Investment Rules:


守不败之地,攻可赢之城。耐心等待好时机。选得好,不如时机选得巧。时间价位若没到,不会涨与跳。横盘不交易,自会有时机。买要等跳水,卖要等冲高。买阴不买阳,卖阳不卖阴。下跌时候要耐心,不到惊恐不买进。下跌反弹三次前,耐心等待站一边。头次反弹又回头,退出观望不发愁。下跌途中三次弹,谨慎伺机可建仓。众人惊恐我进场,人人欣喜我观望。惊恐跌过头,进场等着把钱收。疯狂涨过头,赶快了结闲悠悠。低位放量上攻可搭车,高位放量下跌赶紧撤。高位横盘又冲高,抓紧机会赶紧抛。低位横盘又新低,全仓进入好时机。低档横盘不怕套,高档横盘准备逃。天价不可买, 地价不要卖。天量不天亮,天气会变凉。情况若异常,赶紧先离场。

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Weekend 09-29/30-2007

2 noticeable development:
1. US market still hold up well. In the handle forming stage of cup and handle shape, it is ready to break up any time;
2. Chinese ADRs have been performing incredibly well. The back driven news is that China is opening the foreign investment channel so that people in China can invest overseas. Opening HK market to mainland people means it opens the whole world to mainland people. This is a very positive news.


Date/High within 30 days/Low on rate cut date/Difference/Percentage
23-Dec-91/3297/2934/363/0.123722
15-Oct-98/9042/7885/1157/0.146734
18-Sep-07*/15215/13403/1812/0.135*
as of today/13924/13403/521/0.039

* Projection for the movement in 30 days.

Next week focus play:
China play SSRX and DSX. Hold all China stocks. Trade calls.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Friday 09-28-2007

8:45 AM
Yesterday's restless open market orders were totally murdered. But I am patient. The mistake has been made and don't make another mistake.

The pre-market is little bit lower, but I am not worry about it at all. The PCI report was just out, and there is no inflation. Equity should go up.

Looking for long GLD and MOO. Seeking an entry point. But no hurry!

11:00 AM
Now I am eating the results of yesterday's calls. The market is in consolidation mode.
Against any buying rules are suicidal. Although I still hanging here, I think this is a painful lesson which has to keep in mind. NEVER trade without refering the rules.

1:00 PM
Luckily, it is the bull market. The market should be turning around very quick.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Thursday 9-27-2007

9:15 AM
It is one of the days that are hard to deal with. The world market is up big, and here, the pre-market is up big.

11:00 AM
I would be a big pig/or a raging bull (if it is a better word) getting slaught rather than be smart. I think the market is very resiliant. I have bought a few calls at the market open prices which are the highest prices so far. DAMN!

1:00 PM
If you blink, you lose. I hate the market doing this, it penalizes if you are weak.

8:30 PM
Tonight China play:
SMI (buy at open)
CNTF (just left the bottom island)

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Wednesday 9-26-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is up. Again, the market is not overbought yet. Although some leaders are overbought, but it shouldn't prevent making any advance. Yesterday was a good turnaround day. I expect all indices increase over 1% today as the confirmation day for last Tuesday's rally.

11:00 AM
Market is up. But tech leaders are down some profit taken. It should be a buy.

12:00 PM
Just an observation, on the employment minium wage post, 2007 - $5.85, 2008 - $6.55, 2009- $7.25. We should see 2 things: 1. Dollar value direction; 2. Slope of that direction. The dollar will be down for about 25% for the coming 2 years. Wow!

1:00 PM
This morning, bottom finished GOOG and BIDU's calls. Have just got in BNI (railroad) for a long term play. Warren Buffett bought 6000 shares of it at $79.97. This is not really the main reason. The main reason is for dollar crisis play. Ref last weekend comments. I believe that the tech leaders will resume their up marching, but the indices might be down a little tomorrow, if the market keeps current status quo.

2:30 PM
Apparantly, it can't. The indices are fading. The DOW and SP haven't broken up yet. QQQQ is a little bit of ahead of itself. Again, no short, just buy in dip. Get ready for 2% minor correction from here.

But I do believe that there will be a quick and brief chance for the longs to get out before it starts dropping. The correction time-frame is about 1 week.

9:45 PM
30% in cash, 12.5% in mutual fund for long hual, 50% long stocks.

  • Interesting China stocks: long, hmin;
  • TIE (the ceo bought stocks on 9/10), CG, CSCO calls.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Tuesday 9-25-2007

9:10 AM
Definitely a down day.

10:40 AM
Just off the meeting, and the market is up. Wow! The market is in a very strong bull mode. Hold on everything. I think Carl might be right this time. He believes that QQQQ should go straight up to $52.5 without any stops.

2:00 PM
The market hold on very well with many bad news today. Consumer confidence slippery, the August housing existing houses sale news, Lennar's very bad earning, Target and Lowe's lower sales, BP's warning on its earning.

This market will go up much higher. Stay away from the market a little bit. Let the market do its things. Another observation is that whenever there is a housing bad news, other sectors goes higher. That means people are buying into the market and dumping their housing investments.

I am very glad today as last night, I have predicted that PIR and BBBY will move lower. Today, PIR is down 11% and BBBY is down 4.5%. It surely increases my self confidence.

10:30 PM
China and Tech stocks had a very good day. The trend looks to be up further. China stocks are very volatile. Be very careful. Major play for tomorrow should be profit taken.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Monday 9-24-2007

Market is healthy and going higher. The major indices are not overbought yet. So no worry for today.

10:20 AM
Market is fine. The indices are down a little bit but will go up. It is a classic up day with a little profit taken btw 10 - 10:30 am. SNDA is up very well.

12:00 PM
Tech leaders are running crazy. I missed all of them. They are in the ultimate run. Wait for the pull back, then long and hold 100 shares of AAPL in 2735 account.

3:45 PM
The market is down, but the internal is not very weak. I expect it goes down further tomorrow, the buy might come in Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. Then resume the uptrend.

The TNH is very volital. Got in for the trend line broken up signal, but is down 2.5% for the first day. Ouch! The volume is light and pull back is in order, I will hold it for a while. BUT, the lesson is that buy into trend line breaks is a late game.

Do the buying entry scan is necessary. Meanwhile, need to update a better stock candidates list, which should include Russell 1000, BRIC ADRs

10:30 PM
Paper trade: Short retails BBBY - buy oct 35 put; PIR - buy mar 5 put

Sunday, September 23, 2007

09-23-2007 Weekend

James Turk: "The coming collapse of the dollar and how to profit from it"

(US Gold Reserver)*(Gold's Market Price)/M3 = Fear Index.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1144015820.php

http://www.goldmoney.com/

How other assets will fare in a currency crisis:

1. Cash: Down with the dollar;

2. US bonds: The worst possible place to be;

3. Foreign bonds: Early winner, late loser;

4. Real Estate: Not this time;
a. Prices are sky-high;
b. Home equity at a record low. 70s, Americans owned 70% of their homes, and owned the bank 30% of their home value
c. Mortgage rates are at lowest level;

5. US Stocks: a falling dollar equals rising exports;
a. US companies such as gold miners and resource companies, commodity producers and farmers. The only thing holding farmers back was a shortage of railcars to transport their products to major ports. So look for a boom in demand for new transportation capacity and soaring railroad profits. Same applies to copper, zinc, etc. The best bet is an "inelastic supply curve" which means they are unable to quickly ramp up production of whatever they are selling.
b. US manufacturers benefit from falling dollars are companies in BUFGX and DGAGX mutual funds
c. But all bets are off when the crisis goes global.

6. Debt: To leverage or not, that is the question.

7. Short Selling: a. Importers;b. Financials; c. Home builders

Saturday, September 22, 2007

9-22-2007 Weekend

That last week was a very good week. After Fed cut, ppl are buying. The strong sectors are commodities, oil, metal, and high tech. In general, S&P is up 5% this year so far. For a pre-election year, the average is up 15%. So we have 10% to go UP.

Here is my view of the whole market:
From here ($INDU at 13820), it will go up to 14000 ish. Then consolidate for a while. The next leg up is 14600. This time, the chance of down is very small. Any dip is a good buy.

My plan for next week:
****Again, don't SHORT, not worth it.

Strong segment: Ocean dry cargo(DSX), US Fertilizer(TRA), US Railroad(BNI), US Metal - Ores and natural resource (CTB), HighTech, and China.

Weak segment: Finance, Importers, Home builders

Operations:

  • Long what you have
  • Long BNI 1 Jan L-09 call
  • Long Farmers call
  • Focus calls trade on AAPL, GOOG, and QQQQ.

renshan2735:
1. Keep holding intc, nvda - 25%
1. Keep holding hov - 25% (looking for opp to unload)
1. Long trade SNDA calls - 2%
2. Long trade AAPL calls - 20%
2. Find a biotech and go long - 10%

2. Long 100 shares of TNH at open on Monday (just broke out and tested the upper trend line)
2. Seeking Call 10 TRA oct 25.

2. Seeking Call 1 Leap-09 BNI Jan 60

2. Seeking Long CTB stock (look at monthly chart, wow!!!)

2. Long 100 shares of NM at open on Monday (just broke out and wait to confirm retesting the upper trend line, and then add more positions)

renshan2:
1. Keep holding AAPL - 15%
1. Keep holding DSX and TASR - 35%
1. Keep holding INTC calls - 2%
1. Keep holding Fidelity Securities Fund Leveraged Company Stock Fund - FLVCX - 10%
1. Long trade SNDA calls - 2%
2. Long trade GOOG calls - 25%
2. Seeking Call SNP

r2y:
1. Keep TASR - 45%
1. Keep DODFX - 30%
1. Keep PRMTX - 25%
1. Long trade DEll calls - 1%
2. Call 20 DSX oct 25 at market open, looking entry for another 20 calls. (Show buying entry signal, ACTION now)
- Inject $5000.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Friday 09-21-2007

7:20 AM
Didn't have time follow up with the market after 2:25 pm yesterday. But overall, it held up well, though down a fraction. All my buying orders were filled. Basically, I am holding AAPL, BIDU, QQQQ, and DELL calls.

The pre-market is up this morning. From TA, I see no resistance for QQQQ to make new high. Watch out its breaking up. If it does, QQQQ should go up to at least 55 in the coming 2 months. The bull is very strong. GS had a good quarter even with subprime crisis. ORCL had a very good quarter which should lift QQQQ. "China" word is very everywhere. CHINAs, OIL, and QQQQ.

Today's Watch/Action:
1. SINA: It breaks out from a nice cup and handle formation, and is giving 15 minutes entry signal. Add small position at open for long term hold.
2. DSX: It is giving 5 minutes buying signal. Getting some at open for mid term hold.
3. BIDU is showing overbought in daily chart. But for a period, the stock went up strong with overbought signal along. So far, the minutes chart RSI shows fine. Watch it closely.

8:00 AM
After study, No SINA, it has past its entry point at 36 already.
Add SNDA oct 40 calls whenever it is dip to $.20 (20+20+20). At 33, SNDA is a very good buy, stop at 31. Target 48.

9:00 AM
Strong call INTC oct 27.5 (50+50).

10:30 AM
Market opened up strong and held up well. I have sold BIDU's calls, but showed with a little bit of greed. Again, if the signal shows, sell with market order.

Didn't get chances to load up SNDA's call. It went up like crazy. Added calls of INTC.

The market is healthy. I will evaluate around 2:30 pm.

1:50 PM
I am out of all short term calls. The market is done. Traders are going home and having good time. No Options trades in Friday afternoon. Watch carefully how the options get expired.

4:00 PM
Finally got in some SNDA oct calls. Meanwhile, sold its stocks.

Again, Market can't go straight. I think next week we should see some weakness at very beginning.

Next week focus on ADRs and International companies, pure US companies will have little bit hard time here.

Happy weekend!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Thursday 09-20-2007

6:54 AM
Due to the triple options expiration day tomorrow. The today's market should be calm and quiet. Trading in a narrow range. The pre-market is down, but I still think it should hold up well.

Last night, CMTL had a good earning report. Normally, it drops. But it was higher last night and pre-market. From its chart, it should go up after that and the gap won't get filled for a long time. This time, I think the good news has been leaked. Yesterday it had double average volume. With this hot market, and the stock has some priced in. I believe this gap will get filled very soon unless today's volume close to 2M. So basically towards SELL (tight up the trailing stop by 5 minutes). Again, keep the fund available for CMTL, once it pulls back to its lower bollinger band, double the dose with calls.

Action for today:
No more new position, just trade (buy low and sell high on long side).
Day Trade Apple calls.
Day Trade HOV calls.

8:40 AM
Cover the short position in r2y asap. Luckily it won't lose too much.

12:00 PM
Market is slow, and trades in a narrow range. Covered QQQQ with 2 cents lose. Opened up BIDU put and DELL call. No biggie. Overall, the NAS volume is on average, which signs a healthy market. It is just doing some consolidation right now. Don't hold short position overnight.

2:00 PM
I have confirmly strengthed my belief that the market will go higher. Today, the market is making a candlestick bullish pattern. If it can keep till close, add calls once TAs tells you. Focus on AAPL, GOOG, and BIDU.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Wednesday 9-19-2007

The world market is on fire. US market should continue. (pre-market)

It does open higher, and has been trading for 1 hour now. It is still going higher. Based on Gap open 30 minutes statistics, I believe it will go higher today.

Bought 200 NVDA at open, and added 300 more after it pulled back a little bit.

We had a first time sell off in the last hour. I regard that as a distribution. Market should still be going higher. From here, only seeking for exiting points. Around 11 am, I have sold all the options (calls), half position of HOV, and half position of CMTL. (noon)

The market indices are forming H&S formation, which signs a top. (noon)

The market went back with a decent close. The trend is still healthy. No SHORTs here.

Action Today:
NVDA: Buy 200 at open and add more once it breaks up of 36.

Action tomorrow:
Long 30 Dell oct calls by at open.
Trade Apple calls.
Day Trade HOV stocks.

Bigger Plan:
1. Long QQQQ calls (Oct 51 and 52 Calls) Total 100 on 60 minutes signal.
2. Long +HOVJB (Oct 10 call) 50 and +HOVJV (Oct 12.5 call) 50 Or others depends on the time value (the less the better) on 60 minutes signal.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Tuesday 09-18-2007

It is a big day. I have a plan to play it in neutral. Basically, trade it in the both sides after 2:15 pm.

It is 1:50 pm. Unfortunately, I won't be able to make it since I will have a meeting at week. This time, the market has been up, though it is leveled a little bit. Most likely it will be up and down right after the announcement. But the direction should be continously up. So my guess is that the market will be down first, then up.

The fed cut the interest rate by 50 points, and lower the discount rate again. So, it went up 300 points. there is no down turn at all. What a day!

I loaded up buying some orders but due to the work and interruption, I didn't acomplish as what I planned to. In addition, Ameritrade broker accounts were frozen. Next time, just use the market order.

Play Defence this week. Confirmed before any actions.
The fed will cut rate at 2:15 pm on Tuesday. It is widely expecting the market will sell off. But history indicates right after the fed fund cut, in 3-6 months, the market will up average 10%. So who knows what will happen on that day. My strategy is as follows,
Before the fed announcement
1. Sell calls whenever there is any chance with profit ;
After fed announcement on Tuesday and Wednesday
2. Buy 10 contracts of Jan 2008 calls of QQQQ and SPY on Tuesday and Wednesday on any dip in yuedongr2y.
3. Trade HOV options between $10 - 13 in renshan2735.
4. Trade Oct calls for AAPL, GOOG, AMZN in the range.

Actions tomorrow plan:
1. Tight up trailing stop on HOV;
2. Unload options;
3. Buy on dip;

Monday, September 17, 2007

Monday 09-17-2007

The European's are selling, which continued last Friday's subprime crisis. As the US didn't get affected last Friday, or let's say it has passed this stage. The pre-market was down, but has pulled back up a little bit. Aapl and Goog are strong. They are up (a little though). (pre-market)

The market is down with very light volume. I guess this week will be a very wild week with wild swing of both sides. Psychologically Longs are definitely not buying, and it is the Shorts world today. The problem is tomorrow, will the Long fight back? (noon).

If the market can recoup most of the lost today, it is very Bullish. Now, it is 2:20 pm, I don't see any selling. (Afternoon)

Friday, September 14, 2007

Friday 09-14-2007

Today, there is an important retail sale report. But major indices are down big at pre-market, due to UK subprime problem. The strategy for today is to watch. I don't expect the market drop too much as the 50 MA has been tested twice a few days ago.

Yesterday, GM/steel and some retails are strong. Today, we are having retail sale report. I guess the retail sales number should be good. It was leaked out early, I guess. Now, the game starts again. Let's see what the market reaction to this retail sales number. (pre-market)

The retails sales number was not good. The market gap down at the open, but coming back nicely, which shows a very bullish sign. I should expect some big uptrend soon. (noon)

Certainly not today, but all major indices closed in positive. I am still bullish. (after market)

Happy Weekend!

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Thursday 9-13-2007

The market is going up. Yesterday operation proved being wrong. Cover the QQQQ short ASAP. Then wait the S&P passes 1474 and QQQQ passes 49.4, long AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN. (pre-market)

The market does what I was expected, but my operation didn't generate profits so far. The reason was I acted too early. Again, TAs are good friends. Still need to follow up with the trends. During the time, the DOW and S&P was up strong, but NAZ lagged. I believe the NAZ will catch up. Ref the action items, need to study hard on this pattern (daily based). It shows very strong upwards. (11:00 am)

The market drafted in the late afternoon trading. Will I categorize it as a distrubition day?Definitely not. Dow and S&P broke up. But NAZ didn't. Watch those broke up line carefully. My take on the market is going up. The last 5 minutes trades was strong upwards. I think that NAZ was strong (above 50 MA already), now DOW and SP are above 50 MA. (4:00 pm)

The market is definitely in the break out mode, but we just don't know when it breaks.

Action:
1. Does This pattern hint a huge leg up?
%K crosses or about to crosses D%;
%K and %D are between 30-70 level;
MACD and signal lines are almost parallel around 0 line.
2. DSX announced 10M shares sell, watch out and buy from the dip;
3. Is GOOG about to break up?

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Books to read

1.《我怎样在股票市场赚了两百万》(How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market),作者Nicholas(* * * *),
  2.《交易为生》(Trading for a Living),作者Dr. Alexander Elder, John Wiley 出版(1993) (Reading on 9-12-07)
  3.《日本蜡烛图技术》(Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques),作者Steve Nison, Prentice Hall 出版(1991年5月) (Done on 8-15-2007)
  4.《怎样在股票市场赚钱》(How to Make Money in Stocks),作者William J.O' Neill McGraw-Hill 出版(1994年9月) (Done on 1-1-2000)
  5.《自律的交易者》(The Disciplined Trader),作者Mark Douglas,Prentice Hall 出版(1990年6月)
  6.《胜利者拿走全部》(Winner Take All),作者 William Gallacher,Irwin出版(1997年3月)
  7.《股票作手回忆录》(Reminiscences of a Stack Operator),作者 Edwin Lefever, Market Place Books 出版 (Done on 9-10-2007)
  8.《电子化的即日交易者》(The Electronic Day Trader),作者 Marc Freidfertig 和George West,NcGraw--Hill出版(1998年)
  9.《怎样开始电子化的即日交易》(How to Get Started in Electronic Day Trading),作者David Nassar, McGraw--Hill出版(1998年11月)
  10.《在线即日交易者的策略》(Strategies for the On-line Day Trader),作者 Femando Gonzalez和William Rhee, McGraw-Hi11出版(1999年7月)

Wednesday 09-12-2007

Major indices are down in the pre-market. But who knows after an hour, what will happen. My personal take is that the market will flat or upwards, as downwards doesn't make sense at this moment. The fed is cutting the interest rate. According to Lesse Livemore's theory, the market goes with the least resistant way. So to me, I believe the flat is the least resistant way. So overall, trade in a range till Fed's meeting next Tuesday. (8: 40 am)

Follow up with AAPL, it got Cramers bump yesterday and USB's upgrade today. It jump start at 135.99, and went up to 137.40 in the first 30 minutes. It has a good sign. But for a safety perpurse, I have sold 5 contracts at 8.4 first. I am still holding 5 contracts. Watch out the general market carefully, if it drops like rock, I should sell. (10:00 am)

As the market progresses, it is true that the market is flat. But there is a segment showing strong sign. The BIO and Pharm. Study it tonight. (11:00 am)

The market went up a little bit, then went flat again. I believe that if it closes flat, it is a distribution day, and I get out the long and short the market. Meanwhile, if it closes up higher, I should hold the positions. (2:30 pm)

Turn bearish in the late trade of the day, shorted QQQQ at 49.11.

Action for today:
1. Sell AAPL sep 130 calls.
2. Study BIO and Pharm tonight.
3. No buy, focus on sell.
4. Buy after Fed meeting.

Action for tomorrow:
1. Cover the QQQQ short.
2. Study BIO and Pharm
3. Day trade on AAPL (get in 10 oct calls), AMZN call and GOOG call.
4. SPX 1474 50 MA is very important.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Tuesday 09-11-2007

Follow the plan from yesterday, and trade into Long once the market goes lower. (pre-market)

Now the market has been running for an hour, the gap 30 minute trade rule is true. Now it is making now high. During 10 - 10:30, I did a short term trade on apple sep 130 call. It was a good trade before still the entry point was little bit early. Now, let me look into the lunch weakness and entry points. Remember just do a day trade. (10:40 am)

The market still went up higher at close. BUT there was a sell off, then buying up right before the closing. I don't know what it means, we should see. Again, BE very CAREFUL. (9:00 pm)

Plan for tomorrow:
no direction right now. wait for tomorrow.

Monday, September 10, 2007

Monday 09-10-2007

The market is ready to roll. I think that last Friday's lower is the mid-term low. The market has tested the low and now going up higher.

One thing wants to point out that on last Friday, GS stock was strong. It didn't down with the rest. This morning, BSC is up too. (comments on 9:00 am)

The previous comments was written before the market. It was totally contradicted to my Friday's comment. Now it provides that my Friday's comment was right. The market is not turning yet. I am seeing it going down. (comments on 11:30 am)

At noon, it turned and heading higher. But it closed at flat. At 1:15 pm, I entered UA at $61.87. It is a mid-term hold. So I will do a 60-minute trade.

I unloaded Apple Sep 130 call, following the 30-minute TAs. The reason I used 30-minute is that it is option and a short term trade. (commented on 5:00 pm)

Today Summary and tomrrow plan:
From VIX and Tick, it confirms that the market will still go down a little bit. At least it will be volatile. Sell UA first thing in the morning, as it has already reached selling point from 30 minutes chart.

Friday, September 7, 2007

Friday 09-07-2007

The unemployment data was off the guide, people were looking for 15,000 nonfarm jobs created, but the report showed -4,000. The market sold off. The major indices are off 2%. Yesterday the market was up modestily, but $TRAN was off. It should give some hint.

After the market close, the TAs indicators should market continuous weak, and I expect the market is going down for a short term.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Thursday 09-06-2007

After a brief down day, the market is ready to roll. A few tech stocks such as CSCO and IBM were making new highs. I don't expect the market to drop too much at this point. It might go higher than re-test the 50 MA line.

Weekly Stocks Pulse Check And Upcoming Week Plan

NO SHORT in this market

Current Holdings:

Intc: forming the cup and handler, it is in the handler stage. Up target 29, HOLD
Tasr: Suport at 14.95. Target 29.
Aapl: HOLD 100 shares. It is up.
Cmtl: Support at 49. Target 60.
Hov: Bottom at 10. Break the upper range at 13.85. Now it should be in the range $17 - 13.5.

SNDA: Support @ 32.6. Target 41.

NVDA: Support @32. Target 38. The entry was a bit of emotional, although the TAs looked okay. But the trend line is not. Be careful on this one.

1. For new position, use small lot to start, make sure it breaks and is confirmed (retested), then add additional.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Tuesday 09-05-2007

As expected, the market is heading south at pre-open. Watch it carefully, play short today.

Actually, I was just sitting there and watched. The market did go down with light volumes, which prevent me from doing the short. I think that markets will make a top first, then goes down. Just wait for the clear sign for action.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Monday 9-4-2007 - About Market

After the labor day, the market still went up. It was not so strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, buyers coming and pushed the indices higher. Now, QQQQ is close to all time high. The current trend looks like getting out of stream from TA's view. Get prepared for some down turn in the browing.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Monday 09-03-2007 - QQQQ 5 minutes trading

QQQQ trade Chart setup:
1. 5-minutes Candlestick chart
2. Bollinger Bands (Close, 20, 2)
3. EMA (Close, 5/10/50/100/200, 0)
4. Parabolic SAR (0.02,0.02,0.2)
5. Stochastic (14,3,3)
6. MACD (Close, 12,26,9)
7. MFI(14)
8. RSI(14)
9. StochRSI(14)
10.William's %R

BUY Signal:

Diff in of MACD greater than the previous, and both of MACD and Signal lines are negative; And
%K crosses above 20 line, OR, %K above %D almost parallel up approaching 20 line; And
Both RSI and MFI in less than 55 level, and in uptrend; And
Either RSI crosses above 30 or MFI crosses above 35 in near pervious sessions; And
Williams %R crosses above -90 in previous session; And not over -10; And
stochRSI crosses above 0.20 in previous sessions; And not over .90; And
The short signal almost touches the price bar.

SELL Signal:
(
Show bearish reversal in candlestick; And
K% and D% are above 80 level, crosses over preferred; And
MACD crosses signal line preferred (short signal); And
Both RSI and MFI in greater than 65 level; And
stochRSI above .90; And
Williams %R above -10;
) Or Parabolic SAR support level almost touches the price bar.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

Preparing for the open

1. Based on TA find the market direction

  • Use the weekly TAs indicators to find market general direction,

2. For an uptrend, buy strongest/market leaders/indices in the strongest segment stocks when it is weak, but hasn't broken major trend.

  • Entry: a. Setup support level first. b. Scan the stock with up down. Scan TAS, from the daily, 60 minutes, 30 munites, 15 minutes, 10 minutes, 5 minutes. The more buying signals are better. c. Then Use 1 minute or 5 minutes TA for entry. Note: When entry, wait for a bullish candlestick pattern.
  • Holding: Keep up the support level accordingly. For a mid term hold, use daily TAs. For a short-term, use short time frame TAs.
  • Exit: a. Exit by touching the support level. b. By trading strategy (such as range trade).

3. For a downtrend, sell weakest/market laggers/indices in the weakest segment stocks with a broken trend based on 5-minutes TAs at open.

  • Entry: Scan the stock with up down. Scan TAs, from the daily, 60 minutes, 30 munites, 15 minutes, 10 minutes, 5 minutes. The more selling signals are better. Then use 1 minute or 5 minutes TA for entry, wait for a bearish candlestick pattern.
  • Holding: Keep up the support level accordingly. For a mid term hold, use daily TAs. For a short-term, use short time frame TAs.
  • Exit: a. Exit by touching the support level. b. By trading strategy (such as range trade).

________________________________________

1. Do the research

Rank the stocks based on TA indicators

  • MACD and Stochastic Oscillator

Each stock has its own set of histogram values, a statistics data should be very valuable for the research.

buy signal: day3 (MACD - signal) greater than day2 (MACD - signal), and those numbers should be both negative.

buy signal: based on daily chart, lv = 20, day 1 %K and %D both less than lv and %K less than %D; day2 both %K and %D less than lv; day3 %K greater than %D and %D less than lv.

  • RSI and MFI

buy signal: in day 1 or day2, RSI less than 20 or MFI less than 30, day 3,

  • Williams %R
  • ADX
  • Parabolic SAR (for major indices and leading stocks only)
  • ROC and Momentum

    2. Manage risk

    3. Market major indicators and other market indicators

    • Majors: S&P, Nasq, DOW, NYSE composite
    • Minors: ref strategy desk

    4. Set Alerts and Triggers