volatility of the underlying financial instrument
The dividend rate, if any, of the underlying financial instrument
注意不要本末倒置, 抓住重点, 才能有的放矢。
(4) 对于个人帐户, trading gamma vega theta rho....常常会十分困难, 甚至可以忽略不计, 但俺赞成在trading options前, 对这些概念最好有深入的了解。 Options are the most versatile trading instrument ever invented。 它的最大的好处是high leverage 和limited risks， 所以要善加利用这两点。如果把trading options 和trading the underlying结合起来，在运动(trading)中消灭敌人和在运动(trading)中保护自己, 这有可能是小户战胜大户的致胜之道。
Theta and Vega, example is inside
Theta is a measure of the rate of decline of option’s time-value resulting from the passage of time (time decay).
Theta provides an estimate of the dollar amount that an option price will lose each day due to the passage of time and there is no move in either the stock price or volatility.
Example:
The price of ABC May 50 Call with 25 days to expiration is $3. Its theta is -0.10. The price of ABC Jul 50 Call with 85 days to expiration is $4.8, and the theta is -0.03. When one day passes and there is no change in ABC stock price as well as the implied volatility of either options, the value of ABC May 50 Call will decrease by $0.10 to $2.9, and the value of ABC Jul 50 Call will drop by $0.03 to $4.77.
Theta of ATM, ITM & OTM Option
Theta is typically highest for ATM options, and is progressively lower as options are ITM and OTM.
This makes sense because ATM options have the highest time value component, so they have more time value to lose over time than an ITM or OTM option.
For ATM option, Theta increases as an option get closer to the expiration date.
In contrast, for ITM & OTM options, Theta decreases as an option is approaching expiration. The above effects are particularly observed in the last few weeks (about 30 days) before expiration.
The Impact of Implied Volatility (IV) and Time Remaining to Expiration on Theta
Theta (time decay) would increase sharply in the last few weeks before expiration and can severely undermine a long option holder's position, particularly if Implied Volatility (IV) is also decreasing at the same time. This is because theta is higher when either volatility is lower or there are fewer days to expiration.
Vega measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in Implied Volatility (IV). Vega estimates how much an option price would change when volatility changes 1%.
Example:
The current price of ABC May 50 Call is $3, with Vega 0.20 and the volatility of ABC stock is 35%. If the volatility of ABC increases to 36%, the ABC May 50 Call’s price will rise to $3.20. If the volatility of ABC drops to 34%, the ABC May 50 Call’s value will drop to $2.80.
Vega of ATM, ITM & OTM Option
The impact of volatility changes is greater for ATM options than for the ITM & OTM options.
Vega is highest for ATM options, and is gradually lower as options are ITM and OTM.
This means that the when there is a change in volatility, the value of ATM options will change the most. This makes sense because ATM options have the highest time value component, and changes in Implied Volatility would only affect the time value portion of an option’s price.
Comparing between ITM & OTM options, the impact of volatility changes is greater for OTM options than it is for ITM options
The Impact of Time Remaining to Expiration on Vega
Assuming all other things unchanged, Vega falls when volatility drops or the option gets closer to expiration.
Vega is higher when there is more time remaining to expiration. This makes sense because options with more time remaining to expiration have larger portion of time value, and it is the time value that is affected by changes in volatility.
Theta provides an estimate of the dollar amount that an option price will lose each day due to the passage of time and there is no move in either the stock price or volatility.
Example:
The price of ABC May 50 Call with 25 days to expiration is $3. Its theta is -0.10. The price of ABC Jul 50 Call with 85 days to expiration is $4.8, and the theta is -0.03. When one day passes and there is no change in ABC stock price as well as the implied volatility of either options, the value of ABC May 50 Call will decrease by $0.10 to $2.9, and the value of ABC Jul 50 Call will drop by $0.03 to $4.77.
Theta of ATM, ITM & OTM Option
Theta is typically highest for ATM options, and is progressively lower as options are ITM and OTM.
This makes sense because ATM options have the highest time value component, so they have more time value to lose over time than an ITM or OTM option.
For ATM option, Theta increases as an option get closer to the expiration date.
In contrast, for ITM & OTM options, Theta decreases as an option is approaching expiration. The above effects are particularly observed in the last few weeks (about 30 days) before expiration.
The Impact of Implied Volatility (IV) and Time Remaining to Expiration on Theta
Theta (time decay) would increase sharply in the last few weeks before expiration and can severely undermine a long option holder's position, particularly if Implied Volatility (IV) is also decreasing at the same time. This is because theta is higher when either volatility is lower or there are fewer days to expiration.
Vega measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in Implied Volatility (IV). Vega estimates how much an option price would change when volatility changes 1%.
Example:
The current price of ABC May 50 Call is $3, with Vega 0.20 and the volatility of ABC stock is 35%. If the volatility of ABC increases to 36%, the ABC May 50 Call’s price will rise to $3.20. If the volatility of ABC drops to 34%, the ABC May 50 Call’s value will drop to $2.80.
Vega of ATM, ITM & OTM Option
The impact of volatility changes is greater for ATM options than for the ITM & OTM options.
Vega is highest for ATM options, and is gradually lower as options are ITM and OTM.
This means that the when there is a change in volatility, the value of ATM options will change the most. This makes sense because ATM options have the highest time value component, and changes in Implied Volatility would only affect the time value portion of an option’s price.
Comparing between ITM & OTM options, the impact of volatility changes is greater for OTM options than it is for ITM options
The Impact of Time Remaining to Expiration on Vega
Assuming all other things unchanged, Vega falls when volatility drops or the option gets closer to expiration.
Vega is higher when there is more time remaining to expiration. This makes sense because options with more time remaining to expiration have larger portion of time value, and it is the time value that is affected by changes in volatility.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Friday, March 7, 2008
Friday 3-7-2008
11:30 AM
This morning the job number was very bad, and Fed did something for the bond market before the number announcement. So now, the market is flat.
That is not important. The important thing for me is that there was post on hutong9.com. ppl are talking about the inflation. Since it is a very conflicting topic, I am very confused now. But one thing is clear that the baby boomer has been created tons of wealth (paper gain - dollars). Now they want to spend it. So I think this is the reason of inflationary. I need to research for it. This is really the next coming trend.
This morning the job number was very bad, and Fed did something for the bond market before the number announcement. So now, the market is flat.
That is not important. The important thing for me is that there was post on hutong9.com. ppl are talking about the inflation. Since it is a very conflicting topic, I am very confused now. But one thing is clear that the baby boomer has been created tons of wealth (paper gain - dollars). Now they want to spend it. So I think this is the reason of inflationary. I need to research for it. This is really the next coming trend.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Economic indicators
Leading indicators
An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices.
Lagging indicators
An economic indicator that changes after the overall economy has changed; examples include labor costs, business spending, the unemployment rate, the prime rate, outstanding bank loans, and inventory book value.
An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices.
Lagging indicators
An economic indicator that changes after the overall economy has changed; examples include labor costs, business spending, the unemployment rate, the prime rate, outstanding bank loans, and inventory book value.
Thursday 3-6-2008
8:40 AM
Ever since Buffett talked about US in recession, the market's tone is totally confirmed. The direction of the market is much clearer than before. Long journal in the bear market. Yesterday, the market waited for the ambac bailout news which was not exciting. The bail out is small and not enough. Now the future is down a lot.
Ever since Buffett talked about US in recession, the market's tone is totally confirmed. The direction of the market is much clearer than before. Long journal in the bear market. Yesterday, the market waited for the ambac bailout news which was not exciting. The bail out is small and not enough. Now the future is down a lot.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Wednesday 3-5-2008
11:00 AM
Today's market is worth to be recorded. Yesterday, the indices (NDX) broke the downtrend line. At one time, around 1:30 pm, the DOW was down -200 pts. But in the last 1.5 hours trade, the market moved up and closed flat. So yesterday was a turnaround day. But all the indicators point no bottom yet.
This morning, the market got some "good" news, that the ISM service reading was better than expected (but still in contraction mode). One of the largest bond insurer is getting help and about to settle soon. So I guess that market is waiting for this news and heading higher.
My play is to add short positions on the news. Let it play out first. The timing might be either tomorrow morning, or on Friday.
Today's market is worth to be recorded. Yesterday, the indices (NDX) broke the downtrend line. At one time, around 1:30 pm, the DOW was down -200 pts. But in the last 1.5 hours trade, the market moved up and closed flat. So yesterday was a turnaround day. But all the indicators point no bottom yet.
This morning, the market got some "good" news, that the ISM service reading was better than expected (but still in contraction mode). One of the largest bond insurer is getting help and about to settle soon. So I guess that market is waiting for this news and heading higher.
My play is to add short positions on the news. Let it play out first. The timing might be either tomorrow morning, or on Friday.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Tuesday 3/4/2008
9:15 AM
After Friday's big down and yesterday's weak pause, today's future is down again. The trend is very clear. I had sold QID, SDS, and 1/2 puts options way too early. Here I believe the building heavy construction (engineering and contructions) stocks will have a good down turn. So I will looking into KBR and PWR to short.
After Friday's big down and yesterday's weak pause, today's future is down again. The trend is very clear. I had sold QID, SDS, and 1/2 puts options way too early. Here I believe the building heavy construction (engineering and contructions) stocks will have a good down turn. So I will looking into KBR and PWR to short.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Monday 3/3/2008
12:30 AM
The market had a lower future, but opened flat, went down about 100 pts, now it is flat again. Overall, due to the large sell off -300 on last Friday. This action should be the continous confirmation. Seeking for some point to reload the short positions.
The market had a lower future, but opened flat, went down about 100 pts, now it is flat again. Overall, due to the large sell off -300 on last Friday. This action should be the continous confirmation. Seeking for some point to reload the short positions.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday 2-26-2008
7:30 AM
The future is flat. I think that the refinary WNR is forming a good bottom here. Do some research.
The future is flat. I think that the refinary WNR is forming a good bottom here. Do some research.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Monday 2-25-2008
9:30 AM
Last Friday was very interesting. The market was going to the down direction for almost the whole day. But in that last half hours, it gave up the down trend, moved up, and closed at around +100 pts on the news of ABK will be bailed out by the banks.
This morning, the market is flat. GS downgraded many banks. Lowes earning is very bad.
Last Friday was very interesting. The market was going to the down direction for almost the whole day. But in that last half hours, it gave up the down trend, moved up, and closed at around +100 pts on the news of ABK will be bailed out by the banks.
This morning, the market is flat. GS downgraded many banks. Lowes earning is very bad.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
公司培训时提供的参考网址--很有用的!
Note:*:推荐**: 重点推荐
Technical analysis associations
IFIA: www.ifta.org
MTA: www.mata.org
Education
Candlecharts: www.candlecharts.com
Candlestick: www.candlestickshop.com/glossary
Day trading university: www.daytradinguniversity.com
Decision point: www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/tacoursemenu.html
Dorsey wright and associates: www.dorseywright.com
Alexander elder*: www.elder.com
E-analytics: www.e-analytics.com
Equis: www.equis.com/free/taaz
Litwick: www.litwick.com/glossary
Market mavens: www.marketmavens.com
Marketwise trading school*: www.marketwise.com
Momentum trading: www.mtrader.com
Murphy morris*: www.murphymorris.com
Pristine: www.stockcharts.com/
Stock charts: www.stockcharts.com/eduction
Stock & commodities magazine: www.traders.com
Traders book press: www.traderspress.com
Trading tutor ( larry pesavento ): www.tradingtutour.com
Gann and cycle analysis
Aerodynamic investment**: www.aeroinvest.com
Calendar research: www.aeroinvest.com
Stock market geometry: www.cycle-trader.comIndicators
Bollinger bands*: www.bollingerbands.com
Fibonacci indicators: www.fibonaccitrader.com
SentimentConsensus: www.consensus-inc.com
Erlanger short rank: www.erlangersqueezeplay.com
Market vane*: www.marketvane.net
Schaeffer`s research: www.schaeffersearch.com
VolumeMarket volume: www.marketvolume.com
Pattern recognition
Investtech: www.investtech.com
Data
Chicago board of trade: www.cbot.com
Chicago board options exchange: www.cboe.com
Commodity futures trading commission: www.cftc.gov
Chicago mercantile exchange: www.cme.com
Commitment of traders: www.commitmentoftrders.com
Commodity research bureau: www.crbtrader.com
End-of-day data(free downloads): www.eoddata.com
Opec: www.opec.org
Statistics Canada: www.statcan.ca
World golg council: www.gold.org
Charting
Barchart: www.barchart.com
Bigcharts: www.bigcharts.com
Dorsey wright and associates: www.dorseywright.com
Incredible charts: www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm
E-signal: www.esognl.com
FX-trek: www.fxtrek.com
Litwick candlestick analysis: www.litwick.com/glossary
Stockcharts: www.stockcharts.com
Stockpoint: www.stockpoint.com
Elliott wave
Aerodynamic investments: www.aeroinvest.com
Elliott wave international: www.elliottwave.com
Bonds
Bond market association: www.bondmarket.com
Bond talk: www.bondtalk.com
Technical analysis associations
IFIA: www.ifta.org
MTA: www.mata.org
Education
Candlecharts: www.candlecharts.com
Candlestick: www.candlestickshop.com/glossary
Day trading university: www.daytradinguniversity.com
Decision point: www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/tacoursemenu.html
Dorsey wright and associates: www.dorseywright.com
Alexander elder*: www.elder.com
E-analytics: www.e-analytics.com
Equis: www.equis.com/free/taaz
Litwick: www.litwick.com/glossary
Market mavens: www.marketmavens.com
Marketwise trading school*: www.marketwise.com
Momentum trading: www.mtrader.com
Murphy morris*: www.murphymorris.com
Pristine: www.stockcharts.com/
Stock charts: www.stockcharts.com/eduction
Stock & commodities magazine: www.traders.com
Traders book press: www.traderspress.com
Trading tutor ( larry pesavento ): www.tradingtutour.com
Gann and cycle analysis
Aerodynamic investment**: www.aeroinvest.com
Calendar research: www.aeroinvest.com
Stock market geometry: www.cycle-trader.comIndicators
Bollinger bands*: www.bollingerbands.com
Fibonacci indicators: www.fibonaccitrader.com
SentimentConsensus: www.consensus-inc.com
Erlanger short rank: www.erlangersqueezeplay.com
Market vane*: www.marketvane.net
Schaeffer`s research: www.schaeffersearch.com
VolumeMarket volume: www.marketvolume.com
Pattern recognition
Investtech: www.investtech.com
Data
Chicago board of trade: www.cbot.com
Chicago board options exchange: www.cboe.com
Commodity futures trading commission: www.cftc.gov
Chicago mercantile exchange: www.cme.com
Commitment of traders: www.commitmentoftrders.com
Commodity research bureau: www.crbtrader.com
End-of-day data(free downloads): www.eoddata.com
Opec: www.opec.org
Statistics Canada: www.statcan.ca
World golg council: www.gold.org
Charting
Barchart: www.barchart.com
Bigcharts: www.bigcharts.com
Dorsey wright and associates: www.dorseywright.com
Incredible charts: www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm
E-signal: www.esognl.com
FX-trek: www.fxtrek.com
Litwick candlestick analysis: www.litwick.com/glossary
Stockcharts: www.stockcharts.com
Stockpoint: www.stockpoint.com
Elliott wave
Aerodynamic investments: www.aeroinvest.com
Elliott wave international: www.elliottwave.com
Bonds
Bond market association: www.bondmarket.com
Bond talk: www.bondtalk.com
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Thursday 2-21-2008
9:30 AM
The pre-market was up huge. The market is in the break out phase of triangle formation. Everybody was nervous due to its magnitude of 5% swing. Due to my amaturity, my positions are all on the short side. So I have to wait and see, or just sit dead. Anyway, all I can do is hope.
The pre-market was up huge. The market is in the break out phase of triangle formation. Everybody was nervous due to its magnitude of 5% swing. Due to my amaturity, my positions are all on the short side. So I have to wait and see, or just sit dead. Anyway, all I can do is hope.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Wednesday 2-20-2008
10:30 AM
The market is in a down direction. The CPI number is not good. Meanwhile, the housing starts numbers are not bad. But overall, the CPI number over weighs. So the market is going down. The TA supports this movement.
The sentiment is that many bulls don't believe it as the major trend line hasn't been broken yet. We should see.
The market is in a down direction. The CPI number is not good. Meanwhile, the housing starts numbers are not bad. But overall, the CPI number over weighs. So the market is going down. The TA supports this movement.
The sentiment is that many bulls don't believe it as the major trend line hasn't been broken yet. We should see.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Tuesday 2-19-2008
9:30 AM
The future market shows a higher opening. All indices are up more than 1.25%. But they are still in the triangle zone. The up line is 1368 for the S&P. If it breaks this line, I expect the market will do A-B-C. Otherwise, that market will trade within the triangle.
12:00 PM
So far, the market is still trapped in that triangle. The buying power is very weak. Shyuan on DQ and Hutong9.com is a very good researcher. He concludes that in major events, hedge funds preset positions. If those positions can't make profit, the next day, they will try to make the market move so that these positions can escape. He observed the events on Dec 11 (Fed rate cut) & 12, and Jan 31 & Fed 1.
Now, I believe it happened again. Last Friday was OE day, and those hedge funds hoping for a huge up day. So they preseat long positions. Unfortunately, there was no short-covering and lack of buying. Those positions are lossing money. So this morning, they moved the market in order to escape. Based on this, I expect the market will make big movement (down) soon.
The future market shows a higher opening. All indices are up more than 1.25%. But they are still in the triangle zone. The up line is 1368 for the S&P. If it breaks this line, I expect the market will do A-B-C. Otherwise, that market will trade within the triangle.
12:00 PM
So far, the market is still trapped in that triangle. The buying power is very weak. Shyuan on DQ and Hutong9.com is a very good researcher. He concludes that in major events, hedge funds preset positions. If those positions can't make profit, the next day, they will try to make the market move so that these positions can escape. He observed the events on Dec 11 (Fed rate cut) & 12, and Jan 31 & Fed 1.
Now, I believe it happened again. Last Friday was OE day, and those hedge funds hoping for a huge up day. So they preseat long positions. Unfortunately, there was no short-covering and lack of buying. Those positions are lossing money. So this morning, they moved the market in order to escape. Based on this, I expect the market will make big movement (down) soon.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Friday 2-15-2008
7:30 AM
The market had a decent sell off yesterday, from open to close. The bond insurers were down graded, which started a couple of weeks ago. This sell off took back all the gains on Wednesday. The volume is heavier than relative low volumes while the market was moving up. Today is the OE day, so I expect the market either stall or downwards as I saw the put/call open interests is high, I still think since the puts are traded by the MMs, they want to make money.
The market had a decent sell off yesterday, from open to close. The bond insurers were down graded, which started a couple of weeks ago. This sell off took back all the gains on Wednesday. The volume is heavier than relative low volumes while the market was moving up. Today is the OE day, so I expect the market either stall or downwards as I saw the put/call open interests is high, I still think since the puts are traded by the MMs, they want to make money.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Wednesday 2-13-2008
11:30 AM
The Jan retails sales was okay up .3% as expect, which pushed all indices higher. Dow was up more than 100 pts, now it is around 70s. The overall sentiment is still bearish. I am holding all short positions.
The Jan retails sales was okay up .3% as expect, which pushed all indices higher. Dow was up more than 100 pts, now it is around 70s. The overall sentiment is still bearish. I am holding all short positions.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Tuesday 2-12-2008
9:45 AM
Buffet started investing into bond insurers. The market gapped up. Again, nothing has been changed so far. The short term is up, and mid term is down. SO I am still on one side play.
Buffet started investing into bond insurers. The market gapped up. Again, nothing has been changed so far. The short term is up, and mid term is down. SO I am still on one side play.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Monday 2-11-2008
2:30 PM
The market opened low, went low, and now it goes up, and making a horizontal S. Since this market is heading lower, I have to play on one side. I have closed all the long positions, and heavily shorted the market right now.
The market opened low, went low, and now it goes up, and making a horizontal S. Since this market is heading lower, I have to play on one side. I have closed all the long positions, and heavily shorted the market right now.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Weekend 2-10-2008
There are 5 stage of economy cycle, they are contraction: 1. early; 2. late, expansion: 1. early; 2. middle; 3. late. We are at early stage of contraction. The market has been down since Oct 2007 for 4 months. It matches the chart from Sep 2000 to Jan 2001 on S&P. This also marks the 1945-1996 statistics data on average down percentage. So it might start a pause and watch phase. Also the average down trend based on the history data is 7 months.
Therefore, I will have to pause and watch too. In the next 3 months, the market can go either ways for the short term. But the mid/long term trend is still down. I expect there will be another leg down. So the bias is to play the down trend for new low. After that, there might be a mid term rally, followed by a mid/long term down turn to retest the new low during or after summer time. Then we will have a huge leg up to close near flat for the whole year.
Therefore, I will have to pause and watch too. In the next 3 months, the market can go either ways for the short term. But the mid/long term trend is still down. I expect there will be another leg down. So the bias is to play the down trend for new low. After that, there might be a mid term rally, followed by a mid/long term down turn to retest the new low during or after summer time. Then we will have a huge leg up to close near flat for the whole year.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Friday 2-9-2008
5:30 PM
The market was up and down, but moving no where. So it is clear that it is consolidation. The trend is very clear now, that the market wants to go down. NO long positions only for a little bit of hedge. Short whenever it goes higher.
The market was up and down, but moving no where. So it is clear that it is consolidation. The trend is very clear now, that the market wants to go down. NO long positions only for a little bit of hedge. Short whenever it goes higher.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Wednesday 2-6-2008
9:20 Am
Yesterday was a big reverse day (continuation day -down trend). I have sold all the shorts, and loaded 1/3 positions of shorts, which was a very bad move.
I do have some problems with these type of days. I think the easy way to avoid is that once positions are cleared, don't jump in too quick. Wait out side and watch for a while see if there is any clear picture. That is to wait for the whole day till next day to see the direction.
This morning, the future is way down. Let's see how it plays out. S&P 1315 (SPY 131.18) is the 61.8% retrace from current up leg - A leg. If it breaks, the Jan low will be re-tested. I will load 100 shares of SSO at SPY $131.18 and QLD at QQQQ $41.60.
Yesterday was a big reverse day (continuation day -down trend). I have sold all the shorts, and loaded 1/3 positions of shorts, which was a very bad move.
I do have some problems with these type of days. I think the easy way to avoid is that once positions are cleared, don't jump in too quick. Wait out side and watch for a while see if there is any clear picture. That is to wait for the whole day till next day to see the direction.
This morning, the future is way down. Let's see how it plays out. S&P 1315 (SPY 131.18) is the 61.8% retrace from current up leg - A leg. If it breaks, the Jan low will be re-tested. I will load 100 shares of SSO at SPY $131.18 and QLD at QQQQ $41.60.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Tuesday 2-5-2008
2 chart of S&P during 2000-2001 and 2007-2008. Each one has the fed rate cut.9:00 AM
Yesterday, the market went down more than 100 pts. It is a sizable down. Today, the future is down a lot. The current correction wave of A-B-C is starting at B wave down. The current A wave up in S&P is 1400-1370 = 130 points. The B correction is looking at 38.2% of 130 pts, which is, S&P at 1350 level.
Yesterday, the market went down more than 100 pts. It is a sizable down. Today, the future is down a lot. The current correction wave of A-B-C is starting at B wave down. The current A wave up in S&P is 1400-1370 = 130 points. The B correction is looking at 38.2% of 130 pts, which is, S&P at 1350 level.
12:45 PM
The S&P 1350 level is broken. Now, I am looking at S&P 1320 level. I believe that since the news - Service segment in recession, is so huge that the 1st lvl of support should be broken. Plus the today's volumes are above average in the wake of yesterday's 2/3 of normal volumes. The sell is intensifying.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Monday 2-4-2008
11:30 AM
The last 2 days were volatile, both went up in a big size. In both of the days, the market went down over 100 pts in the morning, and came back with more than 100 points gain in the afternoon. Basically, I marked them distribution days.
This morning, the pre-market was flat. Now it is down on .5% average. I guess it either starts the A-B-C wave B leg or rolling down. We should see it clearly. If the market close flat, I am gonna lean towards the rollover formation. If the market close sizable down, I will think this is the B leg down. If the market goes up. I will add short position.
The last 2 days were volatile, both went up in a big size. In both of the days, the market went down over 100 pts in the morning, and came back with more than 100 points gain in the afternoon. Basically, I marked them distribution days.
This morning, the pre-market was flat. Now it is down on .5% average. I guess it either starts the A-B-C wave B leg or rolling down. We should see it clearly. If the market close flat, I am gonna lean towards the rollover formation. If the market close sizable down, I will think this is the B leg down. If the market goes up. I will add short position.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Thursday 1-31-2008
9:20 AM
The future is down huge. It is the revenge of yesterday roll-over. Don't watch the market too closely today. Let it run. Watch spy 132, QQQQ 43.25, XHB 18.6, XLF 26.75. If they reach, consider unload short positions.
The future is down huge. It is the revenge of yesterday roll-over. Don't watch the market too closely today. Let it run. Watch spy 132, QQQQ 43.25, XHB 18.6, XLF 26.75. If they reach, consider unload short positions.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wednesday 1-30-2008
10:00 AM
The future was down .5%, it gapped open, now it is fading the gap. I think that market will go lower from now. But from now to the fed decision, it should trade in a narrow range.
8:30 PM
Fed cut rate 50 base points. The market went up 200 points, then moved down and wiped all the gain. It made a huge reverse.
The future was down .5%, it gapped open, now it is fading the gap. I think that market will go lower from now. But from now to the fed decision, it should trade in a narrow range.
8:30 PM
Fed cut rate 50 base points. The market went up 200 points, then moved down and wiped all the gain. It made a huge reverse.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Tuesday 1-29-2008
12:00 AM
The market opened high and going swings. At this moment, I really don't have a crystal ball. But it is going up to a level that is critical for long positions. So I am unloading all the longs at this level, and go long if it can break up. Otherwise, I will add short positions, if it goes down. Today's close will tell more.
2:20 PM
Today's action is swing up and down with a flag formation. Since it happened at the relative high level, I treat it as smart money selling signal. So I have unloaded all long positions with only 100 share of SSO left. My theory is that the current market low needs to be re-tested before any major upside movement happens.
The market opened high and going swings. At this moment, I really don't have a crystal ball. But it is going up to a level that is critical for long positions. So I am unloading all the longs at this level, and go long if it can break up. Otherwise, I will add short positions, if it goes down. Today's close will tell more.
2:20 PM
Today's action is swing up and down with a flag formation. Since it happened at the relative high level, I treat it as smart money selling signal. So I have unloaded all long positions with only 100 share of SSO left. My theory is that the current market low needs to be re-tested before any major upside movement happens.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Monday 1-28-2008
9:00 AM
The oversea market is sold off. China market down another 7%. Today's future market was lower, and now is improving. I believe a re-test to 50% retrace level is for sure. So just wait for a few minutes after the open for the uptrend to finish, then long puts on spy. There will be at a certain point, the low will show, by then, cover all the put positions, and leave short positions. If any strong can be felt, add long QLD positions.
2:25 PM
The market made a temp bottom and went up. I missed the obvious double bottom and had to hold all the short positions. There are a couple of reasons, but the major one was that I didn't pay too much attention on the double bottom and had a preemptive assumption/line/level, which is totally wrong.
The oversea market is sold off. China market down another 7%. Today's future market was lower, and now is improving. I believe a re-test to 50% retrace level is for sure. So just wait for a few minutes after the open for the uptrend to finish, then long puts on spy. There will be at a certain point, the low will show, by then, cover all the put positions, and leave short positions. If any strong can be felt, add long QLD positions.
2:25 PM
The market made a temp bottom and went up. I missed the obvious double bottom and had to hold all the short positions. There are a couple of reasons, but the major one was that I didn't pay too much attention on the double bottom and had a preemptive assumption/line/level, which is totally wrong.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Weekend 1-26-2008
This week is a very volitile week. All the DOW up and down in almost 1000 points. Due to the quick sell off, for next a couple of weeks, the market will consolidation within this range (1000 points)(qqqq from 41.6 to 48). In additional, the consolidation formation will be up trend flag/wedge. Since the range will be so big that any day trade should be profitable.
After this consolidation, the trend is still down.
After this consolidation, the trend is still down.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Friday 1-25-2008
9:00 AM
The market had a good rally yesterday, but the volume is troublesome. MSFT had a good quarter so 4Q is running up almost 1.8% in pre-market. But again, the experts are expecting the rollover to the down side. So far, my positions are heavily hedged. The only worry is the SSO bought at $74 away too high. I will load up 100 shares of SDS at market open today, and hold other long positions including MOO and PBW. For aapl's call, I will add a put position once this bounce is done. I expect it to end in early next month.
My currently holding also includes a put of 4Q and QID. It is very neutral at this moment.
12:30 PM
The market opened higher, but going lower.
In the very short term, the market will go lower (hours); but in short term (days), the market wants to go higher. So take a chance to sell 1/2 of the short positions today and tomorrow.
The market had a good rally yesterday, but the volume is troublesome. MSFT had a good quarter so 4Q is running up almost 1.8% in pre-market. But again, the experts are expecting the rollover to the down side. So far, my positions are heavily hedged. The only worry is the SSO bought at $74 away too high. I will load up 100 shares of SDS at market open today, and hold other long positions including MOO and PBW. For aapl's call, I will add a put position once this bounce is done. I expect it to end in early next month.
My currently holding also includes a put of 4Q and QID. It is very neutral at this moment.
12:30 PM
The market opened higher, but going lower.
In the very short term, the market will go lower (hours); but in short term (days), the market wants to go higher. So take a chance to sell 1/2 of the short positions today and tomorrow.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Thursday 1-24-2008
8:45 AM
The pre-market is up. It should confirm that the market has setup the temporarily bottom. This mid-term bounce should last for a couple of weeks. So I will be holding my longs and shorts, and trade QQQQ to the upside on daily bases.
The pre-market is up. It should confirm that the market has setup the temporarily bottom. This mid-term bounce should last for a couple of weeks. So I will be holding my longs and shorts, and trade QQQQ to the upside on daily bases.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Wednesday 1-23-2008
8:30 AM
Yesterday, the pre-market was low more than 500 points. Fed cut .75 points short term interest rate, and the market close around -130 points. The morning, the market is lower again. Apple's earning was okay, but its forecast was not good. It went down 12%. QQQQ future is lower than yesterday's low, which is a very bad signal. So I have to buy puts to hedge my accounts.
8:00 PM
It is a huge reserve. Dow went down more than 300 points, then went up close to 300 points. I believe as it went up too quick and too fast, it needs to give back. So, sell long position after 15 minutes at open. Reload at around 12:30 pm if the market is still strong, then sell around 2:50 pm. But actually I expect the market to sell off starting right around 10:00 am.
Basically, it is just a bear market rebounce. So sell to the strength.
Yesterday, the pre-market was low more than 500 points. Fed cut .75 points short term interest rate, and the market close around -130 points. The morning, the market is lower again. Apple's earning was okay, but its forecast was not good. It went down 12%. QQQQ future is lower than yesterday's low, which is a very bad signal. So I have to buy puts to hedge my accounts.
8:00 PM
It is a huge reserve. Dow went down more than 300 points, then went up close to 300 points. I believe as it went up too quick and too fast, it needs to give back. So, sell long position after 15 minutes at open. Reload at around 12:30 pm if the market is still strong, then sell around 2:50 pm. But actually I expect the market to sell off starting right around 10:00 am.
Basically, it is just a bear market rebounce. So sell to the strength.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Monday 1-21-2008
9:00 AM
Today is Federal holiday, and the market is closed. But the global market crashed. Each major market is down more than 4-5%. Basically, tomorrow open will be a crash open, so be prepared for crash. Study those crash pattern, and trade on it.
Alright, game plan for a next couple of days:
1. Strong short (puts) S&P and QQQQ at tomorrow's open. If there is no chance to take sizable profit before 1:00 pm; add puts on any strongness. If it provides plenty of opportunities, take profit (close all puts), and then go long (calls with small size and setup stop).
2. Watch out for possible down turn after 1 pm. If it goes up and turns down, close call positions if they are still profitable.
3. Wait for the uptrend, if it goes up again around 3 pm, load some calls; otherwise, if it is a confirmed down trend, do nothing.
3. If the 1st day closes lower, the next day will be the reverse. So put at the open after a bounce, then wait for reverse to close the puts and long at around noon time.
Overall rules:
1. Trade puts, but never hold it overnight.
2. Long calls (long term), if it can't be profitable, hold.
Today is Federal holiday, and the market is closed. But the global market crashed. Each major market is down more than 4-5%. Basically, tomorrow open will be a crash open, so be prepared for crash. Study those crash pattern, and trade on it.
Alright, game plan for a next couple of days:
1. Strong short (puts) S&P and QQQQ at tomorrow's open. If there is no chance to take sizable profit before 1:00 pm; add puts on any strongness. If it provides plenty of opportunities, take profit (close all puts), and then go long (calls with small size and setup stop).
2. Watch out for possible down turn after 1 pm. If it goes up and turns down, close call positions if they are still profitable.
3. Wait for the uptrend, if it goes up again around 3 pm, load some calls; otherwise, if it is a confirmed down trend, do nothing.
3. If the 1st day closes lower, the next day will be the reverse. So put at the open after a bounce, then wait for reverse to close the puts and long at around noon time.
Overall rules:
1. Trade puts, but never hold it overnight.
2. Long calls (long term), if it can't be profitable, hold.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Friday 1-18-2008
7:00 PM
Another down day. It is the OE day, market openen very high, +180 on the Dow; but close with -50 point.
The normal trend of bear market is high in the morning and low in the afternoon. So a safe way to do is 1) short in the morning and cover in the afternoon. Or 2) long in the afternoon and close in the next morning. I think as the bottom is closing, way 2) is a feasible way to do.
Markets Diary
Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,185 1,107 424
Declining 2,098 1,933 837
Unchanged 63 118 80
Total 3,346 3,158 1,341
Issues at
New 52 Week High 10 3 36
New 52 Week Low 625 485 229
Share Volume
Total 2,448,557,870 2,951,512,104 67,032,236
Advancing 973,883,780 1,054,329,858 15,430,891
Declining 1,455,117,200 1,854,098,132 31,159,245
Unchanged 19,556,890 43,084,114 20,442,100
Another down day. It is the OE day, market openen very high, +180 on the Dow; but close with -50 point.
The normal trend of bear market is high in the morning and low in the afternoon. So a safe way to do is 1) short in the morning and cover in the afternoon. Or 2) long in the afternoon and close in the next morning. I think as the bottom is closing, way 2) is a feasible way to do.
Markets Diary
Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,185 1,107 424
Declining 2,098 1,933 837
Unchanged 63 118 80
Total 3,346 3,158 1,341
Issues at
New 52 Week High 10 3 36
New 52 Week Low 625 485 229
Share Volume
Total 2,448,557,870 2,951,512,104 67,032,236
Advancing 973,883,780 1,054,329,858 15,430,891
Declining 1,455,117,200 1,854,098,132 31,159,245
Unchanged 19,556,890 43,084,114 20,442,100
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Thursday 1-17-2008
6:00 PM
The market was down huge, the DOW downs 300 points. Everybody is guessing the bottom, so do I. I believe the temp bottom is near, and went long in those 2 days. But now, taking a huge loss. I am glad that AAPL is strong.
The market was down huge, the DOW downs 300 points. Everybody is guessing the bottom, so do I. I believe the temp bottom is near, and went long in those 2 days. But now, taking a huge loss. I am glad that AAPL is strong.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Wednesday 1-16-2008
9:30 AM
The previous 2 days were huge down days, yesterday, DOW went down 277 points. This morning, the future was very negative at one point, the dow was down 110 points. I think it will be a pin setup for today. Yesterday afternoon I went long, bought QLD and SSO. Now, they are under water. I will hold those positions and will be no actions for today. If at the close, the market went up, it should be a good reverse, and then look for additional long positions.
The previous 2 days were huge down days, yesterday, DOW went down 277 points. This morning, the future was very negative at one point, the dow was down 110 points. I think it will be a pin setup for today. Yesterday afternoon I went long, bought QLD and SSO. Now, they are under water. I will hold those positions and will be no actions for today. If at the close, the market went up, it should be a good reverse, and then look for additional long positions.
Monday, January 14, 2008
三线开花的原理和运用
1、20日均线----股价中期走势的生命线（20日均线的技术含义）：
20均线在低位拐弯向上，往往意味着股票价格走势是中线上升行情。20日均线在高位拐弯向下，往往意味这是中期调整趋势，投资者对此股票不介入或寻机出局。
2、20日均线的作用：
① 确定中期趋势。20日均线低位拐弯，中期趋势的跟踪线。
② 确定买入点。股票价格低位放量上涨突破20日均线，缩量回跌调整到20日均线时的买入点。
③ 确定卖点。大多数情况下（除急庄爆涨外）在股票价格远离20日均线20％－30％之间获利了结是个不错的卖点。
④ 确定止损点。大幅上涨后20日均线拐弯向下时，应短期止损离场出局或不介入
120日均线--半年线--脊梁线
120日均线的作用：
（1）助涨作用.当120日均线处于上涨状态时，有助涨作用
2）重压作用。当120日均线处于下降趋势时，120日均线对股票价格走势具有重压作用。
（3）确定买入时机。利用120日均线处于上涨趋势时，对股票价格走势具有的助涨作用，来确定买点。即以120日均线作为支撑线，当股价回跌到120日附近时买入。
250日均线--年线--牛熊线
250日均线的趋势方向和股票价格升破或跌破250日均线，有着重要的技术分析意义。如果市场中有一大批股票出现这样的走势，说明就要有一波行情了，或者市场中就要出现新的炒作题材了。
250日均线的作用与120日均线的作用非常类似。
支撑作用：即处于上升状态的250日均线对股价有支撑作用。
压力作用：即处于下降状态的250日均线对股价有压力作用，突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。因此在250日均线走平或向上之前，都不能介入，否则会屡买屡套，损失了金钱和时间
如何判别和确认股票价格升破250日均线对股价的压力开始走牛？
（1）突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。带量升破250均线的压力和250均线已调头向上，是判断股票走牛的关键。此时股价即使再度跌破250均线其跌幅亦往往有限，可以认为是股票价格走牛的回档走势。
（2）形态特征：
250日均线跌势趋缓，股价放量突破250日均线的压力，已经在250日均线之上运行。股价即使随后跌破250日均线，但成交量同时萎缩，显示卖压极小。股价重新放量回升、站稳在250日均线之上时，表明股价已探明底部，此时可放心介入。
20日与120日均线金叉穿越
(1)20日均线有效金叉120日均线是股票发生转势的买入信号？有效是指叉后量
(2)当股票价格走势上穿了120日均线，成交量有所放大，说明了股价已经摆脱了120日均线的压力，股价走势有趋活的迹象。（股价上穿）
(3)随后20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉，就是确认了这种趋势，这时就是买入股票的信号。（20日均线上穿）
(4)穿越时或穿越后若有成交量明显放大的配合，则这个买入信号的可靠性是极高的。
(5)当20日均线有效金叉120日均线时，往往意味着随后有一段不小的上升行情
20日均线金叉120日均线有哪几种形态？
① 回头望月.<股价回落盘整>
其技术走势形态特征为：
1>股价突破120日均线压力，在120日线上盘整.
2>当20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉买入点时，股票价格走势缩量回落也宣告结束，开始形成上涨的转点；
3>随后股票成交量放大，股票价格走势开始形成大幅的上涨行情。
如何确认回头望月的金叉穿越是否有效？
需要看随后一两个交易日是否有成交量放大的配合，若叉后有量，则回头望月形态成立
② 快马加鞭。<股价高位横盘>
股票价格前期已经穿越了120日均线的压制，处于盘整的走势，此时20日均线正在穿越120日均线。股价升破120日均线的压力后，往往并不回跌调整，多是高位横向整理，等待着20日均线穿越120均线，而在20日均线穿越20均线的叉点日，出现的是放量拉升的状态。
③ 顺水推舟。<股不回跌,不横盘><容易失败的形态>
当20日均线穿越120均线，形成金叉穿越时，其股价形态，并不象快马加鞭那样迫不急待的上涨，也不象回头望月走势那样有明显的回跌砍确认走势，而是顺其自然的让20日均线与120均线形成金叉穿越，在穿越后成交量往往出现温和和放大，股票价格走势也不象前两种形态那样出现快速上涨。
顺水推舟的走势形态，给出的买入信号可操作的时间长，股票价位较低，买入的股价安全性较好。但这样的买点需要有一定的耐性，顺水推舟的技术形态在随后的走势中变数较多，有些会出现失败的走势，应引起注意。
如何判断顺水推舟形态的成立？
要依靠股价和成交量的关系，尤其是有没有叉后量出现。
如何操作顺水推舟技术形态的股票？
顺水推舟形成后投资者的参考线就是120均线破不破？20日均线的走势方向是投资者的方向。
20日均线上穿120日均线总结。
三种穿越形态都需要成交量的确认。当股票在发出叉点买入信号时买入了股票，如何判别我们买入的股票就会走出这三种形态来呢？只需观察随后几天的成交量的变化，若成交量有放大，形成了叉后量现象，则说明你操作成功。若随后的成交量没有明显放大，则说明你买入的这只股票并不是现在市场的热点，骑大黑马可能性比较低，但获些小利离场还是可以的。投资者在分析单个股票走势图时，若发现即将大量出现20日均线穿越120日均线前期走势的股票时，往往意味着不久将有一波大行情出现。
抄底技巧----120跳马
1、120跳马的形态定义？
在前面的股价走势中，股价和20日均线120均线形成了顺水推舟、回头望月的走势形态，股票价格走势经过一定幅度的放量上涨后进入盘整过程，无量连续阴线下跌，突然在某一价位（即120日均线附近）受到强支撑，股票价格走势又开始放量上涨，随后还有大幅的上涨行情。
2、120跳马的形态的先期条件？
（1）股票价格的前期走势，应形成了20日均线穿越120日均线的黄金交叉走势形态。
（2）由于穿越后成交量并没有放得很大，股价没有大幅上涨。
（3）穿越后，出现的是缓慢盘升行情或横盘整理的走势，这是跳马形态必不可少的。
（4）无量的连续小中阴线的下跌。“无量”说明主力并不是在出货，实际是庄家的洗盘动作。
120跳马先期形态的作用？
(1）是股价蓄势的过程；
（2）是调整均线系统的过程；
（3）往往是庄家主力在耐心吸筹的过程。
120跳马中250日均线的作用也非常重要？
当250日均线与120日均线相距不远，与120日均线形成双支撑，这样，股价触到120日均线附近反弹，则更加有力可靠。
20日均线与120均线形成死叉的警示信号 （包括大盘和个股）
提示：预示着大暴跌即将来临。20线触120线反弹就是120跑马，向下死叉则是警示信号
20日与250日均线交叉的市场变幻
提示：20日与250日均线的交叉关系非常类似于20日120日均线的关系
20日均线与250日均线死亡交叉的滞后特性？ 即不能用该死亡交叉来预测股票价格还要下跌.
20日均线突破250日均线时的黄金交叉点是最佳的买入点。
在形态特征上，20日均线与250日均线形成的金叉穿越的技术走势中，与20日均线金叉穿越120日均线形成的技术走势非常的相似，也有“回头望月”和“顺水推舟”，而出现“快马加鞭”的技术走势不太常见。
1、三线开花的含义？
20、120、250这三条均线经过金叉穿越后，像开喇叭花一样，形成极度分离的多头排列的特殊的技术形态，这就叫三线开花。
2.三线开花的具体形态？
并线三线开花、顺向三线开花和逆向三线开花。这三种技术走势形态都十分有效的预测股票价格走势的技术形态
1>并线三线开花？其形态一旦成立有较大的获利空间，是大黑马的摇篮<120日和250日极度平行状态>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是处于极度接近的平行状态，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线的技术走势，形成均线的金叉穿越。
穿越后如果股票价格走势出现大幅放量的上涨行情，就预示并线三线开花走势成立，并将预示均线系统将要“开大花”，其隐含的技术意义就是股票价格将要大幅上涨。
2>顺向三线开花？其形态一旦成立也有较大的获利空间<120日和250日金叉先>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是顺向交叉的状态，即120日均线从下向上穿越250日均线，形成两条长期均线的黄金交叉，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线交叉点的技术走势形态。（交叉点即买入信号）
形成顺向三线开花的技术走势，并且在穿越的过程中成交量有效放大，就预示顺向三线开花走势成立。
3>逆向三线开花？一旦形态成立，预示股票将要走牛<120日和250日死叉先>
逆向三线开花，是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线形成死亡交叉，即120日均线下穿250日均线，此时20日均线由下向上穿越这个交叉点的技术走势形态。
形成逆向三线开花形态，预示股票将要走牛，但在20日均线穿越120日均线和250日线交叉点时，应有成交量有效放大的支持，这样逆向三线开花形态才成立。
是不是所有的金叉点都可买入股票?
特殊的均线穿越金叉点不是买点，反而是卖点的走势形态。
首先，是行情突然暴发，形成暴涨行情，当20日均线上穿120日均线和250日均线即形成金叉穿越时，股价也到了最高位；
其次，其前期的走势形态既不是“回头望月”也不是“顺水推舟”和“快马加鞭”，若说是“快马加鞭”则没有“突破大均线后的盘整走势”形态，所以这是一种特殊形态；
第三，这种金叉穿越形态中，有时20日均线并不是顺其自然的与大均线形成金叉穿越，而是被强行的“提带”与大均线来形成“金叉穿越”。有一种强扭瓜的味道，由于这种“均线金叉穿越”使改变的均线形态变成了目的，既然目的已经达到，也就失去了目标，因此这种金叉穿越点就不是买点反而是卖点了。
120日均线与250日均线金叉买点
120日与250日均线的金叉买点获利技巧（短线快速暴利买点）:120日均线上穿250日均线，形成黄金交叉，此时若股票价格反而是下跌状态，并回跌到120日与250日均线的交叉点附近时，这是一个短线快速获暴利的绝佳买入点。
长牛股的基础：两线顺向火车轨
当120日均线上穿250日均线后，120日均线和250日均线呈现顺向排列走势，即120日均线在上，250日均线在下，出现多头排列所以叫顺向排列。在以后的价格走势中，股票价格在120日均线之上，120日均线与250日均线都呈现平稳的上涨走势，两条线近乎于平行线，这样的股票价格走势图形，叫做“两线顺向火车轨走势”。
90周线特殊形态：周线三线开花
周线三线开花，是以周线系统中的主要均线参数即5周线、20周线和90周线为主，构成类似于1250日线系统的“三线开花”形态时，这时的周线走势形态就叫做“周线三线开花”。也就是说20周线与90周线处于并线状态或顺向交叉状态，此时5周线几乎同时上穿20周线和90周线，形成了一个多头发散的均线排列组合状态。
周线三线开花的重要使用技巧：在使用日线三丝开花时，注意周线三线开花是否也支持。
20均线在低位拐弯向上，往往意味着股票价格走势是中线上升行情。20日均线在高位拐弯向下，往往意味这是中期调整趋势，投资者对此股票不介入或寻机出局。
2、20日均线的作用：
① 确定中期趋势。20日均线低位拐弯，中期趋势的跟踪线。
② 确定买入点。股票价格低位放量上涨突破20日均线，缩量回跌调整到20日均线时的买入点。
③ 确定卖点。大多数情况下（除急庄爆涨外）在股票价格远离20日均线20％－30％之间获利了结是个不错的卖点。
④ 确定止损点。大幅上涨后20日均线拐弯向下时，应短期止损离场出局或不介入
120日均线--半年线--脊梁线
120日均线的作用：
（1）助涨作用.当120日均线处于上涨状态时，有助涨作用
2）重压作用。当120日均线处于下降趋势时，120日均线对股票价格走势具有重压作用。
（3）确定买入时机。利用120日均线处于上涨趋势时，对股票价格走势具有的助涨作用，来确定买点。即以120日均线作为支撑线，当股价回跌到120日附近时买入。
250日均线--年线--牛熊线
250日均线的趋势方向和股票价格升破或跌破250日均线，有着重要的技术分析意义。如果市场中有一大批股票出现这样的走势，说明就要有一波行情了，或者市场中就要出现新的炒作题材了。
250日均线的作用与120日均线的作用非常类似。
支撑作用：即处于上升状态的250日均线对股价有支撑作用。
压力作用：即处于下降状态的250日均线对股价有压力作用，突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。因此在250日均线走平或向上之前，都不能介入，否则会屡买屡套，损失了金钱和时间
如何判别和确认股票价格升破250日均线对股价的压力开始走牛？
（1）突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。带量升破250均线的压力和250均线已调头向上，是判断股票走牛的关键。此时股价即使再度跌破250均线其跌幅亦往往有限，可以认为是股票价格走牛的回档走势。
（2）形态特征：
250日均线跌势趋缓，股价放量突破250日均线的压力，已经在250日均线之上运行。股价即使随后跌破250日均线，但成交量同时萎缩，显示卖压极小。股价重新放量回升、站稳在250日均线之上时，表明股价已探明底部，此时可放心介入。
20日与120日均线金叉穿越
(1)20日均线有效金叉120日均线是股票发生转势的买入信号？有效是指叉后量
(2)当股票价格走势上穿了120日均线，成交量有所放大，说明了股价已经摆脱了120日均线的压力，股价走势有趋活的迹象。（股价上穿）
(3)随后20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉，就是确认了这种趋势，这时就是买入股票的信号。（20日均线上穿）
(4)穿越时或穿越后若有成交量明显放大的配合，则这个买入信号的可靠性是极高的。
(5)当20日均线有效金叉120日均线时，往往意味着随后有一段不小的上升行情
20日均线金叉120日均线有哪几种形态？
① 回头望月.<股价回落盘整>
其技术走势形态特征为：
1>股价突破120日均线压力，在120日线上盘整.
2>当20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉买入点时，股票价格走势缩量回落也宣告结束，开始形成上涨的转点；
3>随后股票成交量放大，股票价格走势开始形成大幅的上涨行情。
如何确认回头望月的金叉穿越是否有效？
需要看随后一两个交易日是否有成交量放大的配合，若叉后有量，则回头望月形态成立
② 快马加鞭。<股价高位横盘>
股票价格前期已经穿越了120日均线的压制，处于盘整的走势，此时20日均线正在穿越120日均线。股价升破120日均线的压力后，往往并不回跌调整，多是高位横向整理，等待着20日均线穿越120均线，而在20日均线穿越20均线的叉点日，出现的是放量拉升的状态。
③ 顺水推舟。<股不回跌,不横盘><容易失败的形态>
当20日均线穿越120均线，形成金叉穿越时，其股价形态，并不象快马加鞭那样迫不急待的上涨，也不象回头望月走势那样有明显的回跌砍确认走势，而是顺其自然的让20日均线与120均线形成金叉穿越，在穿越后成交量往往出现温和和放大，股票价格走势也不象前两种形态那样出现快速上涨。
顺水推舟的走势形态，给出的买入信号可操作的时间长，股票价位较低，买入的股价安全性较好。但这样的买点需要有一定的耐性，顺水推舟的技术形态在随后的走势中变数较多，有些会出现失败的走势，应引起注意。
如何判断顺水推舟形态的成立？
要依靠股价和成交量的关系，尤其是有没有叉后量出现。
如何操作顺水推舟技术形态的股票？
顺水推舟形成后投资者的参考线就是120均线破不破？20日均线的走势方向是投资者的方向。
20日均线上穿120日均线总结。
三种穿越形态都需要成交量的确认。当股票在发出叉点买入信号时买入了股票，如何判别我们买入的股票就会走出这三种形态来呢？只需观察随后几天的成交量的变化，若成交量有放大，形成了叉后量现象，则说明你操作成功。若随后的成交量没有明显放大，则说明你买入的这只股票并不是现在市场的热点，骑大黑马可能性比较低，但获些小利离场还是可以的。投资者在分析单个股票走势图时，若发现即将大量出现20日均线穿越120日均线前期走势的股票时，往往意味着不久将有一波大行情出现。
抄底技巧----120跳马
1、120跳马的形态定义？
在前面的股价走势中，股价和20日均线120均线形成了顺水推舟、回头望月的走势形态，股票价格走势经过一定幅度的放量上涨后进入盘整过程，无量连续阴线下跌，突然在某一价位（即120日均线附近）受到强支撑，股票价格走势又开始放量上涨，随后还有大幅的上涨行情。
2、120跳马的形态的先期条件？
（1）股票价格的前期走势，应形成了20日均线穿越120日均线的黄金交叉走势形态。
（2）由于穿越后成交量并没有放得很大，股价没有大幅上涨。
（3）穿越后，出现的是缓慢盘升行情或横盘整理的走势，这是跳马形态必不可少的。
（4）无量的连续小中阴线的下跌。“无量”说明主力并不是在出货，实际是庄家的洗盘动作。
120跳马先期形态的作用？
(1）是股价蓄势的过程；
（2）是调整均线系统的过程；
（3）往往是庄家主力在耐心吸筹的过程。
120跳马中250日均线的作用也非常重要？
当250日均线与120日均线相距不远，与120日均线形成双支撑，这样，股价触到120日均线附近反弹，则更加有力可靠。
20日均线与120均线形成死叉的警示信号 （包括大盘和个股）
提示：预示着大暴跌即将来临。20线触120线反弹就是120跑马，向下死叉则是警示信号
20日与250日均线交叉的市场变幻
提示：20日与250日均线的交叉关系非常类似于20日120日均线的关系
20日均线与250日均线死亡交叉的滞后特性？ 即不能用该死亡交叉来预测股票价格还要下跌.
20日均线突破250日均线时的黄金交叉点是最佳的买入点。
在形态特征上，20日均线与250日均线形成的金叉穿越的技术走势中，与20日均线金叉穿越120日均线形成的技术走势非常的相似，也有“回头望月”和“顺水推舟”，而出现“快马加鞭”的技术走势不太常见。
1、三线开花的含义？
20、120、250这三条均线经过金叉穿越后，像开喇叭花一样，形成极度分离的多头排列的特殊的技术形态，这就叫三线开花。
2.三线开花的具体形态？
并线三线开花、顺向三线开花和逆向三线开花。这三种技术走势形态都十分有效的预测股票价格走势的技术形态
1>并线三线开花？其形态一旦成立有较大的获利空间，是大黑马的摇篮<120日和250日极度平行状态>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是处于极度接近的平行状态，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线的技术走势，形成均线的金叉穿越。
穿越后如果股票价格走势出现大幅放量的上涨行情，就预示并线三线开花走势成立，并将预示均线系统将要“开大花”，其隐含的技术意义就是股票价格将要大幅上涨。
2>顺向三线开花？其形态一旦成立也有较大的获利空间<120日和250日金叉先>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是顺向交叉的状态，即120日均线从下向上穿越250日均线，形成两条长期均线的黄金交叉，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线交叉点的技术走势形态。（交叉点即买入信号）
形成顺向三线开花的技术走势，并且在穿越的过程中成交量有效放大，就预示顺向三线开花走势成立。
3>逆向三线开花？一旦形态成立，预示股票将要走牛<120日和250日死叉先>
逆向三线开花，是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线形成死亡交叉，即120日均线下穿250日均线，此时20日均线由下向上穿越这个交叉点的技术走势形态。
形成逆向三线开花形态，预示股票将要走牛，但在20日均线穿越120日均线和250日线交叉点时，应有成交量有效放大的支持，这样逆向三线开花形态才成立。
是不是所有的金叉点都可买入股票?
特殊的均线穿越金叉点不是买点，反而是卖点的走势形态。
首先，是行情突然暴发，形成暴涨行情，当20日均线上穿120日均线和250日均线即形成金叉穿越时，股价也到了最高位；
其次，其前期的走势形态既不是“回头望月”也不是“顺水推舟”和“快马加鞭”，若说是“快马加鞭”则没有“突破大均线后的盘整走势”形态，所以这是一种特殊形态；
第三，这种金叉穿越形态中，有时20日均线并不是顺其自然的与大均线形成金叉穿越，而是被强行的“提带”与大均线来形成“金叉穿越”。有一种强扭瓜的味道，由于这种“均线金叉穿越”使改变的均线形态变成了目的，既然目的已经达到，也就失去了目标，因此这种金叉穿越点就不是买点反而是卖点了。
120日均线与250日均线金叉买点
120日与250日均线的金叉买点获利技巧（短线快速暴利买点）:120日均线上穿250日均线，形成黄金交叉，此时若股票价格反而是下跌状态，并回跌到120日与250日均线的交叉点附近时，这是一个短线快速获暴利的绝佳买入点。
长牛股的基础：两线顺向火车轨
当120日均线上穿250日均线后，120日均线和250日均线呈现顺向排列走势，即120日均线在上，250日均线在下，出现多头排列所以叫顺向排列。在以后的价格走势中，股票价格在120日均线之上，120日均线与250日均线都呈现平稳的上涨走势，两条线近乎于平行线，这样的股票价格走势图形，叫做“两线顺向火车轨走势”。
90周线特殊形态：周线三线开花
周线三线开花，是以周线系统中的主要均线参数即5周线、20周线和90周线为主，构成类似于1250日线系统的“三线开花”形态时，这时的周线走势形态就叫做“周线三线开花”。也就是说20周线与90周线处于并线状态或顺向交叉状态，此时5周线几乎同时上穿20周线和90周线，形成了一个多头发散的均线排列组合状态。
周线三线开花的重要使用技巧：在使用日线三丝开花时，注意周线三线开花是否也支持。
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Weekend 1-12-2008
For this month so far, I am wiped out again. I am back to zero and start over again for this month, which means, 0% gain so far.
Next week's game plan, keep it netural. I don't know if it will go up or down, since the TAs look flat. As I will be in training for Monday & Tueday. No trade for those 2 days.
1. Long EWZ and EWT, Short indices & stocks like PCU
2. Long indices and keep shorting RIMM.
Next week's game plan, keep it netural. I don't know if it will go up or down, since the TAs look flat. As I will be in training for Monday & Tueday. No trade for those 2 days.
1. Long EWZ and EWT, Short indices & stocks like PCU
2. Long indices and keep shorting RIMM.
世界上100个最热门的Web2.0网站
影片
* YouTube：是一個可以讓使用者免費上傳、觀賞、分享影片短片的熱門影片共享網站
* Meta Cafe：得到最好的網路上影片-搞笑錄影，驚奇短片，罕見電影
* Vimeo：分享你自己剪輯的短片。上傳你用自己的數位相機，手機，或攝影機拍攝後剪輯的短片，並透過Vimeo與大家分享。
* Daily Motion ︰發佈、標籤、整合並分享你的影片剪輯短片。
* Imeem：imeem 是一個社會媒體服務性質的網站。使用者互相觀看、傳送、分享各種各樣的媒體類型，包括部落格、圖片、音樂、影片。換個方式來說，imeem 是以媒體為中心的社群服務網站，在另一層意義上來說，為使用者提供了線上內容分享服務。
* ClipShack：ClipShack 是錄影愛好者的社群，使用者可以將自己製作的影片上傳給人們觀賞、討論，可以與朋友、家人共享短片，可以將這裡的影片放入你的部落格。
* vSocial：用最快，最方便的方法上傳、觀看、分享影片短片。
* Jumpcut：最好的線上製作、整合、分享電影和幻燈片的網站。這是絕無僅有的一個網站。
* Video Bomb：可過濾出網路上最熱門的影片短片︰您只要按一下『Incoming!』就能找到您最想要的東西。
* eyeSpot：拍攝、整合、分享你的影片。線上使用eyespot混合器來編輯並整合你的影片，音樂和圖片。免費與世界共享你的影片。
* revver：上傳，共享影片。
* Avidbeauty：Avid Beauty 是提供給iPod使用者的娛樂社群。提供下載到iPod上的部落格。同時為會員提供 Flickr 圖片， YouTube 影片和 LiveJournal integration 。
音樂
* last.fm：Last.fm是透過搜尋和增加你最喜歡的歌手來形成風格的動態音樂網站 。建立你自己的音樂資料庫並透過搜尋來尋找和你擁有相似音樂資料庫的同好。
* Musicovery：根據心情來發現新的歌曲，透過免費的網路收音機來瀏覽不同風格和時代的音樂。
* read.io：Read.io將RSS feeds轉換成Broadcast，由TextToSpeech轉播. 多語言支援.
* MusicStrands：使用MusicStrands搜尋新音樂。聽取片段，然後標出你不想購買的歌曲，或者在指定地點標出你想要購買的歌曲。接著從不同的賣主那裡購買你想要的音樂。
* PODZINGER：世界上第一個音樂，影片搜尋引擎。
* Upto11：Upto11使用標籤和隊列向您推薦新音樂。你可以建立個人工作頁面，分享你的推薦，標籤，播放清單。
* Pandora：Pandora可以透過你以前和現在的喜好來幫助你尋找並發現新的音樂。
即時通信
* Meebo：可以讓您收到任何地方的來訊息，支援 msn、 yahoo、 aol/aim、 google talk (gtalk)、jabber和icq。
* Joopz：允許使用者從網路上向個人及團體傳送簡訊，同時可以直接從網路上收到來自收件人來自個人電腦或 Mac 的回覆。Joopz web 的簡訊可以從世界上所有可以上網的設備上發給任何美國或加拿大的手機使用者。
* campfire：提供簡易的網路上商務聊天室。Campfire允許檔案共享，編輯，製作，為使用者提供一個安全的，密碼保護的聊天室。
* Goowy：提供免費網頁和flash電子郵件服務。使用者可以即時通訊，傳送電子郵件，聊天，更多。
* Gizmo：Gizmo Project使用你的電腦連線（寬頻或撥接），來與其他電腦使用者打電話。只要按一下滑鼠，你就可以和在地球任何地方的朋友，家人，同事通話，就是這麼簡單。你們可以清楚的聊天，聊多久都可以，免費﹗
* eBuddy：為所有人、所有地區提供網路上簡訊服務。
* e-messenger：e-Messenger 是一種方便使用者在不用安裝任何Plug-In或 Java 程式就可以同MSN、AOL 和Yahoo使用者聊天的應用軟體。當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
* ILOVEIM：eBuddy是線上提供 MSN、Yahoo 和 AIM (AOL)簡訊的網站.當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
圖片
* Flickr：最好的儲存、搜尋、整理和分享您的圖片的地方
* Zooomr：舉世最好的線上分享，搜尋，儲存，整理照片的網站。
* Slide：
* zotozoto：
* 23HQ：你的圖片不是和你喜歡的人分享，而是儲存在電腦硬碟上嗎？
* Mybloop：MyBloop- 免費共享圖片，音樂，影片。儲存量無限制，無須安裝軟體。
部落格
* Blogger：可以快速發表你的想法，與人們交流，更多。
* Weblogs, Inc：透過產業環境，創造使用者可以分享的產品。
* BlogCode：BlogCode.com是一個以StoryCode.com為模板，以快速、簡易、直覺的模式推薦部落格的網站。用它，你可以以你最喜歡的日誌（甚至你自己的日誌）為原點，來找到…
* blo.gs：透過這個網頁和電子郵件，你可以密切關注你最喜歡的日誌。你甚至可以在旁邊製作一個部落格清單清單，這樣你就可以知道哪些你喜歡的部落格更新了.
* BlogLines：免費網路上搜尋，訂閱，製作，分享新聞和部落格以及豐富的網站內容的網站。
書籤
* Digg：Digg 主要靠使用者自行加入內容。所有的內容都會被送到這個網站去分享、發現、加書籤，支援你所喜歡的文章。
* del.icio.us：社群性書籤管理器。你可以將書籤加入你的清單並將其加以分類。
* Reddit：Reddit可以搜尋網路上最新，最流行的書籍。輸入你正在看的書籍的連線，reddit 就能知道你喜歡什麼類型的書。
* StumbleUpon：StumbleUpon透過按一下頻率分析群眾對書的質量的評價。當你猶豫的時候，可以看看和你愛好相似的朋友們喜歡的書。
* Blinklist：真正的人們共享興趣的的網頁清單。為人們喜歡的，或準備稍後收藏的網站寫出了評價。
* Blummy：一個透過你的書籤工具欄，快速連線你喜歡的網頁的免費工具。在Blummy 上增加或製作幾個小Plug-In後，你幾乎可以做任何事︰增加圖片到Flickr， 增加站點到del.icio.us，在WIkipedia看文章，從上百個”blummlets”書籤中選擇你喜歡的，或者製作你自己的書籤。
* Techcrunch：TechCrunch是關於Web 2.0的產品及公司的部落格，大部分（技術分析）文章都是Michael Arrington所寫. 這個部落格第一次開始發表文章是在2005年6月11日。
* Furl：用Furl的簡易書籤，可以從所有網站連線你最喜歡的網頁書籤。透過Furl可以方便的儲存、做筆記、分享你儲存的連線、或瀏覽最熱門的書籤，來找到最新的或有意思的內容。
* Spurl：使用Spurl的免費線上書籤服務和搜尋引擎，你決不會再次無故無法進行網頁連線。只需按一下書籤本，Spurl就能快速儲存網址，同時透過您的喜好來推薦新文章。
* Trailfire：用於寫作，分享的軟體。
VOIP（網路電話）
* Jajah：jah是網路電話提供者，由澳洲人Roman Scharf和Daniel Mattes製作於2005年01月。Jajah 的總部位於美國加洲的Mountain View，和盧森堡。Jajah還有一個位於以色列的開發中心。
* skype：Skype可以免費下載，免費呼叫他人。Skype是IP語音軟體界的老大。
* Private Phone：擁有一個免費的當地語音電話號碼和訊息，你就可以線上查詢任何電話。
遊戲
* Trendio：Trendio.com 是一個線上的市場預測網站，使用者不是用真正的錢從公司購買股票，而是用虛擬貨幣購買有可靠新聞的項目的股票。可用到的內容包括時事政治，體育和娛樂。新聞中這些內容出現的越多，股票的價值就越高。目前這個網站使用大約三千個搜尋，來測量這些詞的價值.
* GameSnips：digg風格的線上遊戲清單，可以選擇最近更新的遊戲清單，或按一下率排列的清單。
* Pictaps：Roxik Pictaps - 畫一個小人，然後看（控制）他在3D界面中跳舞。
* Broadcast Game：這個廣播遊戲的目的是︰透過使用者所在的方位，把所有的電路和網路終端連線。而你需要做的僅僅是按一下或輪流按一下電路、終端，或網路中心。
* Pikipimp.com：想過要把圖片增加到你的相冊中去嗎？使用Pikpimp程式可以方便的將網路上任何圖片增加到相冊中。儲存相冊後就可以自由的將其加入你自己的網頁了。
* Mainada：喜歡畫漫畫和素描嗎？
wiki(維基百科）
* Wikipedia：最大的免費網路多語言支援百科全書。超過200萬個條目，並且數量持續增加中。
* LittleWiki：你可以在LittleWiki網站上建立公眾的或私人的維基網頁。Wiki是所有人都可以登入並編輯內容的網站，也就是說你可以編入和編輯所有你想增加的訊息，任意閱讀其他人編入的訊息。
* Wetpaint：Wetpaint動力網站集合眾人的智慧。Wetpaint的主要優勢在於允許所有人 特別是沒有技術能力的人 和有興趣，有激情的人一起，來創造並建設網站. 為了讓任何人都可以登入並編輯這個網站，Wetpaint連線了同種類型中最好的部落格、論壇及社群網站。
* JotSpot：使用者可以WYSIWYG編輯器來連線Jotspot的安全維基綜合網站，建設並分享這個網站。透過安裝各種各樣的應用軟體-項目管理器，公司目錄、Wiki、部落格、論壇投票、日曆等-來完善你的維基內容，然後邀請他人來投稿。
* PBWiki：製作一個免費的，密碼保護的Wiki網站就跟做一個花生醬三文治一樣容易。輕鬆上傳HTML，將檔案連線入你的網頁，合併RSS，等等。
辦公工具
* Zoho Office Suite：線上Word Processor（文字處理器）。
* Google Docs & Spreadsheets：使用Google Docs & Spreadsheets，您可以：
*
o 使用我們的線上編輯器來編排檔案，檢查拼寫，等等
o 上傳Word、OpenOffice、RTF、 HTML或text檔案
o 下載…
* Num Sum：簡易的網路共享電子製表軟體。
* Dictinary：線上字典。
* notifyr.org：Notifyr是一個任何人都可以輕鬆使用的工具，使用它，您可以每天在世界範圍內，輕鬆快速的接收所有網站的最新更新的檔案。網路螞蟻出了新股票？或新產品上市訊息？ 永遠為您提供最好的，免費的訊息。
* ThinkFree Office：你是否希望過可以在Linux系統上編輯Excel電子製表軟體？你是否希望過可以給同事看一份在電腦上的陳述，而不是用Powerpoint製作的？你是否希望過可以…
* Numly：提供web 2.0下一代的版權和DRM數位憑證。
* gOffice：免費的線上文字處理軟體，可輸出pdf或html格式的信件，允許個性化信紙模板。
RSS服務
* FeedBurner：FeedBurner為部落格、Broadcast、商業出版社擁有的內容創造更高的價值。我們將以高級feed管理技術，和熟練的期刊訂閱的投遞技巧，忠實的為您服務。
* Feed Digest：Feed Digest支援RSS和Atom feeds的剖析，再生及重新架構。你可以使用它將RSS或Atom feeds的內容轉移到你的網站。
* Attensa：Attensa, Inc.是一個製造RSS閱讀器，提供線上RSS聚合器，企業RSS服務和RSS軟體自動智能投遞的軟體公司。
* Tiny Tiny RSS：Tiny Tiny RSS是以網路的新聞feed網站為基礎。透過它你可以閱讀任何地區的新聞，並且它給人的感覺就像桌面的一個應用程式一樣。
* Feed43：免費線上（在不影響您工作的狀態下）轉換網頁為RSS feed。
* Feed Mailer：直接向您傳送電子郵件。(感謝 John)
電子郵件
* Gmail：是一種實驗性質的網路電子郵件，建立它的目的在於可以讓你永遠沒有必要刪除郵件，並且總是可以找到你想找到的郵件。
* 30 Gigs：30Gigs.com是只有接到邀請才能註冊的網路電子郵件。想想看，足足30G的空間。
* Zookoda：專門提供給用電子郵件來行銷的部落格。Zookoda以傳送電子郵件的方法，為您部落格的訪客提供您的部落格的每日，每周或每月摘要。
* Sprout：為您管理電子郵件銷售和服務業務。不需要IT部門，郵件屋可以幫您整理郵件並提供回覆建議，節約您的時間，並讓您與您的客戶保持緊密的聯繫。不需要做任何設置，只需幾分鐘就可以迅速啟動。
* Gawab：提供有特色的電子郵件服務，支援POP/SMTP.
新聞
* NewsGator：在同一個地方就可以閱讀所有你喜歡的新聞，網頁和部落格。
* newsvine.com：用Newsvine追蹤突發新聞：先在”The Wire”上閱讀AP和ESPN上的一連串相關新聞，然後在”The Vine”上閱讀使用者發表的內容和專欄。接著透過評論或投票與其他讀者交流，最後在Newsvine上寫或者改進自己的專欄。
* Gabbr：Gabbr是一個社群新聞和部落格網路。使用者可以保存和共享他們喜歡的新聞摘要和部落格日誌。
* wired：新聞網站和期刊，涵蓋了技術，文化，商務，政治等方面的新聞。
* Clipmarks：線上新聞焦點集?
檔案共享
* Box.Net：免費線上儲存、分享檔案的網站。您可以在我們的網路硬碟上儲存，瀏覽，分享檔案，也可以檢索檔案，圖片，檔案
* AllPeers：無限制的私人網路硬碟。任意分享私人圖片。不需要記憶密碼，沒有公用登入通道。不需要上傳就可以分享你的影片-節省主機內存，節約時間。私有並且安全。沒有間諜Plug-In，沒有廣告Plug-In，沒有討厭的廣告。
* MailBigFile：提供可以共享檔案的網路硬碟。
其他
* Live：微軟的Web 2.0入口網站 。
* LinkedIn：類似Facebook，為商業業務人員提供。用它為自己建立一個商業網，來增加尋致毢捅粌l佣的可能性，或使用它來與重要商務客戶保持聯繫。
* BaseCamp：簡單的項目管理，黑清單，記數器，時間線，檔案共享，日曆，等等。Basecamp適用於為大小項目的負責人，提供解決關於交流，合作，組織的方法。
* Side Job Track：為獨立承包商提供工作跟蹤服務。Sidejobtrack為商品，服務，鐘點服務提供並管理發票，並會報付款和進帳的資金流動路線。
* Kayak.com 搜尋上百個旅行網站為您的飛機旅行和價位提供更多選擇。搜尋和預定機票是完全免費的，因為我們不是旅行社。
* TravBuddy 探險者的網站。使用這個網站的你不需要周遊世界。可能你只是想分享一下一個當地你喜歡的飯館，或者是上星期在附近發現的一個適合觀看日落的地方。不管你是在家還是在國外尋找，發現的樂趣是相同的。對你來說司空見慣的東西，對旅行者來說可能是個驚喜呢。
* Wayfaring 是一個可以在Google Map上建立自己的路線，位址，標籤的有趣的地方。
* Omnidrive：和世界上第一個網路硬碟一樣，你可以把你硬碟中所有的檔案上傳到這個網站，支援所有平台。
* ma.gnolia：在網路上建立自己的網站及社群。
* Ajaxian：Ajax相關部落格。
* Web 2.0 Sites：Web 2.0網站目錄，所有Web 2.0網站的相關服務
* YouTube：是一個可以讓使用者免費上傳、觀賞、分享影片短片的熱門影片共享網站
* Meta Cafe：得到最好的網路上影片-搞笑錄影，驚奇短片，罕見電影
* Vimeo：分享你自己剪輯的短片。上傳你用自己的數位相機，手機，或攝影機拍攝後剪輯的短片，並透過Vimeo與大家分享。
* Daily Motion ︰發佈、標籤、整合並分享你的影片剪輯短片。
* Imeem：imeem 是一個社會媒體服務性質的網站。使用者互相觀看、傳送、分享各種各樣的媒體類型，包括部落格、圖片、音樂、影片。換個方式來說，imeem 是以媒體為中心的社群服務網站，在另一層意義上來說，為使用者提供了線上內容分享服務。
* ClipShack：ClipShack 是錄影愛好者的社群，使用者可以將自己製作的影片上傳給人們觀賞、討論，可以與朋友、家人共享短片，可以將這裡的影片放入你的部落格。
* vSocial：用最快，最方便的方法上傳、觀看、分享影片短片。
* Jumpcut：最好的線上製作、整合、分享電影和幻燈片的網站。這是絕無僅有的一個網站。
* Video Bomb：可過濾出網路上最熱門的影片短片︰您只要按一下『Incoming!』就能找到您最想要的東西。
* eyeSpot：拍攝、整合、分享你的影片。線上使用eyespot混合器來編輯並整合你的影片，音樂和圖片。免費與世界共享你的影片。
* revver：上傳，共享影片。
* Avidbeauty：Avid Beauty 是提供給iPod使用者的娛樂社群。提供下載到iPod上的部落格。同時為會員提供 Flickr 圖片， YouTube 影片和 LiveJournal integration 。
音樂
* last.fm：Last.fm是透過搜尋和增加你最喜歡的歌手來形成風格的動態音樂網站 。建立你自己的音樂資料庫並透過搜尋來尋找和你擁有相似音樂資料庫的同好。
* Musicovery：根據心情來發現新的歌曲，透過免費的網路收音機來瀏覽不同風格和時代的音樂。
* read.io：Read.io將RSS feeds轉換成Broadcast，由TextToSpeech轉播. 多語言支援.
* MusicStrands：使用MusicStrands搜尋新音樂。聽取片段，然後標出你不想購買的歌曲，或者在指定地點標出你想要購買的歌曲。接著從不同的賣主那裡購買你想要的音樂。
* PODZINGER：世界上第一個音樂，影片搜尋引擎。
* Upto11：Upto11使用標籤和隊列向您推薦新音樂。你可以建立個人工作頁面，分享你的推薦，標籤，播放清單。
* Pandora：Pandora可以透過你以前和現在的喜好來幫助你尋找並發現新的音樂。
即時通信
* Meebo：可以讓您收到任何地方的來訊息，支援 msn、 yahoo、 aol/aim、 google talk (gtalk)、jabber和icq。
* Joopz：允許使用者從網路上向個人及團體傳送簡訊，同時可以直接從網路上收到來自收件人來自個人電腦或 Mac 的回覆。Joopz web 的簡訊可以從世界上所有可以上網的設備上發給任何美國或加拿大的手機使用者。
* campfire：提供簡易的網路上商務聊天室。Campfire允許檔案共享，編輯，製作，為使用者提供一個安全的，密碼保護的聊天室。
* Goowy：提供免費網頁和flash電子郵件服務。使用者可以即時通訊，傳送電子郵件，聊天，更多。
* Gizmo：Gizmo Project使用你的電腦連線（寬頻或撥接），來與其他電腦使用者打電話。只要按一下滑鼠，你就可以和在地球任何地方的朋友，家人，同事通話，就是這麼簡單。你們可以清楚的聊天，聊多久都可以，免費﹗
* eBuddy：為所有人、所有地區提供網路上簡訊服務。
* e-messenger：e-Messenger 是一種方便使用者在不用安裝任何Plug-In或 Java 程式就可以同MSN、AOL 和Yahoo使用者聊天的應用軟體。當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
* ILOVEIM：eBuddy是線上提供 MSN、Yahoo 和 AIM (AOL)簡訊的網站.當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
圖片
* Flickr：最好的儲存、搜尋、整理和分享您的圖片的地方
* Zooomr：舉世最好的線上分享，搜尋，儲存，整理照片的網站。
* Slide：
* zotozoto：
* 23HQ：你的圖片不是和你喜歡的人分享，而是儲存在電腦硬碟上嗎？
* Mybloop：MyBloop- 免費共享圖片，音樂，影片。儲存量無限制，無須安裝軟體。
部落格
* Blogger：可以快速發表你的想法，與人們交流，更多。
* Weblogs, Inc：透過產業環境，創造使用者可以分享的產品。
* BlogCode：BlogCode.com是一個以StoryCode.com為模板，以快速、簡易、直覺的模式推薦部落格的網站。用它，你可以以你最喜歡的日誌（甚至你自己的日誌）為原點，來找到…
* blo.gs：透過這個網頁和電子郵件，你可以密切關注你最喜歡的日誌。你甚至可以在旁邊製作一個部落格清單清單，這樣你就可以知道哪些你喜歡的部落格更新了.
* BlogLines：免費網路上搜尋，訂閱，製作，分享新聞和部落格以及豐富的網站內容的網站。
書籤
* Digg：Digg 主要靠使用者自行加入內容。所有的內容都會被送到這個網站去分享、發現、加書籤，支援你所喜歡的文章。
* del.icio.us：社群性書籤管理器。你可以將書籤加入你的清單並將其加以分類。
* Reddit：Reddit可以搜尋網路上最新，最流行的書籍。輸入你正在看的書籍的連線，reddit 就能知道你喜歡什麼類型的書。
* StumbleUpon：StumbleUpon透過按一下頻率分析群眾對書的質量的評價。當你猶豫的時候，可以看看和你愛好相似的朋友們喜歡的書。
* Blinklist：真正的人們共享興趣的的網頁清單。為人們喜歡的，或準備稍後收藏的網站寫出了評價。
* Blummy：一個透過你的書籤工具欄，快速連線你喜歡的網頁的免費工具。在Blummy 上增加或製作幾個小Plug-In後，你幾乎可以做任何事︰增加圖片到Flickr， 增加站點到del.icio.us，在WIkipedia看文章，從上百個”blummlets”書籤中選擇你喜歡的，或者製作你自己的書籤。
* Techcrunch：TechCrunch是關於Web 2.0的產品及公司的部落格，大部分（技術分析）文章都是Michael Arrington所寫. 這個部落格第一次開始發表文章是在2005年6月11日。
* Furl：用Furl的簡易書籤，可以從所有網站連線你最喜歡的網頁書籤。透過Furl可以方便的儲存、做筆記、分享你儲存的連線、或瀏覽最熱門的書籤，來找到最新的或有意思的內容。
* Spurl：使用Spurl的免費線上書籤服務和搜尋引擎，你決不會再次無故無法進行網頁連線。只需按一下書籤本，Spurl就能快速儲存網址，同時透過您的喜好來推薦新文章。
* Trailfire：用於寫作，分享的軟體。
VOIP（網路電話）
* Jajah：jah是網路電話提供者，由澳洲人Roman Scharf和Daniel Mattes製作於2005年01月。Jajah 的總部位於美國加洲的Mountain View，和盧森堡。Jajah還有一個位於以色列的開發中心。
* skype：Skype可以免費下載，免費呼叫他人。Skype是IP語音軟體界的老大。
* Private Phone：擁有一個免費的當地語音電話號碼和訊息，你就可以線上查詢任何電話。
遊戲
* Trendio：Trendio.com 是一個線上的市場預測網站，使用者不是用真正的錢從公司購買股票，而是用虛擬貨幣購買有可靠新聞的項目的股票。可用到的內容包括時事政治，體育和娛樂。新聞中這些內容出現的越多，股票的價值就越高。目前這個網站使用大約三千個搜尋，來測量這些詞的價值.
* GameSnips：digg風格的線上遊戲清單，可以選擇最近更新的遊戲清單，或按一下率排列的清單。
* Pictaps：Roxik Pictaps - 畫一個小人，然後看（控制）他在3D界面中跳舞。
* Broadcast Game：這個廣播遊戲的目的是︰透過使用者所在的方位，把所有的電路和網路終端連線。而你需要做的僅僅是按一下或輪流按一下電路、終端，或網路中心。
* Pikipimp.com：想過要把圖片增加到你的相冊中去嗎？使用Pikpimp程式可以方便的將網路上任何圖片增加到相冊中。儲存相冊後就可以自由的將其加入你自己的網頁了。
* Mainada：喜歡畫漫畫和素描嗎？
wiki(維基百科）
* Wikipedia：最大的免費網路多語言支援百科全書。超過200萬個條目，並且數量持續增加中。
* LittleWiki：你可以在LittleWiki網站上建立公眾的或私人的維基網頁。Wiki是所有人都可以登入並編輯內容的網站，也就是說你可以編入和編輯所有你想增加的訊息，任意閱讀其他人編入的訊息。
* Wetpaint：Wetpaint動力網站集合眾人的智慧。Wetpaint的主要優勢在於允許所有人 特別是沒有技術能力的人 和有興趣，有激情的人一起，來創造並建設網站. 為了讓任何人都可以登入並編輯這個網站，Wetpaint連線了同種類型中最好的部落格、論壇及社群網站。
* JotSpot：使用者可以WYSIWYG編輯器來連線Jotspot的安全維基綜合網站，建設並分享這個網站。透過安裝各種各樣的應用軟體-項目管理器，公司目錄、Wiki、部落格、論壇投票、日曆等-來完善你的維基內容，然後邀請他人來投稿。
* PBWiki：製作一個免費的，密碼保護的Wiki網站就跟做一個花生醬三文治一樣容易。輕鬆上傳HTML，將檔案連線入你的網頁，合併RSS，等等。
辦公工具
* Zoho Office Suite：線上Word Processor（文字處理器）。
* Google Docs & Spreadsheets：使用Google Docs & Spreadsheets，您可以：
*
o 使用我們的線上編輯器來編排檔案，檢查拼寫，等等
o 上傳Word、OpenOffice、RTF、 HTML或text檔案
o 下載…
* Num Sum：簡易的網路共享電子製表軟體。
* Dictinary：線上字典。
* notifyr.org：Notifyr是一個任何人都可以輕鬆使用的工具，使用它，您可以每天在世界範圍內，輕鬆快速的接收所有網站的最新更新的檔案。網路螞蟻出了新股票？或新產品上市訊息？ 永遠為您提供最好的，免費的訊息。
* ThinkFree Office：你是否希望過可以在Linux系統上編輯Excel電子製表軟體？你是否希望過可以給同事看一份在電腦上的陳述，而不是用Powerpoint製作的？你是否希望過可以…
* Numly：提供web 2.0下一代的版權和DRM數位憑證。
* gOffice：免費的線上文字處理軟體，可輸出pdf或html格式的信件，允許個性化信紙模板。
RSS服務
* FeedBurner：FeedBurner為部落格、Broadcast、商業出版社擁有的內容創造更高的價值。我們將以高級feed管理技術，和熟練的期刊訂閱的投遞技巧，忠實的為您服務。
* Feed Digest：Feed Digest支援RSS和Atom feeds的剖析，再生及重新架構。你可以使用它將RSS或Atom feeds的內容轉移到你的網站。
* Attensa：Attensa, Inc.是一個製造RSS閱讀器，提供線上RSS聚合器，企業RSS服務和RSS軟體自動智能投遞的軟體公司。
* Tiny Tiny RSS：Tiny Tiny RSS是以網路的新聞feed網站為基礎。透過它你可以閱讀任何地區的新聞，並且它給人的感覺就像桌面的一個應用程式一樣。
* Feed43：免費線上（在不影響您工作的狀態下）轉換網頁為RSS feed。
* Feed Mailer：直接向您傳送電子郵件。(感謝 John)
電子郵件
* Gmail：是一種實驗性質的網路電子郵件，建立它的目的在於可以讓你永遠沒有必要刪除郵件，並且總是可以找到你想找到的郵件。
* 30 Gigs：30Gigs.com是只有接到邀請才能註冊的網路電子郵件。想想看，足足30G的空間。
* Zookoda：專門提供給用電子郵件來行銷的部落格。Zookoda以傳送電子郵件的方法，為您部落格的訪客提供您的部落格的每日，每周或每月摘要。
* Sprout：為您管理電子郵件銷售和服務業務。不需要IT部門，郵件屋可以幫您整理郵件並提供回覆建議，節約您的時間，並讓您與您的客戶保持緊密的聯繫。不需要做任何設置，只需幾分鐘就可以迅速啟動。
* Gawab：提供有特色的電子郵件服務，支援POP/SMTP.
新聞
* NewsGator：在同一個地方就可以閱讀所有你喜歡的新聞，網頁和部落格。
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檔案共享
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其他
* Live：微軟的Web 2.0入口網站 。
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* Omnidrive：和世界上第一個網路硬碟一樣，你可以把你硬碟中所有的檔案上傳到這個網站，支援所有平台。
* ma.gnolia：在網路上建立自己的網站及社群。
* Ajaxian：Ajax相關部落格。
* Web 2.0 Sites：Web 2.0網站目錄，所有Web 2.0網站的相關服務
Friday, January 11, 2008
Friday 1-11-2008
9:30 AM
The pre-market was down huge, over 150 points at once. Now it is moving back up. But I believe that market will be down today. So I have to hold all my long positions. If there is any profit, I will take. But I will keep the AAPL Feb call anyway until it breaks key support level..
The pre-market was down huge, over 150 points at once. Now it is moving back up. But I believe that market will be down today. So I have to hold all my long positions. If there is any profit, I will take. But I will keep the AAPL Feb call anyway until it breaks key support level..
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Thursday 1-10-2008
9:00 AM
It is short-term bull and mid-term bear. We are officially in bear market. For our 401K and other long term investment, I think to avoid this down turn will yield a better results. So the game plan is to move the current holding out, and move back in after July.
It is short-term bull and mid-term bear. We are officially in bear market. For our 401K and other long term investment, I think to avoid this down turn will yield a better results. So the game plan is to move the current holding out, and move back in after July.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Wednesday 1-9-2008
10:00 PM
The market got a rebounce, it reversed around 2:30 pm. The Dow touched Auguest 2007 low, and bounced upwards, and closed 150 points positive. But I don't believe it is the end of the down trend.
Overall, Ed Handley was right, but his timing is little bit off.
Today's Industry Performance:
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
Updated 1/9/2008
Best Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val(Bil)
5.7 -5.1 Comml Svcs-Schools 21 A+ 14 9 29
3.9 -27.8 Bldg-Mobile/Mfg & Rv 17 D- 179 102 5
3.2 -5.9 Computer-Manufacturers 12 A 31 7 342
3.1 2.4 Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod 29 A 17 13 85
2.7 -3.7 Aerospace/Defense 10 A- 43 77 215
2.4 -8.1 Medical/Dental-Supplies 15 B 66 79 45
2.3 0.7 Utility-Gas Distribution 33 A- 46 135 75
2.3 -0.7 Telecom-Services Frgn 46 A+ 12 22 1003
2.2 -15.7 Transportation-Truck 24 D+ 153 187 15
2.1 -21.7 Banks-Super Regional 15 D 165 176 347
Worst Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val (Bil)
-3.1 -25.7 Mining-Gems 5 E 188 82 3
-2.7 -24.2 Retail-Mail Order&Direct 12 D 161 148 24
-2.4 -5.2 Diversified Operations 51 A+ 13 66 1160
-2.0 -20.1 Transportation-Ship 49 C 120 21 12
-2.0 -24.3 Leisure-Movies & Related 21 D+ 151 107 24
-1.9 -28.5 Trucks & Parts-Hvy Duty 12 D- 176 32 39
-1.9 -26.5 Retail-Home Furnishings 19 E 187 195 15
-1.9 -19.9 Media-Newspapers 15 D- 173 169 16
-1.8 -21.0 Food-Dairy Products 8 A 28 12 5
-1.7 -18.8 Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg 33 C- 138 110 89
ADVANCES & DECLINES
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ BB
Advancing Issues 1,978 (58%) 679 (47%) 1,480 (47%) 543 (29%)
Declining Issues 1,378 (40%) 682 (47%) 1,579 (50%) 892 (48%)
Unchanged Issues 64 (2%) 91 (6%) 91 (3%) 442 (24%)
Total Issues 3,420 1,452 3,150 1,877
New Highs 44 59 53 168
New Lows 725 249 659 290
The market got a rebounce, it reversed around 2:30 pm. The Dow touched Auguest 2007 low, and bounced upwards, and closed 150 points positive. But I don't believe it is the end of the down trend.
Overall, Ed Handley was right, but his timing is little bit off.
Today's Industry Performance:
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
Updated 1/9/2008
Best Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val(Bil)
5.7 -5.1 Comml Svcs-Schools 21 A+ 14 9 29
3.9 -27.8 Bldg-Mobile/Mfg & Rv 17 D- 179 102 5
3.2 -5.9 Computer-Manufacturers 12 A 31 7 342
3.1 2.4 Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod 29 A 17 13 85
2.7 -3.7 Aerospace/Defense 10 A- 43 77 215
2.4 -8.1 Medical/Dental-Supplies 15 B 66 79 45
2.3 0.7 Utility-Gas Distribution 33 A- 46 135 75
2.3 -0.7 Telecom-Services Frgn 46 A+ 12 22 1003
2.2 -15.7 Transportation-Truck 24 D+ 153 187 15
2.1 -21.7 Banks-Super Regional 15 D 165 176 347
Worst Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val (Bil)
-3.1 -25.7 Mining-Gems 5 E 188 82 3
-2.7 -24.2 Retail-Mail Order&Direct 12 D 161 148 24
-2.4 -5.2 Diversified Operations 51 A+ 13 66 1160
-2.0 -20.1 Transportation-Ship 49 C 120 21 12
-2.0 -24.3 Leisure-Movies & Related 21 D+ 151 107 24
-1.9 -28.5 Trucks & Parts-Hvy Duty 12 D- 176 32 39
-1.9 -26.5 Retail-Home Furnishings 19 E 187 195 15
-1.9 -19.9 Media-Newspapers 15 D- 173 169 16
-1.8 -21.0 Food-Dairy Products 8 A 28 12 5
-1.7 -18.8 Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg 33 C- 138 110 89
ADVANCES & DECLINES
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ BB
Advancing Issues 1,978 (58%) 679 (47%) 1,480 (47%) 543 (29%)
Declining Issues 1,378 (40%) 682 (47%) 1,579 (50%) 892 (48%)
Unchanged Issues 64 (2%) 91 (6%) 91 (3%) 442 (24%)
Total Issues 3,420 1,452 3,150 1,877
New Highs 44 59 53 168
New Lows 725 249 659 290
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Tuesday 1-8-2008
7:00 AM
I don't think I will do anything today, since I will have a meeting at lunch time. Meanwhile,
- SHORT 1. Ships - tbsi, drys, dsx; 2. Solar - csun, jaso, tsl, spwr, flsr, and solf; 3. Financial - MS. And LONG healthcare ETF and Utility ETF.
- LONG healthcare ETF - XLV and IHF, med/device ETF - IHE, and Utility ETF - IDU and XLU.
2:00 PM
The market opened higher and came into flat right now. I believe the market will go higher for a very short period, i.e., a few days. If it takes yesterday's low, I will close all my long positions and go for short. Currently, I am long SP call, and short MS put. I am also holding the XLV (etf).
Monday, January 7, 2008
Monday 1-7-2008
9:45 AM
The market is in a definitely down trend until there is strong reverse force. For today, it should be a consolidation. I don't expect it goes down. In fact, I hope it goes up and recoup some loss of last week, and am still holding the qid. Meanwhile, I have just added a long position for energy-other play.
11:17 AM
I did some profitable trades on AAPL, 4Q, and SPY. I expect a bounce from here. So I just added USU as the energy play, I did sold AHGP which bought early this morning for a lose durning the morning session. The ship segment is just broken. Strong short after this bounce.
8:15 PM
The market is in tear. All the major trends are broken. So Short 2 segments: 1. Ships; 2. Solar tomorrow.
The market is in a definitely down trend until there is strong reverse force. For today, it should be a consolidation. I don't expect it goes down. In fact, I hope it goes up and recoup some loss of last week, and am still holding the qid. Meanwhile, I have just added a long position for energy-other play.
11:17 AM
I did some profitable trades on AAPL, 4Q, and SPY. I expect a bounce from here. So I just added USU as the energy play, I did sold AHGP which bought early this morning for a lose durning the morning session. The ship segment is just broken. Strong short after this bounce.
8:15 PM
The market is in tear. All the major trends are broken. So Short 2 segments: 1. Ships; 2. Solar tomorrow.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
观念, 市场, 资金管理
一言难尽… 常常一些观念都得到赔时才能领悟 , 有几点：
1、 决定自己要长期待在市场上，所以得有一套资金管理方式帮助你，保本永远是第一考量、稳定为其次、最大获利为终极目标，许多人本末倒置，将最大获利摆第一，必自毙!!
2、永远的学习、阅读、和思考，专家意见看法永远保持合理怀疑，非亲身印证，不可当做自己的工具观念，对自己提出问题，事后解读和印证，每日写交易日志，每次买进，都要问自己为什么买，卖出也要问，买进后想想，如果明日大跌该怎么办，明日大涨又该怎么办，一开始不可能做的很好，但目标是进步。
3、贪心只能用在大波段，平时蚕食，但记住一点，市场盘整时间一定比有趋势时间多，除非足够证据证明突破盘局，否则平时皆是当盘整操作. 换句话说，平时只赚一小段一小段利润，一般散户整天苦思如何赚整段，结果上去又下来永远等不到出场点 。不要幻想飙股会发生在自己身上，因为这样的期待会带来灾难!，做久了自然就有遇到飙股的运气来。
4、要有自己判断行情的能力，说什么都要有自己的想法和分析技巧，也就是学习逻辑的推演，这须要时间，例如当大家都说连战当选股市会涨，你相信吗？为什么？我认为谁当选都是跌，有没有可能？我认为3/13大跌618点，是本来就会跌，但跌幅就是"政治盘"，这是我的看法，你认为呢？每个人都该自我思考…
5、永远记住，最脆弱最无法信任的还是自我，将利润吐回在冲动性交易是多数人的命运，新手套头部，老手套反弹，行情怎么走归怎么走，别替自己说了一对借口撑到后来回头看又是套在头部....
6、不论思考、行为、感觉，赢家和输家是截然不同的，人性自然趋动于输家的思考模式和行为，想成功必须彻底跳脱，反省是关键，每月对帐单寄来，敢不敢仔细看它，会不会故意将它忘记期待下一笔雪齿？会不会赚了点钱就讲话大声起来了？个性的改变常是需要的 。
7、如果只是偶尔进出，大盘7000点当做分水岭，以下买，以上卖，几乎一定赚，想进进出出，就要下功夫，短线利润最高，但常常进出风险绝对是最大，短线交易技巧只有高手才值得追随，但市场上高手稀少难寻，会讲大话的没半个是，长线赚钱不难，短线赚钱很难，短线只能靠技术面，多看图，最好将它背在脑海中，技术面最重要的k线和均线，多下点功夫.
8、要有被打入输家的最坏打算，因为待在市场上久了，只有两种结果，大赚或大赔，但机率上大赔较可能.
9、大家用的技术面都差不多，法人用的和散户用的差不多；甚至主力用的和我们用的也差不多，但绩效怎么会差那么多？以前有个阿丁，外号一日丁，专门在技术指针快黄金交叉前大买，一买隔日开高指针真的交叉了，散户必追，结果它狂倒货，黄金交叉不到一天就结束了，主力可是动脑动的可以出国比赛了，散户通常较天真，不知市场险恶，赔了还搞不太懂，技术分析使用在于功力的深浅，不会用当然觉得没用.
10、要清楚别人的缺点在哪，自己的优点在哪。散户最大毛病就是，从头做多到尾，大盘上涨做多，盘整也做多，下跌也做多，一年到晚就是不停的买，这支不行换那支，那支不行再换那那支，翻翻线图，上市加上柜600支股票从10328下来后还一直涨的有几支？找到的机率有没有10%？ 买股票一定要看大盘啊，线型再怎么好，大盘不佳涨起来也有限，死多头才是真正要改的观念；尽量创造自己的优势，例如波段操作外，还有当冲的能力，非就是一定要当冲，而是对长、中、短线的整体概念..
11、当功力达到一个程度时，乐趣自然来，才能真的享受操作的乐趣和财富! 在此之前，就是付出，不断的付出，基本功的扎实度关系到未来操作的绩效。赚钱时要谦虚，等绩效到达50%时再来证明自己是高手...但对生手而言，只要懂一个简单的观念，绩效马上突飞猛进，就是"波段头部出场" 。何谓头部？ 头部和盘整区的情形很类似(突破后叫盘整，未突破叫头部)。基于"保本观念" ，任何"波段延升的盘整"，都当头部操作，这个概念"非常非常"重要!! 只要在高档盘整时看一个人怎么操作，就可以大概看出一个人平时绩效如何 。生手，在高档盘整时，只会抱牢做多(怕被洗出场)， 老手，懂的先退出或者盘时高出低进。 突破再追就好了嘛，且盘整时高出低进的策略，这段时间仍然在获利.. 策略可弥补判断上的不足.. 我的思考模式逻辑，很简单，都是从错误中修正得来的， 一开始时，很困难，也很累 。因为已经有一些错误观念(事后看来)，根深柢固在心里 。目的就是要找出错误打破它，并试着找出"市场的真理" 。
12.以技术而言，买在回档时是件"保险"的做法，但是否会回档、回档的价格、及回档后还会不会涨…是该考量的，回档时要明辨是不是真的"回檔"，只怕一路又跌回去… 不过这本来就有很多种"操法"，"追高杀低"有时也是好策略 。
13. 假突破的情形就是因为可能不小心触发停损单所引发的，向上突破应该是怎么卖都卖不下来，故一路涨上去… 一个新趋势的成形应该不会"不小心"，反而是已经成形后，会有"不小心或刻意"的超涨或超跌发生 。所以假突破总是比真突破多...
14. 看图表我们习惯由右向左看，但事实上，应该是由左向右看才对… 行情是一根一根填上去，要客观推测未来，是不能有太固执的成见…例如，许多人会在图形向上突破盘整区时建立多单， 思考上可能是，"因为盘整区上缘代表压力所在，突破代表有一股较强的买气趋动它向上走，此时建立多单，期待此趋势惯性的改变" 。但相反的，有时我反而会先建立空单， "因为盘整区上缘正是不易途破之压力，假突破情形较多，且除非强力突破，否则常会再回测一次，故建立空单，等待此惯性明显被改变时，再做修正"。
15. 看的对错并非赢或输的关键，只有输家才会将成败赌在一两次的交易， 斤斤计较于某一两次的胜败 。试着控制自己每笔最大亏损，任何情况皆不让其"破例" 。不用拿某一笔利润向自己或别人炫耀，因为赚100次和赚1次用的方法都是一样 。也不要因一两笔亏损就像战败的公鸡，亏损本来就是"交易的一部份"，它会永远跟随着你 。市场上，常看到一些人，赚个钱，讲话大声的要让全世界知道；赔钱时，这些人不发一语，眉头深锁。这样的态度只会让自己慢性的掉落至输家的深渊…没有人能在一开始面对亏损时就神态自若，要做到高手风范输赢套轧不行于色，非得经过一番生死觉悟啊，赔到人生变灰暗的那一剎那间，跳级关卡才会打开，否则平时进步如同龟爬，但出现这种难得的晋升转机时，许多人又常常放弃那样蜕变的机会，殊为可惜… 如果不幸的一开始就遭遇连续失败，那更是一个严苛的挑战和试炼 。"越挫越勇"的体会，在凡夫俗子生命中未曾出现过，因为太难熬了，讲难听点自作自受，投降是将问题解决一劳永逸的方法，大部份理性的人会选择如此；会牙根一咬抗战到底的，大概是因生命中不能忍受平凡吧。 这些体会在期货中表现的淋漓尽致，"高风险"三个字已不足以表现操作的难度，人性的考验在此表露无遗，难不是难在如何在1小时内赚50万元，而是难在如何在这1小时内让心脏不加速跳动，难在如何让人看不出你是赔了50万还是赚了50万…但这样的交易生活，对一个成功者来说，是世上最迷人的，是项永无止尽的挑战，更是了解自己最佳途径。虽然交易路途孤独而艰困，成功的果实只有成功者才知多么甜美，期货的高利润让很多人羡慕不已，我认为一点都不侥幸…许多人，只经历过一次失败就被击垮，常常不是金额的问题，而是心理太脆弱，禁不起打击，或许说一开始就不了解自己吧，不知道自己到底能掌握多少.. 并不知道自我的忍受极限在哪，一直认为自己很勇敢 。结果走势不如预期，不敢去想如果这次赔的话该怎么办，不敢去想如果行情走势更不利时心里的煎熬，一开始的获利让一个人放松了所有戒心，"反正摆着就会回来了"成为套牢时唯一策略，完全将命运交给市场，自己竟成为一旁观者，因为重头到尾除了打电话挂单外，看不出这部位的决定权是在操作者身上，看不出自己到底有没有参与交易，赔钱变成驼鸟，赚钱又变成狮子出来大吼展现英勇，这样的态度将成为市场上所谓的羊，如果八字差一点，变成了一头猪… 交易这行，心理课程是必修主科，但很少人会和我们分享那样难忘又难解的感觉， 我们只喜欢跟别人炫耀最美好的部份.. 好不容易在市场上学习到该有的正确观念，又好不容易学会了分析行情的技巧，更又好不容易研究出一段行情的可能走势， 嗅出波段头部出现，此时是最佳放空时机，竟眼睁睁的看着行情如预期般陨落，手上一个部位都没有，为什么？因为最佳放空时机的环境无法让人安心，基本面大好、人气沸腾到极点、偏空又会被笑、主流股最后喷出涨到天价、没有人和你是站在同一边的，根本没有勇气建立这么一个 "众人不看好"的部位，心理的难适让人害怕，新手不知"胜利的感觉正就是美妙在此"，不知"此时最大的敌人就是自己"，胜利已在面前等待，却没胆识去追寻… 生手以为赢家只不过是台会分析行情的计算机，控制情绪的重要性很少被人完整的描述，走过这条路很难相信，那些自吹自擂的人会是赢家，更会对市场上各种光怪的现像摇头，股票成为不折不扣的商品在贩卖，炫耀股市战果更成为自我价值提升的方式 。从期货市场跳回观看股市更是一阵毛骨耸然，期货1小时赔20%会让人惊醒，股市1年赔掉100%外加负债加利息，竟唤不醒一个人？! 风险观念，一般人非得大赔一次才会体会 。本来就不能看别人的分析结果进出， 因为，出场点才是致胜的关键，但一般解盘以进场点为主 。无法彻底了解别人真正讲的逻辑重点时，会断章取义 。要有自己的想法，真正意义在于，进出的准则可以拿捏的有依据 ，所以比较不会有悲剧发生，太相信别人的想法，如果对方是一般人，还好，因为你对他本来就怀疑 。如果太相信高手的预测，一旦出现错误，下场最惨，因为你已经完全信任他，错误发生时，无法立即更改，从头错到尾....技术分析的关键，在于对每段不同走势用的方法也不一样 。涨势有涨势的，跌势有跌势的，盘势有盘势的 。用的方法正不正确才是重点!情绪性、充动性交易是输家的创造者，如果我们回头翻翻交易记录， 将会发现， 真正伤害整体绩效的，正是那少数几笔大额的损失， 可能来自于试图摊平越陷越深的连续亏损， 也可能来自于原本小额亏损，不肯认赔最后变成无底洞的部位 。理想的资金控管是赢家的秘密，长期稳定获利的关键之一， 想成为赢家，你一定要有自己的资金管理办法，防止你陷入难以割舍的困境.. 仍然强调，情绪是交易的天敌，如果现在你还无法明确说出你的资金控管方法，或者完全无任何资金控管策略，纵使能够预测行情到90%的准确率，小心只要一次的翻船，10年来赚的可能一笔勾消..这告诉我们一件事，看多或看空，预测的准确度非赚钱的保证 。以前我就提过司马相的例子，他曾经神准过，但还是会赔光 。策略的拟订是最多人忽略的，也是最难的 。即使拟订好策略仍要经过不断的测试， 不要去怪行情怎么奇怪的那样走，那是因为我们的策略经不起考验 。一个好的策略甚至于可以在准确率只有3成的情况下还赚钱!我常强调不要去猜底部，这就是个很重要的策略 。我现在所提的这个策略重于预测的观念，非常非常重要 。 请注意，买进股票等它涨是件天经地义的事 。但务必思考，如果不涨，该怎么办 ，这就是策略 。玩死人的问题在于策略，不在预测对或错 。观念能否开窍在于几次的生死关头的觉悟，别人写再多神奇的文章也没有用。神奇T理论，Magic T Theory 。是出自于一位毕业于麻省理工学院的泰瑞.隆德利 。理论是说，在市场上涨过程和下跌过程所花的时间是一样的 。在市场上涨前一定有某种预兆，当市场准备就绪，资金累积， 能量蓄积完毕后，就会开始向上扬升 。T这个字母，左右两边等长，故他以此称之 。这理论实际上诉说了许多有关宇宙进行的一些规律 。 一个人进步最快的时后，不是在一路顺风时，而是在遭遇挫折时 。(大空头惨跌之后，常会走大多头？!) 当你活的够久，你会犯下所有的错误。 最后成功的人，常不是一路顺风，而是经历过无数的跌跌撞撞.. 没经历过挫折而一路顺风的人，常在某一次的失败中，阵亡出局。一个超大多头，常以最大的崩盘画下句点?! 费氏和T理论不只碰触到了股市的结构，人生也脱离不了... 15. 操盘较适合用艺术的角度切入剖析.. T理论和费氏，最让人感兴趣的不是数字部份， 是它所隐藏的哲学意义，满值得人深思的."完美常是不经意被创造出来的" 。对操作来说，为什么策略对我们是这么重要呢？ 因为，没有人可以100%的预测行情，假如有人可以办到，那根本就不需要策略了 。完全不会犯错的人，就是神 。但你我都会犯错，所以我们需要策略来帮助我们 。还记得万点时，我们将股票出清吧 。为什么要这样做呢？因为，这边已经形成了一个头了 。什么叫头？一段涨势，涨不动了，都可以怀疑它是头 。如果盘了一阵子后来又上去了，那原本涨不动的地方就变成所谓整理段 。但对操作策略来说，涨不动的地方，我们全部都要将它视为头部， 因为这样可以让我们规避掉下跌的风险， 就如同现在套牢在头部的人，都是因为认为股票会在万点再涨上去，所以抱牢， 但不管我们怎么认为，看多也好，看空也好，策略上，都该先退出持股观望。 同理，对下跌势来说，跌不下去的地方，都要将其视为整理段， 不能将其视为底部，因为底部只有一个，一般猜都会猜错 。即使看起来像底部，还是要将其当为整理段， 只能高出低进，不能买进抱牢，就像现在这边 。这是我们的标准策略 。
16. "策略的目的在让我们可以控制风险，而不是获取最大利润" 。底部在哪？这问题事实上根本就不重要，也不用知道，也没人知道 。专心在自己的买卖点上，何时可加码、何时该停损、如果涨上去该如何做….. 这才是较实际的… 有句操作名言，永远不要加码亏损的部位。这句话，太太重要了，但却是最多人忽略的 。我想这波下跌，很多人有深深的感受 。换言之，永远只加码赚钱的部位。 这句话的精神就在于，不让你的亏损部位有机会呈倍数成长。因为我们的资金是有限的，我们的判断不可能100%正确，为了考量风险，我们必须如此做 。 将一些利润搬过来抵销风险是不得已的做法， 因为我们的资金有限， 因为我们可能会犯错。 那些会弄到断头，会赔的一踏胡涂的最大问题，都是在策略 。看错行情，每个人都会， 但高手厉害的地方就是他可以承受不断的犯错， 策略的拟定，真的很重要...
17. 对一个操作者来说，手上有部位时的操作，和预测是完全两回事，判断的目的，在于让部位以最小风险的方式来得到最大利润，后势的判断就必须融入你的部位已发生的利润或亏损，所以会较复杂。当部位出现利润时，就让利润自行发展，只要自己设定个出场时机，决定在何种情况下获利出场，那这笔交易就算成功，并不需要一定要将如空头部位在最低点出场才算对，多赚少赚都是赚；相反地，当部位出现亏损，此时，我认为并不是要证明自己看法一定对的时候，将亏损部位做出正确的处理才是当务之急，越坚定自己一定对，小心亏损会悄悄地以doube的速度扩大，让你因一笔交易永远无法翻身 。
18. 看盘分两种，看的懂和看不懂，看不懂的看再多也没用，看的懂的，每天瞄一眼就够了 。
19. 赔钱有两个原因，一个是技术不好，另一个是心理不够健全易受影响 。 在此时，会对自己更加的了解，发现原来自己信心常是如此脆弱，了解自己才有办法将交易技术再做提升，许多老手卡在半路上不去，常是心理的问题，技术已到极至也没用，心理要去克服...
20. 策略上，操作不能在看似底部时放入所有资金，而是该一路加码上去的，势不对时，记得抽出资金速度要快 。
1、 决定自己要长期待在市场上，所以得有一套资金管理方式帮助你，保本永远是第一考量、稳定为其次、最大获利为终极目标，许多人本末倒置，将最大获利摆第一，必自毙!!
2、永远的学习、阅读、和思考，专家意见看法永远保持合理怀疑，非亲身印证，不可当做自己的工具观念，对自己提出问题，事后解读和印证，每日写交易日志，每次买进，都要问自己为什么买，卖出也要问，买进后想想，如果明日大跌该怎么办，明日大涨又该怎么办，一开始不可能做的很好，但目标是进步。
3、贪心只能用在大波段，平时蚕食，但记住一点，市场盘整时间一定比有趋势时间多，除非足够证据证明突破盘局，否则平时皆是当盘整操作. 换句话说，平时只赚一小段一小段利润，一般散户整天苦思如何赚整段，结果上去又下来永远等不到出场点 。不要幻想飙股会发生在自己身上，因为这样的期待会带来灾难!，做久了自然就有遇到飙股的运气来。
4、要有自己判断行情的能力，说什么都要有自己的想法和分析技巧，也就是学习逻辑的推演，这须要时间，例如当大家都说连战当选股市会涨，你相信吗？为什么？我认为谁当选都是跌，有没有可能？我认为3/13大跌618点，是本来就会跌，但跌幅就是"政治盘"，这是我的看法，你认为呢？每个人都该自我思考…
5、永远记住，最脆弱最无法信任的还是自我，将利润吐回在冲动性交易是多数人的命运，新手套头部，老手套反弹，行情怎么走归怎么走，别替自己说了一对借口撑到后来回头看又是套在头部....
6、不论思考、行为、感觉，赢家和输家是截然不同的，人性自然趋动于输家的思考模式和行为，想成功必须彻底跳脱，反省是关键，每月对帐单寄来，敢不敢仔细看它，会不会故意将它忘记期待下一笔雪齿？会不会赚了点钱就讲话大声起来了？个性的改变常是需要的 。
7、如果只是偶尔进出，大盘7000点当做分水岭，以下买，以上卖，几乎一定赚，想进进出出，就要下功夫，短线利润最高，但常常进出风险绝对是最大，短线交易技巧只有高手才值得追随，但市场上高手稀少难寻，会讲大话的没半个是，长线赚钱不难，短线赚钱很难，短线只能靠技术面，多看图，最好将它背在脑海中，技术面最重要的k线和均线，多下点功夫.
8、要有被打入输家的最坏打算，因为待在市场上久了，只有两种结果，大赚或大赔，但机率上大赔较可能.
9、大家用的技术面都差不多，法人用的和散户用的差不多；甚至主力用的和我们用的也差不多，但绩效怎么会差那么多？以前有个阿丁，外号一日丁，专门在技术指针快黄金交叉前大买，一买隔日开高指针真的交叉了，散户必追，结果它狂倒货，黄金交叉不到一天就结束了，主力可是动脑动的可以出国比赛了，散户通常较天真，不知市场险恶，赔了还搞不太懂，技术分析使用在于功力的深浅，不会用当然觉得没用.
10、要清楚别人的缺点在哪，自己的优点在哪。散户最大毛病就是，从头做多到尾，大盘上涨做多，盘整也做多，下跌也做多，一年到晚就是不停的买，这支不行换那支，那支不行再换那那支，翻翻线图，上市加上柜600支股票从10328下来后还一直涨的有几支？找到的机率有没有10%？ 买股票一定要看大盘啊，线型再怎么好，大盘不佳涨起来也有限，死多头才是真正要改的观念；尽量创造自己的优势，例如波段操作外，还有当冲的能力，非就是一定要当冲，而是对长、中、短线的整体概念..
11、当功力达到一个程度时，乐趣自然来，才能真的享受操作的乐趣和财富! 在此之前，就是付出，不断的付出，基本功的扎实度关系到未来操作的绩效。赚钱时要谦虚，等绩效到达50%时再来证明自己是高手...但对生手而言，只要懂一个简单的观念，绩效马上突飞猛进，就是"波段头部出场" 。何谓头部？ 头部和盘整区的情形很类似(突破后叫盘整，未突破叫头部)。基于"保本观念" ，任何"波段延升的盘整"，都当头部操作，这个概念"非常非常"重要!! 只要在高档盘整时看一个人怎么操作，就可以大概看出一个人平时绩效如何 。生手，在高档盘整时，只会抱牢做多(怕被洗出场)， 老手，懂的先退出或者盘时高出低进。 突破再追就好了嘛，且盘整时高出低进的策略，这段时间仍然在获利.. 策略可弥补判断上的不足.. 我的思考模式逻辑，很简单，都是从错误中修正得来的， 一开始时，很困难，也很累 。因为已经有一些错误观念(事后看来)，根深柢固在心里 。目的就是要找出错误打破它，并试着找出"市场的真理" 。
12.以技术而言，买在回档时是件"保险"的做法，但是否会回档、回档的价格、及回档后还会不会涨…是该考量的，回档时要明辨是不是真的"回檔"，只怕一路又跌回去… 不过这本来就有很多种"操法"，"追高杀低"有时也是好策略 。
13. 假突破的情形就是因为可能不小心触发停损单所引发的，向上突破应该是怎么卖都卖不下来，故一路涨上去… 一个新趋势的成形应该不会"不小心"，反而是已经成形后，会有"不小心或刻意"的超涨或超跌发生 。所以假突破总是比真突破多...
14. 看图表我们习惯由右向左看，但事实上，应该是由左向右看才对… 行情是一根一根填上去，要客观推测未来，是不能有太固执的成见…例如，许多人会在图形向上突破盘整区时建立多单， 思考上可能是，"因为盘整区上缘代表压力所在，突破代表有一股较强的买气趋动它向上走，此时建立多单，期待此趋势惯性的改变" 。但相反的，有时我反而会先建立空单， "因为盘整区上缘正是不易途破之压力，假突破情形较多，且除非强力突破，否则常会再回测一次，故建立空单，等待此惯性明显被改变时，再做修正"。
15. 看的对错并非赢或输的关键，只有输家才会将成败赌在一两次的交易， 斤斤计较于某一两次的胜败 。试着控制自己每笔最大亏损，任何情况皆不让其"破例" 。不用拿某一笔利润向自己或别人炫耀，因为赚100次和赚1次用的方法都是一样 。也不要因一两笔亏损就像战败的公鸡，亏损本来就是"交易的一部份"，它会永远跟随着你 。市场上，常看到一些人，赚个钱，讲话大声的要让全世界知道；赔钱时，这些人不发一语，眉头深锁。这样的态度只会让自己慢性的掉落至输家的深渊…没有人能在一开始面对亏损时就神态自若，要做到高手风范输赢套轧不行于色，非得经过一番生死觉悟啊，赔到人生变灰暗的那一剎那间，跳级关卡才会打开，否则平时进步如同龟爬，但出现这种难得的晋升转机时，许多人又常常放弃那样蜕变的机会，殊为可惜… 如果不幸的一开始就遭遇连续失败，那更是一个严苛的挑战和试炼 。"越挫越勇"的体会，在凡夫俗子生命中未曾出现过，因为太难熬了，讲难听点自作自受，投降是将问题解决一劳永逸的方法，大部份理性的人会选择如此；会牙根一咬抗战到底的，大概是因生命中不能忍受平凡吧。 这些体会在期货中表现的淋漓尽致，"高风险"三个字已不足以表现操作的难度，人性的考验在此表露无遗，难不是难在如何在1小时内赚50万元，而是难在如何在这1小时内让心脏不加速跳动，难在如何让人看不出你是赔了50万还是赚了50万…但这样的交易生活，对一个成功者来说，是世上最迷人的，是项永无止尽的挑战，更是了解自己最佳途径。虽然交易路途孤独而艰困，成功的果实只有成功者才知多么甜美，期货的高利润让很多人羡慕不已，我认为一点都不侥幸…许多人，只经历过一次失败就被击垮，常常不是金额的问题，而是心理太脆弱，禁不起打击，或许说一开始就不了解自己吧，不知道自己到底能掌握多少.. 并不知道自我的忍受极限在哪，一直认为自己很勇敢 。结果走势不如预期，不敢去想如果这次赔的话该怎么办，不敢去想如果行情走势更不利时心里的煎熬，一开始的获利让一个人放松了所有戒心，"反正摆着就会回来了"成为套牢时唯一策略，完全将命运交给市场，自己竟成为一旁观者，因为重头到尾除了打电话挂单外，看不出这部位的决定权是在操作者身上，看不出自己到底有没有参与交易，赔钱变成驼鸟，赚钱又变成狮子出来大吼展现英勇，这样的态度将成为市场上所谓的羊，如果八字差一点，变成了一头猪… 交易这行，心理课程是必修主科，但很少人会和我们分享那样难忘又难解的感觉， 我们只喜欢跟别人炫耀最美好的部份.. 好不容易在市场上学习到该有的正确观念，又好不容易学会了分析行情的技巧，更又好不容易研究出一段行情的可能走势， 嗅出波段头部出现，此时是最佳放空时机，竟眼睁睁的看着行情如预期般陨落，手上一个部位都没有，为什么？因为最佳放空时机的环境无法让人安心，基本面大好、人气沸腾到极点、偏空又会被笑、主流股最后喷出涨到天价、没有人和你是站在同一边的，根本没有勇气建立这么一个 "众人不看好"的部位，心理的难适让人害怕，新手不知"胜利的感觉正就是美妙在此"，不知"此时最大的敌人就是自己"，胜利已在面前等待，却没胆识去追寻… 生手以为赢家只不过是台会分析行情的计算机，控制情绪的重要性很少被人完整的描述，走过这条路很难相信，那些自吹自擂的人会是赢家，更会对市场上各种光怪的现像摇头，股票成为不折不扣的商品在贩卖，炫耀股市战果更成为自我价值提升的方式 。从期货市场跳回观看股市更是一阵毛骨耸然，期货1小时赔20%会让人惊醒，股市1年赔掉100%外加负债加利息，竟唤不醒一个人？! 风险观念，一般人非得大赔一次才会体会 。本来就不能看别人的分析结果进出， 因为，出场点才是致胜的关键，但一般解盘以进场点为主 。无法彻底了解别人真正讲的逻辑重点时，会断章取义 。要有自己的想法，真正意义在于，进出的准则可以拿捏的有依据 ，所以比较不会有悲剧发生，太相信别人的想法，如果对方是一般人，还好，因为你对他本来就怀疑 。如果太相信高手的预测，一旦出现错误，下场最惨，因为你已经完全信任他，错误发生时，无法立即更改，从头错到尾....技术分析的关键，在于对每段不同走势用的方法也不一样 。涨势有涨势的，跌势有跌势的，盘势有盘势的 。用的方法正不正确才是重点!情绪性、充动性交易是输家的创造者，如果我们回头翻翻交易记录， 将会发现， 真正伤害整体绩效的，正是那少数几笔大额的损失， 可能来自于试图摊平越陷越深的连续亏损， 也可能来自于原本小额亏损，不肯认赔最后变成无底洞的部位 。理想的资金控管是赢家的秘密，长期稳定获利的关键之一， 想成为赢家，你一定要有自己的资金管理办法，防止你陷入难以割舍的困境.. 仍然强调，情绪是交易的天敌，如果现在你还无法明确说出你的资金控管方法，或者完全无任何资金控管策略，纵使能够预测行情到90%的准确率，小心只要一次的翻船，10年来赚的可能一笔勾消..这告诉我们一件事，看多或看空，预测的准确度非赚钱的保证 。以前我就提过司马相的例子，他曾经神准过，但还是会赔光 。策略的拟订是最多人忽略的，也是最难的 。即使拟订好策略仍要经过不断的测试， 不要去怪行情怎么奇怪的那样走，那是因为我们的策略经不起考验 。一个好的策略甚至于可以在准确率只有3成的情况下还赚钱!我常强调不要去猜底部，这就是个很重要的策略 。我现在所提的这个策略重于预测的观念，非常非常重要 。 请注意，买进股票等它涨是件天经地义的事 。但务必思考，如果不涨，该怎么办 ，这就是策略 。玩死人的问题在于策略，不在预测对或错 。观念能否开窍在于几次的生死关头的觉悟，别人写再多神奇的文章也没有用。神奇T理论，Magic T Theory 。是出自于一位毕业于麻省理工学院的泰瑞.隆德利 。理论是说，在市场上涨过程和下跌过程所花的时间是一样的 。在市场上涨前一定有某种预兆，当市场准备就绪，资金累积， 能量蓄积完毕后，就会开始向上扬升 。T这个字母，左右两边等长，故他以此称之 。这理论实际上诉说了许多有关宇宙进行的一些规律 。 一个人进步最快的时后，不是在一路顺风时，而是在遭遇挫折时 。(大空头惨跌之后，常会走大多头？!) 当你活的够久，你会犯下所有的错误。 最后成功的人，常不是一路顺风，而是经历过无数的跌跌撞撞.. 没经历过挫折而一路顺风的人，常在某一次的失败中，阵亡出局。一个超大多头，常以最大的崩盘画下句点?! 费氏和T理论不只碰触到了股市的结构，人生也脱离不了... 15. 操盘较适合用艺术的角度切入剖析.. T理论和费氏，最让人感兴趣的不是数字部份， 是它所隐藏的哲学意义，满值得人深思的."完美常是不经意被创造出来的" 。对操作来说，为什么策略对我们是这么重要呢？ 因为，没有人可以100%的预测行情，假如有人可以办到，那根本就不需要策略了 。完全不会犯错的人，就是神 。但你我都会犯错，所以我们需要策略来帮助我们 。还记得万点时，我们将股票出清吧 。为什么要这样做呢？因为，这边已经形成了一个头了 。什么叫头？一段涨势，涨不动了，都可以怀疑它是头 。如果盘了一阵子后来又上去了，那原本涨不动的地方就变成所谓整理段 。但对操作策略来说，涨不动的地方，我们全部都要将它视为头部， 因为这样可以让我们规避掉下跌的风险， 就如同现在套牢在头部的人，都是因为认为股票会在万点再涨上去，所以抱牢， 但不管我们怎么认为，看多也好，看空也好，策略上，都该先退出持股观望。 同理，对下跌势来说，跌不下去的地方，都要将其视为整理段， 不能将其视为底部，因为底部只有一个，一般猜都会猜错 。即使看起来像底部，还是要将其当为整理段， 只能高出低进，不能买进抱牢，就像现在这边 。这是我们的标准策略 。
16. "策略的目的在让我们可以控制风险，而不是获取最大利润" 。底部在哪？这问题事实上根本就不重要，也不用知道，也没人知道 。专心在自己的买卖点上，何时可加码、何时该停损、如果涨上去该如何做….. 这才是较实际的… 有句操作名言，永远不要加码亏损的部位。这句话，太太重要了，但却是最多人忽略的 。我想这波下跌，很多人有深深的感受 。换言之，永远只加码赚钱的部位。 这句话的精神就在于，不让你的亏损部位有机会呈倍数成长。因为我们的资金是有限的，我们的判断不可能100%正确，为了考量风险，我们必须如此做 。 将一些利润搬过来抵销风险是不得已的做法， 因为我们的资金有限， 因为我们可能会犯错。 那些会弄到断头，会赔的一踏胡涂的最大问题，都是在策略 。看错行情，每个人都会， 但高手厉害的地方就是他可以承受不断的犯错， 策略的拟定，真的很重要...
17. 对一个操作者来说，手上有部位时的操作，和预测是完全两回事，判断的目的，在于让部位以最小风险的方式来得到最大利润，后势的判断就必须融入你的部位已发生的利润或亏损，所以会较复杂。当部位出现利润时，就让利润自行发展，只要自己设定个出场时机，决定在何种情况下获利出场，那这笔交易就算成功，并不需要一定要将如空头部位在最低点出场才算对，多赚少赚都是赚；相反地，当部位出现亏损，此时，我认为并不是要证明自己看法一定对的时候，将亏损部位做出正确的处理才是当务之急，越坚定自己一定对，小心亏损会悄悄地以doube的速度扩大，让你因一笔交易永远无法翻身 。
18. 看盘分两种，看的懂和看不懂，看不懂的看再多也没用，看的懂的，每天瞄一眼就够了 。
19. 赔钱有两个原因，一个是技术不好，另一个是心理不够健全易受影响 。 在此时，会对自己更加的了解，发现原来自己信心常是如此脆弱，了解自己才有办法将交易技术再做提升，许多老手卡在半路上不去，常是心理的问题，技术已到极至也没用，心理要去克服...
20. 策略上，操作不能在看似底部时放入所有资金，而是该一路加码上去的，势不对时，记得抽出资金速度要快 。
Saturday, January 5, 2008
ETFs for Major indices
short ultrashort long ultralong
DJIA DOG DXD DIA DDM
S&P SH SDS SPY SSO
Russel2k RWM TWM IWM UWM
QQQQ PSQ QID QQQQ QLD
midcap400 MYY MZZ MDY MVV
financial ??? UYG XLF SKF
ultrashort China FXI is FXP
SSG ultrashort semiconductor SOX
REW UltraShort Technology
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts EEM
SRS UltraShort Real Estate XHB
SKF UltraShort Financials XLF
SCC ultrasort consumer
DJIA DOG DXD DIA DDM
S&P SH SDS SPY SSO
Russel2k RWM TWM IWM UWM
QQQQ PSQ QID QQQQ QLD
midcap400 MYY MZZ MDY MVV
financial ??? UYG XLF SKF
ultrashort China FXI is FXP
SSG ultrashort semiconductor SOX
REW UltraShort Technology
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts EEM
SRS UltraShort Real Estate XHB
SKF UltraShort Financials XLF
SCC ultrasort consumer
Friday, January 4, 2008
Friday 1-4-2008
11:20 AM
The new employment number was surprisingly low, the market sell off. The Dow was down more than 200 points. A major line of support is broken on NDX (Q4), which is a very bad sign. So from now on, mid-term is bearish. If the $tnx.x (Treasury Yield) wants to go down to 3%, which is about 10% down from here, I believe that the market will go down about 10% from here. Also, I guess the time frame is about 6 months. So overall, it is a pig market.
The new employment number was surprisingly low, the market sell off. The Dow was down more than 200 points. A major line of support is broken on NDX (Q4), which is a very bad sign. So from now on, mid-term is bearish. If the $tnx.x (Treasury Yield) wants to go down to 3%, which is about 10% down from here, I believe that the market will go down about 10% from here. Also, I guess the time frame is about 6 months. So overall, it is a pig market.
Byron Wien Predicts Recession, President Obama
Recession in the U.S.? $1,000 an ounce gold? A filibuster-proof Democratic Senate? President Obama? If Byron Wien is right, 2008 is going to be one hell of a year.
On Wednesday, the legendary Wall Street guru and chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital Management released his 23rd annual list of 10 surprises he thinks are possible in the coming year.
Tops on his list is the first recession in the United States since 2001, with the housing sector weak and banks scared of lending to anyone who resembles trouble. On top of that, he expects underwhelming consumer spending and the unemployment rate to rise above 5%, with the Federal Reserve dropping the f ederal funds rate below 3%.
Despite a modest rise in wages, Wien is also looking for inflation to rise above 5% as high food and energy prices begin to take their toll. With that, Wien sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising to 5% and “stagflation” becoming a hot-button issue on the campaign trail and editorial pages.
On the commodity front, he expects oil to move between $80 and $115 a barrel, corn to rise to $6 a bushel and gold to reach $1,000 an ounce.
Recession in the U.S. will impact China, leading its economy to slow only modestly, but pushing its stock market into a sharp tumble.
In early November, Wien expects to see the junior senator from Illinois elected in a landslide victory while the Democrats gain control of 60 seats in the Senate along with a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Wien joined Pequot, a Westport, Conn.-based hedge fund, in 2005 after spending two decades as Morgan Stanley’s chief stock market strategist and two decades as a portfolio manager before that.
Wien gives his predictions at least a 50% of happening. In the past he’s predicted Osama bin Laden’s capture and Saddam Hussein’s resignation in an effort to avert war (See “Wien: Osama, Rumsfeld, Cheney Will Be Gone”), but he correctly anticipated that the Fed would not cut rates in the spring of 2007 and that gold would hit $800 an ounce.
On Wednesday, the legendary Wall Street guru and chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital Management released his 23rd annual list of 10 surprises he thinks are possible in the coming year.
Tops on his list is the first recession in the United States since 2001, with the housing sector weak and banks scared of lending to anyone who resembles trouble. On top of that, he expects underwhelming consumer spending and the unemployment rate to rise above 5%, with the Federal Reserve dropping the f ederal funds rate below 3%.
Despite a modest rise in wages, Wien is also looking for inflation to rise above 5% as high food and energy prices begin to take their toll. With that, Wien sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising to 5% and “stagflation” becoming a hot-button issue on the campaign trail and editorial pages.
On the commodity front, he expects oil to move between $80 and $115 a barrel, corn to rise to $6 a bushel and gold to reach $1,000 an ounce.
Recession in the U.S. will impact China, leading its economy to slow only modestly, but pushing its stock market into a sharp tumble.
In early November, Wien expects to see the junior senator from Illinois elected in a landslide victory while the Democrats gain control of 60 seats in the Senate along with a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Wien joined Pequot, a Westport, Conn.-based hedge fund, in 2005 after spending two decades as Morgan Stanley’s chief stock market strategist and two decades as a portfolio manager before that.
Wien gives his predictions at least a 50% of happening. In the past he’s predicted Osama bin Laden’s capture and Saddam Hussein’s resignation in an effort to avert war (See “Wien: Osama, Rumsfeld, Cheney Will Be Gone”), but he correctly anticipated that the Fed would not cut rates in the spring of 2007 and that gold would hit $800 an ounce.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Thursday 1-3-2008
8:00 AM
The market had a big (> 200) loss in Dow yesterday. Now, it is sitting in at the level of last Dec closing low, ready to fill in the gap of SPY, and re-test the Nov low. The game plan is to short the market in the short-term, and long for the mid-term.
The market had a big (> 200) loss in Dow yesterday. Now, it is sitting in at the level of last Dec closing low, ready to fill in the gap of SPY, and re-test the Nov low. The game plan is to short the market in the short-term, and long for the mid-term.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Wednesday 1/2/2008
12:00 AM
First trading day of 2008. The market premarket was higher, but opened flat and went big loss so far. All indices are down more than 1%.
I am trading pure based on TA right now, but in a very causion mode. I knew the TA points down, but with new year mood, I don't want to short the market too deep. Right now, I have closed all my short positions, although the trend is still toward down. Just keep on watching/paper trade until it presents an entry point for long.
First trading day of 2008. The market premarket was higher, but opened flat and went big loss so far. All indices are down more than 1%.
I am trading pure based on TA right now, but in a very causion mode. I knew the TA points down, but with new year mood, I don't want to short the market too deep. Right now, I have closed all my short positions, although the trend is still toward down. Just keep on watching/paper trade until it presents an entry point for long.
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