7:15 AM
The pre-market is up huge again, as Fed will cut rate on 12/11 meeting. Since this time, the news is out earlier than usual, "buy on the rumor, and sell on news." So this is my thought:
1. For a mid-term period, SP 1490-1500 is up resistance level, I expect the market to touch this zone, and go back to test the low 1420-1400.
2. For the short-term, since I was on the wrong side, basically, I have lost all the qualifications. So I have to stay away from current market, and just wait.
3. This market is going much faster than I expect on each direction.
Here are some important data:
1. SP 1490 50%, 1510 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
2. QQQQ 51.83 50%, 52.59 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
I won't take any action before those numbers get violated: SP 1490 and QQQQ 52.59. If the market carries its way too much, I will buy SP put in my zecco account on spy's upper bb level, which is 149.6 for hourly based trade. Again, short-term, very short-term.
A good trader is "看空但是不做空"
11:00 AM
I did buy put on SPY at 9:45 AM - 2 contract, very small position. BTW, I believe RIMM is forming the diamond reverse, once it drops below 115-110, it will go to 81.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Thursday 11-29-2007
1:30 PM
The market FA is all bearish. Not too much bullish sentiment out there. The economy growth is going slow. So this is the baseline. The issues is how the fed will do.
Technically, the market had a very good 2 days run, gained more than 500 points. All the major trends are still pointing down. Again, I just hold my short positions. I will add more short positions once the TA shows sign.
The market FA is all bearish. Not too much bullish sentiment out there. The economy growth is going slow. So this is the baseline. The issues is how the fed will do.
Technically, the market had a very good 2 days run, gained more than 500 points. All the major trends are still pointing down. Again, I just hold my short positions. I will add more short positions once the TA shows sign.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Wednesday 11-28-2007
9:10 AM
The pre-market went up huge. I expect another big up today. But it is still a bounce, not trend reverse. Since I am not available for the day. I still just hold all my short positions. Some are in a deep water. But I am not worry.
1:15 PM
The market is up on the 2nd day (yesterday, it was up 215, today is 265 right now.) But I still don't believe the bottom has been made, as I haven't seen the panic selling. I am holding what I have and just put my head into the sand for a while.
I think the short-term trend is up. After those 2 days huge up, it should turn soft and consolidation for a while. I will close Dec put and take loss while there is any chance, and keep all the other short positions.
The pre-market went up huge. I expect another big up today. But it is still a bounce, not trend reverse. Since I am not available for the day. I still just hold all my short positions. Some are in a deep water. But I am not worry.
1:15 PM
The market is up on the 2nd day (yesterday, it was up 215, today is 265 right now.) But I still don't believe the bottom has been made, as I haven't seen the panic selling. I am holding what I have and just put my head into the sand for a while.
I think the short-term trend is up. After those 2 days huge up, it should turn soft and consolidation for a while. I will close Dec put and take loss while there is any chance, and keep all the other short positions.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Tuesday 11-27-2007
8:00 AM
The pre-market is up. Don't get sucked in. The trend is definitely down from both daily and weekly TA. The re-bounce should be very weak. If long, you have to give your enough time to monitor, otherwise, stay short that you don't have to monitor too closely.
9:20 AM
MOS is in a perfect h&s formation. Short a small portion right here around $64 with stop $65.5. Once it breaks the neckline around $58. Add short position.
1:00 PM
All indices are up around 1.5%. Taking almost all the loss back from yesterday. That means that at current level, bulls and bears are really neck to neck. The market leaders are taking rest, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM are not advancing too much.
8:30 PM
I am still very bearish. The well street is getting ready for the recession. GS upgraded the strong segments, big cap biotech, defense, and tabecho; others belong to downgrades.
The pre-market is up. Don't get sucked in. The trend is definitely down from both daily and weekly TA. The re-bounce should be very weak. If long, you have to give your enough time to monitor, otherwise, stay short that you don't have to monitor too closely.
9:20 AM
MOS is in a perfect h&s formation. Short a small portion right here around $64 with stop $65.5. Once it breaks the neckline around $58. Add short position.
1:00 PM
All indices are up around 1.5%. Taking almost all the loss back from yesterday. That means that at current level, bulls and bears are really neck to neck. The market leaders are taking rest, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM are not advancing too much.
8:30 PM
I am still very bearish. The well street is getting ready for the recession. GS upgraded the strong segments, big cap biotech, defense, and tabecho; others belong to downgrades.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Monday 11-26-2007
8:00 AM
Last Friday after Thanksgiving, market went up with positive rally. Today, the pre-market is up a little. It tramed much larger earlier gain. So the trend is to open higher and go lower.
Meanwhile, it is officially a bear market. As the Dow made a recent low on 11/23/2007 before Thanksgiving. So make sure all position is mainly in short side. Long position can be only for short-term trade.
11:00 AM
The trend is right. The market is going down. The financial is weak. So I will buy some SKF (ultra short financial XLF)
4:15 PM
The market is on the way down. Major indices broke on all previous low.
Bought 100 shares of SKF before lunch. And at the close, bot 5 contacts of rimm put.
Last Friday after Thanksgiving, market went up with positive rally. Today, the pre-market is up a little. It tramed much larger earlier gain. So the trend is to open higher and go lower.
Meanwhile, it is officially a bear market. As the Dow made a recent low on 11/23/2007 before Thanksgiving. So make sure all position is mainly in short side. Long position can be only for short-term trade.
11:00 AM
The trend is right. The market is going down. The financial is weak. So I will buy some SKF (ultra short financial XLF)
4:15 PM
The market is on the way down. Major indices broke on all previous low.
Bought 100 shares of SKF before lunch. And at the close, bot 5 contacts of rimm put.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Weekend 11-24-2007
上周坐游船去了加热比海，在古巴的附近。陆续贴些照片。
1。 http://fishdb.sinica.edu.tw/2001new/importpic.asp?id=D05 鱼在一起。
2。在墨西哥，当地人在游行。 
1。 http://fishdb.sinica.edu.tw/2001new/importpic.asp?id=D05 鱼在一起。
2。在墨西哥，当地人在游行。
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Weekend 11-17-2007
The Friday's was OE day, and the market did a huge "W" formation. So for the short-term, I think NAZ will go up to form the left shoulder. Overall, the market is in a very bad shape. It will go down huge once the formation is done.
Trade down trend from now on.
Next week, I am going to cruise. So no worry for this moment.
Trade down trend from now on.
Next week, I am going to cruise. So no worry for this moment.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Thursday 11-15-2007
8:00 AM
The future is off a little bit. I checked the oversold and overbought ratio during this week, it is not extreme. So the next leg down is most likely. The PUT/CALL ratio of Tuesday's big run up was around 1.2. Yesterday, the market went down in last 20 minutes, PUT/CALL ratio was 0.9.
12:00 PM
It is flat as expected. It should be flat tomorrow as well. Next week, not too much activities too, as people are going to holidays.
3:00 PM
The market is dropping over 133 points, adding to yesterday's 70 points, it is more than 200 point which is more than 62% retrace of Tuesday's huge rally, which is not a good sign. If it can't pull back a little bit, tomorrow won't be good.
9:45 PM
1. The PUT/CALL ratio is 1.4.
2. The Down volume is huge, almost close to the high in 2 months.
The future is off a little bit. I checked the oversold and overbought ratio during this week, it is not extreme. So the next leg down is most likely. The PUT/CALL ratio of Tuesday's big run up was around 1.2. Yesterday, the market went down in last 20 minutes, PUT/CALL ratio was 0.9.
12:00 PM
It is flat as expected. It should be flat tomorrow as well. Next week, not too much activities too, as people are going to holidays.
3:00 PM
The market is dropping over 133 points, adding to yesterday's 70 points, it is more than 200 point which is more than 62% retrace of Tuesday's huge rally, which is not a good sign. If it can't pull back a little bit, tomorrow won't be good.
9:45 PM
1. The PUT/CALL ratio is 1.4.
2. The Down volume is huge, almost close to the high in 2 months.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Wednesday 11-14-2007
8:00 AM
The future is flat with a little bit down. I don't like this action at all. It will be a very weak sign if the market opens low. So be very caution here. Personally, I am still very bearish.
8:30 AM
If the market can pass 1490 in SP, and 13400 in DOW at close, I will be totally missing the opportunity. This is a TGH in my trading experiences. If it happens, don't jump in too quickly. Stay away for a while and play paper trade instead. Remember money is everything in the market, but you have to do it right.
1:30 PM
I expect the market keeps at this little up/flat today, and tomorrow, it goes up a few points or flat for the week. Then starting next week, it goes down for the last leg of this correction.
5:30 PM
The market tried to pass 2700 of NAZ, 1490 of SP, but failed. It is down 0.5% for the day.
1. PUT/CALL ratio 0.9
The future is flat with a little bit down. I don't like this action at all. It will be a very weak sign if the market opens low. So be very caution here. Personally, I am still very bearish.
8:30 AM
If the market can pass 1490 in SP, and 13400 in DOW at close, I will be totally missing the opportunity. This is a TGH in my trading experiences. If it happens, don't jump in too quickly. Stay away for a while and play paper trade instead. Remember money is everything in the market, but you have to do it right.
1:30 PM
I expect the market keeps at this little up/flat today, and tomorrow, it goes up a few points or flat for the week. Then starting next week, it goes down for the last leg of this correction.
5:30 PM
The market tried to pass 2700 of NAZ, 1490 of SP, but failed. It is down 0.5% for the day.
1. PUT/CALL ratio 0.9
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Tuesday 11-13-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is up more than 1%. The beaten down stocks are up around 4%.
Since yesterday, I am in an extreme bearish mode. I researched the chart pattern, and noticed that current chart pattern matches 1987 oct crash. So my mind set expects the market going that direction. For the week pre crash, the general market went down on Monday, and up 2-3% Tuesday; gap with huge down more than 4% on Wednesday; then falling from there. And crashed on Monday.
Today, I will just watch. At the close, if there is any weakness, put a small short position.
6:30 PM
The summary of the market:
1. DOW up 2.46%, NAZ up 3.46%, and SP up 2.91% with volume on average of previous 3 days.
2. PUT/CALL ratio is growing from 1.13 -> 1.27
The pre-market is up more than 1%. The beaten down stocks are up around 4%.
Since yesterday, I am in an extreme bearish mode. I researched the chart pattern, and noticed that current chart pattern matches 1987 oct crash. So my mind set expects the market going that direction. For the week pre crash, the general market went down on Monday, and up 2-3% Tuesday; gap with huge down more than 4% on Wednesday; then falling from there. And crashed on Monday.
Today, I will just watch. At the close, if there is any weakness, put a small short position.
6:30 PM
The summary of the market:
1. DOW up 2.46%, NAZ up 3.46%, and SP up 2.91% with volume on average of previous 3 days.
2. PUT/CALL ratio is growing from 1.13 -> 1.27
Monday, November 12, 2007
Monday 11-12-2007
8:00 AM
The future market is little change. That is good news. Shanghai market tested the 5031 low, and closed flat. HSI and Jap market were down 3-4%. But European market is mixed. People were talking about the official bear market on the weekend. The sentiment of the market was very bearish over the weekend. Basically, I was very scared and not easy on the weekend, based on the current position.
9:00 AM
The pre-market is position. So today's plan is to hold all the current positions. Looking for refill AAPL calls which was cut loss last Friday.
5:30 PM
The market is in extreme. I had to close all long positions and took huge loss. The market is very bearish. Although the indices are not down too much, the high flyers are down huge, from 5-15%.
The future market is little change. That is good news. Shanghai market tested the 5031 low, and closed flat. HSI and Jap market were down 3-4%. But European market is mixed. People were talking about the official bear market on the weekend. The sentiment of the market was very bearish over the weekend. Basically, I was very scared and not easy on the weekend, based on the current position.
9:00 AM
The pre-market is position. So today's plan is to hold all the current positions. Looking for refill AAPL calls which was cut loss last Friday.
5:30 PM
The market is in extreme. I had to close all long positions and took huge loss. The market is very bearish. Although the indices are not down too much, the high flyers are down huge, from 5-15%.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Weekend 11-10-2007
The last Friday was brutal. The market gapped down, and stayed down in a narrow trade range, and then in the last 30 minutes, it sold off.
I have to cut loss and sold 40 AAPL calls with $15000 loss. This weekend, the CNBC said there would be doozy of rally coming, and some experts are optimistic, I am scared though. That means the market is bottoming. So get ready to reload the position again. But this will be just a short term trade. I must get in and get out fast. Again, rumor is rumor. So still the TA is the best friend.
Monday's plan is as follows,
1. if the market gaps down at open, day trade AAPL.
2. if the market gaps up or flat at open, hold.
Seeking AAPL, RIM, and GOOG exit point during next week when one of them reaches:
DOW, 13400; SPX 1489; IXIC 2720; QQQQ, 53
I have to cut loss and sold 40 AAPL calls with $15000 loss. This weekend, the CNBC said there would be doozy of rally coming, and some experts are optimistic, I am scared though. That means the market is bottoming. So get ready to reload the position again. But this will be just a short term trade. I must get in and get out fast. Again, rumor is rumor. So still the TA is the best friend.
Monday's plan is as follows,
1. if the market gaps down at open, day trade AAPL.
2. if the market gaps up or flat at open, hold.
Seeking AAPL, RIM, and GOOG exit point during next week when one of them reaches:
DOW, 13400; SPX 1489; IXIC 2720; QQQQ, 53
Friday, November 9, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Thursday 11-08-2007
3:30 PM
The market is amazing, the NAZ went down 100 points, and now it is getting its feet back. It is really over done.
The pre-market was higher in the waking of Asia closed very low, the Europe mixed waiting. The market drafting around at the open level during the first 2 hours. Before lunch time, it went down, and made it lowest point around 1:00 PM. After that, the market recovered. The significant improvement started around 3:10 PM.
I loaded up with AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG calls. Haha! Very good move overall.
The market is amazing, the NAZ went down 100 points, and now it is getting its feet back. It is really over done.
The pre-market was higher in the waking of Asia closed very low, the Europe mixed waiting. The market drafting around at the open level during the first 2 hours. Before lunch time, it went down, and made it lowest point around 1:00 PM. After that, the market recovered. The significant improvement started around 3:10 PM.
I loaded up with AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG calls. Haha! Very good move overall.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Wednesday 11-07-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market was down more than 1% but is better than earlier. That means the futures are getting improvements. More fear, the better. I believe the market will go much much higher from now on. Again, any dip is a good buy.
Yesterday, I missed some energy-other, such as solar and gas. Now it is the time to add some.
1. Get 200 shares of MEE (coal and gas company)
2. Get in 100 shares of STP (solar play)
3. Get out 1/2 position of PWR (industrial infrastructral. earning tomorrow morning)
I did load up the MEE, but unfortunately, I didn't load up STP.
6:00 PM
The afternoon market was ugly. Indices broke all the major support lines. I have sold almost all the positions. And put some small short positions on high flyers RIMM, ISRG, and DRYS.
Remember the down turn will be short. So just take some profit and not be too greedy.
The pre-market was down more than 1% but is better than earlier. That means the futures are getting improvements. More fear, the better. I believe the market will go much much higher from now on. Again, any dip is a good buy.
Yesterday, I missed some energy-other, such as solar and gas. Now it is the time to add some.
1. Get 200 shares of MEE (coal and gas company)
2. Get in 100 shares of STP (solar play)
3. Get out 1/2 position of PWR (industrial infrastructral. earning tomorrow morning)
I did load up the MEE, but unfortunately, I didn't load up STP.
6:00 PM
The afternoon market was ugly. Indices broke all the major support lines. I have sold almost all the positions. And put some small short positions on high flyers RIMM, ISRG, and DRYS.
Remember the down turn will be short. So just take some profit and not be too greedy.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Tuesday 11-06-2007
8:20 AM
As expected, the pre-market is up. The normal market situation is that the first week of each month is bear. After that, it gets better. So I expect the general trend goes better.
If it is not the bottom, definitely, it is near the bottom. So this time, hold tight, less trade. Buy any dip if there is still cash left.
Today's play,
1. Load MOO with monthly $5K allowance
2. GOOG is on fire. But unfortunately, I missed it.
3. HOV just came out the preliminary earning report, it is better than other home builders.
10:20 AM
The HOLX was a huge surprise. The earning was very good, but the stock went down 8%. My 30 calls got hammered. This is the lesson: use small amount to play the ER with options.
11:10 AM
(TGH- The greatest humilidate) Very sick of HOV, I hate to do, but sold the calls and took $11K loss. Don't know what to do with the 2500 shares of stocks yet. I guess I will hold it for a while.
As expected, the pre-market is up. The normal market situation is that the first week of each month is bear. After that, it gets better. So I expect the general trend goes better.
If it is not the bottom, definitely, it is near the bottom. So this time, hold tight, less trade. Buy any dip if there is still cash left.
Today's play,
1. Load MOO with monthly $5K allowance
2. GOOG is on fire. But unfortunately, I missed it.
3. HOV just came out the preliminary earning report, it is better than other home builders.
10:20 AM
The HOLX was a huge surprise. The earning was very good, but the stock went down 8%. My 30 calls got hammered. This is the lesson: use small amount to play the ER with options.
11:10 AM
(TGH- The greatest humilidate) Very sick of HOV, I hate to do, but sold the calls and took $11K loss. Don't know what to do with the 2500 shares of stocks yet. I guess I will hold it for a while.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Monday 11-05-2007
9:50 AM
The pre-market was down huge with the whole world market. It opened low around 1% down, went lower, but didn't break yesterday's (last Friday's) low; then moved up a little. If it doesn't break last session's low, or close around today's open, it is a good sign.
The Chinese stocks get hit huge this time. I believe the bottom is near, so I won't trade. Stay neutral right now. Here are some reasons:
1. Financial and real estate- have been beaten down, and can't go any lower;
2. Tech - strong, and can't be beaten down;
3. The rests are drafting with the market.
4. China/HK market down was the policy delay, it should be one time. So I am not worry too much.
So, I don't see a big down turn from here.
11:30 AM
The market is still drafting in negative. It is a definitely a pig market. So I am taking so profits on RIMM and APPL, and back to 25% in cash.
11:45 AM
The QQQQ is forming an unique three river bullish pattern, which is a bullish reserve pattern. It needs to be confirmed by the new high (in previous 3 days). So hold on the bullits a little bit, I expect another drafting down in the afternoon. If it closes strong, jump in.
3:30 PM
The running up is fairly strong, I loaded up AAPL and RIMM back.
The pre-market was down huge with the whole world market. It opened low around 1% down, went lower, but didn't break yesterday's (last Friday's) low; then moved up a little. If it doesn't break last session's low, or close around today's open, it is a good sign.
The Chinese stocks get hit huge this time. I believe the bottom is near, so I won't trade. Stay neutral right now. Here are some reasons:
1. Financial and real estate- have been beaten down, and can't go any lower;
2. Tech - strong, and can't be beaten down;
3. The rests are drafting with the market.
4. China/HK market down was the policy delay, it should be one time. So I am not worry too much.
So, I don't see a big down turn from here.
11:30 AM
The market is still drafting in negative. It is a definitely a pig market. So I am taking so profits on RIMM and APPL, and back to 25% in cash.
11:45 AM
The QQQQ is forming an unique three river bullish pattern, which is a bullish reserve pattern. It needs to be confirmed by the new high (in previous 3 days). So hold on the bullits a little bit, I expect another drafting down in the afternoon. If it closes strong, jump in.
3:30 PM
The running up is fairly strong, I loaded up AAPL and RIMM back.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Weekend 11-04-2007
There are many Bears out there. In DQ, Qiuzhihaoyue and Daoluan turn bearish as well. The market is in critical point. I would rather be careful here. So looking for any strength to exit the long, mainly calls with profit, and build up some put positions on indices. Anyway, prefer neutral setup.
For the very short-term, I still believe the market is bullish, as last Friday closed strong. So I still believe the tech, commodities, and foreign markets are bull. The US internal is bear.
For the very short-term, I still believe the market is bullish, as last Friday closed strong. So I still believe the tech, commodities, and foreign markets are bull. The US internal is bear.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Thursday 11-01-2007
9:00 AM
The future is down a lot. I am happy that the market is back to normalcy. Buy dip on any weakness. Yesterday, I missed the AAPL calls, so hopefully, I can get it back. Also, get some GOOG and RIMM's calls. China is a risk play, be careful.
10:30 AM
The market is down huge, average 1.5% down so far. The legend A-B-C wave of correction is true, the C leg is developing, which means, the market will be down further. Don't be hero here right now. Hold on all your positions, and buy dip when it is developed.
The future is down a lot. I am happy that the market is back to normalcy. Buy dip on any weakness. Yesterday, I missed the AAPL calls, so hopefully, I can get it back. Also, get some GOOG and RIMM's calls. China is a risk play, be careful.
10:30 AM
The market is down huge, average 1.5% down so far. The legend A-B-C wave of correction is true, the C leg is developing, which means, the market will be down further. Don't be hero here right now. Hold on all your positions, and buy dip when it is developed.
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