Investment Rules:


守不败之地,攻可赢之城。耐心等待好时机。选得好,不如时机选得巧。时间价位若没到,不会涨与跳。横盘不交易,自会有时机。买要等跳水,卖要等冲高。买阴不买阳,卖阳不卖阴。下跌时候要耐心,不到惊恐不买进。下跌反弹三次前,耐心等待站一边。头次反弹又回头,退出观望不发愁。下跌途中三次弹,谨慎伺机可建仓。众人惊恐我进场,人人欣喜我观望。惊恐跌过头,进场等着把钱收。疯狂涨过头,赶快了结闲悠悠。低位放量上攻可搭车,高位放量下跌赶紧撤。高位横盘又冲高,抓紧机会赶紧抛。低位横盘又新低,全仓进入好时机。低档横盘不怕套,高档横盘准备逃。天价不可买, 地价不要卖。天量不天亮,天气会变凉。情况若异常,赶紧先离场。

Sunday, March 9, 2008

About Options Pricing /Trading

(1) 如果想对 "Black-Scholes" options pricing model有更多了解, 不妨一试下面的LINK:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes

You can also find many numerical methods to price options in the finance literature.

(2) If you've no time for Black and Scholes and need a quick estimate for an at-the-money call or put option, here is a simple formula.

Price = (0.4 * Volatility * Square Root(Time Ratio)) * Base Price

Time ratio is the time in years that option has until expiration. So, for a 6 month option take the square root of 0.50 (half a year).

For example: calculate the price of an ATM option @ $45 (call and put) that has 3 months until expiration. The underlying volatility is 23%.

Answer: = 0.4 * 0.23 * SQRT(.25) *$45

Option Theoretical (approx) = $2.07

(3) What Affects Equity Option Prices?

 The current price of the underlying financial instrument
 The strike price of the option in comparison to the current market price (intrinsic value)
 The type of option (put or call)
 The amount of time remaining until expiration (time value)
 The current risk-free interest rate
 The volatility of the underlying financial instrument
 The dividend rate, if any, of the underlying financial instrument

注意不要本末倒置, 抓住重点, 才能有的放矢。

(4) 对于个人帐户, trading gamma vega theta rho....常常会十分困难, 甚至可以忽略不计, 但俺赞成在trading options前, 对这些概念最好有深入的了解。 Options are the most versatile trading instrument ever invented。 它的最大的好处是high leverage 和limited risks, 所以要善加利用这两点。如果把trading options 和trading the underlying结合起来,在运动(trading)中消灭敌人和在运动(trading)中保护自己, 这有可能是小户战胜大户的致胜之道。

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