2:30 PM
The market opened low, went low, and now it goes up, and making a horizontal S. Since this market is heading lower, I have to play on one side. I have closed all the long positions, and heavily shorted the market right now.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Weekend 2-10-2008
There are 5 stage of economy cycle, they are contraction: 1. early; 2. late, expansion: 1. early; 2. middle; 3. late. We are at early stage of contraction. The market has been down since Oct 2007 for 4 months. It matches the chart from Sep 2000 to Jan 2001 on S&P. This also marks the 1945-1996 statistics data on average down percentage. So it might start a pause and watch phase. Also the average down trend based on the history data is 7 months.
Therefore, I will have to pause and watch too. In the next 3 months, the market can go either ways for the short term. But the mid/long term trend is still down. I expect there will be another leg down. So the bias is to play the down trend for new low. After that, there might be a mid term rally, followed by a mid/long term down turn to retest the new low during or after summer time. Then we will have a huge leg up to close near flat for the whole year.
Therefore, I will have to pause and watch too. In the next 3 months, the market can go either ways for the short term. But the mid/long term trend is still down. I expect there will be another leg down. So the bias is to play the down trend for new low. After that, there might be a mid term rally, followed by a mid/long term down turn to retest the new low during or after summer time. Then we will have a huge leg up to close near flat for the whole year.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Friday 2-9-2008
5:30 PM
The market was up and down, but moving no where. So it is clear that it is consolidation. The trend is very clear now, that the market wants to go down. NO long positions only for a little bit of hedge. Short whenever it goes higher.
The market was up and down, but moving no where. So it is clear that it is consolidation. The trend is very clear now, that the market wants to go down. NO long positions only for a little bit of hedge. Short whenever it goes higher.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Wednesday 2-6-2008
9:20 Am
Yesterday was a big reverse day (continuation day -down trend). I have sold all the shorts, and loaded 1/3 positions of shorts, which was a very bad move.
I do have some problems with these type of days. I think the easy way to avoid is that once positions are cleared, don't jump in too quick. Wait out side and watch for a while see if there is any clear picture. That is to wait for the whole day till next day to see the direction.
This morning, the future is way down. Let's see how it plays out. S&P 1315 (SPY 131.18) is the 61.8% retrace from current up leg - A leg. If it breaks, the Jan low will be re-tested. I will load 100 shares of SSO at SPY $131.18 and QLD at QQQQ $41.60.
Yesterday was a big reverse day (continuation day -down trend). I have sold all the shorts, and loaded 1/3 positions of shorts, which was a very bad move.
I do have some problems with these type of days. I think the easy way to avoid is that once positions are cleared, don't jump in too quick. Wait out side and watch for a while see if there is any clear picture. That is to wait for the whole day till next day to see the direction.
This morning, the future is way down. Let's see how it plays out. S&P 1315 (SPY 131.18) is the 61.8% retrace from current up leg - A leg. If it breaks, the Jan low will be re-tested. I will load 100 shares of SSO at SPY $131.18 and QLD at QQQQ $41.60.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Tuesday 2-5-2008
2 chart of S&P during 2000-2001 and 2007-2008. Each one has the fed rate cut.9:00 AM
Yesterday, the market went down more than 100 pts. It is a sizable down. Today, the future is down a lot. The current correction wave of A-B-C is starting at B wave down. The current A wave up in S&P is 1400-1370 = 130 points. The B correction is looking at 38.2% of 130 pts, which is, S&P at 1350 level.
Yesterday, the market went down more than 100 pts. It is a sizable down. Today, the future is down a lot. The current correction wave of A-B-C is starting at B wave down. The current A wave up in S&P is 1400-1370 = 130 points. The B correction is looking at 38.2% of 130 pts, which is, S&P at 1350 level.
12:45 PM
The S&P 1350 level is broken. Now, I am looking at S&P 1320 level. I believe that since the news - Service segment in recession, is so huge that the 1st lvl of support should be broken. Plus the today's volumes are above average in the wake of yesterday's 2/3 of normal volumes. The sell is intensifying.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Monday 2-4-2008
11:30 AM
The last 2 days were volatile, both went up in a big size. In both of the days, the market went down over 100 pts in the morning, and came back with more than 100 points gain in the afternoon. Basically, I marked them distribution days.
This morning, the pre-market was flat. Now it is down on .5% average. I guess it either starts the A-B-C wave B leg or rolling down. We should see it clearly. If the market close flat, I am gonna lean towards the rollover formation. If the market close sizable down, I will think this is the B leg down. If the market goes up. I will add short position.
The last 2 days were volatile, both went up in a big size. In both of the days, the market went down over 100 pts in the morning, and came back with more than 100 points gain in the afternoon. Basically, I marked them distribution days.
This morning, the pre-market was flat. Now it is down on .5% average. I guess it either starts the A-B-C wave B leg or rolling down. We should see it clearly. If the market close flat, I am gonna lean towards the rollover formation. If the market close sizable down, I will think this is the B leg down. If the market goes up. I will add short position.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Thursday 1-31-2008
9:20 AM
The future is down huge. It is the revenge of yesterday roll-over. Don't watch the market too closely today. Let it run. Watch spy 132, QQQQ 43.25, XHB 18.6, XLF 26.75. If they reach, consider unload short positions.
The future is down huge. It is the revenge of yesterday roll-over. Don't watch the market too closely today. Let it run. Watch spy 132, QQQQ 43.25, XHB 18.6, XLF 26.75. If they reach, consider unload short positions.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wednesday 1-30-2008
10:00 AM
The future was down .5%, it gapped open, now it is fading the gap. I think that market will go lower from now. But from now to the fed decision, it should trade in a narrow range.
8:30 PM
Fed cut rate 50 base points. The market went up 200 points, then moved down and wiped all the gain. It made a huge reverse.
The future was down .5%, it gapped open, now it is fading the gap. I think that market will go lower from now. But from now to the fed decision, it should trade in a narrow range.
8:30 PM
Fed cut rate 50 base points. The market went up 200 points, then moved down and wiped all the gain. It made a huge reverse.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Tuesday 1-29-2008
12:00 AM
The market opened high and going swings. At this moment, I really don't have a crystal ball. But it is going up to a level that is critical for long positions. So I am unloading all the longs at this level, and go long if it can break up. Otherwise, I will add short positions, if it goes down. Today's close will tell more.
2:20 PM
Today's action is swing up and down with a flag formation. Since it happened at the relative high level, I treat it as smart money selling signal. So I have unloaded all long positions with only 100 share of SSO left. My theory is that the current market low needs to be re-tested before any major upside movement happens.
The market opened high and going swings. At this moment, I really don't have a crystal ball. But it is going up to a level that is critical for long positions. So I am unloading all the longs at this level, and go long if it can break up. Otherwise, I will add short positions, if it goes down. Today's close will tell more.
2:20 PM
Today's action is swing up and down with a flag formation. Since it happened at the relative high level, I treat it as smart money selling signal. So I have unloaded all long positions with only 100 share of SSO left. My theory is that the current market low needs to be re-tested before any major upside movement happens.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Monday 1-28-2008
9:00 AM
The oversea market is sold off. China market down another 7%. Today's future market was lower, and now is improving. I believe a re-test to 50% retrace level is for sure. So just wait for a few minutes after the open for the uptrend to finish, then long puts on spy. There will be at a certain point, the low will show, by then, cover all the put positions, and leave short positions. If any strong can be felt, add long QLD positions.
2:25 PM
The market made a temp bottom and went up. I missed the obvious double bottom and had to hold all the short positions. There are a couple of reasons, but the major one was that I didn't pay too much attention on the double bottom and had a preemptive assumption/line/level, which is totally wrong.
The oversea market is sold off. China market down another 7%. Today's future market was lower, and now is improving. I believe a re-test to 50% retrace level is for sure. So just wait for a few minutes after the open for the uptrend to finish, then long puts on spy. There will be at a certain point, the low will show, by then, cover all the put positions, and leave short positions. If any strong can be felt, add long QLD positions.
2:25 PM
The market made a temp bottom and went up. I missed the obvious double bottom and had to hold all the short positions. There are a couple of reasons, but the major one was that I didn't pay too much attention on the double bottom and had a preemptive assumption/line/level, which is totally wrong.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Weekend 1-26-2008
This week is a very volitile week. All the DOW up and down in almost 1000 points. Due to the quick sell off, for next a couple of weeks, the market will consolidation within this range (1000 points)(qqqq from 41.6 to 48). In additional, the consolidation formation will be up trend flag/wedge. Since the range will be so big that any day trade should be profitable.
After this consolidation, the trend is still down.
After this consolidation, the trend is still down.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Friday 1-25-2008
9:00 AM
The market had a good rally yesterday, but the volume is troublesome. MSFT had a good quarter so 4Q is running up almost 1.8% in pre-market. But again, the experts are expecting the rollover to the down side. So far, my positions are heavily hedged. The only worry is the SSO bought at $74 away too high. I will load up 100 shares of SDS at market open today, and hold other long positions including MOO and PBW. For aapl's call, I will add a put position once this bounce is done. I expect it to end in early next month.
My currently holding also includes a put of 4Q and QID. It is very neutral at this moment.
12:30 PM
The market opened higher, but going lower.
In the very short term, the market will go lower (hours); but in short term (days), the market wants to go higher. So take a chance to sell 1/2 of the short positions today and tomorrow.
The market had a good rally yesterday, but the volume is troublesome. MSFT had a good quarter so 4Q is running up almost 1.8% in pre-market. But again, the experts are expecting the rollover to the down side. So far, my positions are heavily hedged. The only worry is the SSO bought at $74 away too high. I will load up 100 shares of SDS at market open today, and hold other long positions including MOO and PBW. For aapl's call, I will add a put position once this bounce is done. I expect it to end in early next month.
My currently holding also includes a put of 4Q and QID. It is very neutral at this moment.
12:30 PM
The market opened higher, but going lower.
In the very short term, the market will go lower (hours); but in short term (days), the market wants to go higher. So take a chance to sell 1/2 of the short positions today and tomorrow.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Thursday 1-24-2008
8:45 AM
The pre-market is up. It should confirm that the market has setup the temporarily bottom. This mid-term bounce should last for a couple of weeks. So I will be holding my longs and shorts, and trade QQQQ to the upside on daily bases.
The pre-market is up. It should confirm that the market has setup the temporarily bottom. This mid-term bounce should last for a couple of weeks. So I will be holding my longs and shorts, and trade QQQQ to the upside on daily bases.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Wednesday 1-23-2008
8:30 AM
Yesterday, the pre-market was low more than 500 points. Fed cut .75 points short term interest rate, and the market close around -130 points. The morning, the market is lower again. Apple's earning was okay, but its forecast was not good. It went down 12%. QQQQ future is lower than yesterday's low, which is a very bad signal. So I have to buy puts to hedge my accounts.
8:00 PM
It is a huge reserve. Dow went down more than 300 points, then went up close to 300 points. I believe as it went up too quick and too fast, it needs to give back. So, sell long position after 15 minutes at open. Reload at around 12:30 pm if the market is still strong, then sell around 2:50 pm. But actually I expect the market to sell off starting right around 10:00 am.
Basically, it is just a bear market rebounce. So sell to the strength.
Yesterday, the pre-market was low more than 500 points. Fed cut .75 points short term interest rate, and the market close around -130 points. The morning, the market is lower again. Apple's earning was okay, but its forecast was not good. It went down 12%. QQQQ future is lower than yesterday's low, which is a very bad signal. So I have to buy puts to hedge my accounts.
8:00 PM
It is a huge reserve. Dow went down more than 300 points, then went up close to 300 points. I believe as it went up too quick and too fast, it needs to give back. So, sell long position after 15 minutes at open. Reload at around 12:30 pm if the market is still strong, then sell around 2:50 pm. But actually I expect the market to sell off starting right around 10:00 am.
Basically, it is just a bear market rebounce. So sell to the strength.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Monday 1-21-2008
9:00 AM
Today is Federal holiday, and the market is closed. But the global market crashed. Each major market is down more than 4-5%. Basically, tomorrow open will be a crash open, so be prepared for crash. Study those crash pattern, and trade on it.
Alright, game plan for a next couple of days:
1. Strong short (puts) S&P and QQQQ at tomorrow's open. If there is no chance to take sizable profit before 1:00 pm; add puts on any strongness. If it provides plenty of opportunities, take profit (close all puts), and then go long (calls with small size and setup stop).
2. Watch out for possible down turn after 1 pm. If it goes up and turns down, close call positions if they are still profitable.
3. Wait for the uptrend, if it goes up again around 3 pm, load some calls; otherwise, if it is a confirmed down trend, do nothing.
3. If the 1st day closes lower, the next day will be the reverse. So put at the open after a bounce, then wait for reverse to close the puts and long at around noon time.
Overall rules:
1. Trade puts, but never hold it overnight.
2. Long calls (long term), if it can't be profitable, hold.
Today is Federal holiday, and the market is closed. But the global market crashed. Each major market is down more than 4-5%. Basically, tomorrow open will be a crash open, so be prepared for crash. Study those crash pattern, and trade on it.
Alright, game plan for a next couple of days:
1. Strong short (puts) S&P and QQQQ at tomorrow's open. If there is no chance to take sizable profit before 1:00 pm; add puts on any strongness. If it provides plenty of opportunities, take profit (close all puts), and then go long (calls with small size and setup stop).
2. Watch out for possible down turn after 1 pm. If it goes up and turns down, close call positions if they are still profitable.
3. Wait for the uptrend, if it goes up again around 3 pm, load some calls; otherwise, if it is a confirmed down trend, do nothing.
3. If the 1st day closes lower, the next day will be the reverse. So put at the open after a bounce, then wait for reverse to close the puts and long at around noon time.
Overall rules:
1. Trade puts, but never hold it overnight.
2. Long calls (long term), if it can't be profitable, hold.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Friday 1-18-2008
7:00 PM
Another down day. It is the OE day, market openen very high, +180 on the Dow; but close with -50 point.
The normal trend of bear market is high in the morning and low in the afternoon. So a safe way to do is 1) short in the morning and cover in the afternoon. Or 2) long in the afternoon and close in the next morning. I think as the bottom is closing, way 2) is a feasible way to do.
Markets Diary
Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,185 1,107 424
Declining 2,098 1,933 837
Unchanged 63 118 80
Total 3,346 3,158 1,341
Issues at
New 52 Week High 10 3 36
New 52 Week Low 625 485 229
Share Volume
Total 2,448,557,870 2,951,512,104 67,032,236
Advancing 973,883,780 1,054,329,858 15,430,891
Declining 1,455,117,200 1,854,098,132 31,159,245
Unchanged 19,556,890 43,084,114 20,442,100
Another down day. It is the OE day, market openen very high, +180 on the Dow; but close with -50 point.
The normal trend of bear market is high in the morning and low in the afternoon. So a safe way to do is 1) short in the morning and cover in the afternoon. Or 2) long in the afternoon and close in the next morning. I think as the bottom is closing, way 2) is a feasible way to do.
Markets Diary
Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,185 1,107 424
Declining 2,098 1,933 837
Unchanged 63 118 80
Total 3,346 3,158 1,341
Issues at
New 52 Week High 10 3 36
New 52 Week Low 625 485 229
Share Volume
Total 2,448,557,870 2,951,512,104 67,032,236
Advancing 973,883,780 1,054,329,858 15,430,891
Declining 1,455,117,200 1,854,098,132 31,159,245
Unchanged 19,556,890 43,084,114 20,442,100
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Thursday 1-17-2008
6:00 PM
The market was down huge, the DOW downs 300 points. Everybody is guessing the bottom, so do I. I believe the temp bottom is near, and went long in those 2 days. But now, taking a huge loss. I am glad that AAPL is strong.
The market was down huge, the DOW downs 300 points. Everybody is guessing the bottom, so do I. I believe the temp bottom is near, and went long in those 2 days. But now, taking a huge loss. I am glad that AAPL is strong.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Wednesday 1-16-2008
9:30 AM
The previous 2 days were huge down days, yesterday, DOW went down 277 points. This morning, the future was very negative at one point, the dow was down 110 points. I think it will be a pin setup for today. Yesterday afternoon I went long, bought QLD and SSO. Now, they are under water. I will hold those positions and will be no actions for today. If at the close, the market went up, it should be a good reverse, and then look for additional long positions.
The previous 2 days were huge down days, yesterday, DOW went down 277 points. This morning, the future was very negative at one point, the dow was down 110 points. I think it will be a pin setup for today. Yesterday afternoon I went long, bought QLD and SSO. Now, they are under water. I will hold those positions and will be no actions for today. If at the close, the market went up, it should be a good reverse, and then look for additional long positions.
Monday, January 14, 2008
三线开花的原理和运用
1、20日均线----股价中期走势的生命线（20日均线的技术含义）：
20均线在低位拐弯向上，往往意味着股票价格走势是中线上升行情。20日均线在高位拐弯向下，往往意味这是中期调整趋势，投资者对此股票不介入或寻机出局。
2、20日均线的作用：
① 确定中期趋势。20日均线低位拐弯，中期趋势的跟踪线。
② 确定买入点。股票价格低位放量上涨突破20日均线，缩量回跌调整到20日均线时的买入点。
③ 确定卖点。大多数情况下（除急庄爆涨外）在股票价格远离20日均线20％－30％之间获利了结是个不错的卖点。
④ 确定止损点。大幅上涨后20日均线拐弯向下时，应短期止损离场出局或不介入
120日均线--半年线--脊梁线
120日均线的作用：
（1）助涨作用.当120日均线处于上涨状态时，有助涨作用
2）重压作用。当120日均线处于下降趋势时，120日均线对股票价格走势具有重压作用。
（3）确定买入时机。利用120日均线处于上涨趋势时，对股票价格走势具有的助涨作用，来确定买点。即以120日均线作为支撑线，当股价回跌到120日附近时买入。
250日均线--年线--牛熊线
250日均线的趋势方向和股票价格升破或跌破250日均线，有着重要的技术分析意义。如果市场中有一大批股票出现这样的走势，说明就要有一波行情了，或者市场中就要出现新的炒作题材了。
250日均线的作用与120日均线的作用非常类似。
支撑作用：即处于上升状态的250日均线对股价有支撑作用。
压力作用：即处于下降状态的250日均线对股价有压力作用，突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。因此在250日均线走平或向上之前，都不能介入，否则会屡买屡套，损失了金钱和时间
如何判别和确认股票价格升破250日均线对股价的压力开始走牛？
（1）突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。带量升破250均线的压力和250均线已调头向上，是判断股票走牛的关键。此时股价即使再度跌破250均线其跌幅亦往往有限，可以认为是股票价格走牛的回档走势。
（2）形态特征：
250日均线跌势趋缓，股价放量突破250日均线的压力，已经在250日均线之上运行。股价即使随后跌破250日均线，但成交量同时萎缩，显示卖压极小。股价重新放量回升、站稳在250日均线之上时，表明股价已探明底部，此时可放心介入。
20日与120日均线金叉穿越
(1)20日均线有效金叉120日均线是股票发生转势的买入信号？有效是指叉后量
(2)当股票价格走势上穿了120日均线，成交量有所放大，说明了股价已经摆脱了120日均线的压力，股价走势有趋活的迹象。（股价上穿）
(3)随后20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉，就是确认了这种趋势，这时就是买入股票的信号。（20日均线上穿）
(4)穿越时或穿越后若有成交量明显放大的配合，则这个买入信号的可靠性是极高的。
(5)当20日均线有效金叉120日均线时，往往意味着随后有一段不小的上升行情
20日均线金叉120日均线有哪几种形态？
① 回头望月.<股价回落盘整>
其技术走势形态特征为：
1>股价突破120日均线压力，在120日线上盘整.
2>当20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉买入点时，股票价格走势缩量回落也宣告结束，开始形成上涨的转点；
3>随后股票成交量放大，股票价格走势开始形成大幅的上涨行情。
如何确认回头望月的金叉穿越是否有效？
需要看随后一两个交易日是否有成交量放大的配合，若叉后有量，则回头望月形态成立
② 快马加鞭。<股价高位横盘>
股票价格前期已经穿越了120日均线的压制，处于盘整的走势，此时20日均线正在穿越120日均线。股价升破120日均线的压力后，往往并不回跌调整，多是高位横向整理，等待着20日均线穿越120均线，而在20日均线穿越20均线的叉点日，出现的是放量拉升的状态。
③ 顺水推舟。<股不回跌,不横盘><容易失败的形态>
当20日均线穿越120均线，形成金叉穿越时，其股价形态，并不象快马加鞭那样迫不急待的上涨，也不象回头望月走势那样有明显的回跌砍确认走势，而是顺其自然的让20日均线与120均线形成金叉穿越，在穿越后成交量往往出现温和和放大，股票价格走势也不象前两种形态那样出现快速上涨。
顺水推舟的走势形态，给出的买入信号可操作的时间长，股票价位较低，买入的股价安全性较好。但这样的买点需要有一定的耐性，顺水推舟的技术形态在随后的走势中变数较多，有些会出现失败的走势，应引起注意。
如何判断顺水推舟形态的成立？
要依靠股价和成交量的关系，尤其是有没有叉后量出现。
如何操作顺水推舟技术形态的股票？
顺水推舟形成后投资者的参考线就是120均线破不破？20日均线的走势方向是投资者的方向。
20日均线上穿120日均线总结。
三种穿越形态都需要成交量的确认。当股票在发出叉点买入信号时买入了股票，如何判别我们买入的股票就会走出这三种形态来呢？只需观察随后几天的成交量的变化，若成交量有放大，形成了叉后量现象，则说明你操作成功。若随后的成交量没有明显放大，则说明你买入的这只股票并不是现在市场的热点，骑大黑马可能性比较低，但获些小利离场还是可以的。投资者在分析单个股票走势图时，若发现即将大量出现20日均线穿越120日均线前期走势的股票时，往往意味着不久将有一波大行情出现。
抄底技巧----120跳马
1、120跳马的形态定义？
在前面的股价走势中，股价和20日均线120均线形成了顺水推舟、回头望月的走势形态，股票价格走势经过一定幅度的放量上涨后进入盘整过程，无量连续阴线下跌，突然在某一价位（即120日均线附近）受到强支撑，股票价格走势又开始放量上涨，随后还有大幅的上涨行情。
2、120跳马的形态的先期条件？
（1）股票价格的前期走势，应形成了20日均线穿越120日均线的黄金交叉走势形态。
（2）由于穿越后成交量并没有放得很大，股价没有大幅上涨。
（3）穿越后，出现的是缓慢盘升行情或横盘整理的走势，这是跳马形态必不可少的。
（4）无量的连续小中阴线的下跌。“无量”说明主力并不是在出货，实际是庄家的洗盘动作。
120跳马先期形态的作用？
(1）是股价蓄势的过程；
（2）是调整均线系统的过程；
（3）往往是庄家主力在耐心吸筹的过程。
120跳马中250日均线的作用也非常重要？
当250日均线与120日均线相距不远，与120日均线形成双支撑，这样，股价触到120日均线附近反弹，则更加有力可靠。
20日均线与120均线形成死叉的警示信号 （包括大盘和个股）
提示：预示着大暴跌即将来临。20线触120线反弹就是120跑马，向下死叉则是警示信号
20日与250日均线交叉的市场变幻
提示：20日与250日均线的交叉关系非常类似于20日120日均线的关系
20日均线与250日均线死亡交叉的滞后特性？ 即不能用该死亡交叉来预测股票价格还要下跌.
20日均线突破250日均线时的黄金交叉点是最佳的买入点。
在形态特征上，20日均线与250日均线形成的金叉穿越的技术走势中，与20日均线金叉穿越120日均线形成的技术走势非常的相似，也有“回头望月”和“顺水推舟”，而出现“快马加鞭”的技术走势不太常见。
1、三线开花的含义？
20、120、250这三条均线经过金叉穿越后，像开喇叭花一样，形成极度分离的多头排列的特殊的技术形态，这就叫三线开花。
2.三线开花的具体形态？
并线三线开花、顺向三线开花和逆向三线开花。这三种技术走势形态都十分有效的预测股票价格走势的技术形态
1>并线三线开花？其形态一旦成立有较大的获利空间，是大黑马的摇篮<120日和250日极度平行状态>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是处于极度接近的平行状态，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线的技术走势，形成均线的金叉穿越。
穿越后如果股票价格走势出现大幅放量的上涨行情，就预示并线三线开花走势成立，并将预示均线系统将要“开大花”，其隐含的技术意义就是股票价格将要大幅上涨。
2>顺向三线开花？其形态一旦成立也有较大的获利空间<120日和250日金叉先>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是顺向交叉的状态，即120日均线从下向上穿越250日均线，形成两条长期均线的黄金交叉，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线交叉点的技术走势形态。（交叉点即买入信号）
形成顺向三线开花的技术走势，并且在穿越的过程中成交量有效放大，就预示顺向三线开花走势成立。
3>逆向三线开花？一旦形态成立，预示股票将要走牛<120日和250日死叉先>
逆向三线开花，是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线形成死亡交叉，即120日均线下穿250日均线，此时20日均线由下向上穿越这个交叉点的技术走势形态。
形成逆向三线开花形态，预示股票将要走牛，但在20日均线穿越120日均线和250日线交叉点时，应有成交量有效放大的支持，这样逆向三线开花形态才成立。
是不是所有的金叉点都可买入股票?
特殊的均线穿越金叉点不是买点，反而是卖点的走势形态。
首先，是行情突然暴发，形成暴涨行情，当20日均线上穿120日均线和250日均线即形成金叉穿越时，股价也到了最高位；
其次，其前期的走势形态既不是“回头望月”也不是“顺水推舟”和“快马加鞭”，若说是“快马加鞭”则没有“突破大均线后的盘整走势”形态，所以这是一种特殊形态；
第三，这种金叉穿越形态中，有时20日均线并不是顺其自然的与大均线形成金叉穿越，而是被强行的“提带”与大均线来形成“金叉穿越”。有一种强扭瓜的味道，由于这种“均线金叉穿越”使改变的均线形态变成了目的，既然目的已经达到，也就失去了目标，因此这种金叉穿越点就不是买点反而是卖点了。
120日均线与250日均线金叉买点
120日与250日均线的金叉买点获利技巧（短线快速暴利买点）:120日均线上穿250日均线，形成黄金交叉，此时若股票价格反而是下跌状态，并回跌到120日与250日均线的交叉点附近时，这是一个短线快速获暴利的绝佳买入点。
长牛股的基础：两线顺向火车轨
当120日均线上穿250日均线后，120日均线和250日均线呈现顺向排列走势，即120日均线在上，250日均线在下，出现多头排列所以叫顺向排列。在以后的价格走势中，股票价格在120日均线之上，120日均线与250日均线都呈现平稳的上涨走势，两条线近乎于平行线，这样的股票价格走势图形，叫做“两线顺向火车轨走势”。
90周线特殊形态：周线三线开花
周线三线开花，是以周线系统中的主要均线参数即5周线、20周线和90周线为主，构成类似于1250日线系统的“三线开花”形态时，这时的周线走势形态就叫做“周线三线开花”。也就是说20周线与90周线处于并线状态或顺向交叉状态，此时5周线几乎同时上穿20周线和90周线，形成了一个多头发散的均线排列组合状态。
周线三线开花的重要使用技巧：在使用日线三丝开花时，注意周线三线开花是否也支持。
20均线在低位拐弯向上，往往意味着股票价格走势是中线上升行情。20日均线在高位拐弯向下，往往意味这是中期调整趋势，投资者对此股票不介入或寻机出局。
2、20日均线的作用：
① 确定中期趋势。20日均线低位拐弯，中期趋势的跟踪线。
② 确定买入点。股票价格低位放量上涨突破20日均线，缩量回跌调整到20日均线时的买入点。
③ 确定卖点。大多数情况下（除急庄爆涨外）在股票价格远离20日均线20％－30％之间获利了结是个不错的卖点。
④ 确定止损点。大幅上涨后20日均线拐弯向下时，应短期止损离场出局或不介入
120日均线--半年线--脊梁线
120日均线的作用：
（1）助涨作用.当120日均线处于上涨状态时，有助涨作用
2）重压作用。当120日均线处于下降趋势时，120日均线对股票价格走势具有重压作用。
（3）确定买入时机。利用120日均线处于上涨趋势时，对股票价格走势具有的助涨作用，来确定买点。即以120日均线作为支撑线，当股价回跌到120日附近时买入。
250日均线--年线--牛熊线
250日均线的趋势方向和股票价格升破或跌破250日均线，有着重要的技术分析意义。如果市场中有一大批股票出现这样的走势，说明就要有一波行情了，或者市场中就要出现新的炒作题材了。
250日均线的作用与120日均线的作用非常类似。
支撑作用：即处于上升状态的250日均线对股价有支撑作用。
压力作用：即处于下降状态的250日均线对股价有压力作用，突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。因此在250日均线走平或向上之前，都不能介入，否则会屡买屡套，损失了金钱和时间
如何判别和确认股票价格升破250日均线对股价的压力开始走牛？
（1）突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。带量升破250均线的压力和250均线已调头向上，是判断股票走牛的关键。此时股价即使再度跌破250均线其跌幅亦往往有限，可以认为是股票价格走牛的回档走势。
（2）形态特征：
250日均线跌势趋缓，股价放量突破250日均线的压力，已经在250日均线之上运行。股价即使随后跌破250日均线，但成交量同时萎缩，显示卖压极小。股价重新放量回升、站稳在250日均线之上时，表明股价已探明底部，此时可放心介入。
20日与120日均线金叉穿越
(1)20日均线有效金叉120日均线是股票发生转势的买入信号？有效是指叉后量
(2)当股票价格走势上穿了120日均线，成交量有所放大，说明了股价已经摆脱了120日均线的压力，股价走势有趋活的迹象。（股价上穿）
(3)随后20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉，就是确认了这种趋势，这时就是买入股票的信号。（20日均线上穿）
(4)穿越时或穿越后若有成交量明显放大的配合，则这个买入信号的可靠性是极高的。
(5)当20日均线有效金叉120日均线时，往往意味着随后有一段不小的上升行情
20日均线金叉120日均线有哪几种形态？
① 回头望月.<股价回落盘整>
其技术走势形态特征为：
1>股价突破120日均线压力，在120日线上盘整.
2>当20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉买入点时，股票价格走势缩量回落也宣告结束，开始形成上涨的转点；
3>随后股票成交量放大，股票价格走势开始形成大幅的上涨行情。
如何确认回头望月的金叉穿越是否有效？
需要看随后一两个交易日是否有成交量放大的配合，若叉后有量，则回头望月形态成立
② 快马加鞭。<股价高位横盘>
股票价格前期已经穿越了120日均线的压制，处于盘整的走势，此时20日均线正在穿越120日均线。股价升破120日均线的压力后，往往并不回跌调整，多是高位横向整理，等待着20日均线穿越120均线，而在20日均线穿越20均线的叉点日，出现的是放量拉升的状态。
③ 顺水推舟。<股不回跌,不横盘><容易失败的形态>
当20日均线穿越120均线，形成金叉穿越时，其股价形态，并不象快马加鞭那样迫不急待的上涨，也不象回头望月走势那样有明显的回跌砍确认走势，而是顺其自然的让20日均线与120均线形成金叉穿越，在穿越后成交量往往出现温和和放大，股票价格走势也不象前两种形态那样出现快速上涨。
顺水推舟的走势形态，给出的买入信号可操作的时间长，股票价位较低，买入的股价安全性较好。但这样的买点需要有一定的耐性，顺水推舟的技术形态在随后的走势中变数较多，有些会出现失败的走势，应引起注意。
如何判断顺水推舟形态的成立？
要依靠股价和成交量的关系，尤其是有没有叉后量出现。
如何操作顺水推舟技术形态的股票？
顺水推舟形成后投资者的参考线就是120均线破不破？20日均线的走势方向是投资者的方向。
20日均线上穿120日均线总结。
三种穿越形态都需要成交量的确认。当股票在发出叉点买入信号时买入了股票，如何判别我们买入的股票就会走出这三种形态来呢？只需观察随后几天的成交量的变化，若成交量有放大，形成了叉后量现象，则说明你操作成功。若随后的成交量没有明显放大，则说明你买入的这只股票并不是现在市场的热点，骑大黑马可能性比较低，但获些小利离场还是可以的。投资者在分析单个股票走势图时，若发现即将大量出现20日均线穿越120日均线前期走势的股票时，往往意味着不久将有一波大行情出现。
抄底技巧----120跳马
1、120跳马的形态定义？
在前面的股价走势中，股价和20日均线120均线形成了顺水推舟、回头望月的走势形态，股票价格走势经过一定幅度的放量上涨后进入盘整过程，无量连续阴线下跌，突然在某一价位（即120日均线附近）受到强支撑，股票价格走势又开始放量上涨，随后还有大幅的上涨行情。
2、120跳马的形态的先期条件？
（1）股票价格的前期走势，应形成了20日均线穿越120日均线的黄金交叉走势形态。
（2）由于穿越后成交量并没有放得很大，股价没有大幅上涨。
（3）穿越后，出现的是缓慢盘升行情或横盘整理的走势，这是跳马形态必不可少的。
（4）无量的连续小中阴线的下跌。“无量”说明主力并不是在出货，实际是庄家的洗盘动作。
120跳马先期形态的作用？
(1）是股价蓄势的过程；
（2）是调整均线系统的过程；
（3）往往是庄家主力在耐心吸筹的过程。
120跳马中250日均线的作用也非常重要？
当250日均线与120日均线相距不远，与120日均线形成双支撑，这样，股价触到120日均线附近反弹，则更加有力可靠。
20日均线与120均线形成死叉的警示信号 （包括大盘和个股）
提示：预示着大暴跌即将来临。20线触120线反弹就是120跑马，向下死叉则是警示信号
20日与250日均线交叉的市场变幻
提示：20日与250日均线的交叉关系非常类似于20日120日均线的关系
20日均线与250日均线死亡交叉的滞后特性？ 即不能用该死亡交叉来预测股票价格还要下跌.
20日均线突破250日均线时的黄金交叉点是最佳的买入点。
在形态特征上，20日均线与250日均线形成的金叉穿越的技术走势中，与20日均线金叉穿越120日均线形成的技术走势非常的相似，也有“回头望月”和“顺水推舟”，而出现“快马加鞭”的技术走势不太常见。
1、三线开花的含义？
20、120、250这三条均线经过金叉穿越后，像开喇叭花一样，形成极度分离的多头排列的特殊的技术形态，这就叫三线开花。
2.三线开花的具体形态？
并线三线开花、顺向三线开花和逆向三线开花。这三种技术走势形态都十分有效的预测股票价格走势的技术形态
1>并线三线开花？其形态一旦成立有较大的获利空间，是大黑马的摇篮<120日和250日极度平行状态>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是处于极度接近的平行状态，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线的技术走势，形成均线的金叉穿越。
穿越后如果股票价格走势出现大幅放量的上涨行情，就预示并线三线开花走势成立，并将预示均线系统将要“开大花”，其隐含的技术意义就是股票价格将要大幅上涨。
2>顺向三线开花？其形态一旦成立也有较大的获利空间<120日和250日金叉先>
是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是顺向交叉的状态，即120日均线从下向上穿越250日均线，形成两条长期均线的黄金交叉，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线交叉点的技术走势形态。（交叉点即买入信号）
形成顺向三线开花的技术走势，并且在穿越的过程中成交量有效放大，就预示顺向三线开花走势成立。
3>逆向三线开花？一旦形态成立，预示股票将要走牛<120日和250日死叉先>
逆向三线开花，是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线形成死亡交叉，即120日均线下穿250日均线，此时20日均线由下向上穿越这个交叉点的技术走势形态。
形成逆向三线开花形态，预示股票将要走牛，但在20日均线穿越120日均线和250日线交叉点时，应有成交量有效放大的支持，这样逆向三线开花形态才成立。
是不是所有的金叉点都可买入股票?
特殊的均线穿越金叉点不是买点，反而是卖点的走势形态。
首先，是行情突然暴发，形成暴涨行情，当20日均线上穿120日均线和250日均线即形成金叉穿越时，股价也到了最高位；
其次，其前期的走势形态既不是“回头望月”也不是“顺水推舟”和“快马加鞭”，若说是“快马加鞭”则没有“突破大均线后的盘整走势”形态，所以这是一种特殊形态；
第三，这种金叉穿越形态中，有时20日均线并不是顺其自然的与大均线形成金叉穿越，而是被强行的“提带”与大均线来形成“金叉穿越”。有一种强扭瓜的味道，由于这种“均线金叉穿越”使改变的均线形态变成了目的，既然目的已经达到，也就失去了目标，因此这种金叉穿越点就不是买点反而是卖点了。
120日均线与250日均线金叉买点
120日与250日均线的金叉买点获利技巧（短线快速暴利买点）:120日均线上穿250日均线，形成黄金交叉，此时若股票价格反而是下跌状态，并回跌到120日与250日均线的交叉点附近时，这是一个短线快速获暴利的绝佳买入点。
长牛股的基础：两线顺向火车轨
当120日均线上穿250日均线后，120日均线和250日均线呈现顺向排列走势，即120日均线在上，250日均线在下，出现多头排列所以叫顺向排列。在以后的价格走势中，股票价格在120日均线之上，120日均线与250日均线都呈现平稳的上涨走势，两条线近乎于平行线，这样的股票价格走势图形，叫做“两线顺向火车轨走势”。
90周线特殊形态：周线三线开花
周线三线开花，是以周线系统中的主要均线参数即5周线、20周线和90周线为主，构成类似于1250日线系统的“三线开花”形态时，这时的周线走势形态就叫做“周线三线开花”。也就是说20周线与90周线处于并线状态或顺向交叉状态，此时5周线几乎同时上穿20周线和90周线，形成了一个多头发散的均线排列组合状态。
周线三线开花的重要使用技巧：在使用日线三丝开花时，注意周线三线开花是否也支持。
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Weekend 1-12-2008
For this month so far, I am wiped out again. I am back to zero and start over again for this month, which means, 0% gain so far.
Next week's game plan, keep it netural. I don't know if it will go up or down, since the TAs look flat. As I will be in training for Monday & Tueday. No trade for those 2 days.
1. Long EWZ and EWT, Short indices & stocks like PCU
2. Long indices and keep shorting RIMM.
Next week's game plan, keep it netural. I don't know if it will go up or down, since the TAs look flat. As I will be in training for Monday & Tueday. No trade for those 2 days.
1. Long EWZ and EWT, Short indices & stocks like PCU
2. Long indices and keep shorting RIMM.
世界上100个最热门的Web2.0网站
影片
* YouTube：是一個可以讓使用者免費上傳、觀賞、分享影片短片的熱門影片共享網站
* Meta Cafe：得到最好的網路上影片-搞笑錄影，驚奇短片，罕見電影
* Vimeo：分享你自己剪輯的短片。上傳你用自己的數位相機，手機，或攝影機拍攝後剪輯的短片，並透過Vimeo與大家分享。
* Daily Motion ︰發佈、標籤、整合並分享你的影片剪輯短片。
* Imeem：imeem 是一個社會媒體服務性質的網站。使用者互相觀看、傳送、分享各種各樣的媒體類型，包括部落格、圖片、音樂、影片。換個方式來說，imeem 是以媒體為中心的社群服務網站，在另一層意義上來說，為使用者提供了線上內容分享服務。
* ClipShack：ClipShack 是錄影愛好者的社群，使用者可以將自己製作的影片上傳給人們觀賞、討論，可以與朋友、家人共享短片，可以將這裡的影片放入你的部落格。
* vSocial：用最快，最方便的方法上傳、觀看、分享影片短片。
* Jumpcut：最好的線上製作、整合、分享電影和幻燈片的網站。這是絕無僅有的一個網站。
* Video Bomb：可過濾出網路上最熱門的影片短片︰您只要按一下『Incoming!』就能找到您最想要的東西。
* eyeSpot：拍攝、整合、分享你的影片。線上使用eyespot混合器來編輯並整合你的影片，音樂和圖片。免費與世界共享你的影片。
* revver：上傳，共享影片。
* Avidbeauty：Avid Beauty 是提供給iPod使用者的娛樂社群。提供下載到iPod上的部落格。同時為會員提供 Flickr 圖片， YouTube 影片和 LiveJournal integration 。
音樂
* last.fm：Last.fm是透過搜尋和增加你最喜歡的歌手來形成風格的動態音樂網站 。建立你自己的音樂資料庫並透過搜尋來尋找和你擁有相似音樂資料庫的同好。
* Musicovery：根據心情來發現新的歌曲，透過免費的網路收音機來瀏覽不同風格和時代的音樂。
* read.io：Read.io將RSS feeds轉換成Broadcast，由TextToSpeech轉播. 多語言支援.
* MusicStrands：使用MusicStrands搜尋新音樂。聽取片段，然後標出你不想購買的歌曲，或者在指定地點標出你想要購買的歌曲。接著從不同的賣主那裡購買你想要的音樂。
* PODZINGER：世界上第一個音樂，影片搜尋引擎。
* Upto11：Upto11使用標籤和隊列向您推薦新音樂。你可以建立個人工作頁面，分享你的推薦，標籤，播放清單。
* Pandora：Pandora可以透過你以前和現在的喜好來幫助你尋找並發現新的音樂。
即時通信
* Meebo：可以讓您收到任何地方的來訊息，支援 msn、 yahoo、 aol/aim、 google talk (gtalk)、jabber和icq。
* Joopz：允許使用者從網路上向個人及團體傳送簡訊，同時可以直接從網路上收到來自收件人來自個人電腦或 Mac 的回覆。Joopz web 的簡訊可以從世界上所有可以上網的設備上發給任何美國或加拿大的手機使用者。
* campfire：提供簡易的網路上商務聊天室。Campfire允許檔案共享，編輯，製作，為使用者提供一個安全的，密碼保護的聊天室。
* Goowy：提供免費網頁和flash電子郵件服務。使用者可以即時通訊，傳送電子郵件，聊天，更多。
* Gizmo：Gizmo Project使用你的電腦連線（寬頻或撥接），來與其他電腦使用者打電話。只要按一下滑鼠，你就可以和在地球任何地方的朋友，家人，同事通話，就是這麼簡單。你們可以清楚的聊天，聊多久都可以，免費﹗
* eBuddy：為所有人、所有地區提供網路上簡訊服務。
* e-messenger：e-Messenger 是一種方便使用者在不用安裝任何Plug-In或 Java 程式就可以同MSN、AOL 和Yahoo使用者聊天的應用軟體。當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
* ILOVEIM：eBuddy是線上提供 MSN、Yahoo 和 AIM (AOL)簡訊的網站.當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
圖片
* Flickr：最好的儲存、搜尋、整理和分享您的圖片的地方
* Zooomr：舉世最好的線上分享，搜尋，儲存，整理照片的網站。
* Slide：
* zotozoto：
* 23HQ：你的圖片不是和你喜歡的人分享，而是儲存在電腦硬碟上嗎？
* Mybloop：MyBloop- 免費共享圖片，音樂，影片。儲存量無限制，無須安裝軟體。
部落格
* Blogger：可以快速發表你的想法，與人們交流，更多。
* Weblogs, Inc：透過產業環境，創造使用者可以分享的產品。
* BlogCode：BlogCode.com是一個以StoryCode.com為模板，以快速、簡易、直覺的模式推薦部落格的網站。用它，你可以以你最喜歡的日誌（甚至你自己的日誌）為原點，來找到…
* blo.gs：透過這個網頁和電子郵件，你可以密切關注你最喜歡的日誌。你甚至可以在旁邊製作一個部落格清單清單，這樣你就可以知道哪些你喜歡的部落格更新了.
* BlogLines：免費網路上搜尋，訂閱，製作，分享新聞和部落格以及豐富的網站內容的網站。
書籤
* Digg：Digg 主要靠使用者自行加入內容。所有的內容都會被送到這個網站去分享、發現、加書籤，支援你所喜歡的文章。
* del.icio.us：社群性書籤管理器。你可以將書籤加入你的清單並將其加以分類。
* Reddit：Reddit可以搜尋網路上最新，最流行的書籍。輸入你正在看的書籍的連線，reddit 就能知道你喜歡什麼類型的書。
* StumbleUpon：StumbleUpon透過按一下頻率分析群眾對書的質量的評價。當你猶豫的時候，可以看看和你愛好相似的朋友們喜歡的書。
* Blinklist：真正的人們共享興趣的的網頁清單。為人們喜歡的，或準備稍後收藏的網站寫出了評價。
* Blummy：一個透過你的書籤工具欄，快速連線你喜歡的網頁的免費工具。在Blummy 上增加或製作幾個小Plug-In後，你幾乎可以做任何事︰增加圖片到Flickr， 增加站點到del.icio.us，在WIkipedia看文章，從上百個”blummlets”書籤中選擇你喜歡的，或者製作你自己的書籤。
* Techcrunch：TechCrunch是關於Web 2.0的產品及公司的部落格，大部分（技術分析）文章都是Michael Arrington所寫. 這個部落格第一次開始發表文章是在2005年6月11日。
* Furl：用Furl的簡易書籤，可以從所有網站連線你最喜歡的網頁書籤。透過Furl可以方便的儲存、做筆記、分享你儲存的連線、或瀏覽最熱門的書籤，來找到最新的或有意思的內容。
* Spurl：使用Spurl的免費線上書籤服務和搜尋引擎，你決不會再次無故無法進行網頁連線。只需按一下書籤本，Spurl就能快速儲存網址，同時透過您的喜好來推薦新文章。
* Trailfire：用於寫作，分享的軟體。
VOIP（網路電話）
* Jajah：jah是網路電話提供者，由澳洲人Roman Scharf和Daniel Mattes製作於2005年01月。Jajah 的總部位於美國加洲的Mountain View，和盧森堡。Jajah還有一個位於以色列的開發中心。
* skype：Skype可以免費下載，免費呼叫他人。Skype是IP語音軟體界的老大。
* Private Phone：擁有一個免費的當地語音電話號碼和訊息，你就可以線上查詢任何電話。
遊戲
* Trendio：Trendio.com 是一個線上的市場預測網站，使用者不是用真正的錢從公司購買股票，而是用虛擬貨幣購買有可靠新聞的項目的股票。可用到的內容包括時事政治，體育和娛樂。新聞中這些內容出現的越多，股票的價值就越高。目前這個網站使用大約三千個搜尋，來測量這些詞的價值.
* GameSnips：digg風格的線上遊戲清單，可以選擇最近更新的遊戲清單，或按一下率排列的清單。
* Pictaps：Roxik Pictaps - 畫一個小人，然後看（控制）他在3D界面中跳舞。
* Broadcast Game：這個廣播遊戲的目的是︰透過使用者所在的方位，把所有的電路和網路終端連線。而你需要做的僅僅是按一下或輪流按一下電路、終端，或網路中心。
* Pikipimp.com：想過要把圖片增加到你的相冊中去嗎？使用Pikpimp程式可以方便的將網路上任何圖片增加到相冊中。儲存相冊後就可以自由的將其加入你自己的網頁了。
* Mainada：喜歡畫漫畫和素描嗎？
wiki(維基百科）
* Wikipedia：最大的免費網路多語言支援百科全書。超過200萬個條目，並且數量持續增加中。
* LittleWiki：你可以在LittleWiki網站上建立公眾的或私人的維基網頁。Wiki是所有人都可以登入並編輯內容的網站，也就是說你可以編入和編輯所有你想增加的訊息，任意閱讀其他人編入的訊息。
* Wetpaint：Wetpaint動力網站集合眾人的智慧。Wetpaint的主要優勢在於允許所有人 特別是沒有技術能力的人 和有興趣，有激情的人一起，來創造並建設網站. 為了讓任何人都可以登入並編輯這個網站，Wetpaint連線了同種類型中最好的部落格、論壇及社群網站。
* JotSpot：使用者可以WYSIWYG編輯器來連線Jotspot的安全維基綜合網站，建設並分享這個網站。透過安裝各種各樣的應用軟體-項目管理器，公司目錄、Wiki、部落格、論壇投票、日曆等-來完善你的維基內容，然後邀請他人來投稿。
* PBWiki：製作一個免費的，密碼保護的Wiki網站就跟做一個花生醬三文治一樣容易。輕鬆上傳HTML，將檔案連線入你的網頁，合併RSS，等等。
辦公工具
* Zoho Office Suite：線上Word Processor（文字處理器）。
* Google Docs & Spreadsheets：使用Google Docs & Spreadsheets，您可以：
*
o 使用我們的線上編輯器來編排檔案，檢查拼寫，等等
o 上傳Word、OpenOffice、RTF、 HTML或text檔案
o 下載…
* Num Sum：簡易的網路共享電子製表軟體。
* Dictinary：線上字典。
* notifyr.org：Notifyr是一個任何人都可以輕鬆使用的工具，使用它，您可以每天在世界範圍內，輕鬆快速的接收所有網站的最新更新的檔案。網路螞蟻出了新股票？或新產品上市訊息？ 永遠為您提供最好的，免費的訊息。
* ThinkFree Office：你是否希望過可以在Linux系統上編輯Excel電子製表軟體？你是否希望過可以給同事看一份在電腦上的陳述，而不是用Powerpoint製作的？你是否希望過可以…
* Numly：提供web 2.0下一代的版權和DRM數位憑證。
* gOffice：免費的線上文字處理軟體，可輸出pdf或html格式的信件，允許個性化信紙模板。
RSS服務
* FeedBurner：FeedBurner為部落格、Broadcast、商業出版社擁有的內容創造更高的價值。我們將以高級feed管理技術，和熟練的期刊訂閱的投遞技巧，忠實的為您服務。
* Feed Digest：Feed Digest支援RSS和Atom feeds的剖析，再生及重新架構。你可以使用它將RSS或Atom feeds的內容轉移到你的網站。
* Attensa：Attensa, Inc.是一個製造RSS閱讀器，提供線上RSS聚合器，企業RSS服務和RSS軟體自動智能投遞的軟體公司。
* Tiny Tiny RSS：Tiny Tiny RSS是以網路的新聞feed網站為基礎。透過它你可以閱讀任何地區的新聞，並且它給人的感覺就像桌面的一個應用程式一樣。
* Feed43：免費線上（在不影響您工作的狀態下）轉換網頁為RSS feed。
* Feed Mailer：直接向您傳送電子郵件。(感謝 John)
電子郵件
* Gmail：是一種實驗性質的網路電子郵件，建立它的目的在於可以讓你永遠沒有必要刪除郵件，並且總是可以找到你想找到的郵件。
* 30 Gigs：30Gigs.com是只有接到邀請才能註冊的網路電子郵件。想想看，足足30G的空間。
* Zookoda：專門提供給用電子郵件來行銷的部落格。Zookoda以傳送電子郵件的方法，為您部落格的訪客提供您的部落格的每日，每周或每月摘要。
* Sprout：為您管理電子郵件銷售和服務業務。不需要IT部門，郵件屋可以幫您整理郵件並提供回覆建議，節約您的時間，並讓您與您的客戶保持緊密的聯繫。不需要做任何設置，只需幾分鐘就可以迅速啟動。
* Gawab：提供有特色的電子郵件服務，支援POP/SMTP.
新聞
* NewsGator：在同一個地方就可以閱讀所有你喜歡的新聞，網頁和部落格。
* newsvine.com：用Newsvine追蹤突發新聞：先在”The Wire”上閱讀AP和ESPN上的一連串相關新聞，然後在”The Vine”上閱讀使用者發表的內容和專欄。接著透過評論或投票與其他讀者交流，最後在Newsvine上寫或者改進自己的專欄。
* Gabbr：Gabbr是一個社群新聞和部落格網路。使用者可以保存和共享他們喜歡的新聞摘要和部落格日誌。
* wired：新聞網站和期刊，涵蓋了技術，文化，商務，政治等方面的新聞。
* Clipmarks：線上新聞焦點集?
檔案共享
* Box.Net：免費線上儲存、分享檔案的網站。您可以在我們的網路硬碟上儲存，瀏覽，分享檔案，也可以檢索檔案，圖片，檔案
* AllPeers：無限制的私人網路硬碟。任意分享私人圖片。不需要記憶密碼，沒有公用登入通道。不需要上傳就可以分享你的影片-節省主機內存，節約時間。私有並且安全。沒有間諜Plug-In，沒有廣告Plug-In，沒有討厭的廣告。
* MailBigFile：提供可以共享檔案的網路硬碟。
其他
* Live：微軟的Web 2.0入口網站 。
* LinkedIn：類似Facebook，為商業業務人員提供。用它為自己建立一個商業網，來增加尋致毢捅粌l佣的可能性，或使用它來與重要商務客戶保持聯繫。
* BaseCamp：簡單的項目管理，黑清單，記數器，時間線，檔案共享，日曆，等等。Basecamp適用於為大小項目的負責人，提供解決關於交流，合作，組織的方法。
* Side Job Track：為獨立承包商提供工作跟蹤服務。Sidejobtrack為商品，服務，鐘點服務提供並管理發票，並會報付款和進帳的資金流動路線。
* Kayak.com 搜尋上百個旅行網站為您的飛機旅行和價位提供更多選擇。搜尋和預定機票是完全免費的，因為我們不是旅行社。
* TravBuddy 探險者的網站。使用這個網站的你不需要周遊世界。可能你只是想分享一下一個當地你喜歡的飯館，或者是上星期在附近發現的一個適合觀看日落的地方。不管你是在家還是在國外尋找，發現的樂趣是相同的。對你來說司空見慣的東西，對旅行者來說可能是個驚喜呢。
* Wayfaring 是一個可以在Google Map上建立自己的路線，位址，標籤的有趣的地方。
* Omnidrive：和世界上第一個網路硬碟一樣，你可以把你硬碟中所有的檔案上傳到這個網站，支援所有平台。
* ma.gnolia：在網路上建立自己的網站及社群。
* Ajaxian：Ajax相關部落格。
* Web 2.0 Sites：Web 2.0網站目錄，所有Web 2.0網站的相關服務
* YouTube：是一個可以讓使用者免費上傳、觀賞、分享影片短片的熱門影片共享網站
* Meta Cafe：得到最好的網路上影片-搞笑錄影，驚奇短片，罕見電影
* Vimeo：分享你自己剪輯的短片。上傳你用自己的數位相機，手機，或攝影機拍攝後剪輯的短片，並透過Vimeo與大家分享。
* Daily Motion ︰發佈、標籤、整合並分享你的影片剪輯短片。
* Imeem：imeem 是一個社會媒體服務性質的網站。使用者互相觀看、傳送、分享各種各樣的媒體類型，包括部落格、圖片、音樂、影片。換個方式來說，imeem 是以媒體為中心的社群服務網站，在另一層意義上來說，為使用者提供了線上內容分享服務。
* ClipShack：ClipShack 是錄影愛好者的社群，使用者可以將自己製作的影片上傳給人們觀賞、討論，可以與朋友、家人共享短片，可以將這裡的影片放入你的部落格。
* vSocial：用最快，最方便的方法上傳、觀看、分享影片短片。
* Jumpcut：最好的線上製作、整合、分享電影和幻燈片的網站。這是絕無僅有的一個網站。
* Video Bomb：可過濾出網路上最熱門的影片短片︰您只要按一下『Incoming!』就能找到您最想要的東西。
* eyeSpot：拍攝、整合、分享你的影片。線上使用eyespot混合器來編輯並整合你的影片，音樂和圖片。免費與世界共享你的影片。
* revver：上傳，共享影片。
* Avidbeauty：Avid Beauty 是提供給iPod使用者的娛樂社群。提供下載到iPod上的部落格。同時為會員提供 Flickr 圖片， YouTube 影片和 LiveJournal integration 。
音樂
* last.fm：Last.fm是透過搜尋和增加你最喜歡的歌手來形成風格的動態音樂網站 。建立你自己的音樂資料庫並透過搜尋來尋找和你擁有相似音樂資料庫的同好。
* Musicovery：根據心情來發現新的歌曲，透過免費的網路收音機來瀏覽不同風格和時代的音樂。
* read.io：Read.io將RSS feeds轉換成Broadcast，由TextToSpeech轉播. 多語言支援.
* MusicStrands：使用MusicStrands搜尋新音樂。聽取片段，然後標出你不想購買的歌曲，或者在指定地點標出你想要購買的歌曲。接著從不同的賣主那裡購買你想要的音樂。
* PODZINGER：世界上第一個音樂，影片搜尋引擎。
* Upto11：Upto11使用標籤和隊列向您推薦新音樂。你可以建立個人工作頁面，分享你的推薦，標籤，播放清單。
* Pandora：Pandora可以透過你以前和現在的喜好來幫助你尋找並發現新的音樂。
即時通信
* Meebo：可以讓您收到任何地方的來訊息，支援 msn、 yahoo、 aol/aim、 google talk (gtalk)、jabber和icq。
* Joopz：允許使用者從網路上向個人及團體傳送簡訊，同時可以直接從網路上收到來自收件人來自個人電腦或 Mac 的回覆。Joopz web 的簡訊可以從世界上所有可以上網的設備上發給任何美國或加拿大的手機使用者。
* campfire：提供簡易的網路上商務聊天室。Campfire允許檔案共享，編輯，製作，為使用者提供一個安全的，密碼保護的聊天室。
* Goowy：提供免費網頁和flash電子郵件服務。使用者可以即時通訊，傳送電子郵件，聊天，更多。
* Gizmo：Gizmo Project使用你的電腦連線（寬頻或撥接），來與其他電腦使用者打電話。只要按一下滑鼠，你就可以和在地球任何地方的朋友，家人，同事通話，就是這麼簡單。你們可以清楚的聊天，聊多久都可以，免費﹗
* eBuddy：為所有人、所有地區提供網路上簡訊服務。
* e-messenger：e-Messenger 是一種方便使用者在不用安裝任何Plug-In或 Java 程式就可以同MSN、AOL 和Yahoo使用者聊天的應用軟體。當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
* ILOVEIM：eBuddy是線上提供 MSN、Yahoo 和 AIM (AOL)簡訊的網站.當你的學校或公司封鎖你使用IM，即使隔著防火牆，你也可以用Web版聊天。
圖片
* Flickr：最好的儲存、搜尋、整理和分享您的圖片的地方
* Zooomr：舉世最好的線上分享，搜尋，儲存，整理照片的網站。
* Slide：
* zotozoto：
* 23HQ：你的圖片不是和你喜歡的人分享，而是儲存在電腦硬碟上嗎？
* Mybloop：MyBloop- 免費共享圖片，音樂，影片。儲存量無限制，無須安裝軟體。
部落格
* Blogger：可以快速發表你的想法，與人們交流，更多。
* Weblogs, Inc：透過產業環境，創造使用者可以分享的產品。
* BlogCode：BlogCode.com是一個以StoryCode.com為模板，以快速、簡易、直覺的模式推薦部落格的網站。用它，你可以以你最喜歡的日誌（甚至你自己的日誌）為原點，來找到…
* blo.gs：透過這個網頁和電子郵件，你可以密切關注你最喜歡的日誌。你甚至可以在旁邊製作一個部落格清單清單，這樣你就可以知道哪些你喜歡的部落格更新了.
* BlogLines：免費網路上搜尋，訂閱，製作，分享新聞和部落格以及豐富的網站內容的網站。
書籤
* Digg：Digg 主要靠使用者自行加入內容。所有的內容都會被送到這個網站去分享、發現、加書籤，支援你所喜歡的文章。
* del.icio.us：社群性書籤管理器。你可以將書籤加入你的清單並將其加以分類。
* Reddit：Reddit可以搜尋網路上最新，最流行的書籍。輸入你正在看的書籍的連線，reddit 就能知道你喜歡什麼類型的書。
* StumbleUpon：StumbleUpon透過按一下頻率分析群眾對書的質量的評價。當你猶豫的時候，可以看看和你愛好相似的朋友們喜歡的書。
* Blinklist：真正的人們共享興趣的的網頁清單。為人們喜歡的，或準備稍後收藏的網站寫出了評價。
* Blummy：一個透過你的書籤工具欄，快速連線你喜歡的網頁的免費工具。在Blummy 上增加或製作幾個小Plug-In後，你幾乎可以做任何事︰增加圖片到Flickr， 增加站點到del.icio.us，在WIkipedia看文章，從上百個”blummlets”書籤中選擇你喜歡的，或者製作你自己的書籤。
* Techcrunch：TechCrunch是關於Web 2.0的產品及公司的部落格，大部分（技術分析）文章都是Michael Arrington所寫. 這個部落格第一次開始發表文章是在2005年6月11日。
* Furl：用Furl的簡易書籤，可以從所有網站連線你最喜歡的網頁書籤。透過Furl可以方便的儲存、做筆記、分享你儲存的連線、或瀏覽最熱門的書籤，來找到最新的或有意思的內容。
* Spurl：使用Spurl的免費線上書籤服務和搜尋引擎，你決不會再次無故無法進行網頁連線。只需按一下書籤本，Spurl就能快速儲存網址，同時透過您的喜好來推薦新文章。
* Trailfire：用於寫作，分享的軟體。
VOIP（網路電話）
* Jajah：jah是網路電話提供者，由澳洲人Roman Scharf和Daniel Mattes製作於2005年01月。Jajah 的總部位於美國加洲的Mountain View，和盧森堡。Jajah還有一個位於以色列的開發中心。
* skype：Skype可以免費下載，免費呼叫他人。Skype是IP語音軟體界的老大。
* Private Phone：擁有一個免費的當地語音電話號碼和訊息，你就可以線上查詢任何電話。
遊戲
* Trendio：Trendio.com 是一個線上的市場預測網站，使用者不是用真正的錢從公司購買股票，而是用虛擬貨幣購買有可靠新聞的項目的股票。可用到的內容包括時事政治，體育和娛樂。新聞中這些內容出現的越多，股票的價值就越高。目前這個網站使用大約三千個搜尋，來測量這些詞的價值.
* GameSnips：digg風格的線上遊戲清單，可以選擇最近更新的遊戲清單，或按一下率排列的清單。
* Pictaps：Roxik Pictaps - 畫一個小人，然後看（控制）他在3D界面中跳舞。
* Broadcast Game：這個廣播遊戲的目的是︰透過使用者所在的方位，把所有的電路和網路終端連線。而你需要做的僅僅是按一下或輪流按一下電路、終端，或網路中心。
* Pikipimp.com：想過要把圖片增加到你的相冊中去嗎？使用Pikpimp程式可以方便的將網路上任何圖片增加到相冊中。儲存相冊後就可以自由的將其加入你自己的網頁了。
* Mainada：喜歡畫漫畫和素描嗎？
wiki(維基百科）
* Wikipedia：最大的免費網路多語言支援百科全書。超過200萬個條目，並且數量持續增加中。
* LittleWiki：你可以在LittleWiki網站上建立公眾的或私人的維基網頁。Wiki是所有人都可以登入並編輯內容的網站，也就是說你可以編入和編輯所有你想增加的訊息，任意閱讀其他人編入的訊息。
* Wetpaint：Wetpaint動力網站集合眾人的智慧。Wetpaint的主要優勢在於允許所有人 特別是沒有技術能力的人 和有興趣，有激情的人一起，來創造並建設網站. 為了讓任何人都可以登入並編輯這個網站，Wetpaint連線了同種類型中最好的部落格、論壇及社群網站。
* JotSpot：使用者可以WYSIWYG編輯器來連線Jotspot的安全維基綜合網站，建設並分享這個網站。透過安裝各種各樣的應用軟體-項目管理器，公司目錄、Wiki、部落格、論壇投票、日曆等-來完善你的維基內容，然後邀請他人來投稿。
* PBWiki：製作一個免費的，密碼保護的Wiki網站就跟做一個花生醬三文治一樣容易。輕鬆上傳HTML，將檔案連線入你的網頁，合併RSS，等等。
辦公工具
* Zoho Office Suite：線上Word Processor（文字處理器）。
* Google Docs & Spreadsheets：使用Google Docs & Spreadsheets，您可以：
*
o 使用我們的線上編輯器來編排檔案，檢查拼寫，等等
o 上傳Word、OpenOffice、RTF、 HTML或text檔案
o 下載…
* Num Sum：簡易的網路共享電子製表軟體。
* Dictinary：線上字典。
* notifyr.org：Notifyr是一個任何人都可以輕鬆使用的工具，使用它，您可以每天在世界範圍內，輕鬆快速的接收所有網站的最新更新的檔案。網路螞蟻出了新股票？或新產品上市訊息？ 永遠為您提供最好的，免費的訊息。
* ThinkFree Office：你是否希望過可以在Linux系統上編輯Excel電子製表軟體？你是否希望過可以給同事看一份在電腦上的陳述，而不是用Powerpoint製作的？你是否希望過可以…
* Numly：提供web 2.0下一代的版權和DRM數位憑證。
* gOffice：免費的線上文字處理軟體，可輸出pdf或html格式的信件，允許個性化信紙模板。
RSS服務
* FeedBurner：FeedBurner為部落格、Broadcast、商業出版社擁有的內容創造更高的價值。我們將以高級feed管理技術，和熟練的期刊訂閱的投遞技巧，忠實的為您服務。
* Feed Digest：Feed Digest支援RSS和Atom feeds的剖析，再生及重新架構。你可以使用它將RSS或Atom feeds的內容轉移到你的網站。
* Attensa：Attensa, Inc.是一個製造RSS閱讀器，提供線上RSS聚合器，企業RSS服務和RSS軟體自動智能投遞的軟體公司。
* Tiny Tiny RSS：Tiny Tiny RSS是以網路的新聞feed網站為基礎。透過它你可以閱讀任何地區的新聞，並且它給人的感覺就像桌面的一個應用程式一樣。
* Feed43：免費線上（在不影響您工作的狀態下）轉換網頁為RSS feed。
* Feed Mailer：直接向您傳送電子郵件。(感謝 John)
電子郵件
* Gmail：是一種實驗性質的網路電子郵件，建立它的目的在於可以讓你永遠沒有必要刪除郵件，並且總是可以找到你想找到的郵件。
* 30 Gigs：30Gigs.com是只有接到邀請才能註冊的網路電子郵件。想想看，足足30G的空間。
* Zookoda：專門提供給用電子郵件來行銷的部落格。Zookoda以傳送電子郵件的方法，為您部落格的訪客提供您的部落格的每日，每周或每月摘要。
* Sprout：為您管理電子郵件銷售和服務業務。不需要IT部門，郵件屋可以幫您整理郵件並提供回覆建議，節約您的時間，並讓您與您的客戶保持緊密的聯繫。不需要做任何設置，只需幾分鐘就可以迅速啟動。
* Gawab：提供有特色的電子郵件服務，支援POP/SMTP.
新聞
* NewsGator：在同一個地方就可以閱讀所有你喜歡的新聞，網頁和部落格。
* newsvine.com：用Newsvine追蹤突發新聞：先在”The Wire”上閱讀AP和ESPN上的一連串相關新聞，然後在”The Vine”上閱讀使用者發表的內容和專欄。接著透過評論或投票與其他讀者交流，最後在Newsvine上寫或者改進自己的專欄。
* Gabbr：Gabbr是一個社群新聞和部落格網路。使用者可以保存和共享他們喜歡的新聞摘要和部落格日誌。
* wired：新聞網站和期刊，涵蓋了技術，文化，商務，政治等方面的新聞。
* Clipmarks：線上新聞焦點集?
檔案共享
* Box.Net：免費線上儲存、分享檔案的網站。您可以在我們的網路硬碟上儲存，瀏覽，分享檔案，也可以檢索檔案，圖片，檔案
* AllPeers：無限制的私人網路硬碟。任意分享私人圖片。不需要記憶密碼，沒有公用登入通道。不需要上傳就可以分享你的影片-節省主機內存，節約時間。私有並且安全。沒有間諜Plug-In，沒有廣告Plug-In，沒有討厭的廣告。
* MailBigFile：提供可以共享檔案的網路硬碟。
其他
* Live：微軟的Web 2.0入口網站 。
* LinkedIn：類似Facebook，為商業業務人員提供。用它為自己建立一個商業網，來增加尋致毢捅粌l佣的可能性，或使用它來與重要商務客戶保持聯繫。
* BaseCamp：簡單的項目管理，黑清單，記數器，時間線，檔案共享，日曆，等等。Basecamp適用於為大小項目的負責人，提供解決關於交流，合作，組織的方法。
* Side Job Track：為獨立承包商提供工作跟蹤服務。Sidejobtrack為商品，服務，鐘點服務提供並管理發票，並會報付款和進帳的資金流動路線。
* Kayak.com 搜尋上百個旅行網站為您的飛機旅行和價位提供更多選擇。搜尋和預定機票是完全免費的，因為我們不是旅行社。
* TravBuddy 探險者的網站。使用這個網站的你不需要周遊世界。可能你只是想分享一下一個當地你喜歡的飯館，或者是上星期在附近發現的一個適合觀看日落的地方。不管你是在家還是在國外尋找，發現的樂趣是相同的。對你來說司空見慣的東西，對旅行者來說可能是個驚喜呢。
* Wayfaring 是一個可以在Google Map上建立自己的路線，位址，標籤的有趣的地方。
* Omnidrive：和世界上第一個網路硬碟一樣，你可以把你硬碟中所有的檔案上傳到這個網站，支援所有平台。
* ma.gnolia：在網路上建立自己的網站及社群。
* Ajaxian：Ajax相關部落格。
* Web 2.0 Sites：Web 2.0網站目錄，所有Web 2.0網站的相關服務
Friday, January 11, 2008
Friday 1-11-2008
9:30 AM
The pre-market was down huge, over 150 points at once. Now it is moving back up. But I believe that market will be down today. So I have to hold all my long positions. If there is any profit, I will take. But I will keep the AAPL Feb call anyway until it breaks key support level..
The pre-market was down huge, over 150 points at once. Now it is moving back up. But I believe that market will be down today. So I have to hold all my long positions. If there is any profit, I will take. But I will keep the AAPL Feb call anyway until it breaks key support level..
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Thursday 1-10-2008
9:00 AM
It is short-term bull and mid-term bear. We are officially in bear market. For our 401K and other long term investment, I think to avoid this down turn will yield a better results. So the game plan is to move the current holding out, and move back in after July.
It is short-term bull and mid-term bear. We are officially in bear market. For our 401K and other long term investment, I think to avoid this down turn will yield a better results. So the game plan is to move the current holding out, and move back in after July.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Wednesday 1-9-2008
10:00 PM
The market got a rebounce, it reversed around 2:30 pm. The Dow touched Auguest 2007 low, and bounced upwards, and closed 150 points positive. But I don't believe it is the end of the down trend.
Overall, Ed Handley was right, but his timing is little bit off.
Today's Industry Performance:
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
Updated 1/9/2008
Best Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val(Bil)
5.7 -5.1 Comml Svcs-Schools 21 A+ 14 9 29
3.9 -27.8 Bldg-Mobile/Mfg & Rv 17 D- 179 102 5
3.2 -5.9 Computer-Manufacturers 12 A 31 7 342
3.1 2.4 Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod 29 A 17 13 85
2.7 -3.7 Aerospace/Defense 10 A- 43 77 215
2.4 -8.1 Medical/Dental-Supplies 15 B 66 79 45
2.3 0.7 Utility-Gas Distribution 33 A- 46 135 75
2.3 -0.7 Telecom-Services Frgn 46 A+ 12 22 1003
2.2 -15.7 Transportation-Truck 24 D+ 153 187 15
2.1 -21.7 Banks-Super Regional 15 D 165 176 347
Worst Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val (Bil)
-3.1 -25.7 Mining-Gems 5 E 188 82 3
-2.7 -24.2 Retail-Mail Order&Direct 12 D 161 148 24
-2.4 -5.2 Diversified Operations 51 A+ 13 66 1160
-2.0 -20.1 Transportation-Ship 49 C 120 21 12
-2.0 -24.3 Leisure-Movies & Related 21 D+ 151 107 24
-1.9 -28.5 Trucks & Parts-Hvy Duty 12 D- 176 32 39
-1.9 -26.5 Retail-Home Furnishings 19 E 187 195 15
-1.9 -19.9 Media-Newspapers 15 D- 173 169 16
-1.8 -21.0 Food-Dairy Products 8 A 28 12 5
-1.7 -18.8 Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg 33 C- 138 110 89
ADVANCES & DECLINES
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ BB
Advancing Issues 1,978 (58%) 679 (47%) 1,480 (47%) 543 (29%)
Declining Issues 1,378 (40%) 682 (47%) 1,579 (50%) 892 (48%)
Unchanged Issues 64 (2%) 91 (6%) 91 (3%) 442 (24%)
Total Issues 3,420 1,452 3,150 1,877
New Highs 44 59 53 168
New Lows 725 249 659 290
The market got a rebounce, it reversed around 2:30 pm. The Dow touched Auguest 2007 low, and bounced upwards, and closed 150 points positive. But I don't believe it is the end of the down trend.
Overall, Ed Handley was right, but his timing is little bit off.
Today's Industry Performance:
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
Updated 1/9/2008
Best Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val(Bil)
5.7 -5.1 Comml Svcs-Schools 21 A+ 14 9 29
3.9 -27.8 Bldg-Mobile/Mfg & Rv 17 D- 179 102 5
3.2 -5.9 Computer-Manufacturers 12 A 31 7 342
3.1 2.4 Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod 29 A 17 13 85
2.7 -3.7 Aerospace/Defense 10 A- 43 77 215
2.4 -8.1 Medical/Dental-Supplies 15 B 66 79 45
2.3 0.7 Utility-Gas Distribution 33 A- 46 135 75
2.3 -0.7 Telecom-Services Frgn 46 A+ 12 22 1003
2.2 -15.7 Transportation-Truck 24 D+ 153 187 15
2.1 -21.7 Banks-Super Regional 15 D 165 176 347
Worst Performing Industries in Daily % Change:
Daily
% Chg 3 Mo Ago
% Chg View
Chart O'Neil Industry Group Name No Of Stks
In Grp Grp
RS Rtg Grp Rank
Today Grp Rank
3 Mo Ago Grp Mkt
Val (Bil)
-3.1 -25.7 Mining-Gems 5 E 188 82 3
-2.7 -24.2 Retail-Mail Order&Direct 12 D 161 148 24
-2.4 -5.2 Diversified Operations 51 A+ 13 66 1160
-2.0 -20.1 Transportation-Ship 49 C 120 21 12
-2.0 -24.3 Leisure-Movies & Related 21 D+ 151 107 24
-1.9 -28.5 Trucks & Parts-Hvy Duty 12 D- 176 32 39
-1.9 -26.5 Retail-Home Furnishings 19 E 187 195 15
-1.9 -19.9 Media-Newspapers 15 D- 173 169 16
-1.8 -21.0 Food-Dairy Products 8 A 28 12 5
-1.7 -18.8 Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg 33 C- 138 110 89
ADVANCES & DECLINES
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ BB
Advancing Issues 1,978 (58%) 679 (47%) 1,480 (47%) 543 (29%)
Declining Issues 1,378 (40%) 682 (47%) 1,579 (50%) 892 (48%)
Unchanged Issues 64 (2%) 91 (6%) 91 (3%) 442 (24%)
Total Issues 3,420 1,452 3,150 1,877
New Highs 44 59 53 168
New Lows 725 249 659 290
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Tuesday 1-8-2008
7:00 AM
I don't think I will do anything today, since I will have a meeting at lunch time. Meanwhile,
- SHORT 1. Ships - tbsi, drys, dsx; 2. Solar - csun, jaso, tsl, spwr, flsr, and solf; 3. Financial - MS. And LONG healthcare ETF and Utility ETF.
- LONG healthcare ETF - XLV and IHF, med/device ETF - IHE, and Utility ETF - IDU and XLU.
2:00 PM
The market opened higher and came into flat right now. I believe the market will go higher for a very short period, i.e., a few days. If it takes yesterday's low, I will close all my long positions and go for short. Currently, I am long SP call, and short MS put. I am also holding the XLV (etf).
Monday, January 7, 2008
Monday 1-7-2008
9:45 AM
The market is in a definitely down trend until there is strong reverse force. For today, it should be a consolidation. I don't expect it goes down. In fact, I hope it goes up and recoup some loss of last week, and am still holding the qid. Meanwhile, I have just added a long position for energy-other play.
11:17 AM
I did some profitable trades on AAPL, 4Q, and SPY. I expect a bounce from here. So I just added USU as the energy play, I did sold AHGP which bought early this morning for a lose durning the morning session. The ship segment is just broken. Strong short after this bounce.
8:15 PM
The market is in tear. All the major trends are broken. So Short 2 segments: 1. Ships; 2. Solar tomorrow.
The market is in a definitely down trend until there is strong reverse force. For today, it should be a consolidation. I don't expect it goes down. In fact, I hope it goes up and recoup some loss of last week, and am still holding the qid. Meanwhile, I have just added a long position for energy-other play.
11:17 AM
I did some profitable trades on AAPL, 4Q, and SPY. I expect a bounce from here. So I just added USU as the energy play, I did sold AHGP which bought early this morning for a lose durning the morning session. The ship segment is just broken. Strong short after this bounce.
8:15 PM
The market is in tear. All the major trends are broken. So Short 2 segments: 1. Ships; 2. Solar tomorrow.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
观念, 市场, 资金管理
一言难尽… 常常一些观念都得到赔时才能领悟 , 有几点：
1、 决定自己要长期待在市场上，所以得有一套资金管理方式帮助你，保本永远是第一考量、稳定为其次、最大获利为终极目标，许多人本末倒置，将最大获利摆第一，必自毙!!
2、永远的学习、阅读、和思考，专家意见看法永远保持合理怀疑，非亲身印证，不可当做自己的工具观念，对自己提出问题，事后解读和印证，每日写交易日志，每次买进，都要问自己为什么买，卖出也要问，买进后想想，如果明日大跌该怎么办，明日大涨又该怎么办，一开始不可能做的很好，但目标是进步。
3、贪心只能用在大波段，平时蚕食，但记住一点，市场盘整时间一定比有趋势时间多，除非足够证据证明突破盘局，否则平时皆是当盘整操作. 换句话说，平时只赚一小段一小段利润，一般散户整天苦思如何赚整段，结果上去又下来永远等不到出场点 。不要幻想飙股会发生在自己身上，因为这样的期待会带来灾难!，做久了自然就有遇到飙股的运气来。
4、要有自己判断行情的能力，说什么都要有自己的想法和分析技巧，也就是学习逻辑的推演，这须要时间，例如当大家都说连战当选股市会涨，你相信吗？为什么？我认为谁当选都是跌，有没有可能？我认为3/13大跌618点，是本来就会跌，但跌幅就是"政治盘"，这是我的看法，你认为呢？每个人都该自我思考…
5、永远记住，最脆弱最无法信任的还是自我，将利润吐回在冲动性交易是多数人的命运，新手套头部，老手套反弹，行情怎么走归怎么走，别替自己说了一对借口撑到后来回头看又是套在头部....
6、不论思考、行为、感觉，赢家和输家是截然不同的，人性自然趋动于输家的思考模式和行为，想成功必须彻底跳脱，反省是关键，每月对帐单寄来，敢不敢仔细看它，会不会故意将它忘记期待下一笔雪齿？会不会赚了点钱就讲话大声起来了？个性的改变常是需要的 。
7、如果只是偶尔进出，大盘7000点当做分水岭，以下买，以上卖，几乎一定赚，想进进出出，就要下功夫，短线利润最高，但常常进出风险绝对是最大，短线交易技巧只有高手才值得追随，但市场上高手稀少难寻，会讲大话的没半个是，长线赚钱不难，短线赚钱很难，短线只能靠技术面，多看图，最好将它背在脑海中，技术面最重要的k线和均线，多下点功夫.
8、要有被打入输家的最坏打算，因为待在市场上久了，只有两种结果，大赚或大赔，但机率上大赔较可能.
9、大家用的技术面都差不多，法人用的和散户用的差不多；甚至主力用的和我们用的也差不多，但绩效怎么会差那么多？以前有个阿丁，外号一日丁，专门在技术指针快黄金交叉前大买，一买隔日开高指针真的交叉了，散户必追，结果它狂倒货，黄金交叉不到一天就结束了，主力可是动脑动的可以出国比赛了，散户通常较天真，不知市场险恶，赔了还搞不太懂，技术分析使用在于功力的深浅，不会用当然觉得没用.
10、要清楚别人的缺点在哪，自己的优点在哪。散户最大毛病就是，从头做多到尾，大盘上涨做多，盘整也做多，下跌也做多，一年到晚就是不停的买，这支不行换那支，那支不行再换那那支，翻翻线图，上市加上柜600支股票从10328下来后还一直涨的有几支？找到的机率有没有10%？ 买股票一定要看大盘啊，线型再怎么好，大盘不佳涨起来也有限，死多头才是真正要改的观念；尽量创造自己的优势，例如波段操作外，还有当冲的能力，非就是一定要当冲，而是对长、中、短线的整体概念..
11、当功力达到一个程度时，乐趣自然来，才能真的享受操作的乐趣和财富! 在此之前，就是付出，不断的付出，基本功的扎实度关系到未来操作的绩效。赚钱时要谦虚，等绩效到达50%时再来证明自己是高手...但对生手而言，只要懂一个简单的观念，绩效马上突飞猛进，就是"波段头部出场" 。何谓头部？ 头部和盘整区的情形很类似(突破后叫盘整，未突破叫头部)。基于"保本观念" ，任何"波段延升的盘整"，都当头部操作，这个概念"非常非常"重要!! 只要在高档盘整时看一个人怎么操作，就可以大概看出一个人平时绩效如何 。生手，在高档盘整时，只会抱牢做多(怕被洗出场)， 老手，懂的先退出或者盘时高出低进。 突破再追就好了嘛，且盘整时高出低进的策略，这段时间仍然在获利.. 策略可弥补判断上的不足.. 我的思考模式逻辑，很简单，都是从错误中修正得来的， 一开始时，很困难，也很累 。因为已经有一些错误观念(事后看来)，根深柢固在心里 。目的就是要找出错误打破它，并试着找出"市场的真理" 。
12.以技术而言，买在回档时是件"保险"的做法，但是否会回档、回档的价格、及回档后还会不会涨…是该考量的，回档时要明辨是不是真的"回檔"，只怕一路又跌回去… 不过这本来就有很多种"操法"，"追高杀低"有时也是好策略 。
13. 假突破的情形就是因为可能不小心触发停损单所引发的，向上突破应该是怎么卖都卖不下来，故一路涨上去… 一个新趋势的成形应该不会"不小心"，反而是已经成形后，会有"不小心或刻意"的超涨或超跌发生 。所以假突破总是比真突破多...
14. 看图表我们习惯由右向左看，但事实上，应该是由左向右看才对… 行情是一根一根填上去，要客观推测未来，是不能有太固执的成见…例如，许多人会在图形向上突破盘整区时建立多单， 思考上可能是，"因为盘整区上缘代表压力所在，突破代表有一股较强的买气趋动它向上走，此时建立多单，期待此趋势惯性的改变" 。但相反的，有时我反而会先建立空单， "因为盘整区上缘正是不易途破之压力，假突破情形较多，且除非强力突破，否则常会再回测一次，故建立空单，等待此惯性明显被改变时，再做修正"。
15. 看的对错并非赢或输的关键，只有输家才会将成败赌在一两次的交易， 斤斤计较于某一两次的胜败 。试着控制自己每笔最大亏损，任何情况皆不让其"破例" 。不用拿某一笔利润向自己或别人炫耀，因为赚100次和赚1次用的方法都是一样 。也不要因一两笔亏损就像战败的公鸡，亏损本来就是"交易的一部份"，它会永远跟随着你 。市场上，常看到一些人，赚个钱，讲话大声的要让全世界知道；赔钱时，这些人不发一语，眉头深锁。这样的态度只会让自己慢性的掉落至输家的深渊…没有人能在一开始面对亏损时就神态自若，要做到高手风范输赢套轧不行于色，非得经过一番生死觉悟啊，赔到人生变灰暗的那一剎那间，跳级关卡才会打开，否则平时进步如同龟爬，但出现这种难得的晋升转机时，许多人又常常放弃那样蜕变的机会，殊为可惜… 如果不幸的一开始就遭遇连续失败，那更是一个严苛的挑战和试炼 。"越挫越勇"的体会，在凡夫俗子生命中未曾出现过，因为太难熬了，讲难听点自作自受，投降是将问题解决一劳永逸的方法，大部份理性的人会选择如此；会牙根一咬抗战到底的，大概是因生命中不能忍受平凡吧。 这些体会在期货中表现的淋漓尽致，"高风险"三个字已不足以表现操作的难度，人性的考验在此表露无遗，难不是难在如何在1小时内赚50万元，而是难在如何在这1小时内让心脏不加速跳动，难在如何让人看不出你是赔了50万还是赚了50万…但这样的交易生活，对一个成功者来说，是世上最迷人的，是项永无止尽的挑战，更是了解自己最佳途径。虽然交易路途孤独而艰困，成功的果实只有成功者才知多么甜美，期货的高利润让很多人羡慕不已，我认为一点都不侥幸…许多人，只经历过一次失败就被击垮，常常不是金额的问题，而是心理太脆弱，禁不起打击，或许说一开始就不了解自己吧，不知道自己到底能掌握多少.. 并不知道自我的忍受极限在哪，一直认为自己很勇敢 。结果走势不如预期，不敢去想如果这次赔的话该怎么办，不敢去想如果行情走势更不利时心里的煎熬，一开始的获利让一个人放松了所有戒心，"反正摆着就会回来了"成为套牢时唯一策略，完全将命运交给市场，自己竟成为一旁观者，因为重头到尾除了打电话挂单外，看不出这部位的决定权是在操作者身上，看不出自己到底有没有参与交易，赔钱变成驼鸟，赚钱又变成狮子出来大吼展现英勇，这样的态度将成为市场上所谓的羊，如果八字差一点，变成了一头猪… 交易这行，心理课程是必修主科，但很少人会和我们分享那样难忘又难解的感觉， 我们只喜欢跟别人炫耀最美好的部份.. 好不容易在市场上学习到该有的正确观念，又好不容易学会了分析行情的技巧，更又好不容易研究出一段行情的可能走势， 嗅出波段头部出现，此时是最佳放空时机，竟眼睁睁的看着行情如预期般陨落，手上一个部位都没有，为什么？因为最佳放空时机的环境无法让人安心，基本面大好、人气沸腾到极点、偏空又会被笑、主流股最后喷出涨到天价、没有人和你是站在同一边的，根本没有勇气建立这么一个 "众人不看好"的部位，心理的难适让人害怕，新手不知"胜利的感觉正就是美妙在此"，不知"此时最大的敌人就是自己"，胜利已在面前等待，却没胆识去追寻… 生手以为赢家只不过是台会分析行情的计算机，控制情绪的重要性很少被人完整的描述，走过这条路很难相信，那些自吹自擂的人会是赢家，更会对市场上各种光怪的现像摇头，股票成为不折不扣的商品在贩卖，炫耀股市战果更成为自我价值提升的方式 。从期货市场跳回观看股市更是一阵毛骨耸然，期货1小时赔20%会让人惊醒，股市1年赔掉100%外加负债加利息，竟唤不醒一个人？! 风险观念，一般人非得大赔一次才会体会 。本来就不能看别人的分析结果进出， 因为，出场点才是致胜的关键，但一般解盘以进场点为主 。无法彻底了解别人真正讲的逻辑重点时，会断章取义 。要有自己的想法，真正意义在于，进出的准则可以拿捏的有依据 ，所以比较不会有悲剧发生，太相信别人的想法，如果对方是一般人，还好，因为你对他本来就怀疑 。如果太相信高手的预测，一旦出现错误，下场最惨，因为你已经完全信任他，错误发生时，无法立即更改，从头错到尾....技术分析的关键，在于对每段不同走势用的方法也不一样 。涨势有涨势的，跌势有跌势的，盘势有盘势的 。用的方法正不正确才是重点!情绪性、充动性交易是输家的创造者，如果我们回头翻翻交易记录， 将会发现， 真正伤害整体绩效的，正是那少数几笔大额的损失， 可能来自于试图摊平越陷越深的连续亏损， 也可能来自于原本小额亏损，不肯认赔最后变成无底洞的部位 。理想的资金控管是赢家的秘密，长期稳定获利的关键之一， 想成为赢家，你一定要有自己的资金管理办法，防止你陷入难以割舍的困境.. 仍然强调，情绪是交易的天敌，如果现在你还无法明确说出你的资金控管方法，或者完全无任何资金控管策略，纵使能够预测行情到90%的准确率，小心只要一次的翻船，10年来赚的可能一笔勾消..这告诉我们一件事，看多或看空，预测的准确度非赚钱的保证 。以前我就提过司马相的例子，他曾经神准过，但还是会赔光 。策略的拟订是最多人忽略的，也是最难的 。即使拟订好策略仍要经过不断的测试， 不要去怪行情怎么奇怪的那样走，那是因为我们的策略经不起考验 。一个好的策略甚至于可以在准确率只有3成的情况下还赚钱!我常强调不要去猜底部，这就是个很重要的策略 。我现在所提的这个策略重于预测的观念，非常非常重要 。 请注意，买进股票等它涨是件天经地义的事 。但务必思考，如果不涨，该怎么办 ，这就是策略 。玩死人的问题在于策略，不在预测对或错 。观念能否开窍在于几次的生死关头的觉悟，别人写再多神奇的文章也没有用。神奇T理论，Magic T Theory 。是出自于一位毕业于麻省理工学院的泰瑞.隆德利 。理论是说，在市场上涨过程和下跌过程所花的时间是一样的 。在市场上涨前一定有某种预兆，当市场准备就绪，资金累积， 能量蓄积完毕后，就会开始向上扬升 。T这个字母，左右两边等长，故他以此称之 。这理论实际上诉说了许多有关宇宙进行的一些规律 。 一个人进步最快的时后，不是在一路顺风时，而是在遭遇挫折时 。(大空头惨跌之后，常会走大多头？!) 当你活的够久，你会犯下所有的错误。 最后成功的人，常不是一路顺风，而是经历过无数的跌跌撞撞.. 没经历过挫折而一路顺风的人，常在某一次的失败中，阵亡出局。一个超大多头，常以最大的崩盘画下句点?! 费氏和T理论不只碰触到了股市的结构，人生也脱离不了... 15. 操盘较适合用艺术的角度切入剖析.. T理论和费氏，最让人感兴趣的不是数字部份， 是它所隐藏的哲学意义，满值得人深思的."完美常是不经意被创造出来的" 。对操作来说，为什么策略对我们是这么重要呢？ 因为，没有人可以100%的预测行情，假如有人可以办到，那根本就不需要策略了 。完全不会犯错的人，就是神 。但你我都会犯错，所以我们需要策略来帮助我们 。还记得万点时，我们将股票出清吧 。为什么要这样做呢？因为，这边已经形成了一个头了 。什么叫头？一段涨势，涨不动了，都可以怀疑它是头 。如果盘了一阵子后来又上去了，那原本涨不动的地方就变成所谓整理段 。但对操作策略来说，涨不动的地方，我们全部都要将它视为头部， 因为这样可以让我们规避掉下跌的风险， 就如同现在套牢在头部的人，都是因为认为股票会在万点再涨上去，所以抱牢， 但不管我们怎么认为，看多也好，看空也好，策略上，都该先退出持股观望。 同理，对下跌势来说，跌不下去的地方，都要将其视为整理段， 不能将其视为底部，因为底部只有一个，一般猜都会猜错 。即使看起来像底部，还是要将其当为整理段， 只能高出低进，不能买进抱牢，就像现在这边 。这是我们的标准策略 。
16. "策略的目的在让我们可以控制风险，而不是获取最大利润" 。底部在哪？这问题事实上根本就不重要，也不用知道，也没人知道 。专心在自己的买卖点上，何时可加码、何时该停损、如果涨上去该如何做….. 这才是较实际的… 有句操作名言，永远不要加码亏损的部位。这句话，太太重要了，但却是最多人忽略的 。我想这波下跌，很多人有深深的感受 。换言之，永远只加码赚钱的部位。 这句话的精神就在于，不让你的亏损部位有机会呈倍数成长。因为我们的资金是有限的，我们的判断不可能100%正确，为了考量风险，我们必须如此做 。 将一些利润搬过来抵销风险是不得已的做法， 因为我们的资金有限， 因为我们可能会犯错。 那些会弄到断头，会赔的一踏胡涂的最大问题，都是在策略 。看错行情，每个人都会， 但高手厉害的地方就是他可以承受不断的犯错， 策略的拟定，真的很重要...
17. 对一个操作者来说，手上有部位时的操作，和预测是完全两回事，判断的目的，在于让部位以最小风险的方式来得到最大利润，后势的判断就必须融入你的部位已发生的利润或亏损，所以会较复杂。当部位出现利润时，就让利润自行发展，只要自己设定个出场时机，决定在何种情况下获利出场，那这笔交易就算成功，并不需要一定要将如空头部位在最低点出场才算对，多赚少赚都是赚；相反地，当部位出现亏损，此时，我认为并不是要证明自己看法一定对的时候，将亏损部位做出正确的处理才是当务之急，越坚定自己一定对，小心亏损会悄悄地以doube的速度扩大，让你因一笔交易永远无法翻身 。
18. 看盘分两种，看的懂和看不懂，看不懂的看再多也没用，看的懂的，每天瞄一眼就够了 。
19. 赔钱有两个原因，一个是技术不好，另一个是心理不够健全易受影响 。 在此时，会对自己更加的了解，发现原来自己信心常是如此脆弱，了解自己才有办法将交易技术再做提升，许多老手卡在半路上不去，常是心理的问题，技术已到极至也没用，心理要去克服...
20. 策略上，操作不能在看似底部时放入所有资金，而是该一路加码上去的，势不对时，记得抽出资金速度要快 。
1、 决定自己要长期待在市场上，所以得有一套资金管理方式帮助你，保本永远是第一考量、稳定为其次、最大获利为终极目标，许多人本末倒置，将最大获利摆第一，必自毙!!
2、永远的学习、阅读、和思考，专家意见看法永远保持合理怀疑，非亲身印证，不可当做自己的工具观念，对自己提出问题，事后解读和印证，每日写交易日志，每次买进，都要问自己为什么买，卖出也要问，买进后想想，如果明日大跌该怎么办，明日大涨又该怎么办，一开始不可能做的很好，但目标是进步。
3、贪心只能用在大波段，平时蚕食，但记住一点，市场盘整时间一定比有趋势时间多，除非足够证据证明突破盘局，否则平时皆是当盘整操作. 换句话说，平时只赚一小段一小段利润，一般散户整天苦思如何赚整段，结果上去又下来永远等不到出场点 。不要幻想飙股会发生在自己身上，因为这样的期待会带来灾难!，做久了自然就有遇到飙股的运气来。
4、要有自己判断行情的能力，说什么都要有自己的想法和分析技巧，也就是学习逻辑的推演，这须要时间，例如当大家都说连战当选股市会涨，你相信吗？为什么？我认为谁当选都是跌，有没有可能？我认为3/13大跌618点，是本来就会跌，但跌幅就是"政治盘"，这是我的看法，你认为呢？每个人都该自我思考…
5、永远记住，最脆弱最无法信任的还是自我，将利润吐回在冲动性交易是多数人的命运，新手套头部，老手套反弹，行情怎么走归怎么走，别替自己说了一对借口撑到后来回头看又是套在头部....
6、不论思考、行为、感觉，赢家和输家是截然不同的，人性自然趋动于输家的思考模式和行为，想成功必须彻底跳脱，反省是关键，每月对帐单寄来，敢不敢仔细看它，会不会故意将它忘记期待下一笔雪齿？会不会赚了点钱就讲话大声起来了？个性的改变常是需要的 。
7、如果只是偶尔进出，大盘7000点当做分水岭，以下买，以上卖，几乎一定赚，想进进出出，就要下功夫，短线利润最高，但常常进出风险绝对是最大，短线交易技巧只有高手才值得追随，但市场上高手稀少难寻，会讲大话的没半个是，长线赚钱不难，短线赚钱很难，短线只能靠技术面，多看图，最好将它背在脑海中，技术面最重要的k线和均线，多下点功夫.
8、要有被打入输家的最坏打算，因为待在市场上久了，只有两种结果，大赚或大赔，但机率上大赔较可能.
9、大家用的技术面都差不多，法人用的和散户用的差不多；甚至主力用的和我们用的也差不多，但绩效怎么会差那么多？以前有个阿丁，外号一日丁，专门在技术指针快黄金交叉前大买，一买隔日开高指针真的交叉了，散户必追，结果它狂倒货，黄金交叉不到一天就结束了，主力可是动脑动的可以出国比赛了，散户通常较天真，不知市场险恶，赔了还搞不太懂，技术分析使用在于功力的深浅，不会用当然觉得没用.
10、要清楚别人的缺点在哪，自己的优点在哪。散户最大毛病就是，从头做多到尾，大盘上涨做多，盘整也做多，下跌也做多，一年到晚就是不停的买，这支不行换那支，那支不行再换那那支，翻翻线图，上市加上柜600支股票从10328下来后还一直涨的有几支？找到的机率有没有10%？ 买股票一定要看大盘啊，线型再怎么好，大盘不佳涨起来也有限，死多头才是真正要改的观念；尽量创造自己的优势，例如波段操作外，还有当冲的能力，非就是一定要当冲，而是对长、中、短线的整体概念..
11、当功力达到一个程度时，乐趣自然来，才能真的享受操作的乐趣和财富! 在此之前，就是付出，不断的付出，基本功的扎实度关系到未来操作的绩效。赚钱时要谦虚，等绩效到达50%时再来证明自己是高手...但对生手而言，只要懂一个简单的观念，绩效马上突飞猛进，就是"波段头部出场" 。何谓头部？ 头部和盘整区的情形很类似(突破后叫盘整，未突破叫头部)。基于"保本观念" ，任何"波段延升的盘整"，都当头部操作，这个概念"非常非常"重要!! 只要在高档盘整时看一个人怎么操作，就可以大概看出一个人平时绩效如何 。生手，在高档盘整时，只会抱牢做多(怕被洗出场)， 老手，懂的先退出或者盘时高出低进。 突破再追就好了嘛，且盘整时高出低进的策略，这段时间仍然在获利.. 策略可弥补判断上的不足.. 我的思考模式逻辑，很简单，都是从错误中修正得来的， 一开始时，很困难，也很累 。因为已经有一些错误观念(事后看来)，根深柢固在心里 。目的就是要找出错误打破它，并试着找出"市场的真理" 。
12.以技术而言，买在回档时是件"保险"的做法，但是否会回档、回档的价格、及回档后还会不会涨…是该考量的，回档时要明辨是不是真的"回檔"，只怕一路又跌回去… 不过这本来就有很多种"操法"，"追高杀低"有时也是好策略 。
13. 假突破的情形就是因为可能不小心触发停损单所引发的，向上突破应该是怎么卖都卖不下来，故一路涨上去… 一个新趋势的成形应该不会"不小心"，反而是已经成形后，会有"不小心或刻意"的超涨或超跌发生 。所以假突破总是比真突破多...
14. 看图表我们习惯由右向左看，但事实上，应该是由左向右看才对… 行情是一根一根填上去，要客观推测未来，是不能有太固执的成见…例如，许多人会在图形向上突破盘整区时建立多单， 思考上可能是，"因为盘整区上缘代表压力所在，突破代表有一股较强的买气趋动它向上走，此时建立多单，期待此趋势惯性的改变" 。但相反的，有时我反而会先建立空单， "因为盘整区上缘正是不易途破之压力，假突破情形较多，且除非强力突破，否则常会再回测一次，故建立空单，等待此惯性明显被改变时，再做修正"。
15. 看的对错并非赢或输的关键，只有输家才会将成败赌在一两次的交易， 斤斤计较于某一两次的胜败 。试着控制自己每笔最大亏损，任何情况皆不让其"破例" 。不用拿某一笔利润向自己或别人炫耀，因为赚100次和赚1次用的方法都是一样 。也不要因一两笔亏损就像战败的公鸡，亏损本来就是"交易的一部份"，它会永远跟随着你 。市场上，常看到一些人，赚个钱，讲话大声的要让全世界知道；赔钱时，这些人不发一语，眉头深锁。这样的态度只会让自己慢性的掉落至输家的深渊…没有人能在一开始面对亏损时就神态自若，要做到高手风范输赢套轧不行于色，非得经过一番生死觉悟啊，赔到人生变灰暗的那一剎那间，跳级关卡才会打开，否则平时进步如同龟爬，但出现这种难得的晋升转机时，许多人又常常放弃那样蜕变的机会，殊为可惜… 如果不幸的一开始就遭遇连续失败，那更是一个严苛的挑战和试炼 。"越挫越勇"的体会，在凡夫俗子生命中未曾出现过，因为太难熬了，讲难听点自作自受，投降是将问题解决一劳永逸的方法，大部份理性的人会选择如此；会牙根一咬抗战到底的，大概是因生命中不能忍受平凡吧。 这些体会在期货中表现的淋漓尽致，"高风险"三个字已不足以表现操作的难度，人性的考验在此表露无遗，难不是难在如何在1小时内赚50万元，而是难在如何在这1小时内让心脏不加速跳动，难在如何让人看不出你是赔了50万还是赚了50万…但这样的交易生活，对一个成功者来说，是世上最迷人的，是项永无止尽的挑战，更是了解自己最佳途径。虽然交易路途孤独而艰困，成功的果实只有成功者才知多么甜美，期货的高利润让很多人羡慕不已，我认为一点都不侥幸…许多人，只经历过一次失败就被击垮，常常不是金额的问题，而是心理太脆弱，禁不起打击，或许说一开始就不了解自己吧，不知道自己到底能掌握多少.. 并不知道自我的忍受极限在哪，一直认为自己很勇敢 。结果走势不如预期，不敢去想如果这次赔的话该怎么办，不敢去想如果行情走势更不利时心里的煎熬，一开始的获利让一个人放松了所有戒心，"反正摆着就会回来了"成为套牢时唯一策略，完全将命运交给市场，自己竟成为一旁观者，因为重头到尾除了打电话挂单外，看不出这部位的决定权是在操作者身上，看不出自己到底有没有参与交易，赔钱变成驼鸟，赚钱又变成狮子出来大吼展现英勇，这样的态度将成为市场上所谓的羊，如果八字差一点，变成了一头猪… 交易这行，心理课程是必修主科，但很少人会和我们分享那样难忘又难解的感觉， 我们只喜欢跟别人炫耀最美好的部份.. 好不容易在市场上学习到该有的正确观念，又好不容易学会了分析行情的技巧，更又好不容易研究出一段行情的可能走势， 嗅出波段头部出现，此时是最佳放空时机，竟眼睁睁的看着行情如预期般陨落，手上一个部位都没有，为什么？因为最佳放空时机的环境无法让人安心，基本面大好、人气沸腾到极点、偏空又会被笑、主流股最后喷出涨到天价、没有人和你是站在同一边的，根本没有勇气建立这么一个 "众人不看好"的部位，心理的难适让人害怕，新手不知"胜利的感觉正就是美妙在此"，不知"此时最大的敌人就是自己"，胜利已在面前等待，却没胆识去追寻… 生手以为赢家只不过是台会分析行情的计算机，控制情绪的重要性很少被人完整的描述，走过这条路很难相信，那些自吹自擂的人会是赢家，更会对市场上各种光怪的现像摇头，股票成为不折不扣的商品在贩卖，炫耀股市战果更成为自我价值提升的方式 。从期货市场跳回观看股市更是一阵毛骨耸然，期货1小时赔20%会让人惊醒，股市1年赔掉100%外加负债加利息，竟唤不醒一个人？! 风险观念，一般人非得大赔一次才会体会 。本来就不能看别人的分析结果进出， 因为，出场点才是致胜的关键，但一般解盘以进场点为主 。无法彻底了解别人真正讲的逻辑重点时，会断章取义 。要有自己的想法，真正意义在于，进出的准则可以拿捏的有依据 ，所以比较不会有悲剧发生，太相信别人的想法，如果对方是一般人，还好，因为你对他本来就怀疑 。如果太相信高手的预测，一旦出现错误，下场最惨，因为你已经完全信任他，错误发生时，无法立即更改，从头错到尾....技术分析的关键，在于对每段不同走势用的方法也不一样 。涨势有涨势的，跌势有跌势的，盘势有盘势的 。用的方法正不正确才是重点!情绪性、充动性交易是输家的创造者，如果我们回头翻翻交易记录， 将会发现， 真正伤害整体绩效的，正是那少数几笔大额的损失， 可能来自于试图摊平越陷越深的连续亏损， 也可能来自于原本小额亏损，不肯认赔最后变成无底洞的部位 。理想的资金控管是赢家的秘密，长期稳定获利的关键之一， 想成为赢家，你一定要有自己的资金管理办法，防止你陷入难以割舍的困境.. 仍然强调，情绪是交易的天敌，如果现在你还无法明确说出你的资金控管方法，或者完全无任何资金控管策略，纵使能够预测行情到90%的准确率，小心只要一次的翻船，10年来赚的可能一笔勾消..这告诉我们一件事，看多或看空，预测的准确度非赚钱的保证 。以前我就提过司马相的例子，他曾经神准过，但还是会赔光 。策略的拟订是最多人忽略的，也是最难的 。即使拟订好策略仍要经过不断的测试， 不要去怪行情怎么奇怪的那样走，那是因为我们的策略经不起考验 。一个好的策略甚至于可以在准确率只有3成的情况下还赚钱!我常强调不要去猜底部，这就是个很重要的策略 。我现在所提的这个策略重于预测的观念，非常非常重要 。 请注意，买进股票等它涨是件天经地义的事 。但务必思考，如果不涨，该怎么办 ，这就是策略 。玩死人的问题在于策略，不在预测对或错 。观念能否开窍在于几次的生死关头的觉悟，别人写再多神奇的文章也没有用。神奇T理论，Magic T Theory 。是出自于一位毕业于麻省理工学院的泰瑞.隆德利 。理论是说，在市场上涨过程和下跌过程所花的时间是一样的 。在市场上涨前一定有某种预兆，当市场准备就绪，资金累积， 能量蓄积完毕后，就会开始向上扬升 。T这个字母，左右两边等长，故他以此称之 。这理论实际上诉说了许多有关宇宙进行的一些规律 。 一个人进步最快的时后，不是在一路顺风时，而是在遭遇挫折时 。(大空头惨跌之后，常会走大多头？!) 当你活的够久，你会犯下所有的错误。 最后成功的人，常不是一路顺风，而是经历过无数的跌跌撞撞.. 没经历过挫折而一路顺风的人，常在某一次的失败中，阵亡出局。一个超大多头，常以最大的崩盘画下句点?! 费氏和T理论不只碰触到了股市的结构，人生也脱离不了... 15. 操盘较适合用艺术的角度切入剖析.. T理论和费氏，最让人感兴趣的不是数字部份， 是它所隐藏的哲学意义，满值得人深思的."完美常是不经意被创造出来的" 。对操作来说，为什么策略对我们是这么重要呢？ 因为，没有人可以100%的预测行情，假如有人可以办到，那根本就不需要策略了 。完全不会犯错的人，就是神 。但你我都会犯错，所以我们需要策略来帮助我们 。还记得万点时，我们将股票出清吧 。为什么要这样做呢？因为，这边已经形成了一个头了 。什么叫头？一段涨势，涨不动了，都可以怀疑它是头 。如果盘了一阵子后来又上去了，那原本涨不动的地方就变成所谓整理段 。但对操作策略来说，涨不动的地方，我们全部都要将它视为头部， 因为这样可以让我们规避掉下跌的风险， 就如同现在套牢在头部的人，都是因为认为股票会在万点再涨上去，所以抱牢， 但不管我们怎么认为，看多也好，看空也好，策略上，都该先退出持股观望。 同理，对下跌势来说，跌不下去的地方，都要将其视为整理段， 不能将其视为底部，因为底部只有一个，一般猜都会猜错 。即使看起来像底部，还是要将其当为整理段， 只能高出低进，不能买进抱牢，就像现在这边 。这是我们的标准策略 。
16. "策略的目的在让我们可以控制风险，而不是获取最大利润" 。底部在哪？这问题事实上根本就不重要，也不用知道，也没人知道 。专心在自己的买卖点上，何时可加码、何时该停损、如果涨上去该如何做….. 这才是较实际的… 有句操作名言，永远不要加码亏损的部位。这句话，太太重要了，但却是最多人忽略的 。我想这波下跌，很多人有深深的感受 。换言之，永远只加码赚钱的部位。 这句话的精神就在于，不让你的亏损部位有机会呈倍数成长。因为我们的资金是有限的，我们的判断不可能100%正确，为了考量风险，我们必须如此做 。 将一些利润搬过来抵销风险是不得已的做法， 因为我们的资金有限， 因为我们可能会犯错。 那些会弄到断头，会赔的一踏胡涂的最大问题，都是在策略 。看错行情，每个人都会， 但高手厉害的地方就是他可以承受不断的犯错， 策略的拟定，真的很重要...
17. 对一个操作者来说，手上有部位时的操作，和预测是完全两回事，判断的目的，在于让部位以最小风险的方式来得到最大利润，后势的判断就必须融入你的部位已发生的利润或亏损，所以会较复杂。当部位出现利润时，就让利润自行发展，只要自己设定个出场时机，决定在何种情况下获利出场，那这笔交易就算成功，并不需要一定要将如空头部位在最低点出场才算对，多赚少赚都是赚；相反地，当部位出现亏损，此时，我认为并不是要证明自己看法一定对的时候，将亏损部位做出正确的处理才是当务之急，越坚定自己一定对，小心亏损会悄悄地以doube的速度扩大，让你因一笔交易永远无法翻身 。
18. 看盘分两种，看的懂和看不懂，看不懂的看再多也没用，看的懂的，每天瞄一眼就够了 。
19. 赔钱有两个原因，一个是技术不好，另一个是心理不够健全易受影响 。 在此时，会对自己更加的了解，发现原来自己信心常是如此脆弱，了解自己才有办法将交易技术再做提升，许多老手卡在半路上不去，常是心理的问题，技术已到极至也没用，心理要去克服...
20. 策略上，操作不能在看似底部时放入所有资金，而是该一路加码上去的，势不对时，记得抽出资金速度要快 。
Saturday, January 5, 2008
ETFs for Major indices
short ultrashort long ultralong
DJIA DOG DXD DIA DDM
S&P SH SDS SPY SSO
Russel2k RWM TWM IWM UWM
QQQQ PSQ QID QQQQ QLD
midcap400 MYY MZZ MDY MVV
financial ??? UYG XLF SKF
ultrashort China FXI is FXP
SSG ultrashort semiconductor SOX
REW UltraShort Technology
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts EEM
SRS UltraShort Real Estate XHB
SKF UltraShort Financials XLF
SCC ultrasort consumer
DJIA DOG DXD DIA DDM
S&P SH SDS SPY SSO
Russel2k RWM TWM IWM UWM
QQQQ PSQ QID QQQQ QLD
midcap400 MYY MZZ MDY MVV
financial ??? UYG XLF SKF
ultrashort China FXI is FXP
SSG ultrashort semiconductor SOX
REW UltraShort Technology
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts EEM
SRS UltraShort Real Estate XHB
SKF UltraShort Financials XLF
SCC ultrasort consumer
Friday, January 4, 2008
Friday 1-4-2008
11:20 AM
The new employment number was surprisingly low, the market sell off. The Dow was down more than 200 points. A major line of support is broken on NDX (Q4), which is a very bad sign. So from now on, mid-term is bearish. If the $tnx.x (Treasury Yield) wants to go down to 3%, which is about 10% down from here, I believe that the market will go down about 10% from here. Also, I guess the time frame is about 6 months. So overall, it is a pig market.
The new employment number was surprisingly low, the market sell off. The Dow was down more than 200 points. A major line of support is broken on NDX (Q4), which is a very bad sign. So from now on, mid-term is bearish. If the $tnx.x (Treasury Yield) wants to go down to 3%, which is about 10% down from here, I believe that the market will go down about 10% from here. Also, I guess the time frame is about 6 months. So overall, it is a pig market.
Byron Wien Predicts Recession, President Obama
Recession in the U.S.? $1,000 an ounce gold? A filibuster-proof Democratic Senate? President Obama? If Byron Wien is right, 2008 is going to be one hell of a year.
On Wednesday, the legendary Wall Street guru and chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital Management released his 23rd annual list of 10 surprises he thinks are possible in the coming year.
Tops on his list is the first recession in the United States since 2001, with the housing sector weak and banks scared of lending to anyone who resembles trouble. On top of that, he expects underwhelming consumer spending and the unemployment rate to rise above 5%, with the Federal Reserve dropping the f ederal funds rate below 3%.
Despite a modest rise in wages, Wien is also looking for inflation to rise above 5% as high food and energy prices begin to take their toll. With that, Wien sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising to 5% and “stagflation” becoming a hot-button issue on the campaign trail and editorial pages.
On the commodity front, he expects oil to move between $80 and $115 a barrel, corn to rise to $6 a bushel and gold to reach $1,000 an ounce.
Recession in the U.S. will impact China, leading its economy to slow only modestly, but pushing its stock market into a sharp tumble.
In early November, Wien expects to see the junior senator from Illinois elected in a landslide victory while the Democrats gain control of 60 seats in the Senate along with a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Wien joined Pequot, a Westport, Conn.-based hedge fund, in 2005 after spending two decades as Morgan Stanley’s chief stock market strategist and two decades as a portfolio manager before that.
Wien gives his predictions at least a 50% of happening. In the past he’s predicted Osama bin Laden’s capture and Saddam Hussein’s resignation in an effort to avert war (See “Wien: Osama, Rumsfeld, Cheney Will Be Gone”), but he correctly anticipated that the Fed would not cut rates in the spring of 2007 and that gold would hit $800 an ounce.
On Wednesday, the legendary Wall Street guru and chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital Management released his 23rd annual list of 10 surprises he thinks are possible in the coming year.
Tops on his list is the first recession in the United States since 2001, with the housing sector weak and banks scared of lending to anyone who resembles trouble. On top of that, he expects underwhelming consumer spending and the unemployment rate to rise above 5%, with the Federal Reserve dropping the f ederal funds rate below 3%.
Despite a modest rise in wages, Wien is also looking for inflation to rise above 5% as high food and energy prices begin to take their toll. With that, Wien sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising to 5% and “stagflation” becoming a hot-button issue on the campaign trail and editorial pages.
On the commodity front, he expects oil to move between $80 and $115 a barrel, corn to rise to $6 a bushel and gold to reach $1,000 an ounce.
Recession in the U.S. will impact China, leading its economy to slow only modestly, but pushing its stock market into a sharp tumble.
In early November, Wien expects to see the junior senator from Illinois elected in a landslide victory while the Democrats gain control of 60 seats in the Senate along with a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Wien joined Pequot, a Westport, Conn.-based hedge fund, in 2005 after spending two decades as Morgan Stanley’s chief stock market strategist and two decades as a portfolio manager before that.
Wien gives his predictions at least a 50% of happening. In the past he’s predicted Osama bin Laden’s capture and Saddam Hussein’s resignation in an effort to avert war (See “Wien: Osama, Rumsfeld, Cheney Will Be Gone”), but he correctly anticipated that the Fed would not cut rates in the spring of 2007 and that gold would hit $800 an ounce.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Thursday 1-3-2008
8:00 AM
The market had a big (> 200) loss in Dow yesterday. Now, it is sitting in at the level of last Dec closing low, ready to fill in the gap of SPY, and re-test the Nov low. The game plan is to short the market in the short-term, and long for the mid-term.
The market had a big (> 200) loss in Dow yesterday. Now, it is sitting in at the level of last Dec closing low, ready to fill in the gap of SPY, and re-test the Nov low. The game plan is to short the market in the short-term, and long for the mid-term.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Wednesday 1/2/2008
12:00 AM
First trading day of 2008. The market premarket was higher, but opened flat and went big loss so far. All indices are down more than 1%.
I am trading pure based on TA right now, but in a very causion mode. I knew the TA points down, but with new year mood, I don't want to short the market too deep. Right now, I have closed all my short positions, although the trend is still toward down. Just keep on watching/paper trade until it presents an entry point for long.
First trading day of 2008. The market premarket was higher, but opened flat and went big loss so far. All indices are down more than 1%.
I am trading pure based on TA right now, but in a very causion mode. I knew the TA points down, but with new year mood, I don't want to short the market too deep. Right now, I have closed all my short positions, although the trend is still toward down. Just keep on watching/paper trade until it presents an entry point for long.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Wednesday 12-26-2007
11:20 PM
The market is signing a topping. It opened lower, and keeps low so far. I will do a quick s&p put in the afternoon if the market keeps this way.
The market is signing a topping. It opened lower, and keeps low so far. I will do a quick s&p put in the afternoon if the market keeps this way.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Friday 12-21-2007
7:30 Am
The future is high. I believel that the gap in sp around 1430 needs filled before it is can go higher. So unload SP call positions at open. RIMM was a wrong bet, which sucks. Anyway, QQQQ is ready for new high. Since the SP needs to fill the down gap, there is no hurry to jump in QQQQ right now. Just do some day trade for practice.
4:30 PM
The market had a big rally, up more than 200 points. I have a very rough trading history since 11/12/07. Also all the option trade losing money. Here is my takes on this mistake:
1. Don't rely on experts advices;
2. Only trust numbers from the market.
Just like there is a gap needs to be filled below on SP. But as long as the stochastic doesn't tell you so, it won't get filled. The TAs will show when the gap will be filled. So from now on, I won't listen to any expert advice. I think the market data is already enough for me to make decisions.
The future is high. I believel that the gap in sp around 1430 needs filled before it is can go higher. So unload SP call positions at open. RIMM was a wrong bet, which sucks. Anyway, QQQQ is ready for new high. Since the SP needs to fill the down gap, there is no hurry to jump in QQQQ right now. Just do some day trade for practice.
4:30 PM
The market had a big rally, up more than 200 points. I have a very rough trading history since 11/12/07. Also all the option trade losing money. Here is my takes on this mistake:
1. Don't rely on experts advices;
2. Only trust numbers from the market.
Just like there is a gap needs to be filled below on SP. But as long as the stochastic doesn't tell you so, it won't get filled. The TAs will show when the gap will be filled. So from now on, I won't listen to any expert advice. I think the market data is already enough for me to make decisions.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Thursday 12-20-2007
9:00 AM
The current stocks market direction is very clear. Short-term up, and mid-term down. Timing is everything, so follow up with the TAs to act properly.
The current stocks market direction is very clear. Short-term up, and mid-term down. Timing is everything, so follow up with the TAs to act properly.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Wednesday 12-19-2007
10:00 AM
The market is heading up to 1800 on SP (hopefully). The mid-term is C leg down. So be sure to unload the long position and add short positions on the next leg (3rd) down.
9:00 PM
The trend is down, so mainly look for down trend stocks. Don't long.
The market is heading up to 1800 on SP (hopefully). The mid-term is C leg down. So be sure to unload the long position and add short positions on the next leg (3rd) down.
9:00 PM
The trend is down, so mainly look for down trend stocks. Don't long.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Tuesday 12-18-2007
6:00 PM
The market jumped open, then sold off. Then it recoved most of it. It is a very hard to trade. I know it might be the temp bottom.
The market jumped open, then sold off. Then it recoved most of it. It is a very hard to trade. I know it might be the temp bottom.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Monday 12-17-2007
8:20 AM
The future is negative carrying on with Friday's big loss. Dow down 178 points on Friday. The C leg down is confirmed. Today will finish the 1st leg in this C leg, 2nd leg up is browing. The 2nd leg target is at 1505 in SP.
The future is negative carrying on with Friday's big loss. Dow down 178 points on Friday. The C leg down is confirmed. Today will finish the 1st leg in this C leg, 2nd leg up is browing. The 2nd leg target is at 1505 in SP.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Friday 12-14-2007
9:45 AM
The market gap down huge, over 100 points. Now it is making its way to fill the gap. I won't expect the gap gets filled. Basically, today is a huge down day. But I have close the put position. I will add a small put position if I see any weakness. Otherwise, I will close all the short position if the market can't break new low.
The market gap down huge, over 100 points. Now it is making its way to fill the gap. I won't expect the gap gets filled. Basically, today is a huge down day. But I have close the put position. I will add a small put position if I see any weakness. Otherwise, I will close all the short position if the market can't break new low.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Thursday 12-13-2007
10:30 AM
The market opened lower and then managed to close the gap in a very weak force. The mid term (in days) trend is down. So I keep all the short positions and have sold all the put positions. I will add short positions if there is any bounce.
1:40 PM
The market drifting below support level. I will add more short positions only when it is higher. I guess the market will drift/flat to close. Tomorrow, if gap up, add more short potisions. If it open flat, wait close to short more.
The market opened lower and then managed to close the gap in a very weak force. The mid term (in days) trend is down. So I keep all the short positions and have sold all the put positions. I will add short positions if there is any bounce.
1:40 PM
The market drifting below support level. I will add more short positions only when it is higher. I guess the market will drift/flat to close. Tomorrow, if gap up, add more short potisions. If it open flat, wait close to short more.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Wednesday 12-12-2007
9:00 AM
The market went down 300 points yesterday, which marks the A-B-C conclusion (hopefully). So basically today will be the confirmation day. Once it confirms, Nov low will be retested.
10:15 AM
The market opened incredible strong, which is a very bad sign for bull. If MMs think the market will go high, they will use this great opportunity to load up with lower price. Apparently, they didn't do it this way, they did the opposite way. That means they want to unload they holdings.
The market went down 300 points yesterday, which marks the A-B-C conclusion (hopefully). So basically today will be the confirmation day. Once it confirms, Nov low will be retested.
10:15 AM
The market opened incredible strong, which is a very bad sign for bull. If MMs think the market will go high, they will use this great opportunity to load up with lower price. Apparently, they didn't do it this way, they did the opposite way. That means they want to unload they holdings.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Tuesday 12-11-2007
8:00 AM
The market just can't stop going up. Today is the Fed decision day. Obviously, I am on the other side of the market. The market dismisses, ignores and discounts all the bad news. I felt frustrated. The TAs side tells that the short-term top is here or close. So I just be patient.
The market just can't stop going up. Today is the Fed decision day. Obviously, I am on the other side of the market. The market dismisses, ignores and discounts all the bad news. I felt frustrated. The TAs side tells that the short-term top is here or close. So I just be patient.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Monday 12-10-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is up a little. I should take a sideline position since the bond yield is at 4.12% in last closing session, which means, that it positioned for .25 fed funds rate cut. Current fed funds rate is 4.5%. The last session's high for Dow was 13774. Watch it closely, see if it can be broken. The truth worry for the bear is not up side, it is really the down side. If the market extends its rally from here, it is not a good sign. But if it can hold 1480-1490 level in SP, it is a good chance that the market will go up for the Xmas rally.
The pre-market is up a little. I should take a sideline position since the bond yield is at 4.12% in last closing session, which means, that it positioned for .25 fed funds rate cut. Current fed funds rate is 4.5%. The last session's high for Dow was 13774. Watch it closely, see if it can be broken. The truth worry for the bear is not up side, it is really the down side. If the market extends its rally from here, it is not a good sign. But if it can hold 1480-1490 level in SP, it is a good chance that the market will go up for the Xmas rally.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Friday 12-07-2007
10:45 AM
It is Friday, the market has been up huge for the whole week. So I expect it will be a little bit of profit taken today. Next Tuesday will be Fed decision meeting. If there is .25 point cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will sell off. If there is .50 cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will do a weak rally.
It is Friday, the market has been up huge for the whole week. So I expect it will be a little bit of profit taken today. Next Tuesday will be Fed decision meeting. If there is .25 point cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will sell off. If there is .50 cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will do a weak rally.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Thursday 12-6-2007
5:00 PM
The market has rebounced to 1507 from 1406 with in 10 days. it is a huge and quick rebounce. To me, it is too quick and too fast. Tomorrow will be a down day for sure. If it open high, short stocks at the open.
Starting next week, use options for day trade.
The market has rebounced to 1507 from 1406 with in 10 days. it is a huge and quick rebounce. To me, it is too quick and too fast. Tomorrow will be a down day for sure. If it open high, short stocks at the open.
Starting next week, use options for day trade.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Monday 12-03-2007
1:00 PM
The market opened lower and regain all the lost, but can't stay there. So I think the market is heading lower today. All the leaders are not making gains.
The market opened lower and regain all the lost, but can't stay there. So I think the market is heading lower today. All the leaders are not making gains.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Friday 11-30-2007
7:15 AM
The pre-market is up huge again, as Fed will cut rate on 12/11 meeting. Since this time, the news is out earlier than usual, "buy on the rumor, and sell on news." So this is my thought:
1. For a mid-term period, SP 1490-1500 is up resistance level, I expect the market to touch this zone, and go back to test the low 1420-1400.
2. For the short-term, since I was on the wrong side, basically, I have lost all the qualifications. So I have to stay away from current market, and just wait.
3. This market is going much faster than I expect on each direction.
Here are some important data:
1. SP 1490 50%, 1510 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
2. QQQQ 51.83 50%, 52.59 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
I won't take any action before those numbers get violated: SP 1490 and QQQQ 52.59. If the market carries its way too much, I will buy SP put in my zecco account on spy's upper bb level, which is 149.6 for hourly based trade. Again, short-term, very short-term.
A good trader is "看空但是不做空"
11:00 AM
I did buy put on SPY at 9:45 AM - 2 contract, very small position. BTW, I believe RIMM is forming the diamond reverse, once it drops below 115-110, it will go to 81.
The pre-market is up huge again, as Fed will cut rate on 12/11 meeting. Since this time, the news is out earlier than usual, "buy on the rumor, and sell on news." So this is my thought:
1. For a mid-term period, SP 1490-1500 is up resistance level, I expect the market to touch this zone, and go back to test the low 1420-1400.
2. For the short-term, since I was on the wrong side, basically, I have lost all the qualifications. So I have to stay away from current market, and just wait.
3. This market is going much faster than I expect on each direction.
Here are some important data:
1. SP 1490 50%, 1510 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
2. QQQQ 51.83 50%, 52.59 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
I won't take any action before those numbers get violated: SP 1490 and QQQQ 52.59. If the market carries its way too much, I will buy SP put in my zecco account on spy's upper bb level, which is 149.6 for hourly based trade. Again, short-term, very short-term.
A good trader is "看空但是不做空"
11:00 AM
I did buy put on SPY at 9:45 AM - 2 contract, very small position. BTW, I believe RIMM is forming the diamond reverse, once it drops below 115-110, it will go to 81.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Thursday 11-29-2007
1:30 PM
The market FA is all bearish. Not too much bullish sentiment out there. The economy growth is going slow. So this is the baseline. The issues is how the fed will do.
Technically, the market had a very good 2 days run, gained more than 500 points. All the major trends are still pointing down. Again, I just hold my short positions. I will add more short positions once the TA shows sign.
The market FA is all bearish. Not too much bullish sentiment out there. The economy growth is going slow. So this is the baseline. The issues is how the fed will do.
Technically, the market had a very good 2 days run, gained more than 500 points. All the major trends are still pointing down. Again, I just hold my short positions. I will add more short positions once the TA shows sign.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Wednesday 11-28-2007
9:10 AM
The pre-market went up huge. I expect another big up today. But it is still a bounce, not trend reverse. Since I am not available for the day. I still just hold all my short positions. Some are in a deep water. But I am not worry.
1:15 PM
The market is up on the 2nd day (yesterday, it was up 215, today is 265 right now.) But I still don't believe the bottom has been made, as I haven't seen the panic selling. I am holding what I have and just put my head into the sand for a while.
I think the short-term trend is up. After those 2 days huge up, it should turn soft and consolidation for a while. I will close Dec put and take loss while there is any chance, and keep all the other short positions.
The pre-market went up huge. I expect another big up today. But it is still a bounce, not trend reverse. Since I am not available for the day. I still just hold all my short positions. Some are in a deep water. But I am not worry.
1:15 PM
The market is up on the 2nd day (yesterday, it was up 215, today is 265 right now.) But I still don't believe the bottom has been made, as I haven't seen the panic selling. I am holding what I have and just put my head into the sand for a while.
I think the short-term trend is up. After those 2 days huge up, it should turn soft and consolidation for a while. I will close Dec put and take loss while there is any chance, and keep all the other short positions.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Tuesday 11-27-2007
8:00 AM
The pre-market is up. Don't get sucked in. The trend is definitely down from both daily and weekly TA. The re-bounce should be very weak. If long, you have to give your enough time to monitor, otherwise, stay short that you don't have to monitor too closely.
9:20 AM
MOS is in a perfect h&s formation. Short a small portion right here around $64 with stop $65.5. Once it breaks the neckline around $58. Add short position.
1:00 PM
All indices are up around 1.5%. Taking almost all the loss back from yesterday. That means that at current level, bulls and bears are really neck to neck. The market leaders are taking rest, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM are not advancing too much.
8:30 PM
I am still very bearish. The well street is getting ready for the recession. GS upgraded the strong segments, big cap biotech, defense, and tabecho; others belong to downgrades.
The pre-market is up. Don't get sucked in. The trend is definitely down from both daily and weekly TA. The re-bounce should be very weak. If long, you have to give your enough time to monitor, otherwise, stay short that you don't have to monitor too closely.
9:20 AM
MOS is in a perfect h&s formation. Short a small portion right here around $64 with stop $65.5. Once it breaks the neckline around $58. Add short position.
1:00 PM
All indices are up around 1.5%. Taking almost all the loss back from yesterday. That means that at current level, bulls and bears are really neck to neck. The market leaders are taking rest, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM are not advancing too much.
8:30 PM
I am still very bearish. The well street is getting ready for the recession. GS upgraded the strong segments, big cap biotech, defense, and tabecho; others belong to downgrades.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Monday 11-26-2007
8:00 AM
Last Friday after Thanksgiving, market went up with positive rally. Today, the pre-market is up a little. It tramed much larger earlier gain. So the trend is to open higher and go lower.
Meanwhile, it is officially a bear market. As the Dow made a recent low on 11/23/2007 before Thanksgiving. So make sure all position is mainly in short side. Long position can be only for short-term trade.
11:00 AM
The trend is right. The market is going down. The financial is weak. So I will buy some SKF (ultra short financial XLF)
4:15 PM
The market is on the way down. Major indices broke on all previous low.
Bought 100 shares of SKF before lunch. And at the close, bot 5 contacts of rimm put.
Last Friday after Thanksgiving, market went up with positive rally. Today, the pre-market is up a little. It tramed much larger earlier gain. So the trend is to open higher and go lower.
Meanwhile, it is officially a bear market. As the Dow made a recent low on 11/23/2007 before Thanksgiving. So make sure all position is mainly in short side. Long position can be only for short-term trade.
11:00 AM
The trend is right. The market is going down. The financial is weak. So I will buy some SKF (ultra short financial XLF)
4:15 PM
The market is on the way down. Major indices broke on all previous low.
Bought 100 shares of SKF before lunch. And at the close, bot 5 contacts of rimm put.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Weekend 11-24-2007
上周坐游船去了加热比海，在古巴的附近。陆续贴些照片。
1。 http://fishdb.sinica.edu.tw/2001new/importpic.asp?id=D05 鱼在一起。
2。在墨西哥，当地人在游行。 
1。 http://fishdb.sinica.edu.tw/2001new/importpic.asp?id=D05 鱼在一起。
2。在墨西哥，当地人在游行。
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Weekend 11-17-2007
The Friday's was OE day, and the market did a huge "W" formation. So for the short-term, I think NAZ will go up to form the left shoulder. Overall, the market is in a very bad shape. It will go down huge once the formation is done.
Trade down trend from now on.
Next week, I am going to cruise. So no worry for this moment.
Trade down trend from now on.
Next week, I am going to cruise. So no worry for this moment.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Thursday 11-15-2007
8:00 AM
The future is off a little bit. I checked the oversold and overbought ratio during this week, it is not extreme. So the next leg down is most likely. The PUT/CALL ratio of Tuesday's big run up was around 1.2. Yesterday, the market went down in last 20 minutes, PUT/CALL ratio was 0.9.
12:00 PM
It is flat as expected. It should be flat tomorrow as well. Next week, not too much activities too, as people are going to holidays.
3:00 PM
The market is dropping over 133 points, adding to yesterday's 70 points, it is more than 200 point which is more than 62% retrace of Tuesday's huge rally, which is not a good sign. If it can't pull back a little bit, tomorrow won't be good.
9:45 PM
1. The PUT/CALL ratio is 1.4.
2. The Down volume is huge, almost close to the high in 2 months.
The future is off a little bit. I checked the oversold and overbought ratio during this week, it is not extreme. So the next leg down is most likely. The PUT/CALL ratio of Tuesday's big run up was around 1.2. Yesterday, the market went down in last 20 minutes, PUT/CALL ratio was 0.9.
12:00 PM
It is flat as expected. It should be flat tomorrow as well. Next week, not too much activities too, as people are going to holidays.
3:00 PM
The market is dropping over 133 points, adding to yesterday's 70 points, it is more than 200 point which is more than 62% retrace of Tuesday's huge rally, which is not a good sign. If it can't pull back a little bit, tomorrow won't be good.
9:45 PM
1. The PUT/CALL ratio is 1.4.
2. The Down volume is huge, almost close to the high in 2 months.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Wednesday 11-14-2007
8:00 AM
The future is flat with a little bit down. I don't like this action at all. It will be a very weak sign if the market opens low. So be very caution here. Personally, I am still very bearish.
8:30 AM
If the market can pass 1490 in SP, and 13400 in DOW at close, I will be totally missing the opportunity. This is a TGH in my trading experiences. If it happens, don't jump in too quickly. Stay away for a while and play paper trade instead. Remember money is everything in the market, but you have to do it right.
1:30 PM
I expect the market keeps at this little up/flat today, and tomorrow, it goes up a few points or flat for the week. Then starting next week, it goes down for the last leg of this correction.
5:30 PM
The market tried to pass 2700 of NAZ, 1490 of SP, but failed. It is down 0.5% for the day.
1. PUT/CALL ratio 0.9
The future is flat with a little bit down. I don't like this action at all. It will be a very weak sign if the market opens low. So be very caution here. Personally, I am still very bearish.
8:30 AM
If the market can pass 1490 in SP, and 13400 in DOW at close, I will be totally missing the opportunity. This is a TGH in my trading experiences. If it happens, don't jump in too quickly. Stay away for a while and play paper trade instead. Remember money is everything in the market, but you have to do it right.
1:30 PM
I expect the market keeps at this little up/flat today, and tomorrow, it goes up a few points or flat for the week. Then starting next week, it goes down for the last leg of this correction.
5:30 PM
The market tried to pass 2700 of NAZ, 1490 of SP, but failed. It is down 0.5% for the day.
1. PUT/CALL ratio 0.9
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Tuesday 11-13-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is up more than 1%. The beaten down stocks are up around 4%.
Since yesterday, I am in an extreme bearish mode. I researched the chart pattern, and noticed that current chart pattern matches 1987 oct crash. So my mind set expects the market going that direction. For the week pre crash, the general market went down on Monday, and up 2-3% Tuesday; gap with huge down more than 4% on Wednesday; then falling from there. And crashed on Monday.
Today, I will just watch. At the close, if there is any weakness, put a small short position.
6:30 PM
The summary of the market:
1. DOW up 2.46%, NAZ up 3.46%, and SP up 2.91% with volume on average of previous 3 days.
2. PUT/CALL ratio is growing from 1.13 -> 1.27
The pre-market is up more than 1%. The beaten down stocks are up around 4%.
Since yesterday, I am in an extreme bearish mode. I researched the chart pattern, and noticed that current chart pattern matches 1987 oct crash. So my mind set expects the market going that direction. For the week pre crash, the general market went down on Monday, and up 2-3% Tuesday; gap with huge down more than 4% on Wednesday; then falling from there. And crashed on Monday.
Today, I will just watch. At the close, if there is any weakness, put a small short position.
6:30 PM
The summary of the market:
1. DOW up 2.46%, NAZ up 3.46%, and SP up 2.91% with volume on average of previous 3 days.
2. PUT/CALL ratio is growing from 1.13 -> 1.27
Monday, November 12, 2007
Monday 11-12-2007
8:00 AM
The future market is little change. That is good news. Shanghai market tested the 5031 low, and closed flat. HSI and Jap market were down 3-4%. But European market is mixed. People were talking about the official bear market on the weekend. The sentiment of the market was very bearish over the weekend. Basically, I was very scared and not easy on the weekend, based on the current position.
9:00 AM
The pre-market is position. So today's plan is to hold all the current positions. Looking for refill AAPL calls which was cut loss last Friday.
5:30 PM
The market is in extreme. I had to close all long positions and took huge loss. The market is very bearish. Although the indices are not down too much, the high flyers are down huge, from 5-15%.
The future market is little change. That is good news. Shanghai market tested the 5031 low, and closed flat. HSI and Jap market were down 3-4%. But European market is mixed. People were talking about the official bear market on the weekend. The sentiment of the market was very bearish over the weekend. Basically, I was very scared and not easy on the weekend, based on the current position.
9:00 AM
The pre-market is position. So today's plan is to hold all the current positions. Looking for refill AAPL calls which was cut loss last Friday.
5:30 PM
The market is in extreme. I had to close all long positions and took huge loss. The market is very bearish. Although the indices are not down too much, the high flyers are down huge, from 5-15%.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Weekend 11-10-2007
The last Friday was brutal. The market gapped down, and stayed down in a narrow trade range, and then in the last 30 minutes, it sold off.
I have to cut loss and sold 40 AAPL calls with $15000 loss. This weekend, the CNBC said there would be doozy of rally coming, and some experts are optimistic, I am scared though. That means the market is bottoming. So get ready to reload the position again. But this will be just a short term trade. I must get in and get out fast. Again, rumor is rumor. So still the TA is the best friend.
Monday's plan is as follows,
1. if the market gaps down at open, day trade AAPL.
2. if the market gaps up or flat at open, hold.
Seeking AAPL, RIM, and GOOG exit point during next week when one of them reaches:
DOW, 13400; SPX 1489; IXIC 2720; QQQQ, 53
I have to cut loss and sold 40 AAPL calls with $15000 loss. This weekend, the CNBC said there would be doozy of rally coming, and some experts are optimistic, I am scared though. That means the market is bottoming. So get ready to reload the position again. But this will be just a short term trade. I must get in and get out fast. Again, rumor is rumor. So still the TA is the best friend.
Monday's plan is as follows,
1. if the market gaps down at open, day trade AAPL.
2. if the market gaps up or flat at open, hold.
Seeking AAPL, RIM, and GOOG exit point during next week when one of them reaches:
DOW, 13400; SPX 1489; IXIC 2720; QQQQ, 53
Friday, November 9, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Thursday 11-08-2007
3:30 PM
The market is amazing, the NAZ went down 100 points, and now it is getting its feet back. It is really over done.
The pre-market was higher in the waking of Asia closed very low, the Europe mixed waiting. The market drafting around at the open level during the first 2 hours. Before lunch time, it went down, and made it lowest point around 1:00 PM. After that, the market recovered. The significant improvement started around 3:10 PM.
I loaded up with AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG calls. Haha! Very good move overall.
The market is amazing, the NAZ went down 100 points, and now it is getting its feet back. It is really over done.
The pre-market was higher in the waking of Asia closed very low, the Europe mixed waiting. The market drafting around at the open level during the first 2 hours. Before lunch time, it went down, and made it lowest point around 1:00 PM. After that, the market recovered. The significant improvement started around 3:10 PM.
I loaded up with AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG calls. Haha! Very good move overall.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Wednesday 11-07-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market was down more than 1% but is better than earlier. That means the futures are getting improvements. More fear, the better. I believe the market will go much much higher from now on. Again, any dip is a good buy.
Yesterday, I missed some energy-other, such as solar and gas. Now it is the time to add some.
1. Get 200 shares of MEE (coal and gas company)
2. Get in 100 shares of STP (solar play)
3. Get out 1/2 position of PWR (industrial infrastructral. earning tomorrow morning)
I did load up the MEE, but unfortunately, I didn't load up STP.
6:00 PM
The afternoon market was ugly. Indices broke all the major support lines. I have sold almost all the positions. And put some small short positions on high flyers RIMM, ISRG, and DRYS.
Remember the down turn will be short. So just take some profit and not be too greedy.
The pre-market was down more than 1% but is better than earlier. That means the futures are getting improvements. More fear, the better. I believe the market will go much much higher from now on. Again, any dip is a good buy.
Yesterday, I missed some energy-other, such as solar and gas. Now it is the time to add some.
1. Get 200 shares of MEE (coal and gas company)
2. Get in 100 shares of STP (solar play)
3. Get out 1/2 position of PWR (industrial infrastructral. earning tomorrow morning)
I did load up the MEE, but unfortunately, I didn't load up STP.
6:00 PM
The afternoon market was ugly. Indices broke all the major support lines. I have sold almost all the positions. And put some small short positions on high flyers RIMM, ISRG, and DRYS.
Remember the down turn will be short. So just take some profit and not be too greedy.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Tuesday 11-06-2007
8:20 AM
As expected, the pre-market is up. The normal market situation is that the first week of each month is bear. After that, it gets better. So I expect the general trend goes better.
If it is not the bottom, definitely, it is near the bottom. So this time, hold tight, less trade. Buy any dip if there is still cash left.
Today's play,
1. Load MOO with monthly $5K allowance
2. GOOG is on fire. But unfortunately, I missed it.
3. HOV just came out the preliminary earning report, it is better than other home builders.
10:20 AM
The HOLX was a huge surprise. The earning was very good, but the stock went down 8%. My 30 calls got hammered. This is the lesson: use small amount to play the ER with options.
11:10 AM
(TGH- The greatest humilidate) Very sick of HOV, I hate to do, but sold the calls and took $11K loss. Don't know what to do with the 2500 shares of stocks yet. I guess I will hold it for a while.
As expected, the pre-market is up. The normal market situation is that the first week of each month is bear. After that, it gets better. So I expect the general trend goes better.
If it is not the bottom, definitely, it is near the bottom. So this time, hold tight, less trade. Buy any dip if there is still cash left.
Today's play,
1. Load MOO with monthly $5K allowance
2. GOOG is on fire. But unfortunately, I missed it.
3. HOV just came out the preliminary earning report, it is better than other home builders.
10:20 AM
The HOLX was a huge surprise. The earning was very good, but the stock went down 8%. My 30 calls got hammered. This is the lesson: use small amount to play the ER with options.
11:10 AM
(TGH- The greatest humilidate) Very sick of HOV, I hate to do, but sold the calls and took $11K loss. Don't know what to do with the 2500 shares of stocks yet. I guess I will hold it for a while.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Monday 11-05-2007
9:50 AM
The pre-market was down huge with the whole world market. It opened low around 1% down, went lower, but didn't break yesterday's (last Friday's) low; then moved up a little. If it doesn't break last session's low, or close around today's open, it is a good sign.
The Chinese stocks get hit huge this time. I believe the bottom is near, so I won't trade. Stay neutral right now. Here are some reasons:
1. Financial and real estate- have been beaten down, and can't go any lower;
2. Tech - strong, and can't be beaten down;
3. The rests are drafting with the market.
4. China/HK market down was the policy delay, it should be one time. So I am not worry too much.
So, I don't see a big down turn from here.
11:30 AM
The market is still drafting in negative. It is a definitely a pig market. So I am taking so profits on RIMM and APPL, and back to 25% in cash.
11:45 AM
The QQQQ is forming an unique three river bullish pattern, which is a bullish reserve pattern. It needs to be confirmed by the new high (in previous 3 days). So hold on the bullits a little bit, I expect another drafting down in the afternoon. If it closes strong, jump in.
3:30 PM
The running up is fairly strong, I loaded up AAPL and RIMM back.
The pre-market was down huge with the whole world market. It opened low around 1% down, went lower, but didn't break yesterday's (last Friday's) low; then moved up a little. If it doesn't break last session's low, or close around today's open, it is a good sign.
The Chinese stocks get hit huge this time. I believe the bottom is near, so I won't trade. Stay neutral right now. Here are some reasons:
1. Financial and real estate- have been beaten down, and can't go any lower;
2. Tech - strong, and can't be beaten down;
3. The rests are drafting with the market.
4. China/HK market down was the policy delay, it should be one time. So I am not worry too much.
So, I don't see a big down turn from here.
11:30 AM
The market is still drafting in negative. It is a definitely a pig market. So I am taking so profits on RIMM and APPL, and back to 25% in cash.
11:45 AM
The QQQQ is forming an unique three river bullish pattern, which is a bullish reserve pattern. It needs to be confirmed by the new high (in previous 3 days). So hold on the bullits a little bit, I expect another drafting down in the afternoon. If it closes strong, jump in.
3:30 PM
The running up is fairly strong, I loaded up AAPL and RIMM back.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Weekend 11-04-2007
There are many Bears out there. In DQ, Qiuzhihaoyue and Daoluan turn bearish as well. The market is in critical point. I would rather be careful here. So looking for any strength to exit the long, mainly calls with profit, and build up some put positions on indices. Anyway, prefer neutral setup.
For the very short-term, I still believe the market is bullish, as last Friday closed strong. So I still believe the tech, commodities, and foreign markets are bull. The US internal is bear.
For the very short-term, I still believe the market is bullish, as last Friday closed strong. So I still believe the tech, commodities, and foreign markets are bull. The US internal is bear.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Thursday 11-01-2007
9:00 AM
The future is down a lot. I am happy that the market is back to normalcy. Buy dip on any weakness. Yesterday, I missed the AAPL calls, so hopefully, I can get it back. Also, get some GOOG and RIMM's calls. China is a risk play, be careful.
10:30 AM
The market is down huge, average 1.5% down so far. The legend A-B-C wave of correction is true, the C leg is developing, which means, the market will be down further. Don't be hero here right now. Hold on all your positions, and buy dip when it is developed.
The future is down a lot. I am happy that the market is back to normalcy. Buy dip on any weakness. Yesterday, I missed the AAPL calls, so hopefully, I can get it back. Also, get some GOOG and RIMM's calls. China is a risk play, be careful.
10:30 AM
The market is down huge, average 1.5% down so far. The legend A-B-C wave of correction is true, the C leg is developing, which means, the market will be down further. Don't be hero here right now. Hold on all your positions, and buy dip when it is developed.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Wednesday 10-31-2007
8:45 AM
MA just announced a good earning, the stock in pre-market is up big, 7.8%. Prepare for unloading the call at the open. Fed decision annoucement around 2:10 pm, I expect it will be a .25 cut, but I hope the cut is .5. IMO, the deficit is so huge with the foreign governments holding the bag, why no just make a deep cut, which benefits a. unload the burdons to them; b. save the credit cruch. Let's see.
There was an earth quack in SF last night.
10:30 AM
The market opened higher, and stayed high. I believe the .25 cut news will cause the market to drop a little bit, then rally back to upside. So I will not sell here since the momentum is strong. Buy in the dip. Load up calls on techs.
5:30 AM
The fed cut rate by .25. The market went down briefly and went up around 1%. From here, I believe the market will go higher.
Current main player will be still Chinese stocks and commodities related and high tech.
1. Add RIMM calls
MA just announced a good earning, the stock in pre-market is up big, 7.8%. Prepare for unloading the call at the open. Fed decision annoucement around 2:10 pm, I expect it will be a .25 cut, but I hope the cut is .5. IMO, the deficit is so huge with the foreign governments holding the bag, why no just make a deep cut, which benefits a. unload the burdons to them; b. save the credit cruch. Let's see.
There was an earth quack in SF last night.
10:30 AM
The market opened higher, and stayed high. I believe the .25 cut news will cause the market to drop a little bit, then rally back to upside. So I will not sell here since the momentum is strong. Buy in the dip. Load up calls on techs.
5:30 AM
The fed cut rate by .25. The market went down briefly and went up around 1%. From here, I believe the market will go higher.
Current main player will be still Chinese stocks and commodities related and high tech.
1. Add RIMM calls
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Tuesday 07-30-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is down a little. But I don't see it is a big day today as Fed decision will be announced tomorrow. Today will be quiet.
I will hold all my positions through the day, and evaulate before closing today.
11:10 AM
The market is doing exactly the actions as the last time cut. Before the cust last time (9/18/2007), after 2 days running up, it went down a little bit. The next day, it went up from opening. Today, all the leading stocks are up. So I believe the market should go up from here. Again, re-evaluate before the closing, and see if there is any opportunities.
The pre-market is down a little. But I don't see it is a big day today as Fed decision will be announced tomorrow. Today will be quiet.
I will hold all my positions through the day, and evaulate before closing today.
11:10 AM
The market is doing exactly the actions as the last time cut. Before the cust last time (9/18/2007), after 2 days running up, it went down a little bit. The next day, it went up from opening. Today, all the leading stocks are up. So I believe the market should go up from here. Again, re-evaluate before the closing, and see if there is any opportunities.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Monday 07-29-2007
11:00 AM
The pre-market was strong, but it faded the gap. Now it is in the trading range with little move. I expect the market goes this way for today. There might be a 2 ways for tomorrow. It jumps up, which a sign for sell; or it trades in the range which means the market wants to jump up after the Fed meeting.
I have added some positions such as RIMM, EBAY, BHP's calls. The PCU went up too much, so I have to skip. Most of Chinese Stocks went up high and trade lower, so I think it is better don't touch them right now.
The pre-market was strong, but it faded the gap. Now it is in the trading range with little move. I expect the market goes this way for today. There might be a 2 ways for tomorrow. It jumps up, which a sign for sell; or it trades in the range which means the market wants to jump up after the Fed meeting.
I have added some positions such as RIMM, EBAY, BHP's calls. The PCU went up too much, so I have to skip. Most of Chinese Stocks went up high and trade lower, so I think it is better don't touch them right now.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Weekend 07-27-2007
The passing Friday had a good day, the market jumped on MSFT great earning news, and tech jumps with all segments except the semiconductor segment. The semi is pathetic anyway.
Next week, Fed will announcement the interest rate decision, and market is widely expecting 1/4 points cut. Actually, I believe the fed will do 1/2 points cut. If it is 1/4 points cut, I believe the market will sell off, and starts a second part of correction. So watch it closely.
But whatever, the real estate and financial segment should get a strong lift on the rate cut.
Looking to load up
1. CTRP stocks
2. Call PCU and EBAY (50 calls)
Next week, Fed will announcement the interest rate decision, and market is widely expecting 1/4 points cut. Actually, I believe the fed will do 1/2 points cut. If it is 1/4 points cut, I believe the market will sell off, and starts a second part of correction. So watch it closely.
But whatever, the real estate and financial segment should get a strong lift on the rate cut.
Looking to load up
1. CTRP stocks
2. Call PCU and EBAY (50 calls)
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Thursday 10-25-2007
8:40 AM
The pre-market is going up. There are a few good earnings such as Motorola, Amgen, Big Phamies. I expect the 4Q breaks out from here.
The dollar will be down, and US has successfully persuade China to increase the Yuan value. Now, it should be the text book play that all the commodities, oil, railway, dry shipping, farmers, and high tech shine; financial and retails sink.
Today, I think the market should be still in consolidation mode and waiting for the fed rate decision. 50 base points are in the expectation now, which is good for the fed to do the double play, a. support the financial credit crush; b. devalue the dollar.
10:30 AM
As expected, the new (today) and existing (yesterday) housing sale numbers are very bad. The durable goods number is not good either. So the fed cut is for certain. The financial stocks and home builders got lifted.
The pre-market is going up. There are a few good earnings such as Motorola, Amgen, Big Phamies. I expect the 4Q breaks out from here.
The dollar will be down, and US has successfully persuade China to increase the Yuan value. Now, it should be the text book play that all the commodities, oil, railway, dry shipping, farmers, and high tech shine; financial and retails sink.
Today, I think the market should be still in consolidation mode and waiting for the fed rate decision. 50 base points are in the expectation now, which is good for the fed to do the double play, a. support the financial credit crush; b. devalue the dollar.
10:30 AM
As expected, the new (today) and existing (yesterday) housing sale numbers are very bad. The durable goods number is not good either. So the fed cut is for certain. The financial stocks and home builders got lifted.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Wednesday 10-24-2007
8:30 AM
The market went up close 1% yesterday. But I felt the run was very weak. There were just a few leading stocks breaking out. I believe it tried to test the water, the pull back is imminent; but don't expect a down-turn, the market is ready for a big up side. It is just doing some consolidation for a while. In other words, the MMs are short of stocks, yesterday's run was too quick and too sudden. So MMs are driving the after and pre-market down to collect some shares. So any dip is a good buy.
Again, it proves that NO Panic and No Greedy works.
3:00 PM
It proves that my estimate was with the market trend. The indices were down 2% (tech down 2.5% with heavy volume), but I have spotted that DOW's volume is very light. So I added AAPL position. Now, the market is recovering.
The market went up close 1% yesterday. But I felt the run was very weak. There were just a few leading stocks breaking out. I believe it tried to test the water, the pull back is imminent; but don't expect a down-turn, the market is ready for a big up side. It is just doing some consolidation for a while. In other words, the MMs are short of stocks, yesterday's run was too quick and too sudden. So MMs are driving the after and pre-market down to collect some shares. So any dip is a good buy.
Again, it proves that NO Panic and No Greedy works.
3:00 PM
It proves that my estimate was with the market trend. The indices were down 2% (tech down 2.5% with heavy volume), but I have spotted that DOW's volume is very light. So I added AAPL position. Now, the market is recovering.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Tuesday 7-23-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is strong. The market comes back strong. I believe the excitement should give the market a good lift. Hold on your shares. Don't sell to0 early. But definitely will sell AAPL calls and stock. No greedy here as it has generated a decent profit.
The pre-market is strong. The market comes back strong. I believe the excitement should give the market a good lift. Hold on your shares. Don't sell to0 early. But definitely will sell AAPL calls and stock. No greedy here as it has generated a decent profit.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Monday 10-21-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is a huge down turn. The world markets sold off. But I see the futures are moving back a little bit. So I think there might be a rebounce today and early tomorrow. Then the market will move down again.
Again, watch to exit some positions while the market rebounce.
7:00 PM
During the session, I unloaded YHOO calls, AMZN stock and calls and SPWR call, in which AMZN will report earning tomorrow after market, so I believe tomorrow AMZN will be down. Other calls are Nov, I am afraid of the down turn market will swipe out all the time-value. So I sold them.
The AAPL earning was great, the stock went up after the market. So tomorrow's QQQQ should be up huge. Watch out the fading. But don't play the short side, I believe the market should hold it at least for one day.
The pre-market is a huge down turn. The world markets sold off. But I see the futures are moving back a little bit. So I think there might be a rebounce today and early tomorrow. Then the market will move down again.
Again, watch to exit some positions while the market rebounce.
7:00 PM
During the session, I unloaded YHOO calls, AMZN stock and calls and SPWR call, in which AMZN will report earning tomorrow after market, so I believe tomorrow AMZN will be down. Other calls are Nov, I am afraid of the down turn market will swipe out all the time-value. So I sold them.
The AAPL earning was great, the stock went up after the market. So tomorrow's QQQQ should be up huge. Watch out the fading. But don't play the short side, I believe the market should hold it at least for one day.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
10-20-2007 Weekend
It was a very bad. The whole portfolio lost 50% gain. Here is the list of calls needs cut loss:
1. cnx
2. bhp
3. fmcn
I expect the market rebounce from here, then sell off. So unload the above calls first. If there is any strongness, sell other positions. Meanwhile, seeking weak financials to short.
1. cnx
2. bhp
3. fmcn
I expect the market rebounce from here, then sell off. So unload the above calls first. If there is any strongness, sell other positions. Meanwhile, seeking weak financials to short.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Friday 10-19-2007
8:30 AM
The trading plan is to watch the positions I have added yesterday. And take profit if it fits the selling points (look at the daily chart).
The market is mixed this morning, I believe that the fed will cut rate again by the end of month, as the yield curve is telling the story. Today is the option expiration day, so it might be quiet day as the price has already settled by the actions last Friday and this Monday.
9:15 AM
CAT reported another missing earning, it is the 2nd time. So cut loss on its call at opening.
5:30 PM
Today is a huge down. DOW down 380 points. It is also expiration day. The market was a straight down.
For this moment, stay LONG and stay strong.
Long selected Tech
Short financials and retails
The trading plan is to watch the positions I have added yesterday. And take profit if it fits the selling points (look at the daily chart).
The market is mixed this morning, I believe that the fed will cut rate again by the end of month, as the yield curve is telling the story. Today is the option expiration day, so it might be quiet day as the price has already settled by the actions last Friday and this Monday.
9:15 AM
CAT reported another missing earning, it is the 2nd time. So cut loss on its call at opening.
5:30 PM
Today is a huge down. DOW down 380 points. It is also expiration day. The market was a straight down.
For this moment, stay LONG and stay strong.
Long selected Tech
Short financials and retails
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Thurday 10-18-2007
8:30 AM
There are 2 markets in this market. One is the bear and one is the bull. The bear is the financials, real estate, food, high oil price related. The bull is high tech, metal, oil related, and low dollar related. You have to understand how to play with them. Never short the bull, and never long the bear.
I have been made a couple of mistakes on longing the bear (HOV) and shorting the bull (RIMM). You have to clear it up RIGHT NOW.
The market is still in the down trend correction. Keep on the dry powders. I don't think in this overall bull market, the bear is fatter than the bull. So looking this correction as the bull buying dip opportunity.
10:00 PM
In the morning, I have loaded the stocks listed last night. The market closed mixed with tech strong, and DOW lagged a little.
There are 2 markets in this market. One is the bear and one is the bull. The bear is the financials, real estate, food, high oil price related. The bull is high tech, metal, oil related, and low dollar related. You have to understand how to play with them. Never short the bull, and never long the bear.
I have been made a couple of mistakes on longing the bear (HOV) and shorting the bull (RIMM). You have to clear it up RIGHT NOW.
The market is still in the down trend correction. Keep on the dry powders. I don't think in this overall bull market, the bear is fatter than the bull. So looking this correction as the bull buying dip opportunity.
10:00 PM
In the morning, I have loaded the stocks listed last night. The market closed mixed with tech strong, and DOW lagged a little.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
About GOLD
The gold is in finishing 2nd wave around 750, and going to a correction, then coming up with a huge wave up to 900. Waiting for the entry point in 600s.
Wednesday 10-17-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is going up huge. No chase. Seeking to sell calls. Put some positions on 200 ANSS stocks in the later session.
Watch out the first 30 minutes. Absolute no long.
12:30 PM
The market is strong with high volume. I think that a good investor has to be a lonesome. I do believe that the trend is down and market is going lower. So I have shorted the QQQQ and RIMM, got out the CSCO calls. I will watch it closely, and if I am wrong, I will close the position quickly.
5:30 PM
The market turned around and finished up very strong. The NAS is much stronger than ever. I lost a few thousand on the shorting positions.
I believe that the market will go from here much higher. The short term correction is over.
Portfolio to be built:
1. SIGM is a entry point. Buy Jan 60 calls.
2. CIEN in entry point, buy Jan 50 calls
3. ITRI buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
4. FMCN Jan 60 call entry point
5. IVGN stock - medical generic
6. NDAQ stock entry point
7. PCP buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
8. RIMM jan 115 call entry point
9. BHP jan 90 call entry point
10. TRMB stock entry point
11. AMZN stock
12. BIDU jan 330 call
13. Watch GOOG
The pre-market is going up huge. No chase. Seeking to sell calls. Put some positions on 200 ANSS stocks in the later session.
Watch out the first 30 minutes. Absolute no long.
12:30 PM
The market is strong with high volume. I think that a good investor has to be a lonesome. I do believe that the trend is down and market is going lower. So I have shorted the QQQQ and RIMM, got out the CSCO calls. I will watch it closely, and if I am wrong, I will close the position quickly.
5:30 PM
The market turned around and finished up very strong. The NAS is much stronger than ever. I lost a few thousand on the shorting positions.
I believe that the market will go from here much higher. The short term correction is over.
Portfolio to be built:
1. SIGM is a entry point. Buy Jan 60 calls.
2. CIEN in entry point, buy Jan 50 calls
3. ITRI buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
4. FMCN Jan 60 call entry point
5. IVGN stock - medical generic
6. NDAQ stock entry point
7. PCP buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
8. RIMM jan 115 call entry point
9. BHP jan 90 call entry point
10. TRMB stock entry point
11. AMZN stock
12. BIDU jan 330 call
13. Watch GOOG
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Tuesday 10-16-2007
6:00 AM
Market going south, short candidates:
FDX
COF
MA
CAL - one of the air just reported a good earning, so skip this one.
9:00 AM
The momentum tech is very strong, get out of Aapl put early. I believe the market will rebounce from today's low, which ends the A wave, and starts the B Wave.
10:25 AM
Today is not a good, although I have exited almost all the positions, but left the calls alone. I should have exited the calls too. Now, almost all my oct calls are worthless. It is a big lesson. If the market turns, you should get rid of everything even the losing positions.
1:30 PM
With a relatively low volume, the market is not done yet. It is still in the down trend.
7:40 PM
The intel and yahoo's earning are great. The future market is going up. I don't think it should carry the market up too much. So watch it closely, and unload calls if it fades.
Take a small position in AMZN, SIGM, NVDA, and TRMB stocks.
Market going south, short candidates:
FDX
COF
MA
CAL - one of the air just reported a good earning, so skip this one.
9:00 AM
The momentum tech is very strong, get out of Aapl put early. I believe the market will rebounce from today's low, which ends the A wave, and starts the B Wave.
10:25 AM
Today is not a good, although I have exited almost all the positions, but left the calls alone. I should have exited the calls too. Now, almost all my oct calls are worthless. It is a big lesson. If the market turns, you should get rid of everything even the losing positions.
1:30 PM
With a relatively low volume, the market is not done yet. It is still in the down trend.
7:40 PM
The intel and yahoo's earning are great. The future market is going up. I don't think it should carry the market up too much. So watch it closely, and unload calls if it fades.
Take a small position in AMZN, SIGM, NVDA, and TRMB stocks.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Monday 10-15-2007
8:30 AM
The futures are off a little bit. Keep in mind that it was coming from the raging bull of Friday's closing. I expect the market is in the side mode at least today.
11:30 AM
Actually, the market is a big sell off. Last Friday, I have exited almost all my positions, so I am in a good shape. I am thinking about to do a short-term short. But I am not in the mode, I will study it tonight. Elliot Wave explains today's action.
9:00 PM
The market down. I expect it goes down more.
Short candidates:
COF
MA
Nile
The futures are off a little bit. Keep in mind that it was coming from the raging bull of Friday's closing. I expect the market is in the side mode at least today.
11:30 AM
Actually, the market is a big sell off. Last Friday, I have exited almost all my positions, so I am in a good shape. I am thinking about to do a short-term short. But I am not in the mode, I will study it tonight. Elliot Wave explains today's action.
9:00 PM
The market down. I expect it goes down more.
Short candidates:
COF
MA
Nile
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Weekend
Historically, 3rd week of OCT is very bad. Stay away. Let's see.
Using Elliott Wave theory, many stocks have finished their 1-2-3-4-5 wave, and now are in A-B-C down turn wave.
Stocks look into after this down turn trend finishes:
1. VLNC (green techs)
2. ISRG (medical devices)
3. ITRI (electricity grid)
4. HOT techs
5. ANSS (basic engineering software)
6. US dollar devaluation plays.
Using Elliott Wave theory, many stocks have finished their 1-2-3-4-5 wave, and now are in A-B-C down turn wave.
Stocks look into after this down turn trend finishes:
1. VLNC (green techs)
2. ISRG (medical devices)
3. ITRI (electricity grid)
4. HOT techs
5. ANSS (basic engineering software)
6. US dollar devaluation plays.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Friday 10-12-2007
9:20 AM
The pre-market is up as expected. That means that yesterday's sell off is merely a profit taken. But watch it closely, the key is that see if it can hold. I do expect some choppy trade today. If it holds well, strong buy on AMZN and DSX calls. Watch BIDU and GOOG closely as I expect more down. RIMM call is just too expensive, can't play this one.
VLCK can be a small play with a buyout candidate, if have a chance.
9:00 PM
Ironically, said No sell in yesterday's blog, but I sold almost all the holdings. It was a panic sell. I feared the sell off would re-occurred though knew the chance was very slim. It showed that there was lack of disciples. Anyway, now I am mostly in cash.
Next week will be the big earning week.
The pre-market is up as expected. That means that yesterday's sell off is merely a profit taken. But watch it closely, the key is that see if it can hold. I do expect some choppy trade today. If it holds well, strong buy on AMZN and DSX calls. Watch BIDU and GOOG closely as I expect more down. RIMM call is just too expensive, can't play this one.
VLCK can be a small play with a buyout candidate, if have a chance.
9:00 PM
Ironically, said No sell in yesterday's blog, but I sold almost all the holdings. It was a panic sell. I feared the sell off would re-occurred though knew the chance was very slim. It showed that there was lack of disciples. Anyway, now I am mostly in cash.
Next week will be the big earning week.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Thurday 10-11-2007
8:00 AM
The market is going too quick and too fast. Generally speaking, when the trend is formed, Carl is mostly right.
The pre-market is up a lot. It proves that yesterday's down reaction to BA and Chevy's strike was over reaction. I had the similarly feeling. It should be a good day.
I put a market order last night to expect the irrational on China FEED, this morning, it went up 15%. Interesting!
10:00 AM
Very heavy buying for the 1st half hours.
8:30 PM
In the afternoon around 2 pm, the market started selling. It ended with +100 to -100 swing. Closed at -64 in the DOW.
The sell off is totally off the guard, and I think it is not legit. Although it appears panic, more towards technical, no fundamental. So no panic here. As the matter of fact, I am buying like crazy. Tomorrow is the key, if it keeps the down trend, then a 3% correction is in play; if it gaps up, technically, it is a 1 down covering 3 up pattern, should be treated as a continous trend pattern.
Action for tomorrow:
Good stocks are on sale right now:
1. Watch, don't panic. If it needs to sell, only sell GLD, MOO, MPEL, All Tasrs. Again most likely, NO sell.
2. Watch BIDU and GOOG, they go as a pair. I expect GOOG to sink to 580s, and BIDU goes side way for a while. So just wait.
3. AAPL/RIMM/BIDU/GOOG/AMZN/VCLK
4. Safe play: Oil services XTO
The market is going too quick and too fast. Generally speaking, when the trend is formed, Carl is mostly right.
The pre-market is up a lot. It proves that yesterday's down reaction to BA and Chevy's strike was over reaction. I had the similarly feeling. It should be a good day.
I put a market order last night to expect the irrational on China FEED, this morning, it went up 15%. Interesting!
10:00 AM
Very heavy buying for the 1st half hours.
8:30 PM
In the afternoon around 2 pm, the market started selling. It ended with +100 to -100 swing. Closed at -64 in the DOW.
The sell off is totally off the guard, and I think it is not legit. Although it appears panic, more towards technical, no fundamental. So no panic here. As the matter of fact, I am buying like crazy. Tomorrow is the key, if it keeps the down trend, then a 3% correction is in play; if it gaps up, technically, it is a 1 down covering 3 up pattern, should be treated as a continous trend pattern.
Action for tomorrow:
Good stocks are on sale right now:
1. Watch, don't panic. If it needs to sell, only sell GLD, MOO, MPEL, All Tasrs. Again most likely, NO sell.
2. Watch BIDU and GOOG, they go as a pair. I expect GOOG to sink to 580s, and BIDU goes side way for a while. So just wait.
3. AAPL/RIMM/BIDU/GOOG/AMZN/VCLK
4. Safe play: Oil services XTO
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Wednesday 10-10-2007
7:00 AM
The market is in a comfort zone.
1. Buy 20 GRMN oct 115 calls
2. Buy chnr
10:00 AM
It started with some sell pressure, also the volume is heavy. So I believe the market will go side way today. Bought both mentioned above, a little bit under water right now.
The market is in a comfort zone.
1. Buy 20 GRMN oct 115 calls
2. Buy chnr
10:00 AM
It started with some sell pressure, also the volume is heavy. So I believe the market will go side way today. Bought both mentioned above, a little bit under water right now.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Short GOOG and Long BIDU
GOOG and BIDU are leading the market higher. You can see that Google has reached the top of its second box near the 618 level and normal action here would be a least a brief drop to 575 or so. I am revising my upside target at bit to the confluence of two Fibonacci targets in the 705-708 range. The 705 level is 610 points above the low trade price of 95 for GOOG the day after its IPO in 2004. The 708 level is 377 points above the 331 low established in March of 2006.
BIDU blew right past the top of its second box and will probably continue up at least to the top of its third box at 373 and eventually higher than that.
From carl futia
Tuesday 10-9-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is going crazy in NAZ, but I expect IXIC goes side ways. The DOW catches up. So do this today:
AA earning after closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Buy 20 TRA jan 35 calls - MOS earning was good. Didn't buy the calls, bought stocks instead.
Buy 10 CAT jan 85 calls.
10:30 AM
Market is definitely on the turning point, I just don't know how low it will go. It might just touch the surface. The overall sentiment is high. Watch vix closely. The Dow might jump.
5:00 PM
As it was expected around 2:30 pm, the DOW jumped. The reason of the jump was the Fed meeting minutes. It is clearly stated that Fed wants to cut the rate. So the game is still on. The dollar will continously weak, and the commodities and oil and metals will be up, so are China stocks. I think that we were on the right track.
Before this, there were 2 segments under pressure, oil and metals. Look into those stocks.
The pre-market is going crazy in NAZ, but I expect IXIC goes side ways. The DOW catches up. So do this today:
AA earning after closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Buy 20 TRA jan 35 calls - MOS earning was good. Didn't buy the calls, bought stocks instead.
Buy 10 CAT jan 85 calls.
10:30 AM
Market is definitely on the turning point, I just don't know how low it will go. It might just touch the surface. The overall sentiment is high. Watch vix closely. The Dow might jump.
5:00 PM
As it was expected around 2:30 pm, the DOW jumped. The reason of the jump was the Fed meeting minutes. It is clearly stated that Fed wants to cut the rate. So the game is still on. The dollar will continously weak, and the commodities and oil and metals will be up, so are China stocks. I think that we were on the right track.
Before this, there were 2 segments under pressure, oil and metals. Look into those stocks.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Monday 10-8-2007
9:15 AM
The indices in pre-market are off a little bit. The nervousness of market is not that. My nervousness is that China market. The market is getting close to its peak. What if it crashes, and what's the reaction of the world market. Be very caution here!!!
So follow this weekend's plan for today:
1. Unload all options positions today.
2. Set trailing stop for all Chinese stocks.
11:00 AM
The market down a little bit. The breath is not good. Just a few leaders are going up. It should go to consolidation mode soon. Personally, slow down, and take a breath. As it is still a bull market, I still hold long positions.
Obviously the market is going down. For the next leg up, make sure you are getting calls in Jan 08. Play safe here.
The TNH is a very tricky as it is in a very thin volume. It goes up and down too quickly, and too volatile. I have to quit it. The NAZ volume is very heavy comparing with holiday (today is Columbia's day) volume, the bond market is closed. I expect tomorrow's downturn.
1:30 PM
Although the market is losing its direction right now, it shoud be clear that the trend is down.
9:00 PM
Earning play:
AA tomorrow at closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Get in 20 TRA jan 35 calls.
I expect the market consolidate one more day tomorrow.
The indices in pre-market are off a little bit. The nervousness of market is not that. My nervousness is that China market. The market is getting close to its peak. What if it crashes, and what's the reaction of the world market. Be very caution here!!!
So follow this weekend's plan for today:
1. Unload all options positions today.
2. Set trailing stop for all Chinese stocks.
11:00 AM
The market down a little bit. The breath is not good. Just a few leaders are going up. It should go to consolidation mode soon. Personally, slow down, and take a breath. As it is still a bull market, I still hold long positions.
Obviously the market is going down. For the next leg up, make sure you are getting calls in Jan 08. Play safe here.
The TNH is a very tricky as it is in a very thin volume. It goes up and down too quickly, and too volatile. I have to quit it. The NAZ volume is very heavy comparing with holiday (today is Columbia's day) volume, the bond market is closed. I expect tomorrow's downturn.
1:30 PM
Although the market is losing its direction right now, it shoud be clear that the trend is down.
9:00 PM
Earning play:
AA tomorrow at closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Get in 20 TRA jan 35 calls.
I expect the market consolidate one more day tomorrow.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Investment Pitfalls and Jackpots
Investment Pitfalls in this environment where dollar falls with commodities prices going up:
1. Cash
2. Bonds
3. Large cap non-international stocks
4. Defensive groups: cosmetics, food, retails stores, airlines, autos, chemicals
Jackpots:
1. Gold and precious metals
2. Oil and oil services companies
3. Commercial real estate
4. Chindia
1. Cash
2. Bonds
3. Large cap non-international stocks
4. Defensive groups: cosmetics, food, retails stores, airlines, autos, chemicals
Jackpots:
1. Gold and precious metals
2. Oil and oil services companies
3. Commercial real estate
4. Chindia
Saturday, October 6, 2007
10-06-2007 Weekend
1. There is an article on LDK in Barron this weekend, it reported accounting problem. So SELL LDK. Set stop on all Chinese Stocks.
2. Sell all QQQQ, AAPL, and 1/2 GOOG calls. Seeking re-entry of all of them.
3. Watch AA, earning after close on Tuesday, don't expect a good earning anyway.
3. Watch GE, earning on Friday before opening, watch the l-9 call options.
4. Watch BNI's call - earning on 10/23/07, and if there is any chance, get 10 of them.
4. GOOG earning 10-18-2007 after close; AAPL earning 10-22-2007 after close.
5. Oil related: Buy 100 of DWSN in renshan2 on Monday. Watch NXY and TTI, TTI is leaving from its bottom island.
2. Sell all QQQQ, AAPL, and 1/2 GOOG calls. Seeking re-entry of all of them.
3. Watch AA, earning after close on Tuesday, don't expect a good earning anyway.
3. Watch GE, earning on Friday before opening, watch the l-9 call options.
4. Watch BNI's call - earning on 10/23/07, and if there is any chance, get 10 of them.
4. GOOG earning 10-18-2007 after close; AAPL earning 10-22-2007 after close.
5. Oil related: Buy 100 of DWSN in renshan2 on Monday. Watch NXY and TTI, TTI is leaving from its bottom island.
Friday, October 5, 2007
中国股市
10-5-2007
中国股市上证5600-5800是近期的顶，已经前进了70-75%。很可能有800-900点的修正， 预计4800-5000是下一个入场区；之后，预计，中国股市上证的下一个顶是8000。
9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。
8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。 我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。
中国股市上证5600-5800是近期的顶，已经前进了70-75%。很可能有800-900点的修正， 预计4800-5000是下一个入场区；之后，预计，中国股市上证的下一个顶是8000。
9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。
8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。 我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。
Friday 10-05-2007
7:00 AM
I was in training for a whole day yesterday. No way to access online. I had to put a couple of GOOG call buy orders by automatic trade, although the entry point is definitely not good. Basically, I was in active buying yesterday.
Although the after hour trade yesterday was very gloom. The all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The last 3 days are a typical 3 wave correction if looking in 15-minute chart. The pre-market this morning is up. The major thing in this week is the unemployment report at 8:30 am. I am kinda having some ideas of how the street playing with this event. BTW, the job report is the most important report for the market. For this whole week, the market activities are all around this report. The market had setup an uptrend on Monday, then started a 3-day minor correction. Today, market will do an uptrend again, which should last for a few days.
9:30 AM
You can tell INTC has problem. Seeking to exit it soon. (I have sold it at noon, but still holding the losing call options)
4:45 PM
What a day! The indices are actually not moving very big. But QQQQ is moving great. Around 1:00 pm, I have noticed that the option with higher beta doesn't move as fast as lower betas, so I shift Apple calls from high beta to low beta. I expect this rally continues on Moday.
Home work, read a book on options trade with more details.
I was in training for a whole day yesterday. No way to access online. I had to put a couple of GOOG call buy orders by automatic trade, although the entry point is definitely not good. Basically, I was in active buying yesterday.
Although the after hour trade yesterday was very gloom. The all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The last 3 days are a typical 3 wave correction if looking in 15-minute chart. The pre-market this morning is up. The major thing in this week is the unemployment report at 8:30 am. I am kinda having some ideas of how the street playing with this event. BTW, the job report is the most important report for the market. For this whole week, the market activities are all around this report. The market had setup an uptrend on Monday, then started a 3-day minor correction. Today, market will do an uptrend again, which should last for a few days.
9:30 AM
You can tell INTC has problem. Seeking to exit it soon. (I have sold it at noon, but still holding the losing call options)
4:45 PM
What a day! The indices are actually not moving very big. But QQQQ is moving great. Around 1:00 pm, I have noticed that the option with higher beta doesn't move as fast as lower betas, so I shift Apple calls from high beta to low beta. I expect this rally continues on Moday.
Home work, read a book on options trade with more details.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总
ZT from 风生水起(股票专坛):在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总：
◎ 门户网站类◎
ASIA 亚信科技控股有限公司
TOMO Tom.com
SINA Sina.com
SOHU sohu.com
CHINA China.com
◎游戏类◎
SNDA 盛大互动娱乐
NTES 网易
NCTY 9城
WZEN Webzen公司(中国概念)
◎短信增值服务◎
LTON 掌上灵通
HRAY HURRAY HOLDING CO LTD,华友世纪
KONG Kongzhong, 空中网
◎通信◎
UTSI UTstarcom
CNTF 德信无线
CHA 中国电信
CNC 网通
CHU 联通
CHL 中国移动通信
GRRF 国人通讯
TSTC 东方信联
◎客户服务网站◎
CTRP 携程
LONG E龙
JRJC 金融界
JOBS 51jobs.com
BIDU 百度
FMCN 分众传媒
APYM Asia Payment Systems
HMIN 如家连锁酒店
JOBS 51JOB－前程无忧
XFML 新华财经媒体
EFUT 富基软件
◎生物科技◎
SVA Sinovac BiotechBBC 博迪森农业肥料
YHGG 亚盛
AOB 东方生物科技
ADY American Dairy
CKGT 康太生物科技
AXJ 沈阳生化
AXM Pharma Inc
CMED 中国医药
TCM 同济堂制药
SSRX 三生制药
SCR 先声药业
SYUT 圣元国际
◎ 能源◎
YZC 兖州煤矿
SHI 上海石化
JCC 吉林石化
PTR 中石油
SNP 中石化
HNP 华能
CEO 中国海洋石油总公司
CESV China Energy Saving
STP 无锡尚德
YGE 天威英利
CSIQ 阿特斯太阳能
JASO 晶澳太阳能
TSL 常州天合
SOLF 林洋新能
TSL 天合光能
CSUN 中电光伏
LDK 江西赛维
◎运输◎
ZNH 南方航空
CEA 东方航空
GSH 广深铁路
HIHO Highway控股有限公司
◎其他◎
ACH 中国铝业股份有限公司
I*** INTAC国际股份有限公司
LFC 中国人寿股份有限公司
NINE 九城关贸－NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HLDGS
NTE 南太电子
SMI 中芯国际
VIMC 中星微
SVA 北京科兴 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
JST 金盘国际股份有限公司 Jinpan International Ltd
TBV 天狮国际
NWD New Dragon Asia Corp. Food industry
CYD 玉柴机器
DSWL Deswell Industries
CHDX 美中互利公司
CBA 华晨中国汽车控股有限公司
COGO 科通集团
ASTT ASAT Holdings
CBAK 比克电池
CTDC 中国科技
ACTS 珠海炬力集成
EDU 新东方
PACT 太平洋商业网络－电信增值业务提供商
BBC 杨凌博迪森
MR 迈瑞医疗
ATV 橡果国际
YTEC 宇信易诚
SPRD 展讯通信
SOLF 江苏林洋
SEED 奥瑞金种业
CSIQ 江苏阿特斯
HRBN 泰富电气
CSUN 中电电气
FFHL 富维薄膜
CPSL 中国精密钢铁
CAAS China Automotive Systems
XING 侨兴环球
QXM 侨兴移动
SORL 瑞立
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Inc
◎ 门户网站类◎
ASIA 亚信科技控股有限公司
TOMO Tom.com
SINA Sina.com
SOHU sohu.com
CHINA China.com
◎游戏类◎
SNDA 盛大互动娱乐
NTES 网易
NCTY 9城
WZEN Webzen公司(中国概念)
◎短信增值服务◎
LTON 掌上灵通
HRAY HURRAY HOLDING CO LTD,华友世纪
KONG Kongzhong, 空中网
◎通信◎
UTSI UTstarcom
CNTF 德信无线
CHA 中国电信
CNC 网通
CHU 联通
CHL 中国移动通信
GRRF 国人通讯
TSTC 东方信联
◎客户服务网站◎
CTRP 携程
LONG E龙
JRJC 金融界
JOBS 51jobs.com
BIDU 百度
FMCN 分众传媒
APYM Asia Payment Systems
HMIN 如家连锁酒店
JOBS 51JOB－前程无忧
XFML 新华财经媒体
EFUT 富基软件
◎生物科技◎
SVA Sinovac BiotechBBC 博迪森农业肥料
YHGG 亚盛
AOB 东方生物科技
ADY American Dairy
CKGT 康太生物科技
AXJ 沈阳生化
AXM Pharma Inc
CMED 中国医药
TCM 同济堂制药
SSRX 三生制药
SCR 先声药业
SYUT 圣元国际
◎ 能源◎
YZC 兖州煤矿
SHI 上海石化
JCC 吉林石化
PTR 中石油
SNP 中石化
HNP 华能
CEO 中国海洋石油总公司
CESV China Energy Saving
STP 无锡尚德
YGE 天威英利
CSIQ 阿特斯太阳能
JASO 晶澳太阳能
TSL 常州天合
SOLF 林洋新能
TSL 天合光能
CSUN 中电光伏
LDK 江西赛维
◎运输◎
ZNH 南方航空
CEA 东方航空
GSH 广深铁路
HIHO Highway控股有限公司
◎其他◎
ACH 中国铝业股份有限公司
I*** INTAC国际股份有限公司
LFC 中国人寿股份有限公司
NINE 九城关贸－NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HLDGS
NTE 南太电子
SMI 中芯国际
VIMC 中星微
SVA 北京科兴 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
JST 金盘国际股份有限公司 Jinpan International Ltd
TBV 天狮国际
NWD New Dragon Asia Corp. Food industry
CYD 玉柴机器
DSWL Deswell Industries
CHDX 美中互利公司
CBA 华晨中国汽车控股有限公司
COGO 科通集团
ASTT ASAT Holdings
CBAK 比克电池
CTDC 中国科技
ACTS 珠海炬力集成
EDU 新东方
PACT 太平洋商业网络－电信增值业务提供商
BBC 杨凌博迪森
MR 迈瑞医疗
ATV 橡果国际
YTEC 宇信易诚
SPRD 展讯通信
SOLF 江苏林洋
SEED 奥瑞金种业
CSIQ 江苏阿特斯
HRBN 泰富电气
CSUN 中电电气
FFHL 富维薄膜
CPSL 中国精密钢铁
CAAS China Automotive Systems
XING 侨兴环球
QXM 侨兴移动
SORL 瑞立
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Inc
Wednesday 10-03-2007
9:00 AM
Today is the prefect day for adding positions: The pre-market is down. Yesterday's market internal is very strong.
1. Add GLD 200 as planned;
2. Buy 400 shares of PWRD, who is in 3D gaming play in renshan2735;
3. Too late for selling MPEL is down pre-market, just hold;
4. Looking for load up in renshan2 with some momentum play.
11:00 AM
I know that I am getting better, at least I have been riding with the market trend. The market is decisively going up from here. 2 good days of consolidation. Stay long.
By large, I think I still have some psychic mental blocks when the indices making lows, and don't have the motivation or energy to act. I knew I was not fear or scared at all. But it was kind of lack of energy. Basically, I should buy at the market low.
Another observation: when in the minor correction or consolidation, the 1st day is the day people were just out from the bull, so people are still very bullish. The buys are flood in at the open, and the market shows very strong resistance. In 2nd day, some weak hands start being shocked out. So the sells should be much fierce than the 1st day. In the late of the 2nd trading session, the buys re-surge, and push the market up to the trend.
3:00 PM
Home work: how to identify and deal with correction, need to find a system to deal with it. During 2-2:30 pm, I bottom-fished a few stocks, but the timing was still way off.
Strategy:
1. Again, based on TAs, although it is hard to do when at work;
2. Buy dip on dollar average;
Today is the prefect day for adding positions: The pre-market is down. Yesterday's market internal is very strong.
1. Add GLD 200 as planned;
2. Buy 400 shares of PWRD, who is in 3D gaming play in renshan2735;
3. Too late for selling MPEL is down pre-market, just hold;
4. Looking for load up in renshan2 with some momentum play.
11:00 AM
I know that I am getting better, at least I have been riding with the market trend. The market is decisively going up from here. 2 good days of consolidation. Stay long.
By large, I think I still have some psychic mental blocks when the indices making lows, and don't have the motivation or energy to act. I knew I was not fear or scared at all. But it was kind of lack of energy. Basically, I should buy at the market low.
Another observation: when in the minor correction or consolidation, the 1st day is the day people were just out from the bull, so people are still very bullish. The buys are flood in at the open, and the market shows very strong resistance. In 2nd day, some weak hands start being shocked out. So the sells should be much fierce than the 1st day. In the late of the 2nd trading session, the buys re-surge, and push the market up to the trend.
3:00 PM
Home work: how to identify and deal with correction, need to find a system to deal with it. During 2-2:30 pm, I bottom-fished a few stocks, but the timing was still way off.
Strategy:
1. Again, based on TAs, although it is hard to do when at work;
2. Buy dip on dollar average;
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
关于中概
关于中概：现在的中概分为价值和玩弄：
1，10元以下股：KONG LTON HRAY ，就价值ER而言，现在的估价都源源高了100%。但由于其2周前古价已经接近现金直+3G所以可以有上升的空间。本月目标10元；SVA，量好的抬头，如同曾经的JRJC 。一旦过10元，可以满仓进入；ACTS，CNTF 都和3G有关，股价现在都低估。
2，IPO的股，EJ又会想HMIN EDU到40去；RCH会去12
3，10元以上股：
1）游戏：SNDA 其在35~37间连续7天交易上200万，已经建立仓位，等待消息拉升，放心那好，千万不要听捣乱的，他对AAPL RIMM GOOG 中概股没有发言权，如同放屁；秋月还可以：NTES ，PWRD，NCTY都是大盘中概股，这2周都是10元一下，60元以上的中概股在玩。所以那好了，下一波就是他们了，因为他们都到历史高位，和KONG LTON等历史底位不同；
2）门户：SINA SOHU NTES，都没涨，但2周都已经去过历史高位，现在在储备动能，你去SINA看一下，全食大公司的广告。本月SINA 60；SOHU 45 NTES 22
3）广告FMCN，旅游CTRP，教育EDU和上面分析一致。在等待：FMCN 70，CTRP 60，EDU 70
4，兰筹股：CHL SNP HNP PTR CEO LFC ，最好买股票，中期蚩尤3~6月。其股价已经很高，但会隔天2~5%涨幅。缩小和A股的差距。
As of right now. I like SSRX, CTDC, SVA, EJ, FMCN (jan 45c), PWRD (entry point), CTRP, EDU, LFC
1. Get PWRD, and FMCN(c)
1，10元以下股：KONG LTON HRAY ，就价值ER而言，现在的估价都源源高了100%。但由于其2周前古价已经接近现金直+3G所以可以有上升的空间。本月目标10元；SVA，量好的抬头，如同曾经的JRJC 。一旦过10元，可以满仓进入；ACTS，CNTF 都和3G有关，股价现在都低估。
2，IPO的股，EJ又会想HMIN EDU到40去；RCH会去12
3，10元以上股：
1）游戏：SNDA 其在35~37间连续7天交易上200万，已经建立仓位，等待消息拉升，放心那好，千万不要听捣乱的，他对AAPL RIMM GOOG 中概股没有发言权，如同放屁；秋月还可以：NTES ，PWRD，NCTY都是大盘中概股，这2周都是10元一下，60元以上的中概股在玩。所以那好了，下一波就是他们了，因为他们都到历史高位，和KONG LTON等历史底位不同；
2）门户：SINA SOHU NTES，都没涨，但2周都已经去过历史高位，现在在储备动能，你去SINA看一下，全食大公司的广告。本月SINA 60；SOHU 45 NTES 22
3）广告FMCN，旅游CTRP，教育EDU和上面分析一致。在等待：FMCN 70，CTRP 60，EDU 70
4，兰筹股：CHL SNP HNP PTR CEO LFC ，最好买股票，中期蚩尤3~6月。其股价已经很高，但会隔天2~5%涨幅。缩小和A股的差距。
As of right now. I like SSRX, CTDC, SVA, EJ, FMCN (jan 45c), PWRD (entry point), CTRP, EDU, LFC
1. Get PWRD, and FMCN(c)
Tuesday 10-2-2007
8:45 AM
The yield curve is getting steeper, which is good for financial companies, particularly, for mortgage companies. The market had a great run yesterday, and today there might be a pause. But I expect it to close higher.
10:45 AM
Market is still resilient. The volume is very heavy but the internal breath is very health. Up advances are large than declines. Hold on.
Seeking entry point for QQQQ.
2:10 PM
First time see the crazy stocks, bidu and lvs. Unfortunately, I have unloaded around 1:30 pm today. Anyway, the stock has a long up leg.
8:00 PM
The market is getting crazy. It is the time that everybody can make money in the market. I think it should last at least 3 months.
Tomorrow plan/action:
1. Sell MPEL at open.
The yield curve is getting steeper, which is good for financial companies, particularly, for mortgage companies. The market had a great run yesterday, and today there might be a pause. But I expect it to close higher.
10:45 AM
Market is still resilient. The volume is very heavy but the internal breath is very health. Up advances are large than declines. Hold on.
Seeking entry point for QQQQ.
2:10 PM
First time see the crazy stocks, bidu and lvs. Unfortunately, I have unloaded around 1:30 pm today. Anyway, the stock has a long up leg.
8:00 PM
The market is getting crazy. It is the time that everybody can make money in the market. I think it should last at least 3 months.
Tomorrow plan/action:
1. Sell MPEL at open.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Monday 10-1-2007
8:50 AM
The market is very resilient. The world market is up this morning. And US market had some bad news from financials such as Citibank and UBS. But I believe the worst is over already, and the market is going up. Dow 14000 will be broken easily.
Watch FNM closely.
12:00 PM
Wow, wow! All major indices are up 1%. Hang on tough.
4:25 PM
Smile! I just don't believe so many people still can't believe this up movement is for real. Just look at the volume of today. There is just not that much. This leads me to believe that the market will move up much much higher. Hold on the long positions.
Today, the financial, home builders, and real estate related stocks are bottoming up. If any weakness in those segments, buy stocks (not options) for a long term run.
7:45 PM
Tomorrow plan
1. Mainly looking for exiting calls.
The market is very resilient. The world market is up this morning. And US market had some bad news from financials such as Citibank and UBS. But I believe the worst is over already, and the market is going up. Dow 14000 will be broken easily.
Watch FNM closely.
12:00 PM
Wow, wow! All major indices are up 1%. Hang on tough.
4:25 PM
Smile! I just don't believe so many people still can't believe this up movement is for real. Just look at the volume of today. There is just not that much. This leads me to believe that the market will move up much much higher. Hold on the long positions.
Today, the financial, home builders, and real estate related stocks are bottoming up. If any weakness in those segments, buy stocks (not options) for a long term run.
7:45 PM
Tomorrow plan
1. Mainly looking for exiting calls.
- unload QQQQ (calls) at $1.9
- unload AAPL calls at $11
2. Watch sigm closely, this is a video semi play with good ranking in IBD
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