Investment Rules:


守不败之地,攻可赢之城。耐心等待好时机。选得好,不如时机选得巧。时间价位若没到,不会涨与跳。横盘不交易,自会有时机。买要等跳水,卖要等冲高。买阴不买阳,卖阳不卖阴。下跌时候要耐心,不到惊恐不买进。下跌反弹三次前,耐心等待站一边。头次反弹又回头,退出观望不发愁。下跌途中三次弹,谨慎伺机可建仓。众人惊恐我进场,人人欣喜我观望。惊恐跌过头,进场等着把钱收。疯狂涨过头,赶快了结闲悠悠。低位放量上攻可搭车,高位放量下跌赶紧撤。高位横盘又冲高,抓紧机会赶紧抛。低位横盘又新低,全仓进入好时机。低档横盘不怕套,高档横盘准备逃。天价不可买, 地价不要卖。天量不天亮,天气会变凉。情况若异常,赶紧先离场。

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Books

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09 Risk Management in Emerging Markets How to Survive and Prosper
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13 Trading in the Zone Master the Market with Confidence Discipline and a Winning Att
15 Way to Trade The Discover Your Successful Trading Personality


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Saturday, August 11, 2007

Option常识:Call的价格低于什么价位的时候,意味着可以套利?

假设某个股票目前价位是S, Call的Strike Price 是K,到期日离今天还有三个月,目前市场上三个月的短期利率是r。则Call 现在的价格: C >= S - K*exp(-r)如果发现Call的价格小于这个数,那就意味着有无风险套利的机会。

Friday, August 10, 2007

Friday 8-10-2007 - After Market

Market has opened -100 lower, dropped to more than -200 points. Then Fed came out pumping lots of money. The market started recovering. At noon, and before the closing, Dow went up to positive. It closed at -32 points. Overall, it is a very volatile day.

I have been reading many posts on the internet, and felt that mine buying into the market might be a little bit earlier. But I believe my instict. During the market open, I felt the market was bottoming out.

Good news, CMTL and AVCI are both coming back strong. I believe those are strong stocks, and should hold for a while.

Friday 8-10-2007 - Morning

The market has been on the tear. Yesterday 380 points down, and today 200 points down at this moment. I believe that it is just half way there. So far, I am right. I have sold out almost all the stocks I could sell, and this morning, I am long QID (in a small position).

The wall street is asking for the Fed to cut the interest rate. I am not sure if they will get it. But in order to place the market this close, I have to make sure the trades are good. And make sure once I am right, I need to sure that I can lock the profit.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Wednesday 8-8-2007 - Afternoon

Market up, Russell 2000 up 3%, and NAZ up 1.7%. A very good day with good breaths.

But my CMTL went down with the segment, they are down 4%, which sucks.

Wednesday 8/8/2007 - Afternoon

Today is a very good day, especially for the NAZ. It jumped 1.8% led by CSCO's good earning. But some reasons, the defence and telecommunication segment has been beat down. CMTL down 4% and AVCI down 10%. I will hold those position for a while to their next earning.



Lesson learned here is that never buy stocks less than 2B market cap, except it has a great market momentum.



Home builders are obviously bottoming. The whole segment has been up 8%.

Wednesday 8/8/2007 - Afternoon




Seven states are defined in my model:

TP1 : Turing Point, the stock maybe begin a uptrend from its bottom. If volume is heavy then buy only 10% to test the water. If it's right, then keep it. You will catch the fish tail( hope to eat all the way up to the head). If fails then sell it right way, you have minimum loss.

FTDW2: Follow Through Day One, the trend is a little bit clear so add 20% more.

FTDT0: Follow Through Day Two, stock continues going up but the risk of going down also picking up so do nothing at this time.

RS2: Stock approaches major resistance but still could not break out. You could add 20% more if it looks like it will break out from here some day.

BK5: This is the time to build your position if the stock finally breaks out with heavy volume. Don't hesitate to get in.Otherwise you will miss a fast moving train. But if it is a fake breakout you must sell it right way.

PB2: After breakout, some stock will have a light volume pull back. This is the best time to add more to your positionBKFS: Breakout Failure Sell All. If the stock could not follow through in the following days and it break down with very heavy volume then sell them all at once.

BS0: Basing Zero. The stock is trading flat between the support and resistant zone. No action should be taken during this state. Otherwise you'll lose money. I have developed my own system to track stocks in the above movement and it proves working very good so far. All the stocks are divided automatically by my system and I only focus TP1 and BK5 to buy stocks and BKFS to sell stocks. This saves me a lot of time and I could focus on Buy and Sell. The above mentioned reverse pyramid method to build up position is copied from an Econ professor in Berkley University who quit his job and trading full time later.

Tuesday 8/7/2008 - Evening

It is a wide-ride. Right after Fed's annoucement, the market went down 100 points then up 100 points. Then it settled in the original trend. Reference my previous post for my original thought.

Again, I think the home builders should be in accumulation. Today, I got a little bit of HOV. Here is a list of builders with ranks:
1. NVR
2. CTX
3. PHM, DHI, KBH, RYL, TOL
4. BZH, HOV

Here is the portfolio for my home builder bottom fish:
HOV, CTX, and PHM. Each will be evenly weighted. The goal is to accumulate it from now to next 3 months, with $100k.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Tuesday 8/7/2008 Noon

Yesterday, it had a good day. The DOW went up more than 280 points, which covered Friday's lost. S&P was strong too. But NAZ was a little bit weak.



This morning, it gave some back. It was down more than 100 points at early. But around noon, all the indice came up with green again. The market is waiting for Fed's statement around 2:15 pm. Basically, it is in a stall mode. From what I observed, I incline to believe that the market is ready to pop up. Mainly based on a few things:



1. TA: Last Wednesday 8/1/2007 was the first rally with Dow's volume over 5B. Yesterday was a follow up, the volume was over 5B again which was larger than the most volume in any down days.

2. FA: The sub-prime issue has some impact some loan companies but not in a wide-spread mode. A few lender such as WFC and CFC are very healthy. Big investment banks stocks are rebouncing very strongly. US market returns are among the lowest of the world. With its current devaluation, S&P gain barely covered its lost for the US dollar. So it is a very cheap market.

3. Policy: Fed is definitely ready to save the market.

Tuesday 8/7/2007 - Early Afternoon

Yesterday, DOW went up over 280 points. This early morning, it gave up more than 100 points. But now, it turns green. From 12:00 to now, it is on the side way and waiting for the fed meeting statement out around 2:15 pm.

I recall it is the similar action in March after the sell-out. From Technical point of view, I believe yesterday's rally was the follow through of 8/1/07 first rally in the downward channel. Both of yesterday and 8/1/07 rally's Dow volume were around 5B, more than any down daily volume. I think that the market is on the uptrend channel. Fed meeting statement announcement will just interrupt the trend a little bit. After the statement out around 2:15 pm, it will be a brief down and a brief up (in no real order), then continues on its original course.

I unloaded CSCO this morning as I think it might be a repeat of INTC, which was not a good quarter. I am trying to dip buy a little bit of home builder (HOV). I think that BZH and HOV are good buy at current price.

Here was my operation from 2:10 - 2:30 pm.
1. Entered buy order for HOV at the current day low $11.30;
2. Sold 300 QLD at current market price $95.60;
After the news out,
1. Bought back 200 QLD at $94.57
2. Bought 200 VSEA at $50.21

Here are some issues:
0. First, the market move. It went up a little bit right after the news, then dropped 100 points in Dow, went back on to -20 points level, then dropped again over 100 points. Now it is climbing back on.
1. The QLD moved higher right after I sold, but within 1 minute, it dropped like crazy.
2. The waiting period for re-entery should be longer. It did re-test its low.
3. QLD order should be in smaller slot.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Monday 8/6/2007 - Morning

The market dropped 281 point on Friday. People were panic and it happened in the last 2 hours. I was out and didn't monitor it. But it would be better if stops were set. Overall, the sentiment wasn't too bad.

After the weekend, this morning, the market gapped up at open, though I don't feel it was strong. I think the market will go a little lower from here in the morning. But it might go up today.

For this bottoming stage, it might be good for a trade, but don't leave the market. The upward might be very strong.

Friday, August 3, 2007

Friday 8/2/2007 - Morning

People are talking about the Fed easing and the bond market has already priced it in by Pimco. According to Pimco, the market will be down on the day for Fed easing. But all over, it is a good time to buy the stocks. Also, watch the real estate stocks, if Fed easing, they will jump.

This morning, the unemployment number was up. Apperantly, the market doesn't like it. The pre-market indice are down. I will sell some partition of my holding.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Thursday 8/2/2007 - Morning

The market opened positive for the first half an hour and now is almost flat during 10:00 - 10:30 am. It is expected. I feel the market will consolidate for a while. Tomorrow's unemployment might give it a lift to a medium term top, then it will go down to test the low.

This morning, TASR has a bad PR which pressed the stock down 10%. It was about the law suites it has. To me, it is a noise. But it will be pressed for a couple of days. It might re-test its low.

Now the market is closed. Again, last 1 hour buy drove the market up higher. TASR is just amazing. It closed up with more than 12% swim. It looks to me that the real estate related industries might be bottoming right now. Keep an eye on, and accumulate some from now on.

Wednesday 8/1/2007 - Evening

The early pre-market in the morning 6 am was dramatically low. The dow was down over 100 points. But it moved up to almost break even at the open. The market drafted up and down, it was all over the place, but mostly stayed under water. But when qqqq dropped close to $47. I bottom fished again, got QLD in. The market tested the NAS at 2519 for 2 times. The 2nd time was close to 3 pm. After that, the market moved up. Dow was up strong, but NAS was lagged.

Overall, DaQuan's comments were all over the place too. Some are bull and some are bear. But DaoLan corrected marked the NAS 2519 as the strong support point. Although, NAS broke 2519 one time, it was not fierce at all.

The game for August is playing in the range. The market will be more volatile, and more trading fits for the style.

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Tuesday 7/31/2007 - Afternoon

The market dropped again. It happened right after the AHM declared bankruptcy at the noon time. Somebody said it might be caused by some hedge funds were liquidating. But anyway, it is definitely a hard-time, in top of just loading up with a bottom fish mentality.

Now, Carl stated that the bottom was just a few points away. The CNBC's fastmoney guys are scared, and they said that if the market lower at open tomorrow, they would sell SPY and QQQQ.

Let's see.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Tuesday 7/31/2007 - Morning

The Monday's movement was a classical. In the morning, pre-market moved indice higher. It then dropped to a few points lower than last session, tested the low 3 times. The market was up and down around the last session closing point. Then it moved upwards. Overall, the volume was high but not very high. The uptrend was decisive, but not overwhelming.

This morning, it opened higher, but sold out. Most of the indices are way off their highes. My feeling is that it will consolidate here, going side ways. Tomorrow, it might give another push. Then it gets ready for testing the low it made a few days ago.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Friday 7/27/2007 - After Hours

Again, the market is down again. The DOW off 200 point, NAZ off 37, and S&P off 23. But the whole action was totally different than yesterday. In the morning, the market rallied to +50 points in the Dow in the first 45 minutes. Then dropped to the low around 12:30 pm. Re-tested around 1 pm. It then started steadily up trend. Unfortunately, during the last half hour trade, it went down to the lowest point of the day.

During the afternoon period, I have been a dip buyer, loaded up with some QLD, SNDK, and AAPL, added some position for CMTL. Just a note that I unloaded all VSEA in the morning trade, since I felt it wouldn't make a new high in this market situation.

The funny thing is that around 2:30 pm, Cramer cried out that it should be the market bottom, and load up. Again, Carl Futia's S&P market support 146 was broken down as well. The S&P went down to 145.11.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Thursday, 7/26/2007 - After Hours

Wow, what a day! The market was down 450 point in DOW, and 80 point in NAZ in the early afternoon. S&P was very weak too. It started sell off in the pre-market hours, the DOW future turned -100 around 9:00 am. But amazingly, AAPL and AMZN were holding very well in the morning. Right after 1:30 pm, everything is off the guard. I sold the AAPL and AMZN. And dip bought QLD and VSEA.

The VSEA should have a very good earning, as stated in the previous earning report. This morning, the MM drove the stock to as low as below $41. In the last 2 hours, it started climbing back on. It closed positive in this big down day. I added some positions.

During the lowest level, I felt it was very challenging but excited. Before, I dare not to watch it when it melt down. Now, I kept watching, monitoring, changing strategies, buying and selling stocks. I know that I am gaining experiences. By the close of today, my accounts ended with no loss. I know that I am making progress.

Meanwhile, VSEA reported a great earning, and the stock is up 4%. Let's see how it turns out tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Wednesday 7/25/2007 - Morning

It had a one day big drop in the DOW, 226 points of drop yesterday, due to sub prime spread over. Bill Gross came out and stated that the market should correct 5-10%. Meanwhile, AMZN reported a great earning (luckily, I didn't sold 1/2 position yesterday). It traded up 12% in the after market.

With stocks such as AMZN trading like this, I surely believe that the market is still in great bull run, and any dip is a good buying point. Due to the in certain condition of the market, I won't add new position at this moment. But in any weakness on the existing holding positions, addition position should be proper. Meanwhile, looking for an exiting point from AMZN today.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Tuesday 7/24/2007 - Morning

AMZN is reporting its earning this afternoon. I plan to unload a 1/2 position at loss before the earning. Yesterday, I unloaded VSEA in the early afternoon. But right after the closing, the chart shows a breakout pattern, the post marketing trade showed jump in the bidding price. I got in again paying $1.25 higher than the price I sold. A mistake should be avoid if I had just sold half of the position.