8:45 AM
MA just announced a good earning, the stock in pre-market is up big, 7.8%. Prepare for unloading the call at the open. Fed decision annoucement around 2:10 pm, I expect it will be a .25 cut, but I hope the cut is .5. IMO, the deficit is so huge with the foreign governments holding the bag, why no just make a deep cut, which benefits a. unload the burdons to them; b. save the credit cruch. Let's see.
There was an earth quack in SF last night.
10:30 AM
The market opened higher, and stayed high. I believe the .25 cut news will cause the market to drop a little bit, then rally back to upside. So I will not sell here since the momentum is strong. Buy in the dip. Load up calls on techs.
5:30 AM
The fed cut rate by .25. The market went down briefly and went up around 1%. From here, I believe the market will go higher.
Current main player will be still Chinese stocks and commodities related and high tech.
1. Add RIMM calls
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Tuesday 07-30-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is down a little. But I don't see it is a big day today as Fed decision will be announced tomorrow. Today will be quiet.
I will hold all my positions through the day, and evaulate before closing today.
11:10 AM
The market is doing exactly the actions as the last time cut. Before the cust last time (9/18/2007), after 2 days running up, it went down a little bit. The next day, it went up from opening. Today, all the leading stocks are up. So I believe the market should go up from here. Again, re-evaluate before the closing, and see if there is any opportunities.
The pre-market is down a little. But I don't see it is a big day today as Fed decision will be announced tomorrow. Today will be quiet.
I will hold all my positions through the day, and evaulate before closing today.
11:10 AM
The market is doing exactly the actions as the last time cut. Before the cust last time (9/18/2007), after 2 days running up, it went down a little bit. The next day, it went up from opening. Today, all the leading stocks are up. So I believe the market should go up from here. Again, re-evaluate before the closing, and see if there is any opportunities.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Monday 07-29-2007
11:00 AM
The pre-market was strong, but it faded the gap. Now it is in the trading range with little move. I expect the market goes this way for today. There might be a 2 ways for tomorrow. It jumps up, which a sign for sell; or it trades in the range which means the market wants to jump up after the Fed meeting.
I have added some positions such as RIMM, EBAY, BHP's calls. The PCU went up too much, so I have to skip. Most of Chinese Stocks went up high and trade lower, so I think it is better don't touch them right now.
The pre-market was strong, but it faded the gap. Now it is in the trading range with little move. I expect the market goes this way for today. There might be a 2 ways for tomorrow. It jumps up, which a sign for sell; or it trades in the range which means the market wants to jump up after the Fed meeting.
I have added some positions such as RIMM, EBAY, BHP's calls. The PCU went up too much, so I have to skip. Most of Chinese Stocks went up high and trade lower, so I think it is better don't touch them right now.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Weekend 07-27-2007
The passing Friday had a good day, the market jumped on MSFT great earning news, and tech jumps with all segments except the semiconductor segment. The semi is pathetic anyway.
Next week, Fed will announcement the interest rate decision, and market is widely expecting 1/4 points cut. Actually, I believe the fed will do 1/2 points cut. If it is 1/4 points cut, I believe the market will sell off, and starts a second part of correction. So watch it closely.
But whatever, the real estate and financial segment should get a strong lift on the rate cut.
Looking to load up
1. CTRP stocks
2. Call PCU and EBAY (50 calls)
Next week, Fed will announcement the interest rate decision, and market is widely expecting 1/4 points cut. Actually, I believe the fed will do 1/2 points cut. If it is 1/4 points cut, I believe the market will sell off, and starts a second part of correction. So watch it closely.
But whatever, the real estate and financial segment should get a strong lift on the rate cut.
Looking to load up
1. CTRP stocks
2. Call PCU and EBAY (50 calls)
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Thursday 10-25-2007
8:40 AM
The pre-market is going up. There are a few good earnings such as Motorola, Amgen, Big Phamies. I expect the 4Q breaks out from here.
The dollar will be down, and US has successfully persuade China to increase the Yuan value. Now, it should be the text book play that all the commodities, oil, railway, dry shipping, farmers, and high tech shine; financial and retails sink.
Today, I think the market should be still in consolidation mode and waiting for the fed rate decision. 50 base points are in the expectation now, which is good for the fed to do the double play, a. support the financial credit crush; b. devalue the dollar.
10:30 AM
As expected, the new (today) and existing (yesterday) housing sale numbers are very bad. The durable goods number is not good either. So the fed cut is for certain. The financial stocks and home builders got lifted.
The pre-market is going up. There are a few good earnings such as Motorola, Amgen, Big Phamies. I expect the 4Q breaks out from here.
The dollar will be down, and US has successfully persuade China to increase the Yuan value. Now, it should be the text book play that all the commodities, oil, railway, dry shipping, farmers, and high tech shine; financial and retails sink.
Today, I think the market should be still in consolidation mode and waiting for the fed rate decision. 50 base points are in the expectation now, which is good for the fed to do the double play, a. support the financial credit crush; b. devalue the dollar.
10:30 AM
As expected, the new (today) and existing (yesterday) housing sale numbers are very bad. The durable goods number is not good either. So the fed cut is for certain. The financial stocks and home builders got lifted.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Wednesday 10-24-2007
8:30 AM
The market went up close 1% yesterday. But I felt the run was very weak. There were just a few leading stocks breaking out. I believe it tried to test the water, the pull back is imminent; but don't expect a down-turn, the market is ready for a big up side. It is just doing some consolidation for a while. In other words, the MMs are short of stocks, yesterday's run was too quick and too sudden. So MMs are driving the after and pre-market down to collect some shares. So any dip is a good buy.
Again, it proves that NO Panic and No Greedy works.
3:00 PM
It proves that my estimate was with the market trend. The indices were down 2% (tech down 2.5% with heavy volume), but I have spotted that DOW's volume is very light. So I added AAPL position. Now, the market is recovering.
The market went up close 1% yesterday. But I felt the run was very weak. There were just a few leading stocks breaking out. I believe it tried to test the water, the pull back is imminent; but don't expect a down-turn, the market is ready for a big up side. It is just doing some consolidation for a while. In other words, the MMs are short of stocks, yesterday's run was too quick and too sudden. So MMs are driving the after and pre-market down to collect some shares. So any dip is a good buy.
Again, it proves that NO Panic and No Greedy works.
3:00 PM
It proves that my estimate was with the market trend. The indices were down 2% (tech down 2.5% with heavy volume), but I have spotted that DOW's volume is very light. So I added AAPL position. Now, the market is recovering.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Tuesday 7-23-2007
8:30 AM
The pre-market is strong. The market comes back strong. I believe the excitement should give the market a good lift. Hold on your shares. Don't sell to0 early. But definitely will sell AAPL calls and stock. No greedy here as it has generated a decent profit.
The pre-market is strong. The market comes back strong. I believe the excitement should give the market a good lift. Hold on your shares. Don't sell to0 early. But definitely will sell AAPL calls and stock. No greedy here as it has generated a decent profit.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Monday 10-21-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is a huge down turn. The world markets sold off. But I see the futures are moving back a little bit. So I think there might be a rebounce today and early tomorrow. Then the market will move down again.
Again, watch to exit some positions while the market rebounce.
7:00 PM
During the session, I unloaded YHOO calls, AMZN stock and calls and SPWR call, in which AMZN will report earning tomorrow after market, so I believe tomorrow AMZN will be down. Other calls are Nov, I am afraid of the down turn market will swipe out all the time-value. So I sold them.
The AAPL earning was great, the stock went up after the market. So tomorrow's QQQQ should be up huge. Watch out the fading. But don't play the short side, I believe the market should hold it at least for one day.
The pre-market is a huge down turn. The world markets sold off. But I see the futures are moving back a little bit. So I think there might be a rebounce today and early tomorrow. Then the market will move down again.
Again, watch to exit some positions while the market rebounce.
7:00 PM
During the session, I unloaded YHOO calls, AMZN stock and calls and SPWR call, in which AMZN will report earning tomorrow after market, so I believe tomorrow AMZN will be down. Other calls are Nov, I am afraid of the down turn market will swipe out all the time-value. So I sold them.
The AAPL earning was great, the stock went up after the market. So tomorrow's QQQQ should be up huge. Watch out the fading. But don't play the short side, I believe the market should hold it at least for one day.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
10-20-2007 Weekend
It was a very bad. The whole portfolio lost 50% gain. Here is the list of calls needs cut loss:
1. cnx
2. bhp
3. fmcn
I expect the market rebounce from here, then sell off. So unload the above calls first. If there is any strongness, sell other positions. Meanwhile, seeking weak financials to short.
1. cnx
2. bhp
3. fmcn
I expect the market rebounce from here, then sell off. So unload the above calls first. If there is any strongness, sell other positions. Meanwhile, seeking weak financials to short.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Friday 10-19-2007
8:30 AM
The trading plan is to watch the positions I have added yesterday. And take profit if it fits the selling points (look at the daily chart).
The market is mixed this morning, I believe that the fed will cut rate again by the end of month, as the yield curve is telling the story. Today is the option expiration day, so it might be quiet day as the price has already settled by the actions last Friday and this Monday.
9:15 AM
CAT reported another missing earning, it is the 2nd time. So cut loss on its call at opening.
5:30 PM
Today is a huge down. DOW down 380 points. It is also expiration day. The market was a straight down.
For this moment, stay LONG and stay strong.
Long selected Tech
Short financials and retails
The trading plan is to watch the positions I have added yesterday. And take profit if it fits the selling points (look at the daily chart).
The market is mixed this morning, I believe that the fed will cut rate again by the end of month, as the yield curve is telling the story. Today is the option expiration day, so it might be quiet day as the price has already settled by the actions last Friday and this Monday.
9:15 AM
CAT reported another missing earning, it is the 2nd time. So cut loss on its call at opening.
5:30 PM
Today is a huge down. DOW down 380 points. It is also expiration day. The market was a straight down.
For this moment, stay LONG and stay strong.
Long selected Tech
Short financials and retails
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Thurday 10-18-2007
8:30 AM
There are 2 markets in this market. One is the bear and one is the bull. The bear is the financials, real estate, food, high oil price related. The bull is high tech, metal, oil related, and low dollar related. You have to understand how to play with them. Never short the bull, and never long the bear.
I have been made a couple of mistakes on longing the bear (HOV) and shorting the bull (RIMM). You have to clear it up RIGHT NOW.
The market is still in the down trend correction. Keep on the dry powders. I don't think in this overall bull market, the bear is fatter than the bull. So looking this correction as the bull buying dip opportunity.
10:00 PM
In the morning, I have loaded the stocks listed last night. The market closed mixed with tech strong, and DOW lagged a little.
There are 2 markets in this market. One is the bear and one is the bull. The bear is the financials, real estate, food, high oil price related. The bull is high tech, metal, oil related, and low dollar related. You have to understand how to play with them. Never short the bull, and never long the bear.
I have been made a couple of mistakes on longing the bear (HOV) and shorting the bull (RIMM). You have to clear it up RIGHT NOW.
The market is still in the down trend correction. Keep on the dry powders. I don't think in this overall bull market, the bear is fatter than the bull. So looking this correction as the bull buying dip opportunity.
10:00 PM
In the morning, I have loaded the stocks listed last night. The market closed mixed with tech strong, and DOW lagged a little.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
About GOLD
The gold is in finishing 2nd wave around 750, and going to a correction, then coming up with a huge wave up to 900. Waiting for the entry point in 600s.
Wednesday 10-17-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is going up huge. No chase. Seeking to sell calls. Put some positions on 200 ANSS stocks in the later session.
Watch out the first 30 minutes. Absolute no long.
12:30 PM
The market is strong with high volume. I think that a good investor has to be a lonesome. I do believe that the trend is down and market is going lower. So I have shorted the QQQQ and RIMM, got out the CSCO calls. I will watch it closely, and if I am wrong, I will close the position quickly.
5:30 PM
The market turned around and finished up very strong. The NAS is much stronger than ever. I lost a few thousand on the shorting positions.
I believe that the market will go from here much higher. The short term correction is over.
Portfolio to be built:
1. SIGM is a entry point. Buy Jan 60 calls.
2. CIEN in entry point, buy Jan 50 calls
3. ITRI buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
4. FMCN Jan 60 call entry point
5. IVGN stock - medical generic
6. NDAQ stock entry point
7. PCP buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
8. RIMM jan 115 call entry point
9. BHP jan 90 call entry point
10. TRMB stock entry point
11. AMZN stock
12. BIDU jan 330 call
13. Watch GOOG
The pre-market is going up huge. No chase. Seeking to sell calls. Put some positions on 200 ANSS stocks in the later session.
Watch out the first 30 minutes. Absolute no long.
12:30 PM
The market is strong with high volume. I think that a good investor has to be a lonesome. I do believe that the trend is down and market is going lower. So I have shorted the QQQQ and RIMM, got out the CSCO calls. I will watch it closely, and if I am wrong, I will close the position quickly.
5:30 PM
The market turned around and finished up very strong. The NAS is much stronger than ever. I lost a few thousand on the shorting positions.
I believe that the market will go from here much higher. The short term correction is over.
Portfolio to be built:
1. SIGM is a entry point. Buy Jan 60 calls.
2. CIEN in entry point, buy Jan 50 calls
3. ITRI buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
4. FMCN Jan 60 call entry point
5. IVGN stock - medical generic
6. NDAQ stock entry point
7. PCP buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
8. RIMM jan 115 call entry point
9. BHP jan 90 call entry point
10. TRMB stock entry point
11. AMZN stock
12. BIDU jan 330 call
13. Watch GOOG
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Tuesday 10-16-2007
6:00 AM
Market going south, short candidates:
FDX
COF
MA
CAL - one of the air just reported a good earning, so skip this one.
9:00 AM
The momentum tech is very strong, get out of Aapl put early. I believe the market will rebounce from today's low, which ends the A wave, and starts the B Wave.
10:25 AM
Today is not a good, although I have exited almost all the positions, but left the calls alone. I should have exited the calls too. Now, almost all my oct calls are worthless. It is a big lesson. If the market turns, you should get rid of everything even the losing positions.
1:30 PM
With a relatively low volume, the market is not done yet. It is still in the down trend.
7:40 PM
The intel and yahoo's earning are great. The future market is going up. I don't think it should carry the market up too much. So watch it closely, and unload calls if it fades.
Take a small position in AMZN, SIGM, NVDA, and TRMB stocks.
Market going south, short candidates:
FDX
COF
MA
CAL - one of the air just reported a good earning, so skip this one.
9:00 AM
The momentum tech is very strong, get out of Aapl put early. I believe the market will rebounce from today's low, which ends the A wave, and starts the B Wave.
10:25 AM
Today is not a good, although I have exited almost all the positions, but left the calls alone. I should have exited the calls too. Now, almost all my oct calls are worthless. It is a big lesson. If the market turns, you should get rid of everything even the losing positions.
1:30 PM
With a relatively low volume, the market is not done yet. It is still in the down trend.
7:40 PM
The intel and yahoo's earning are great. The future market is going up. I don't think it should carry the market up too much. So watch it closely, and unload calls if it fades.
Take a small position in AMZN, SIGM, NVDA, and TRMB stocks.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Monday 10-15-2007
8:30 AM
The futures are off a little bit. Keep in mind that it was coming from the raging bull of Friday's closing. I expect the market is in the side mode at least today.
11:30 AM
Actually, the market is a big sell off. Last Friday, I have exited almost all my positions, so I am in a good shape. I am thinking about to do a short-term short. But I am not in the mode, I will study it tonight. Elliot Wave explains today's action.
9:00 PM
The market down. I expect it goes down more.
Short candidates:
COF
MA
Nile
The futures are off a little bit. Keep in mind that it was coming from the raging bull of Friday's closing. I expect the market is in the side mode at least today.
11:30 AM
Actually, the market is a big sell off. Last Friday, I have exited almost all my positions, so I am in a good shape. I am thinking about to do a short-term short. But I am not in the mode, I will study it tonight. Elliot Wave explains today's action.
9:00 PM
The market down. I expect it goes down more.
Short candidates:
COF
MA
Nile
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Weekend
Historically, 3rd week of OCT is very bad. Stay away. Let's see.
Using Elliott Wave theory, many stocks have finished their 1-2-3-4-5 wave, and now are in A-B-C down turn wave.
Stocks look into after this down turn trend finishes:
1. VLNC (green techs)
2. ISRG (medical devices)
3. ITRI (electricity grid)
4. HOT techs
5. ANSS (basic engineering software)
6. US dollar devaluation plays.
Using Elliott Wave theory, many stocks have finished their 1-2-3-4-5 wave, and now are in A-B-C down turn wave.
Stocks look into after this down turn trend finishes:
1. VLNC (green techs)
2. ISRG (medical devices)
3. ITRI (electricity grid)
4. HOT techs
5. ANSS (basic engineering software)
6. US dollar devaluation plays.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Friday 10-12-2007
9:20 AM
The pre-market is up as expected. That means that yesterday's sell off is merely a profit taken. But watch it closely, the key is that see if it can hold. I do expect some choppy trade today. If it holds well, strong buy on AMZN and DSX calls. Watch BIDU and GOOG closely as I expect more down. RIMM call is just too expensive, can't play this one.
VLCK can be a small play with a buyout candidate, if have a chance.
9:00 PM
Ironically, said No sell in yesterday's blog, but I sold almost all the holdings. It was a panic sell. I feared the sell off would re-occurred though knew the chance was very slim. It showed that there was lack of disciples. Anyway, now I am mostly in cash.
Next week will be the big earning week.
The pre-market is up as expected. That means that yesterday's sell off is merely a profit taken. But watch it closely, the key is that see if it can hold. I do expect some choppy trade today. If it holds well, strong buy on AMZN and DSX calls. Watch BIDU and GOOG closely as I expect more down. RIMM call is just too expensive, can't play this one.
VLCK can be a small play with a buyout candidate, if have a chance.
9:00 PM
Ironically, said No sell in yesterday's blog, but I sold almost all the holdings. It was a panic sell. I feared the sell off would re-occurred though knew the chance was very slim. It showed that there was lack of disciples. Anyway, now I am mostly in cash.
Next week will be the big earning week.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Thurday 10-11-2007
8:00 AM
The market is going too quick and too fast. Generally speaking, when the trend is formed, Carl is mostly right.
The pre-market is up a lot. It proves that yesterday's down reaction to BA and Chevy's strike was over reaction. I had the similarly feeling. It should be a good day.
I put a market order last night to expect the irrational on China FEED, this morning, it went up 15%. Interesting!
10:00 AM
Very heavy buying for the 1st half hours.
8:30 PM
In the afternoon around 2 pm, the market started selling. It ended with +100 to -100 swing. Closed at -64 in the DOW.
The sell off is totally off the guard, and I think it is not legit. Although it appears panic, more towards technical, no fundamental. So no panic here. As the matter of fact, I am buying like crazy. Tomorrow is the key, if it keeps the down trend, then a 3% correction is in play; if it gaps up, technically, it is a 1 down covering 3 up pattern, should be treated as a continous trend pattern.
Action for tomorrow:
Good stocks are on sale right now:
1. Watch, don't panic. If it needs to sell, only sell GLD, MOO, MPEL, All Tasrs. Again most likely, NO sell.
2. Watch BIDU and GOOG, they go as a pair. I expect GOOG to sink to 580s, and BIDU goes side way for a while. So just wait.
3. AAPL/RIMM/BIDU/GOOG/AMZN/VCLK
4. Safe play: Oil services XTO
The market is going too quick and too fast. Generally speaking, when the trend is formed, Carl is mostly right.
The pre-market is up a lot. It proves that yesterday's down reaction to BA and Chevy's strike was over reaction. I had the similarly feeling. It should be a good day.
I put a market order last night to expect the irrational on China FEED, this morning, it went up 15%. Interesting!
10:00 AM
Very heavy buying for the 1st half hours.
8:30 PM
In the afternoon around 2 pm, the market started selling. It ended with +100 to -100 swing. Closed at -64 in the DOW.
The sell off is totally off the guard, and I think it is not legit. Although it appears panic, more towards technical, no fundamental. So no panic here. As the matter of fact, I am buying like crazy. Tomorrow is the key, if it keeps the down trend, then a 3% correction is in play; if it gaps up, technically, it is a 1 down covering 3 up pattern, should be treated as a continous trend pattern.
Action for tomorrow:
Good stocks are on sale right now:
1. Watch, don't panic. If it needs to sell, only sell GLD, MOO, MPEL, All Tasrs. Again most likely, NO sell.
2. Watch BIDU and GOOG, they go as a pair. I expect GOOG to sink to 580s, and BIDU goes side way for a while. So just wait.
3. AAPL/RIMM/BIDU/GOOG/AMZN/VCLK
4. Safe play: Oil services XTO
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Wednesday 10-10-2007
7:00 AM
The market is in a comfort zone.
1. Buy 20 GRMN oct 115 calls
2. Buy chnr
10:00 AM
It started with some sell pressure, also the volume is heavy. So I believe the market will go side way today. Bought both mentioned above, a little bit under water right now.
The market is in a comfort zone.
1. Buy 20 GRMN oct 115 calls
2. Buy chnr
10:00 AM
It started with some sell pressure, also the volume is heavy. So I believe the market will go side way today. Bought both mentioned above, a little bit under water right now.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Short GOOG and Long BIDU
GOOG and BIDU are leading the market higher. You can see that Google has reached the top of its second box near the 618 level and normal action here would be a least a brief drop to 575 or so. I am revising my upside target at bit to the confluence of two Fibonacci targets in the 705-708 range. The 705 level is 610 points above the low trade price of 95 for GOOG the day after its IPO in 2004. The 708 level is 377 points above the 331 low established in March of 2006.
BIDU blew right past the top of its second box and will probably continue up at least to the top of its third box at 373 and eventually higher than that.
From carl futia
Tuesday 10-9-2007
9:00 AM
The pre-market is going crazy in NAZ, but I expect IXIC goes side ways. The DOW catches up. So do this today:
AA earning after closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Buy 20 TRA jan 35 calls - MOS earning was good. Didn't buy the calls, bought stocks instead.
Buy 10 CAT jan 85 calls.
10:30 AM
Market is definitely on the turning point, I just don't know how low it will go. It might just touch the surface. The overall sentiment is high. Watch vix closely. The Dow might jump.
5:00 PM
As it was expected around 2:30 pm, the DOW jumped. The reason of the jump was the Fed meeting minutes. It is clearly stated that Fed wants to cut the rate. So the game is still on. The dollar will continously weak, and the commodities and oil and metals will be up, so are China stocks. I think that we were on the right track.
Before this, there were 2 segments under pressure, oil and metals. Look into those stocks.
The pre-market is going crazy in NAZ, but I expect IXIC goes side ways. The DOW catches up. So do this today:
AA earning after closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Buy 20 TRA jan 35 calls - MOS earning was good. Didn't buy the calls, bought stocks instead.
Buy 10 CAT jan 85 calls.
10:30 AM
Market is definitely on the turning point, I just don't know how low it will go. It might just touch the surface. The overall sentiment is high. Watch vix closely. The Dow might jump.
5:00 PM
As it was expected around 2:30 pm, the DOW jumped. The reason of the jump was the Fed meeting minutes. It is clearly stated that Fed wants to cut the rate. So the game is still on. The dollar will continously weak, and the commodities and oil and metals will be up, so are China stocks. I think that we were on the right track.
Before this, there were 2 segments under pressure, oil and metals. Look into those stocks.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Monday 10-8-2007
9:15 AM
The indices in pre-market are off a little bit. The nervousness of market is not that. My nervousness is that China market. The market is getting close to its peak. What if it crashes, and what's the reaction of the world market. Be very caution here!!!
So follow this weekend's plan for today:
1. Unload all options positions today.
2. Set trailing stop for all Chinese stocks.
11:00 AM
The market down a little bit. The breath is not good. Just a few leaders are going up. It should go to consolidation mode soon. Personally, slow down, and take a breath. As it is still a bull market, I still hold long positions.
Obviously the market is going down. For the next leg up, make sure you are getting calls in Jan 08. Play safe here.
The TNH is a very tricky as it is in a very thin volume. It goes up and down too quickly, and too volatile. I have to quit it. The NAZ volume is very heavy comparing with holiday (today is Columbia's day) volume, the bond market is closed. I expect tomorrow's downturn.
1:30 PM
Although the market is losing its direction right now, it shoud be clear that the trend is down.
9:00 PM
Earning play:
AA tomorrow at closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Get in 20 TRA jan 35 calls.
I expect the market consolidate one more day tomorrow.
The indices in pre-market are off a little bit. The nervousness of market is not that. My nervousness is that China market. The market is getting close to its peak. What if it crashes, and what's the reaction of the world market. Be very caution here!!!
So follow this weekend's plan for today:
1. Unload all options positions today.
2. Set trailing stop for all Chinese stocks.
11:00 AM
The market down a little bit. The breath is not good. Just a few leaders are going up. It should go to consolidation mode soon. Personally, slow down, and take a breath. As it is still a bull market, I still hold long positions.
Obviously the market is going down. For the next leg up, make sure you are getting calls in Jan 08. Play safe here.
The TNH is a very tricky as it is in a very thin volume. It goes up and down too quickly, and too volatile. I have to quit it. The NAZ volume is very heavy comparing with holiday (today is Columbia's day) volume, the bond market is closed. I expect tomorrow's downturn.
1:30 PM
Although the market is losing its direction right now, it shoud be clear that the trend is down.
9:00 PM
Earning play:
AA tomorrow at closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Get in 20 TRA jan 35 calls.
I expect the market consolidate one more day tomorrow.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Investment Pitfalls and Jackpots
Investment Pitfalls in this environment where dollar falls with commodities prices going up:
1. Cash
2. Bonds
3. Large cap non-international stocks
4. Defensive groups: cosmetics, food, retails stores, airlines, autos, chemicals
Jackpots:
1. Gold and precious metals
2. Oil and oil services companies
3. Commercial real estate
4. Chindia
1. Cash
2. Bonds
3. Large cap non-international stocks
4. Defensive groups: cosmetics, food, retails stores, airlines, autos, chemicals
Jackpots:
1. Gold and precious metals
2. Oil and oil services companies
3. Commercial real estate
4. Chindia
Saturday, October 6, 2007
10-06-2007 Weekend
1. There is an article on LDK in Barron this weekend, it reported accounting problem. So SELL LDK. Set stop on all Chinese Stocks.
2. Sell all QQQQ, AAPL, and 1/2 GOOG calls. Seeking re-entry of all of them.
3. Watch AA, earning after close on Tuesday, don't expect a good earning anyway.
3. Watch GE, earning on Friday before opening, watch the l-9 call options.
4. Watch BNI's call - earning on 10/23/07, and if there is any chance, get 10 of them.
4. GOOG earning 10-18-2007 after close; AAPL earning 10-22-2007 after close.
5. Oil related: Buy 100 of DWSN in renshan2 on Monday. Watch NXY and TTI, TTI is leaving from its bottom island.
2. Sell all QQQQ, AAPL, and 1/2 GOOG calls. Seeking re-entry of all of them.
3. Watch AA, earning after close on Tuesday, don't expect a good earning anyway.
3. Watch GE, earning on Friday before opening, watch the l-9 call options.
4. Watch BNI's call - earning on 10/23/07, and if there is any chance, get 10 of them.
4. GOOG earning 10-18-2007 after close; AAPL earning 10-22-2007 after close.
5. Oil related: Buy 100 of DWSN in renshan2 on Monday. Watch NXY and TTI, TTI is leaving from its bottom island.
Friday, October 5, 2007
中国股市
10-5-2007
中国股市上证5600-5800是近期的顶，已经前进了70-75%。很可能有800-900点的修正， 预计4800-5000是下一个入场区；之后，预计，中国股市上证的下一个顶是8000。
9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。
8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。 我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。
中国股市上证5600-5800是近期的顶，已经前进了70-75%。很可能有800-900点的修正， 预计4800-5000是下一个入场区；之后，预计，中国股市上证的下一个顶是8000。
9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。
8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。 我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。
Friday 10-05-2007
7:00 AM
I was in training for a whole day yesterday. No way to access online. I had to put a couple of GOOG call buy orders by automatic trade, although the entry point is definitely not good. Basically, I was in active buying yesterday.
Although the after hour trade yesterday was very gloom. The all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The last 3 days are a typical 3 wave correction if looking in 15-minute chart. The pre-market this morning is up. The major thing in this week is the unemployment report at 8:30 am. I am kinda having some ideas of how the street playing with this event. BTW, the job report is the most important report for the market. For this whole week, the market activities are all around this report. The market had setup an uptrend on Monday, then started a 3-day minor correction. Today, market will do an uptrend again, which should last for a few days.
9:30 AM
You can tell INTC has problem. Seeking to exit it soon. (I have sold it at noon, but still holding the losing call options)
4:45 PM
What a day! The indices are actually not moving very big. But QQQQ is moving great. Around 1:00 pm, I have noticed that the option with higher beta doesn't move as fast as lower betas, so I shift Apple calls from high beta to low beta. I expect this rally continues on Moday.
Home work, read a book on options trade with more details.
I was in training for a whole day yesterday. No way to access online. I had to put a couple of GOOG call buy orders by automatic trade, although the entry point is definitely not good. Basically, I was in active buying yesterday.
Although the after hour trade yesterday was very gloom. The all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The last 3 days are a typical 3 wave correction if looking in 15-minute chart. The pre-market this morning is up. The major thing in this week is the unemployment report at 8:30 am. I am kinda having some ideas of how the street playing with this event. BTW, the job report is the most important report for the market. For this whole week, the market activities are all around this report. The market had setup an uptrend on Monday, then started a 3-day minor correction. Today, market will do an uptrend again, which should last for a few days.
9:30 AM
You can tell INTC has problem. Seeking to exit it soon. (I have sold it at noon, but still holding the losing call options)
4:45 PM
What a day! The indices are actually not moving very big. But QQQQ is moving great. Around 1:00 pm, I have noticed that the option with higher beta doesn't move as fast as lower betas, so I shift Apple calls from high beta to low beta. I expect this rally continues on Moday.
Home work, read a book on options trade with more details.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总
ZT from 风生水起(股票专坛):在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总：
◎ 门户网站类◎
ASIA 亚信科技控股有限公司
TOMO Tom.com
SINA Sina.com
SOHU sohu.com
CHINA China.com
◎游戏类◎
SNDA 盛大互动娱乐
NTES 网易
NCTY 9城
WZEN Webzen公司(中国概念)
◎短信增值服务◎
LTON 掌上灵通
HRAY HURRAY HOLDING CO LTD,华友世纪
KONG Kongzhong, 空中网
◎通信◎
UTSI UTstarcom
CNTF 德信无线
CHA 中国电信
CNC 网通
CHU 联通
CHL 中国移动通信
GRRF 国人通讯
TSTC 东方信联
◎客户服务网站◎
CTRP 携程
LONG E龙
JRJC 金融界
JOBS 51jobs.com
BIDU 百度
FMCN 分众传媒
APYM Asia Payment Systems
HMIN 如家连锁酒店
JOBS 51JOB－前程无忧
XFML 新华财经媒体
EFUT 富基软件
◎生物科技◎
SVA Sinovac BiotechBBC 博迪森农业肥料
YHGG 亚盛
AOB 东方生物科技
ADY American Dairy
CKGT 康太生物科技
AXJ 沈阳生化
AXM Pharma Inc
CMED 中国医药
TCM 同济堂制药
SSRX 三生制药
SCR 先声药业
SYUT 圣元国际
◎ 能源◎
YZC 兖州煤矿
SHI 上海石化
JCC 吉林石化
PTR 中石油
SNP 中石化
HNP 华能
CEO 中国海洋石油总公司
CESV China Energy Saving
STP 无锡尚德
YGE 天威英利
CSIQ 阿特斯太阳能
JASO 晶澳太阳能
TSL 常州天合
SOLF 林洋新能
TSL 天合光能
CSUN 中电光伏
LDK 江西赛维
◎运输◎
ZNH 南方航空
CEA 东方航空
GSH 广深铁路
HIHO Highway控股有限公司
◎其他◎
ACH 中国铝业股份有限公司
I*** INTAC国际股份有限公司
LFC 中国人寿股份有限公司
NINE 九城关贸－NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HLDGS
NTE 南太电子
SMI 中芯国际
VIMC 中星微
SVA 北京科兴 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
JST 金盘国际股份有限公司 Jinpan International Ltd
TBV 天狮国际
NWD New Dragon Asia Corp. Food industry
CYD 玉柴机器
DSWL Deswell Industries
CHDX 美中互利公司
CBA 华晨中国汽车控股有限公司
COGO 科通集团
ASTT ASAT Holdings
CBAK 比克电池
CTDC 中国科技
ACTS 珠海炬力集成
EDU 新东方
PACT 太平洋商业网络－电信增值业务提供商
BBC 杨凌博迪森
MR 迈瑞医疗
ATV 橡果国际
YTEC 宇信易诚
SPRD 展讯通信
SOLF 江苏林洋
SEED 奥瑞金种业
CSIQ 江苏阿特斯
HRBN 泰富电气
CSUN 中电电气
FFHL 富维薄膜
CPSL 中国精密钢铁
CAAS China Automotive Systems
XING 侨兴环球
QXM 侨兴移动
SORL 瑞立
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Inc
◎ 门户网站类◎
ASIA 亚信科技控股有限公司
TOMO Tom.com
SINA Sina.com
SOHU sohu.com
CHINA China.com
◎游戏类◎
SNDA 盛大互动娱乐
NTES 网易
NCTY 9城
WZEN Webzen公司(中国概念)
◎短信增值服务◎
LTON 掌上灵通
HRAY HURRAY HOLDING CO LTD,华友世纪
KONG Kongzhong, 空中网
◎通信◎
UTSI UTstarcom
CNTF 德信无线
CHA 中国电信
CNC 网通
CHU 联通
CHL 中国移动通信
GRRF 国人通讯
TSTC 东方信联
◎客户服务网站◎
CTRP 携程
LONG E龙
JRJC 金融界
JOBS 51jobs.com
BIDU 百度
FMCN 分众传媒
APYM Asia Payment Systems
HMIN 如家连锁酒店
JOBS 51JOB－前程无忧
XFML 新华财经媒体
EFUT 富基软件
◎生物科技◎
SVA Sinovac BiotechBBC 博迪森农业肥料
YHGG 亚盛
AOB 东方生物科技
ADY American Dairy
CKGT 康太生物科技
AXJ 沈阳生化
AXM Pharma Inc
CMED 中国医药
TCM 同济堂制药
SSRX 三生制药
SCR 先声药业
SYUT 圣元国际
◎ 能源◎
YZC 兖州煤矿
SHI 上海石化
JCC 吉林石化
PTR 中石油
SNP 中石化
HNP 华能
CEO 中国海洋石油总公司
CESV China Energy Saving
STP 无锡尚德
YGE 天威英利
CSIQ 阿特斯太阳能
JASO 晶澳太阳能
TSL 常州天合
SOLF 林洋新能
TSL 天合光能
CSUN 中电光伏
LDK 江西赛维
◎运输◎
ZNH 南方航空
CEA 东方航空
GSH 广深铁路
HIHO Highway控股有限公司
◎其他◎
ACH 中国铝业股份有限公司
I*** INTAC国际股份有限公司
LFC 中国人寿股份有限公司
NINE 九城关贸－NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HLDGS
NTE 南太电子
SMI 中芯国际
VIMC 中星微
SVA 北京科兴 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
JST 金盘国际股份有限公司 Jinpan International Ltd
TBV 天狮国际
NWD New Dragon Asia Corp. Food industry
CYD 玉柴机器
DSWL Deswell Industries
CHDX 美中互利公司
CBA 华晨中国汽车控股有限公司
COGO 科通集团
ASTT ASAT Holdings
CBAK 比克电池
CTDC 中国科技
ACTS 珠海炬力集成
EDU 新东方
PACT 太平洋商业网络－电信增值业务提供商
BBC 杨凌博迪森
MR 迈瑞医疗
ATV 橡果国际
YTEC 宇信易诚
SPRD 展讯通信
SOLF 江苏林洋
SEED 奥瑞金种业
CSIQ 江苏阿特斯
HRBN 泰富电气
CSUN 中电电气
FFHL 富维薄膜
CPSL 中国精密钢铁
CAAS China Automotive Systems
XING 侨兴环球
QXM 侨兴移动
SORL 瑞立
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Inc
Wednesday 10-03-2007
9:00 AM
Today is the prefect day for adding positions: The pre-market is down. Yesterday's market internal is very strong.
1. Add GLD 200 as planned;
2. Buy 400 shares of PWRD, who is in 3D gaming play in renshan2735;
3. Too late for selling MPEL is down pre-market, just hold;
4. Looking for load up in renshan2 with some momentum play.
11:00 AM
I know that I am getting better, at least I have been riding with the market trend. The market is decisively going up from here. 2 good days of consolidation. Stay long.
By large, I think I still have some psychic mental blocks when the indices making lows, and don't have the motivation or energy to act. I knew I was not fear or scared at all. But it was kind of lack of energy. Basically, I should buy at the market low.
Another observation: when in the minor correction or consolidation, the 1st day is the day people were just out from the bull, so people are still very bullish. The buys are flood in at the open, and the market shows very strong resistance. In 2nd day, some weak hands start being shocked out. So the sells should be much fierce than the 1st day. In the late of the 2nd trading session, the buys re-surge, and push the market up to the trend.
3:00 PM
Home work: how to identify and deal with correction, need to find a system to deal with it. During 2-2:30 pm, I bottom-fished a few stocks, but the timing was still way off.
Strategy:
1. Again, based on TAs, although it is hard to do when at work;
2. Buy dip on dollar average;
Today is the prefect day for adding positions: The pre-market is down. Yesterday's market internal is very strong.
1. Add GLD 200 as planned;
2. Buy 400 shares of PWRD, who is in 3D gaming play in renshan2735;
3. Too late for selling MPEL is down pre-market, just hold;
4. Looking for load up in renshan2 with some momentum play.
11:00 AM
I know that I am getting better, at least I have been riding with the market trend. The market is decisively going up from here. 2 good days of consolidation. Stay long.
By large, I think I still have some psychic mental blocks when the indices making lows, and don't have the motivation or energy to act. I knew I was not fear or scared at all. But it was kind of lack of energy. Basically, I should buy at the market low.
Another observation: when in the minor correction or consolidation, the 1st day is the day people were just out from the bull, so people are still very bullish. The buys are flood in at the open, and the market shows very strong resistance. In 2nd day, some weak hands start being shocked out. So the sells should be much fierce than the 1st day. In the late of the 2nd trading session, the buys re-surge, and push the market up to the trend.
3:00 PM
Home work: how to identify and deal with correction, need to find a system to deal with it. During 2-2:30 pm, I bottom-fished a few stocks, but the timing was still way off.
Strategy:
1. Again, based on TAs, although it is hard to do when at work;
2. Buy dip on dollar average;
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
关于中概
关于中概：现在的中概分为价值和玩弄：
1，10元以下股：KONG LTON HRAY ，就价值ER而言，现在的估价都源源高了100%。但由于其2周前古价已经接近现金直+3G所以可以有上升的空间。本月目标10元；SVA，量好的抬头，如同曾经的JRJC 。一旦过10元，可以满仓进入；ACTS，CNTF 都和3G有关，股价现在都低估。
2，IPO的股，EJ又会想HMIN EDU到40去；RCH会去12
3，10元以上股：
1）游戏：SNDA 其在35~37间连续7天交易上200万，已经建立仓位，等待消息拉升，放心那好，千万不要听捣乱的，他对AAPL RIMM GOOG 中概股没有发言权，如同放屁；秋月还可以：NTES ，PWRD，NCTY都是大盘中概股，这2周都是10元一下，60元以上的中概股在玩。所以那好了，下一波就是他们了，因为他们都到历史高位，和KONG LTON等历史底位不同；
2）门户：SINA SOHU NTES，都没涨，但2周都已经去过历史高位，现在在储备动能，你去SINA看一下，全食大公司的广告。本月SINA 60；SOHU 45 NTES 22
3）广告FMCN，旅游CTRP，教育EDU和上面分析一致。在等待：FMCN 70，CTRP 60，EDU 70
4，兰筹股：CHL SNP HNP PTR CEO LFC ，最好买股票，中期蚩尤3~6月。其股价已经很高，但会隔天2~5%涨幅。缩小和A股的差距。
As of right now. I like SSRX, CTDC, SVA, EJ, FMCN (jan 45c), PWRD (entry point), CTRP, EDU, LFC
1. Get PWRD, and FMCN(c)
1，10元以下股：KONG LTON HRAY ，就价值ER而言，现在的估价都源源高了100%。但由于其2周前古价已经接近现金直+3G所以可以有上升的空间。本月目标10元；SVA，量好的抬头，如同曾经的JRJC 。一旦过10元，可以满仓进入；ACTS，CNTF 都和3G有关，股价现在都低估。
2，IPO的股，EJ又会想HMIN EDU到40去；RCH会去12
3，10元以上股：
1）游戏：SNDA 其在35~37间连续7天交易上200万，已经建立仓位，等待消息拉升，放心那好，千万不要听捣乱的，他对AAPL RIMM GOOG 中概股没有发言权，如同放屁；秋月还可以：NTES ，PWRD，NCTY都是大盘中概股，这2周都是10元一下，60元以上的中概股在玩。所以那好了，下一波就是他们了，因为他们都到历史高位，和KONG LTON等历史底位不同；
2）门户：SINA SOHU NTES，都没涨，但2周都已经去过历史高位，现在在储备动能，你去SINA看一下，全食大公司的广告。本月SINA 60；SOHU 45 NTES 22
3）广告FMCN，旅游CTRP，教育EDU和上面分析一致。在等待：FMCN 70，CTRP 60，EDU 70
4，兰筹股：CHL SNP HNP PTR CEO LFC ，最好买股票，中期蚩尤3~6月。其股价已经很高，但会隔天2~5%涨幅。缩小和A股的差距。
As of right now. I like SSRX, CTDC, SVA, EJ, FMCN (jan 45c), PWRD (entry point), CTRP, EDU, LFC
1. Get PWRD, and FMCN(c)
Tuesday 10-2-2007
8:45 AM
The yield curve is getting steeper, which is good for financial companies, particularly, for mortgage companies. The market had a great run yesterday, and today there might be a pause. But I expect it to close higher.
10:45 AM
Market is still resilient. The volume is very heavy but the internal breath is very health. Up advances are large than declines. Hold on.
Seeking entry point for QQQQ.
2:10 PM
First time see the crazy stocks, bidu and lvs. Unfortunately, I have unloaded around 1:30 pm today. Anyway, the stock has a long up leg.
8:00 PM
The market is getting crazy. It is the time that everybody can make money in the market. I think it should last at least 3 months.
Tomorrow plan/action:
1. Sell MPEL at open.
The yield curve is getting steeper, which is good for financial companies, particularly, for mortgage companies. The market had a great run yesterday, and today there might be a pause. But I expect it to close higher.
10:45 AM
Market is still resilient. The volume is very heavy but the internal breath is very health. Up advances are large than declines. Hold on.
Seeking entry point for QQQQ.
2:10 PM
First time see the crazy stocks, bidu and lvs. Unfortunately, I have unloaded around 1:30 pm today. Anyway, the stock has a long up leg.
8:00 PM
The market is getting crazy. It is the time that everybody can make money in the market. I think it should last at least 3 months.
Tomorrow plan/action:
1. Sell MPEL at open.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Monday 10-1-2007
8:50 AM
The market is very resilient. The world market is up this morning. And US market had some bad news from financials such as Citibank and UBS. But I believe the worst is over already, and the market is going up. Dow 14000 will be broken easily.
Watch FNM closely.
12:00 PM
Wow, wow! All major indices are up 1%. Hang on tough.
4:25 PM
Smile! I just don't believe so many people still can't believe this up movement is for real. Just look at the volume of today. There is just not that much. This leads me to believe that the market will move up much much higher. Hold on the long positions.
Today, the financial, home builders, and real estate related stocks are bottoming up. If any weakness in those segments, buy stocks (not options) for a long term run.
7:45 PM
Tomorrow plan
1. Mainly looking for exiting calls.
The market is very resilient. The world market is up this morning. And US market had some bad news from financials such as Citibank and UBS. But I believe the worst is over already, and the market is going up. Dow 14000 will be broken easily.
Watch FNM closely.
12:00 PM
Wow, wow! All major indices are up 1%. Hang on tough.
4:25 PM
Smile! I just don't believe so many people still can't believe this up movement is for real. Just look at the volume of today. There is just not that much. This leads me to believe that the market will move up much much higher. Hold on the long positions.
Today, the financial, home builders, and real estate related stocks are bottoming up. If any weakness in those segments, buy stocks (not options) for a long term run.
7:45 PM
Tomorrow plan
1. Mainly looking for exiting calls.
- unload QQQQ (calls) at $1.9
- unload AAPL calls at $11
2. Watch sigm closely, this is a video semi play with good ranking in IBD
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