Wednesday 12-26-2007

11:20 PM
The market is signing a topping. It opened lower, and keeps low so far. I will do a quick s&p put in the afternoon if the market keeps this way.

Friday 12-21-2007

7:30 Am
The future is high. I believel that the gap in sp around 1430 needs filled before it is can go higher. So unload SP call positions at open. RIMM was a wrong bet, which sucks. Anyway, QQQQ is ready for new high. Since the SP needs to fill the down gap, there is no hurry to jump in QQQQ right now. Just do some day trade for practice.

4:30 PM
The market had a big rally, up more than 200 points. I have a very rough trading history since 11/12/07. Also all the option trade losing money. Here is my takes on this mistake:
1. Don't rely on experts advices;
2. Only trust numbers from the market.

Just like there is a gap needs to be filled below on SP. But as long as the stochastic doesn't tell you so, it won't get filled. The TAs will show when the gap will be filled. So from now on, I won't listen to any expert advice. I think the market data is already enough for me to make decisions.

Thursday 12-20-2007

9:00 AM
The current stocks market direction is very clear. Short-term up, and mid-term down. Timing is everything, so follow up with the TAs to act properly.

Wednesday 12-19-2007

10:00 AM
The market is heading up to 1800 on SP (hopefully). The mid-term is C leg down. So be sure to unload the long position and add short positions on the next leg (3rd) down.

9:00 PM
The trend is down, so mainly look for down trend stocks. Don't long.

Tuesday 12-18-2007

6:00 PM
The market jumped open, then sold off. Then it recoved most of it. It is a very hard to trade. I know it might be the temp bottom.

中国牛市看好四大板块

四个关注重点：

城市供水和污水处理行业、

太阳能和风能行业、

交通行业

农业行业。

- 罗杰斯认为这四个行业的上市公司是投资者应该重点关注的板块(此消息来自《今日美国》)

Monday 12-17-2007

8:20 AM
The future is negative carrying on with Friday's big loss. Dow down 178 points on Friday. The C leg down is confirmed. Today will finish the 1st leg in this C leg, 2nd leg up is browing. The 2nd leg target is at 1505 in SP.

Friday 12-14-2007

9:45 AM
The market gap down huge, over 100 points. Now it is making its way to fill the gap. I won't expect the gap gets filled. Basically, today is a huge down day. But I have close the put position. I will add a small put position if I see any weakness. Otherwise, I will close all the short position if the market can't break new low.

Thursday 12-13-2007

10:30 AM
The market opened lower and then managed to close the gap in a very weak force. The mid term (in days) trend is down. So I keep all the short positions and have sold all the put positions. I will add short positions if there is any bounce.

1:40 PM
The market drifting below support level. I will add more short positions only when it is higher. I guess the market will drift/flat to close. Tomorrow, if gap up, add more short potisions. If it open flat, wait close to short more.

Wednesday 12-12-2007

9:00 AM
The market went down 300 points yesterday, which marks the A-B-C conclusion (hopefully). So basically today will be the confirmation day. Once it confirms, Nov low will be retested.

10:15 AM
The market opened incredible strong, which is a very bad sign for bull. If MMs think the market will go high, they will use this great opportunity to load up with lower price. Apparently, they didn't do it this way, they did the opposite way. That means they want to unload they holdings.

Tuesday 12-11-2007

8:00 AM
The market just can't stop going up. Today is the Fed decision day. Obviously, I am on the other side of the market. The market dismisses, ignores and discounts all the bad news. I felt frustrated. The TAs side tells that the short-term top is here or close. So I just be patient.

Monday 12-10-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is up a little. I should take a sideline position since the bond yield is at 4.12% in last closing session, which means, that it positioned for .25 fed funds rate cut. Current fed funds rate is 4.5%. The last session's high for Dow was 13774. Watch it closely, see if it can be broken. The truth worry for the bear is not up side, it is really the down side. If the market extends its rally from here, it is not a good sign. But if it can hold 1480-1490 level in SP, it is a good chance that the market will go up for the Xmas rally.

Friday 12-07-2007

10:45 AM
It is Friday, the market has been up huge for the whole week. So I expect it will be a little bit of profit taken today. Next Tuesday will be Fed decision meeting. If there is .25 point cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will sell off. If there is .50 cut with .50 discount rate cut, market will do a weak rally.

Housing Histgram

Thursday 12-6-2007

5:00 PM
The market has rebounced to 1507 from 1406 with in 10 days. it is a huge and quick rebounce. To me, it is too quick and too fast. Tomorrow will be a down day for sure. If it open high, short stocks at the open.

Starting next week, use options for day trade.

Monday 12-03-2007

1:00 PM
The market opened lower and regain all the lost, but can't stay there. So I think the market is heading lower today. All the leaders are not making gains.

Friday 11-30-2007

7:15 AM
The pre-market is up huge again, as Fed will cut rate on 12/11 meeting. Since this time, the news is out earlier than usual, "buy on the rumor, and sell on news." So this is my thought:
1. For a mid-term period, SP 1490-1500 is up resistance level, I expect the market to touch this zone, and go back to test the low 1420-1400.
2. For the short-term, since I was on the wrong side, basically, I have lost all the qualifications. So I have to stay away from current market, and just wait.
3. This market is going much faster than I expect on each direction.

Here are some important data:
1. SP 1490 50%, 1510 61.8% of this re-bounce up level
2. QQQQ 51.83 50%, 52.59 61.8% of this re-bounce up level

I won't take any action before those numbers get violated: SP 1490 and QQQQ 52.59. If the market carries its way too much, I will buy SP put in my zecco account on spy's upper bb level, which is 149.6 for hourly based trade. Again, short-term, very short-term.

A good trader is "看空但是不做空"

11:00 AM
I did buy put on SPY at 9:45 AM - 2 contract, very small position. BTW, I believe RIMM is forming the diamond reverse, once it drops below 115-110, it will go to 81.

Thursday 11-29-2007

1:30 PM
The market FA is all bearish. Not too much bullish sentiment out there. The economy growth is going slow. So this is the baseline. The issues is how the fed will do.

Technically, the market had a very good 2 days run, gained more than 500 points. All the major trends are still pointing down. Again, I just hold my short positions. I will add more short positions once the TA shows sign.

Wednesday 11-28-2007

9:10 AM
The pre-market went up huge. I expect another big up today. But it is still a bounce, not trend reverse. Since I am not available for the day. I still just hold all my short positions. Some are in a deep water. But I am not worry.

1:15 PM
The market is up on the 2nd day (yesterday, it was up 215, today is 265 right now.) But I still don't believe the bottom has been made, as I haven't seen the panic selling. I am holding what I have and just put my head into the sand for a while.

I think the short-term trend is up. After those 2 days huge up, it should turn soft and consolidation for a while. I will close Dec put and take loss while there is any chance, and keep all the other short positions.

Tuesday 11-27-2007

8:00 AM
The pre-market is up. Don't get sucked in. The trend is definitely down from both daily and weekly TA. The re-bounce should be very weak. If long, you have to give your enough time to monitor, otherwise, stay short that you don't have to monitor too closely.

9:20 AM
MOS is in a perfect h&s formation. Short a small portion right here around $64 with stop $65.5. Once it breaks the neckline around $58. Add short position.

1:00 PM
All indices are up around 1.5%. Taking almost all the loss back from yesterday. That means that at current level, bulls and bears are really neck to neck. The market leaders are taking rest, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM are not advancing too much.

8:30 PM
I am still very bearish. The well street is getting ready for the recession. GS upgraded the strong segments, big cap biotech, defense, and tabecho; others belong to downgrades.

Monday 11-26-2007

8:00 AM
Last Friday after Thanksgiving, market went up with positive rally. Today, the pre-market is up a little. It tramed much larger earlier gain. So the trend is to open higher and go lower.

Meanwhile, it is officially a bear market. As the Dow made a recent low on 11/23/2007 before Thanksgiving. So make sure all position is mainly in short side. Long position can be only for short-term trade.

11:00 AM
The trend is right. The market is going down. The financial is weak. So I will buy some SKF (ultra short financial XLF)

4:15 PM
The market is on the way down. Major indices broke on all previous low.

Bought 100 shares of SKF before lunch. And at the close, bot 5 contacts of rimm put.

Weekend 11-24-2007

上周坐游船去了加热比海，在古巴的附近。陆续贴些照片。

1。 http://fishdb.sinica.edu.tw/2001new/importpic.asp?id=D05 鱼在一起。

2。在墨西哥，当地人在游行。

Weekend 11-17-2007

The Friday's was OE day, and the market did a huge "W" formation. So for the short-term, I think NAZ will go up to form the left shoulder. Overall, the market is in a very bad shape. It will go down huge once the formation is done.

Trade down trend from now on.

Next week, I am going to cruise. So no worry for this moment.

Thursday 11-15-2007

8:00 AM
The future is off a little bit. I checked the oversold and overbought ratio during this week, it is not extreme. So the next leg down is most likely. The PUT/CALL ratio of Tuesday's big run up was around 1.2. Yesterday, the market went down in last 20 minutes, PUT/CALL ratio was 0.9.

12:00 PM
It is flat as expected. It should be flat tomorrow as well. Next week, not too much activities too, as people are going to holidays.

3:00 PM
The market is dropping over 133 points, adding to yesterday's 70 points, it is more than 200 point which is more than 62% retrace of Tuesday's huge rally, which is not a good sign. If it can't pull back a little bit, tomorrow won't be good.

9:45 PM
1. The PUT/CALL ratio is 1.4.
2. The Down volume is huge, almost close to the high in 2 months.

Wednesday 11-14-2007

8:00 AM
The future is flat with a little bit down. I don't like this action at all. It will be a very weak sign if the market opens low. So be very caution here. Personally, I am still very bearish.

8:30 AM
If the market can pass 1490 in SP, and 13400 in DOW at close, I will be totally missing the opportunity. This is a TGH in my trading experiences. If it happens, don't jump in too quickly. Stay away for a while and play paper trade instead. Remember money is everything in the market, but you have to do it right.

1:30 PM
I expect the market keeps at this little up/flat today, and tomorrow, it goes up a few points or flat for the week. Then starting next week, it goes down for the last leg of this correction.

5:30 PM
The market tried to pass 2700 of NAZ, 1490 of SP, but failed. It is down 0.5% for the day.
1. PUT/CALL ratio 0.9

Tuesday 11-13-2007

8:30 AM
The pre-market is up more than 1%. The beaten down stocks are up around 4%.

Since yesterday, I am in an extreme bearish mode. I researched the chart pattern, and noticed that current chart pattern matches 1987 oct crash. So my mind set expects the market going that direction. For the week pre crash, the general market went down on Monday, and up 2-3% Tuesday; gap with huge down more than 4% on Wednesday; then falling from there. And crashed on Monday.

Today, I will just watch. At the close, if there is any weakness, put a small short position.

6:30 PM
The summary of the market:
1. DOW up 2.46%, NAZ up 3.46%, and SP up 2.91% with volume on average of previous 3 days.
2. PUT/CALL ratio is growing from 1.13 -> 1.27

China Stocks

这段时间股市会很不好。安全第一！一定不要再进货啦，要缝高出货。也可以考虑-不记成本地抛空所有股票。切记！切记!

Monday 11-12-2007

8:00 AM
The future market is little change. That is good news. Shanghai market tested the 5031 low, and closed flat. HSI and Jap market were down 3-4%. But European market is mixed. People were talking about the official bear market on the weekend. The sentiment of the market was very bearish over the weekend. Basically, I was very scared and not easy on the weekend, based on the current position.

9:00 AM
The pre-market is position. So today's plan is to hold all the current positions. Looking for refill AAPL calls which was cut loss last Friday.

5:30 PM
The market is in extreme. I had to close all long positions and took huge loss. The market is very bearish. Although the indices are not down too much, the high flyers are down huge, from 5-15%.

Weekend 11-10-2007

The last Friday was brutal. The market gapped down, and stayed down in a narrow trade range, and then in the last 30 minutes, it sold off.

I have to cut loss and sold 40 AAPL calls with $15000 loss. This weekend, the CNBC said there would be doozy of rally coming, and some experts are optimistic, I am scared though. That means the market is bottoming. So get ready to reload the position again. But this will be just a short term trade. I must get in and get out fast. Again, rumor is rumor. So still the TA is the best friend.

Monday's plan is as follows,
1. if the market gaps down at open, day trade AAPL.
2. if the market gaps up or flat at open, hold.

Seeking AAPL, RIM, and GOOG exit point during next week when one of them reaches:
DOW, 13400; SPX 1489; IXIC 2720; QQQQ, 53

Friday 11-9-2007

9:30 AM
The pre-market is down a lot. 1%. Let's see how it goes.

Thursday 11-08-2007

3:30 PM
The market is amazing, the NAZ went down 100 points, and now it is getting its feet back. It is really over done.

The pre-market was higher in the waking of Asia closed very low, the Europe mixed waiting. The market drafting around at the open level during the first 2 hours. Before lunch time, it went down, and made it lowest point around 1:00 PM. After that, the market recovered. The significant improvement started around 3:10 PM.

I loaded up with AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG calls. Haha! Very good move overall.

Wednesday 11-07-2007

8:30 AM
The pre-market was down more than 1% but is better than earlier. That means the futures are getting improvements. More fear, the better. I believe the market will go much much higher from now on. Again, any dip is a good buy.

Yesterday, I missed some energy-other, such as solar and gas. Now it is the time to add some.

1. Get 200 shares of MEE (coal and gas company)
2. Get in 100 shares of STP (solar play)
3. Get out 1/2 position of PWR (industrial infrastructral. earning tomorrow morning)

I did load up the MEE, but unfortunately, I didn't load up STP.

6:00 PM
The afternoon market was ugly. Indices broke all the major support lines. I have sold almost all the positions. And put some small short positions on high flyers RIMM, ISRG, and DRYS.

Remember the down turn will be short. So just take some profit and not be too greedy.

Tuesday 11-06-2007

8:20 AM
As expected, the pre-market is up. The normal market situation is that the first week of each month is bear. After that, it gets better. So I expect the general trend goes better.

If it is not the bottom, definitely, it is near the bottom. So this time, hold tight, less trade. Buy any dip if there is still cash left.

Today's play,
1. Load MOO with monthly $5K allowance
2. GOOG is on fire. But unfortunately, I missed it.
3. HOV just came out the preliminary earning report, it is better than other home builders.

10:20 AM
The HOLX was a huge surprise. The earning was very good, but the stock went down 8%. My 30 calls got hammered. This is the lesson: use small amount to play the ER with options.

11:10 AM
(TGH- The greatest humilidate) Very sick of HOV, I hate to do, but sold the calls and took $11K loss. Don't know what to do with the 2500 shares of stocks yet. I guess I will hold it for a while.

Monday 11-05-2007

9:50 AM
The pre-market was down huge with the whole world market. It opened low around 1% down, went lower, but didn't break yesterday's (last Friday's) low; then moved up a little. If it doesn't break last session's low, or close around today's open, it is a good sign.

The Chinese stocks get hit huge this time. I believe the bottom is near, so I won't trade. Stay neutral right now. Here are some reasons:
1. Financial and real estate- have been beaten down, and can't go any lower;
2. Tech - strong, and can't be beaten down;
3. The rests are drafting with the market.
4. China/HK market down was the policy delay, it should be one time. So I am not worry too much.

So, I don't see a big down turn from here.

11:30 AM
The market is still drafting in negative. It is a definitely a pig market. So I am taking so profits on RIMM and APPL, and back to 25% in cash.

11:45 AM
The QQQQ is forming an unique three river bullish pattern, which is a bullish reserve pattern. It needs to be confirmed by the new high (in previous 3 days). So hold on the bullits a little bit, I expect another drafting down in the afternoon. If it closes strong, jump in.

3:30 PM
The running up is fairly strong, I loaded up AAPL and RIMM back.

Weekend 11-04-2007

There are many Bears out there. In DQ, Qiuzhihaoyue and Daoluan turn bearish as well. The market is in critical point. I would rather be careful here. So looking for any strength to exit the long, mainly calls with profit, and build up some put positions on indices. Anyway, prefer neutral setup.

For the very short-term, I still believe the market is bullish, as last Friday closed strong. So I still believe the tech, commodities, and foreign markets are bull. The US internal is bear.

Thursday 11-01-2007

9:00 AM
The future is down a lot. I am happy that the market is back to normalcy. Buy dip on any weakness. Yesterday, I missed the AAPL calls, so hopefully, I can get it back. Also, get some GOOG and RIMM's calls. China is a risk play, be careful.

10:30 AM
The market is down huge, average 1.5% down so far. The legend A-B-C wave of correction is true, the C leg is developing, which means, the market will be down further. Don't be hero here right now. Hold on all your positions, and buy dip when it is developed.

Wednesday 10-31-2007

8:45 AM
MA just announced a good earning, the stock in pre-market is up big, 7.8%. Prepare for unloading the call at the open. Fed decision annoucement around 2:10 pm, I expect it will be a .25 cut, but I hope the cut is .5. IMO, the deficit is so huge with the foreign governments holding the bag, why no just make a deep cut, which benefits a. unload the burdons to them; b. save the credit cruch. Let's see.

There was an earth quack in SF last night.

10:30 AM
The market opened higher, and stayed high. I believe the .25 cut news will cause the market to drop a little bit, then rally back to upside. So I will not sell here since the momentum is strong. Buy in the dip. Load up calls on techs.

5:30 AM
The fed cut rate by .25. The market went down briefly and went up around 1%. From here, I believe the market will go higher.

Current main player will be still Chinese stocks and commodities related and high tech.
1. Add RIMM calls

Tuesday 07-30-2007

8:30 AM
The pre-market is down a little. But I don't see it is a big day today as Fed decision will be announced tomorrow. Today will be quiet.

I will hold all my positions through the day, and evaulate before closing today.

11:10 AM
The market is doing exactly the actions as the last time cut. Before the cust last time (9/18/2007), after 2 days running up, it went down a little bit. The next day, it went up from opening. Today, all the leading stocks are up. So I believe the market should go up from here. Again, re-evaluate before the closing, and see if there is any opportunities.

Monday 07-29-2007

11:00 AM
The pre-market was strong, but it faded the gap. Now it is in the trading range with little move. I expect the market goes this way for today. There might be a 2 ways for tomorrow. It jumps up, which a sign for sell; or it trades in the range which means the market wants to jump up after the Fed meeting.

I have added some positions such as RIMM, EBAY, BHP's calls. The PCU went up too much, so I have to skip. Most of Chinese Stocks went up high and trade lower, so I think it is better don't touch them right now.

Weekend 07-27-2007

The passing Friday had a good day, the market jumped on MSFT great earning news, and tech jumps with all segments except the semiconductor segment. The semi is pathetic anyway.

Next week, Fed will announcement the interest rate decision, and market is widely expecting 1/4 points cut. Actually, I believe the fed will do 1/2 points cut. If it is 1/4 points cut, I believe the market will sell off, and starts a second part of correction. So watch it closely.

But whatever, the real estate and financial segment should get a strong lift on the rate cut.

Looking to load up
1. CTRP stocks
2. Call PCU and EBAY (50 calls)

Thursday 10-25-2007

8:40 AM
The pre-market is going up. There are a few good earnings such as Motorola, Amgen, Big Phamies. I expect the 4Q breaks out from here.

The dollar will be down, and US has successfully persuade China to increase the Yuan value. Now, it should be the text book play that all the commodities, oil, railway, dry shipping, farmers, and high tech shine; financial and retails sink.

Today, I think the market should be still in consolidation mode and waiting for the fed rate decision. 50 base points are in the expectation now, which is good for the fed to do the double play, a. support the financial credit crush; b. devalue the dollar.

10:30 AM
As expected, the new (today) and existing (yesterday) housing sale numbers are very bad. The durable goods number is not good either. So the fed cut is for certain. The financial stocks and home builders got lifted.

Wednesday 10-24-2007

8:30 AM
The market went up close 1% yesterday. But I felt the run was very weak. There were just a few leading stocks breaking out. I believe it tried to test the water, the pull back is imminent; but don't expect a down-turn, the market is ready for a big up side. It is just doing some consolidation for a while. In other words, the MMs are short of stocks, yesterday's run was too quick and too sudden. So MMs are driving the after and pre-market down to collect some shares. So any dip is a good buy.

Again, it proves that NO Panic and No Greedy works.

3:00 PM
It proves that my estimate was with the market trend. The indices were down 2% (tech down 2.5% with heavy volume), but I have spotted that DOW's volume is very light. So I added AAPL position. Now, the market is recovering.

Tuesday 7-23-2007

8:30 AM
The pre-market is strong. The market comes back strong. I believe the excitement should give the market a good lift. Hold on your shares. Don't sell to0 early. But definitely will sell AAPL calls and stock. No greedy here as it has generated a decent profit.

Monday 10-21-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is a huge down turn. The world markets sold off. But I see the futures are moving back a little bit. So I think there might be a rebounce today and early tomorrow. Then the market will move down again.

Again, watch to exit some positions while the market rebounce.

7:00 PM
During the session, I unloaded YHOO calls, AMZN stock and calls and SPWR call, in which AMZN will report earning tomorrow after market, so I believe tomorrow AMZN will be down. Other calls are Nov, I am afraid of the down turn market will swipe out all the time-value. So I sold them.

The AAPL earning was great, the stock went up after the market. So tomorrow's QQQQ should be up huge. Watch out the fading. But don't play the short side, I believe the market should hold it at least for one day.

10-20-2007 Weekend

It was a very bad. The whole portfolio lost 50% gain. Here is the list of calls needs cut loss:
1. cnx
2. bhp
3. fmcn

I expect the market rebounce from here, then sell off. So unload the above calls first. If there is any strongness, sell other positions. Meanwhile, seeking weak financials to short.

Friday 10-19-2007

8:30 AM
The trading plan is to watch the positions I have added yesterday. And take profit if it fits the selling points (look at the daily chart).

The market is mixed this morning, I believe that the fed will cut rate again by the end of month, as the yield curve is telling the story. Today is the option expiration day, so it might be quiet day as the price has already settled by the actions last Friday and this Monday.

9:15 AM
CAT reported another missing earning, it is the 2nd time. So cut loss on its call at opening.

5:30 PM
Today is a huge down. DOW down 380 points. It is also expiration day. The market was a straight down.

For this moment, stay LONG and stay strong.
Long selected Tech
Short financials and retails

Thurday 10-18-2007

8:30 AM
There are 2 markets in this market. One is the bear and one is the bull. The bear is the financials, real estate, food, high oil price related. The bull is high tech, metal, oil related, and low dollar related. You have to understand how to play with them. Never short the bull, and never long the bear.

I have been made a couple of mistakes on longing the bear (HOV) and shorting the bull (RIMM). You have to clear it up RIGHT NOW.

The market is still in the down trend correction. Keep on the dry powders. I don't think in this overall bull market, the bear is fatter than the bull. So looking this correction as the bull buying dip opportunity.

10:00 PM
In the morning, I have loaded the stocks listed last night. The market closed mixed with tech strong, and DOW lagged a little.

About GOLD

The gold is in finishing 2nd wave around 750, and going to a correction, then coming up with a huge wave up to 900. Waiting for the entry point in 600s.

Wednesday 10-17-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is going up huge. No chase. Seeking to sell calls. Put some positions on 200 ANSS stocks in the later session.

Watch out the first 30 minutes. Absolute no long.

12:30 PM
The market is strong with high volume. I think that a good investor has to be a lonesome. I do believe that the trend is down and market is going lower. So I have shorted the QQQQ and RIMM, got out the CSCO calls. I will watch it closely, and if I am wrong, I will close the position quickly.

5:30 PM
The market turned around and finished up very strong. The NAS is much stronger than ever. I lost a few thousand on the shorting positions.

I believe that the market will go from here much higher. The short term correction is over.

Portfolio to be built:
1. SIGM is a entry point. Buy Jan 60 calls.
2. CIEN in entry point, buy Jan 50 calls
3. ITRI buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
4. FMCN Jan 60 call entry point
5. IVGN stock - medical generic
6. NDAQ stock entry point
7. PCP buy and hold - (good for sell covered calls)
8. RIMM jan 115 call entry point
9. BHP jan 90 call entry point
10. TRMB stock entry point
11. AMZN stock
12. BIDU jan 330 call
13. Watch GOOG

Tuesday 10-16-2007

6:00 AM
Market going south, short candidates:
FDX
COF
MA
CAL - one of the air just reported a good earning, so skip this one.

9:00 AM
The momentum tech is very strong, get out of Aapl put early. I believe the market will rebounce from today's low, which ends the A wave, and starts the B Wave.

10:25 AM
Today is not a good, although I have exited almost all the positions, but left the calls alone. I should have exited the calls too. Now, almost all my oct calls are worthless. It is a big lesson. If the market turns, you should get rid of everything even the losing positions.

1:30 PM
With a relatively low volume, the market is not done yet. It is still in the down trend.

7:40 PM
The intel and yahoo's earning are great. The future market is going up. I don't think it should carry the market up too much. So watch it closely, and unload calls if it fades.

Take a small position in AMZN, SIGM, NVDA, and TRMB stocks.

Monday 10-15-2007

8:30 AM
The futures are off a little bit. Keep in mind that it was coming from the raging bull of Friday's closing. I expect the market is in the side mode at least today.

11:30 AM
Actually, the market is a big sell off. Last Friday, I have exited almost all my positions, so I am in a good shape. I am thinking about to do a short-term short. But I am not in the mode, I will study it tonight. Elliot Wave explains today's action.

9:00 PM
The market down. I expect it goes down more.

Short candidates:
COF
MA
Nile

Weekend

Historically, 3rd week of OCT is very bad. Stay away. Let's see.

Using Elliott Wave theory, many stocks have finished their 1-2-3-4-5 wave, and now are in A-B-C down turn wave.

Stocks look into after this down turn trend finishes:
1. VLNC (green techs)
2. ISRG (medical devices)
3. ITRI (electricity grid)
4. HOT techs
5. ANSS (basic engineering software)
6. US dollar devaluation plays.

Friday 10-12-2007

9:20 AM
The pre-market is up as expected. That means that yesterday's sell off is merely a profit taken. But watch it closely, the key is that see if it can hold. I do expect some choppy trade today. If it holds well, strong buy on AMZN and DSX calls. Watch BIDU and GOOG closely as I expect more down. RIMM call is just too expensive, can't play this one.

VLCK can be a small play with a buyout candidate, if have a chance.

9:00 PM
Ironically, said No sell in yesterday's blog, but I sold almost all the holdings. It was a panic sell. I feared the sell off would re-occurred though knew the chance was very slim. It showed that there was lack of disciples. Anyway, now I am mostly in cash.

Next week will be the big earning week.

Thurday 10-11-2007

8:00 AM
The market is going too quick and too fast. Generally speaking, when the trend is formed, Carl is mostly right.

The pre-market is up a lot. It proves that yesterday's down reaction to BA and Chevy's strike was over reaction. I had the similarly feeling. It should be a good day.

I put a market order last night to expect the irrational on China FEED, this morning, it went up 15%. Interesting!

10:00 AM
Very heavy buying for the 1st half hours.

8:30 PM
In the afternoon around 2 pm, the market started selling. It ended with +100 to -100 swing. Closed at -64 in the DOW.

The sell off is totally off the guard, and I think it is not legit. Although it appears panic, more towards technical, no fundamental. So no panic here. As the matter of fact, I am buying like crazy. Tomorrow is the key, if it keeps the down trend, then a 3% correction is in play; if it gaps up, technically, it is a 1 down covering 3 up pattern, should be treated as a continous trend pattern.

Action for tomorrow:
Good stocks are on sale right now:
1. Watch, don't panic. If it needs to sell, only sell GLD, MOO, MPEL, All Tasrs. Again most likely, NO sell.
2. Watch BIDU and GOOG, they go as a pair. I expect GOOG to sink to 580s, and BIDU goes side way for a while. So just wait.
3. AAPL/RIMM/BIDU/GOOG/AMZN/VCLK
4. Safe play: Oil services XTO

Wednesday 10-10-2007

7:00 AM
The market is in a comfort zone.

1. Buy 20 GRMN oct 115 calls
2. Buy chnr

10:00 AM
It started with some sell pressure, also the volume is heavy. So I believe the market will go side way today. Bought both mentioned above, a little bit under water right now.

Short GOOG and Long BIDU

GOOG and BIDU are leading the market higher. You can see that Google has reached the top of its second box near the 618 level and normal action here would be a least a brief drop to 575 or so. I am revising my upside target at bit to the confluence of two Fibonacci targets in the 705-708 range. The 705 level is 610 points above the low trade price of 95 for GOOG the day after its IPO in 2004. The 708 level is 377 points above the 331 low established in March of 2006.

BIDU blew right past the top of its second box and will probably continue up at least to the top of its third box at 373 and eventually higher than that.

From carl futia

Tuesday 10-9-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is going crazy in NAZ, but I expect IXIC goes side ways. The DOW catches up. So do this today:
AA earning after closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Buy 20 TRA jan 35 calls - MOS earning was good. Didn't buy the calls, bought stocks instead.
Buy 10 CAT jan 85 calls.

10:30 AM
Market is definitely on the turning point, I just don't know how low it will go. It might just touch the surface. The overall sentiment is high. Watch vix closely. The Dow might jump.

5:00 PM
As it was expected around 2:30 pm, the DOW jumped. The reason of the jump was the Fed meeting minutes. It is clearly stated that Fed wants to cut the rate. So the game is still on. The dollar will continously weak, and the commodities and oil and metals will be up, so are China stocks. I think that we were on the right track.

Before this, there were 2 segments under pressure, oil and metals. Look into those stocks.

Monday 10-8-2007

9:15 AM
The indices in pre-market are off a little bit. The nervousness of market is not that. My nervousness is that China market. The market is getting close to its peak. What if it crashes, and what's the reaction of the world market. Be very caution here!!!

So follow this weekend's plan for today:
1. Unload all options positions today.
2. Set trailing stop for all Chinese stocks.

11:00 AM
The market down a little bit. The breath is not good. Just a few leaders are going up. It should go to consolidation mode soon. Personally, slow down, and take a breath. As it is still a bull market, I still hold long positions.

Obviously the market is going down. For the next leg up, make sure you are getting calls in Jan 08. Play safe here.

The TNH is a very tricky as it is in a very thin volume. It goes up and down too quickly, and too volatile. I have to quit it. The NAZ volume is very heavy comparing with holiday (today is Columbia's day) volume, the bond market is closed. I expect tomorrow's downturn.

1:30 PM
Although the market is losing its direction right now, it shoud be clear that the trend is down.

9:00 PM
Earning play:
AA tomorrow at closing - Buy 20 Oct 40 calls in zecco.
Get in 20 TRA jan 35 calls.
I expect the market consolidate one more day tomorrow.

Investment Pitfalls and Jackpots

Investment Pitfalls in this environment where dollar falls with commodities prices going up:
1. Cash
2. Bonds
3. Large cap non-international stocks
4. Defensive groups: cosmetics, food, retails stores, airlines, autos, chemicals

Jackpots:
1. Gold and precious metals
2. Oil and oil services companies
3. Commercial real estate
4. Chindia

10-06-2007 Weekend

1. There is an article on LDK in Barron this weekend, it reported accounting problem. So SELL LDK. Set stop on all Chinese Stocks.
2. Sell all QQQQ, AAPL, and 1/2 GOOG calls. Seeking re-entry of all of them.
3. Watch AA, earning after close on Tuesday, don't expect a good earning anyway.
3. Watch GE, earning on Friday before opening, watch the l-9 call options.
4. Watch BNI's call - earning on 10/23/07, and if there is any chance, get 10 of them.
4. GOOG earning 10-18-2007 after close; AAPL earning 10-22-2007 after close.
5. Oil related: Buy 100 of DWSN in renshan2 on Monday. Watch NXY and TTI, TTI is leaving from its bottom island.

中国股市

10-5-2007
中国股市上证5600-5800是近期的顶，已经前进了70-75%。很可能有800-900点的修正， 预计4800-5000是下一个入场区；之后，预计，中国股市上证的下一个顶是8000。

9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。

8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。 我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。

Friday 10-05-2007

7:00 AM
I was in training for a whole day yesterday. No way to access online. I had to put a couple of GOOG call buy orders by automatic trade, although the entry point is definitely not good. Basically, I was in active buying yesterday.

Although the after hour trade yesterday was very gloom. The all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The last 3 days are a typical 3 wave correction if looking in 15-minute chart. The pre-market this morning is up. The major thing in this week is the unemployment report at 8:30 am. I am kinda having some ideas of how the street playing with this event. BTW, the job report is the most important report for the market. For this whole week, the market activities are all around this report. The market had setup an uptrend on Monday, then started a 3-day minor correction. Today, market will do an uptrend again, which should last for a few days.

9:30 AM
You can tell INTC has problem. Seeking to exit it soon. (I have sold it at noon, but still holding the losing call options)

4:45 PM
What a day! The indices are actually not moving very big. But QQQQ is moving great. Around 1:00 pm, I have noticed that the option with higher beta doesn't move as fast as lower betas, so I shift Apple calls from high beta to low beta. I expect this rally continues on Moday.

Home work, read a book on options trade with more details.

在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总

ZT from 风生水起(股票专坛):在美国上市的中国公司名单汇总：
◎ 门户网站类◎
ASIA 亚信科技控股有限公司
TOMO Tom.com
SINA Sina.com
SOHU sohu.com
CHINA China.com
◎游戏类◎
SNDA 盛大互动娱乐
NTES 网易
NCTY 9城
WZEN Webzen公司(中国概念)
◎短信增值服务◎
LTON 掌上灵通
HRAY HURRAY HOLDING CO LTD,华友世纪
KONG Kongzhong, 空中网
◎通信◎
UTSI UTstarcom
CNTF 德信无线
CHA 中国电信
CNC 网通
CHU 联通
CHL 中国移动通信
GRRF 国人通讯
TSTC 东方信联
◎客户服务网站◎
CTRP 携程
LONG E龙
JRJC 金融界
JOBS 51jobs.com
BIDU 百度
FMCN 分众传媒
APYM Asia Payment Systems
HMIN 如家连锁酒店
JOBS 51JOB－前程无忧
XFML 新华财经媒体
EFUT 富基软件
◎生物科技◎
SVA Sinovac BiotechBBC 博迪森农业肥料
YHGG 亚盛
AOB 东方生物科技
ADY American Dairy
CKGT 康太生物科技
AXJ 沈阳生化
AXM Pharma Inc
CMED 中国医药
TCM 同济堂制药
SSRX 三生制药
SCR 先声药业
SYUT 圣元国际
◎ 能源◎
YZC 兖州煤矿
SHI 上海石化
JCC 吉林石化
PTR 中石油
SNP 中石化
HNP 华能
CEO 中国海洋石油总公司
CESV China Energy Saving
STP 无锡尚德
YGE 天威英利
CSIQ 阿特斯太阳能
JASO 晶澳太阳能
TSL 常州天合
SOLF 林洋新能
TSL 天合光能
CSUN 中电光伏
LDK 江西赛维
◎运输◎
ZNH 南方航空
CEA 东方航空
GSH 广深铁路
HIHO Highway控股有限公司
◎其他◎
ACH 中国铝业股份有限公司
I*** INTAC国际股份有限公司
LFC 中国人寿股份有限公司
NINE 九城关贸－NINETOWNS DIGITAL WORLD TRADE HLDGS
NTE 南太电子
SMI 中芯国际
VIMC 中星微
SVA 北京科兴 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
JST 金盘国际股份有限公司 Jinpan International Ltd
TBV 天狮国际
NWD New Dragon Asia Corp. Food industry
CYD 玉柴机器
DSWL Deswell Industries
CHDX 美中互利公司
CBA 华晨中国汽车控股有限公司
COGO 科通集团
ASTT ASAT Holdings
CBAK 比克电池
CTDC 中国科技
ACTS 珠海炬力集成
EDU 新东方
PACT 太平洋商业网络－电信增值业务提供商
BBC 杨凌博迪森
MR 迈瑞医疗
ATV 橡果国际
YTEC 宇信易诚
SPRD 展讯通信
SOLF 江苏林洋
SEED 奥瑞金种业
CSIQ 江苏阿特斯
HRBN 泰富电气
CSUN 中电电气
FFHL 富维薄膜
CPSL 中国精密钢铁
CAAS China Automotive Systems
XING 侨兴环球
QXM 侨兴移动
SORL 瑞立
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Inc

Wednesday 10-03-2007

9:00 AM
Today is the prefect day for adding positions: The pre-market is down. Yesterday's market internal is very strong.

1. Add GLD 200 as planned;
2. Buy 400 shares of PWRD, who is in 3D gaming play in renshan2735;
3. Too late for selling MPEL is down pre-market, just hold;
4. Looking for load up in renshan2 with some momentum play.

11:00 AM
I know that I am getting better, at least I have been riding with the market trend. The market is decisively going up from here. 2 good days of consolidation. Stay long.

By large, I think I still have some psychic mental blocks when the indices making lows, and don't have the motivation or energy to act. I knew I was not fear or scared at all. But it was kind of lack of energy. Basically, I should buy at the market low.

Another observation: when in the minor correction or consolidation, the 1st day is the day people were just out from the bull, so people are still very bullish. The buys are flood in at the open, and the market shows very strong resistance. In 2nd day, some weak hands start being shocked out. So the sells should be much fierce than the 1st day. In the late of the 2nd trading session, the buys re-surge, and push the market up to the trend.

3:00 PM
Home work: how to identify and deal with correction, need to find a system to deal with it. During 2-2:30 pm, I bottom-fished a few stocks, but the timing was still way off.

Strategy:
1. Again, based on TAs, although it is hard to do when at work;
2. Buy dip on dollar average;

关于中概

关于中概：现在的中概分为价值和玩弄：
1，10元以下股：KONG LTON HRAY ，就价值ER而言，现在的估价都源源高了100%。但由于其2周前古价已经接近现金直+3G所以可以有上升的空间。本月目标10元；SVA，量好的抬头，如同曾经的JRJC 。一旦过10元，可以满仓进入；ACTS，CNTF 都和3G有关，股价现在都低估。
2，IPO的股，EJ又会想HMIN EDU到40去；RCH会去12
3，10元以上股：
1）游戏：SNDA 其在35~37间连续7天交易上200万，已经建立仓位，等待消息拉升，放心那好，千万不要听捣乱的，他对AAPL RIMM GOOG 中概股没有发言权，如同放屁；秋月还可以：NTES ，PWRD，NCTY都是大盘中概股，这2周都是10元一下，60元以上的中概股在玩。所以那好了，下一波就是他们了，因为他们都到历史高位，和KONG LTON等历史底位不同；
2）门户：SINA SOHU NTES，都没涨，但2周都已经去过历史高位，现在在储备动能，你去SINA看一下，全食大公司的广告。本月SINA 60；SOHU 45 NTES 22
3）广告FMCN，旅游CTRP，教育EDU和上面分析一致。在等待：FMCN 70，CTRP 60，EDU 70
4，兰筹股：CHL SNP HNP PTR CEO LFC ，最好买股票，中期蚩尤3~6月。其股价已经很高，但会隔天2~5%涨幅。缩小和A股的差距。

As of right now. I like SSRX, CTDC, SVA, EJ, FMCN (jan 45c), PWRD (entry point), CTRP, EDU, LFC
1. Get PWRD, and FMCN(c)

Tuesday 10-2-2007

8:45 AM
The yield curve is getting steeper, which is good for financial companies, particularly, for mortgage companies. The market had a great run yesterday, and today there might be a pause. But I expect it to close higher.

10:45 AM
Market is still resilient. The volume is very heavy but the internal breath is very health. Up advances are large than declines. Hold on.

Seeking entry point for QQQQ.

2:10 PM
First time see the crazy stocks, bidu and lvs. Unfortunately, I have unloaded around 1:30 pm today. Anyway, the stock has a long up leg.

8:00 PM
The market is getting crazy. It is the time that everybody can make money in the market. I think it should last at least 3 months.

Tomorrow plan/action:
1. Sell MPEL at open.

Monday 10-1-2007

8:50 AM
The market is very resilient. The world market is up this morning. And US market had some bad news from financials such as Citibank and UBS. But I believe the worst is over already, and the market is going up. Dow 14000 will be broken easily.

Watch FNM closely.

12:00 PM
Wow, wow! All major indices are up 1%. Hang on tough.

4:25 PM
Smile! I just don't believe so many people still can't believe this up movement is for real. Just look at the volume of today. There is just not that much. This leads me to believe that the market will move up much much higher. Hold on the long positions.

Today, the financial, home builders, and real estate related stocks are bottoming up. If any weakness in those segments, buy stocks (not options) for a long term run.

7:45 PM
Tomorrow plan
1. Mainly looking for exiting calls.

• unload QQQQ (calls) at $1.9
• unload AAPL calls at $11

2. Watch sigm closely, this is a video semi play with good ranking in IBD

Weekend 09-29/30-2007

2 noticeable development:
1. US market still hold up well. In the handle forming stage of cup and handle shape, it is ready to break up any time;
2. Chinese ADRs have been performing incredibly well. The back driven news is that China is opening the foreign investment channel so that people in China can invest overseas. Opening HK market to mainland people means it opens the whole world to mainland people. This is a very positive news.


Date/High within 30 days/Low on rate cut date/Difference/Percentage
23-Dec-91/3297/2934/363/0.123722
15-Oct-98/9042/7885/1157/0.146734
18-Sep-07*/15215/13403/1812/0.135*
as of today/13924/13403/521/0.039

* Projection for the movement in 30 days.

Next week focus play:
China play SSRX and DSX. Hold all China stocks. Trade calls.

Friday 09-28-2007

8:45 AM
Yesterday's restless open market orders were totally murdered. But I am patient. The mistake has been made and don't make another mistake.

The pre-market is little bit lower, but I am not worry about it at all. The PCI report was just out, and there is no inflation. Equity should go up.

Looking for long GLD and MOO. Seeking an entry point. But no hurry!

11:00 AM
Now I am eating the results of yesterday's calls. The market is in consolidation mode.
Against any buying rules are suicidal. Although I still hanging here, I think this is a painful lesson which has to keep in mind. NEVER trade without refering the rules.

1:00 PM
Luckily, it is the bull market. The market should be turning around very quick.

Thursday 9-27-2007

9:15 AM
It is one of the days that are hard to deal with. The world market is up big, and here, the pre-market is up big.

11:00 AM
I would be a big pig/or a raging bull (if it is a better word) getting slaught rather than be smart. I think the market is very resiliant. I have bought a few calls at the market open prices which are the highest prices so far. DAMN!

1:00 PM
If you blink, you lose. I hate the market doing this, it penalizes if you are weak.

8:30 PM
Tonight China play:
SMI (buy at open)
CNTF (just left the bottom island)

Wednesday 9-26-2007

9:00 AM
The pre-market is up. Again, the market is not overbought yet. Although some leaders are overbought, but it shouldn't prevent making any advance. Yesterday was a good turnaround day. I expect all indices increase over 1% today as the confirmation day for last Tuesday's rally.

11:00 AM
Market is up. But tech leaders are down some profit taken. It should be a buy.

12:00 PM
Just an observation, on the employment minium wage post, 2007 - $5.85, 2008 - $6.55, 2009- $7.25. We should see 2 things: 1. Dollar value direction; 2. Slope of that direction. The dollar will be down for about 25% for the coming 2 years. Wow!

1:00 PM
This morning, bottom finished GOOG and BIDU's calls. Have just got in BNI (railroad) for a long term play. Warren Buffett bought 6000 shares of it at $79.97. This is not really the main reason. The main reason is for dollar crisis play. Ref last weekend comments. I believe that the tech leaders will resume their up marching, but the indices might be down a little tomorrow, if the market keeps current status quo.

2:30 PM
Apparantly, it can't. The indices are fading. The DOW and SP haven't broken up yet. QQQQ is a little bit of ahead of itself. Again, no short, just buy in dip. Get ready for 2% minor correction from here.

But I do believe that there will be a quick and brief chance for the longs to get out before it starts dropping. The correction time-frame is about 1 week.

9:45 PM
30% in cash, 12.5% in mutual fund for long hual, 50% long stocks.

• Interesting China stocks: long, hmin;
• TIE (the ceo bought stocks on 9/10), CG, CSCO calls.

Tuesday 9-25-2007

9:10 AM
Definitely a down day.

10:40 AM
Just off the meeting, and the market is up. Wow! The market is in a very strong bull mode. Hold on everything. I think Carl might be right this time. He believes that QQQQ should go straight up to $52.5 without any stops.

2:00 PM
The market hold on very well with many bad news today. Consumer confidence slippery, the August housing existing houses sale news, Lennar's very bad earning, Target and Lowe's lower sales, BP's warning on its earning.

This market will go up much higher. Stay away from the market a little bit. Let the market do its things. Another observation is that whenever there is a housing bad news, other sectors goes higher. That means people are buying into the market and dumping their housing investments.

I am very glad today as last night, I have predicted that PIR and BBBY will move lower. Today, PIR is down 11% and BBBY is down 4.5%. It surely increases my self confidence.

10:30 PM
China and Tech stocks had a very good day. The trend looks to be up further. China stocks are very volatile. Be very careful. Major play for tomorrow should be profit taken.

Monday 9-24-2007

Market is healthy and going higher. The major indices are not overbought yet. So no worry for today.

10:20 AM
Market is fine. The indices are down a little bit but will go up. It is a classic up day with a little profit taken btw 10 - 10:30 am. SNDA is up very well.

12:00 PM
Tech leaders are running crazy. I missed all of them. They are in the ultimate run. Wait for the pull back, then long and hold 100 shares of AAPL in 2735 account.

3:45 PM
The market is down, but the internal is not very weak. I expect it goes down further tomorrow, the buy might come in Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. Then resume the uptrend.

The TNH is very volital. Got in for the trend line broken up signal, but is down 2.5% for the first day. Ouch! The volume is light and pull back is in order, I will hold it for a while. BUT, the lesson is that buy into trend line breaks is a late game.

Do the buying entry scan is necessary. Meanwhile, need to update a better stock candidates list, which should include Russell 1000, BRIC ADRs

10:30 PM
Paper trade: Short retails BBBY - buy oct 35 put; PIR - buy mar 5 put

09-23-2007 Weekend

James Turk: "The coming collapse of the dollar and how to profit from it"

(US Gold Reserver)*(Gold's Market Price)/M3 = Fear Index.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1144015820.php

http://www.goldmoney.com/

How other assets will fare in a currency crisis:

1. Cash: Down with the dollar;

2. US bonds: The worst possible place to be;

3. Foreign bonds: Early winner, late loser;

4. Real Estate: Not this time;
a. Prices are sky-high;
b. Home equity at a record low. 70s, Americans owned 70% of their homes, and owned the bank 30% of their home value
c. Mortgage rates are at lowest level;

5. US Stocks: a falling dollar equals rising exports;
a. US companies such as gold miners and resource companies, commodity producers and farmers. The only thing holding farmers back was a shortage of railcars to transport their products to major ports. So look for a boom in demand for new transportation capacity and soaring railroad profits. Same applies to copper, zinc, etc. The best bet is an "inelastic supply curve" which means they are unable to quickly ramp up production of whatever they are selling.
b. US manufacturers benefit from falling dollars are companies in BUFGX and DGAGX mutual funds
c. But all bets are off when the crisis goes global.

6. Debt: To leverage or not, that is the question.

7. Short Selling: a. Importers;b. Financials; c. Home builders

9-22-2007 Weekend

That last week was a very good week. After Fed cut, ppl are buying. The strong sectors are commodities, oil, metal, and high tech. In general, S&P is up 5% this year so far. For a pre-election year, the average is up 15%. So we have 10% to go UP.

Here is my view of the whole market:
From here ($INDU at 13820), it will go up to 14000 ish. Then consolidate for a while. The next leg up is 14600. This time, the chance of down is very small. Any dip is a good buy.

My plan for next week:
****Again, don't SHORT, not worth it.

Strong segment: Ocean dry cargo(DSX), US Fertilizer(TRA), US Railroad(BNI), US Metal - Ores and natural resource (CTB), HighTech, and China.

Weak segment: Finance, Importers, Home builders

Operations:

• Long what you have
• Long BNI 1 Jan L-09 call
• Long Farmers call
• Focus calls trade on AAPL, GOOG, and QQQQ.

renshan2735:
1. Keep holding intc, nvda - 25%
1. Keep holding hov - 25% (looking for opp to unload)
1. Long trade SNDA calls - 2%
2. Long trade AAPL calls - 20%
2. Find a biotech and go long - 10%

2. Long 100 shares of TNH at open on Monday (just broke out and tested the upper trend line)
2. Seeking Call 10 TRA oct 25.

2. Seeking Call 1 Leap-09 BNI Jan 60

2. Seeking Long CTB stock (look at monthly chart, wow!!!)

2. Long 100 shares of NM at open on Monday (just broke out and wait to confirm retesting the upper trend line, and then add more positions)

renshan2:
1. Keep holding AAPL - 15%
1. Keep holding DSX and TASR - 35%
1. Keep holding INTC calls - 2%
1. Keep holding Fidelity Securities Fund Leveraged Company Stock Fund - FLVCX - 10%
1. Long trade SNDA calls - 2%
2. Long trade GOOG calls - 25%
2. Seeking Call SNP

r2y:
1. Keep TASR - 45%
1. Keep DODFX - 30%
1. Keep PRMTX - 25%
1. Long trade DEll calls - 1%
2. Call 20 DSX oct 25 at market open, looking entry for another 20 calls. (Show buying entry signal, ACTION now)
- Inject $5000.

Friday 09-21-2007

7:20 AM
Didn't have time follow up with the market after 2:25 pm yesterday. But overall, it held up well, though down a fraction. All my buying orders were filled. Basically, I am holding AAPL, BIDU, QQQQ, and DELL calls.

The pre-market is up this morning. From TA, I see no resistance for QQQQ to make new high. Watch out its breaking up. If it does, QQQQ should go up to at least 55 in the coming 2 months. The bull is very strong. GS had a good quarter even with subprime crisis. ORCL had a very good quarter which should lift QQQQ. "China" word is very everywhere. CHINAs, OIL, and QQQQ.

Today's Watch/Action:
1. SINA: It breaks out from a nice cup and handle formation, and is giving 15 minutes entry signal. Add small position at open for long term hold.
2. DSX: It is giving 5 minutes buying signal. Getting some at open for mid term hold.
3. BIDU is showing overbought in daily chart. But for a period, the stock went up strong with overbought signal along. So far, the minutes chart RSI shows fine. Watch it closely.

8:00 AM
After study, No SINA, it has past its entry point at 36 already.
Add SNDA oct 40 calls whenever it is dip to $.20 (20+20+20). At 33, SNDA is a very good buy, stop at 31. Target 48.

9:00 AM
Strong call INTC oct 27.5 (50+50).

10:30 AM
Market opened up strong and held up well. I have sold BIDU's calls, but showed with a little bit of greed. Again, if the signal shows, sell with market order.

Didn't get chances to load up SNDA's call. It went up like crazy. Added calls of INTC.

The market is healthy. I will evaluate around 2:30 pm.

1:50 PM
I am out of all short term calls. The market is done. Traders are going home and having good time. No Options trades in Friday afternoon. Watch carefully how the options get expired.

4:00 PM
Finally got in some SNDA oct calls. Meanwhile, sold its stocks.

Again, Market can't go straight. I think next week we should see some weakness at very beginning.

Next week focus on ADRs and International companies, pure US companies will have little bit hard time here.

Happy weekend!

Thursday 09-20-2007

6:54 AM
Due to the triple options expiration day tomorrow. The today's market should be calm and quiet. Trading in a narrow range. The pre-market is down, but I still think it should hold up well.

Last night, CMTL had a good earning report. Normally, it drops. But it was higher last night and pre-market. From its chart, it should go up after that and the gap won't get filled for a long time. This time, I think the good news has been leaked. Yesterday it had double average volume. With this hot market, and the stock has some priced in. I believe this gap will get filled very soon unless today's volume close to 2M. So basically towards SELL (tight up the trailing stop by 5 minutes). Again, keep the fund available for CMTL, once it pulls back to its lower bollinger band, double the dose with calls.

Action for today:
No more new position, just trade (buy low and sell high on long side).
Day Trade Apple calls.
Day Trade HOV calls.

8:40 AM
Cover the short position in r2y asap. Luckily it won't lose too much.

12:00 PM
Market is slow, and trades in a narrow range. Covered QQQQ with 2 cents lose. Opened up BIDU put and DELL call. No biggie. Overall, the NAS volume is on average, which signs a healthy market. It is just doing some consolidation right now. Don't hold short position overnight.

2:00 PM
I have confirmly strengthed my belief that the market will go higher. Today, the market is making a candlestick bullish pattern. If it can keep till close, add calls once TAs tells you. Focus on AAPL, GOOG, and BIDU.

Wednesday 9-19-2007

The world market is on fire. US market should continue. (pre-market)

It does open higher, and has been trading for 1 hour now. It is still going higher. Based on Gap open 30 minutes statistics, I believe it will go higher today.

Bought 200 NVDA at open, and added 300 more after it pulled back a little bit.

We had a first time sell off in the last hour. I regard that as a distribution. Market should still be going higher. From here, only seeking for exiting points. Around 11 am, I have sold all the options (calls), half position of HOV, and half position of CMTL. (noon)

The market indices are forming H&S formation, which signs a top. (noon)

The market went back with a decent close. The trend is still healthy. No SHORTs here.

Action Today:
NVDA: Buy 200 at open and add more once it breaks up of 36.

Action tomorrow:
Long 30 Dell oct calls by at open.
Trade Apple calls.
Day Trade HOV stocks.

Bigger Plan:
1. Long QQQQ calls (Oct 51 and 52 Calls) Total 100 on 60 minutes signal.
2. Long +HOVJB (Oct 10 call) 50 and +HOVJV (Oct 12.5 call) 50 Or others depends on the time value (the less the better) on 60 minutes signal.

Tuesday 09-18-2007

It is a big day. I have a plan to play it in neutral. Basically, trade it in the both sides after 2:15 pm.

It is 1:50 pm. Unfortunately, I won't be able to make it since I will have a meeting at week. This time, the market has been up, though it is leveled a little bit. Most likely it will be up and down right after the announcement. But the direction should be continously up. So my guess is that the market will be down first, then up.

The fed cut the interest rate by 50 points, and lower the discount rate again. So, it went up 300 points. there is no down turn at all. What a day!

I loaded up buying some orders but due to the work and interruption, I didn't acomplish as what I planned to. In addition, Ameritrade broker accounts were frozen. Next time, just use the market order.

Play Defence this week. Confirmed before any actions.
The fed will cut rate at 2:15 pm on Tuesday. It is widely expecting the market will sell off. But history indicates right after the fed fund cut, in 3-6 months, the market will up average 10%. So who knows what will happen on that day. My strategy is as follows,
Before the fed announcement
1. Sell calls whenever there is any chance with profit ;
After fed announcement on Tuesday and Wednesday
2. Buy 10 contracts of Jan 2008 calls of QQQQ and SPY on Tuesday and Wednesday on any dip in yuedongr2y.
3. Trade HOV options between $10 - 13 in renshan2735.
4. Trade Oct calls for AAPL, GOOG, AMZN in the range.

Actions tomorrow plan:
1. Tight up trailing stop on HOV;
2. Unload options;
3. Buy on dip;

Monday 09-17-2007

The European's are selling, which continued last Friday's subprime crisis. As the US didn't get affected last Friday, or let's say it has passed this stage. The pre-market was down, but has pulled back up a little bit. Aapl and Goog are strong. They are up (a little though). (pre-market)

The market is down with very light volume. I guess this week will be a very wild week with wild swing of both sides. Psychologically Longs are definitely not buying, and it is the Shorts world today. The problem is tomorrow, will the Long fight back? (noon).

If the market can recoup most of the lost today, it is very Bullish. Now, it is 2:20 pm, I don't see any selling. (Afternoon)

Friday 09-14-2007

Today, there is an important retail sale report. But major indices are down big at pre-market, due to UK subprime problem. The strategy for today is to watch. I don't expect the market drop too much as the 50 MA has been tested twice a few days ago.

Yesterday, GM/steel and some retails are strong. Today, we are having retail sale report. I guess the retail sales number should be good. It was leaked out early, I guess. Now, the game starts again. Let's see what the market reaction to this retail sales number. (pre-market)

The retails sales number was not good. The market gap down at the open, but coming back nicely, which shows a very bullish sign. I should expect some big uptrend soon. (noon)

Certainly not today, but all major indices closed in positive. I am still bullish. (after market)

Happy Weekend!

Thursday 9-13-2007

The market is going up. Yesterday operation proved being wrong. Cover the QQQQ short ASAP. Then wait the S&P passes 1474 and QQQQ passes 49.4, long AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN. (pre-market)

The market does what I was expected, but my operation didn't generate profits so far. The reason was I acted too early. Again, TAs are good friends. Still need to follow up with the trends. During the time, the DOW and S&P was up strong, but NAZ lagged. I believe the NAZ will catch up. Ref the action items, need to study hard on this pattern (daily based). It shows very strong upwards. (11:00 am)

The market drafted in the late afternoon trading. Will I categorize it as a distrubition day?Definitely not. Dow and S&P broke up. But NAZ didn't. Watch those broke up line carefully. My take on the market is going up. The last 5 minutes trades was strong upwards. I think that NAZ was strong (above 50 MA already), now DOW and SP are above 50 MA. (4:00 pm)

The market is definitely in the break out mode, but we just don't know when it breaks.

Action:
1. Does This pattern hint a huge leg up?
%K crosses or about to crosses D%;
%K and %D are between 30-70 level;
MACD and signal lines are almost parallel around 0 line.
2. DSX announced 10M shares sell, watch out and buy from the dip;
3. Is GOOG about to break up?

Books to read

1．《我怎样在股票市场赚了两百万》(How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market)，作者Nicholas(* * * *),
　　2．《交易为生》(Trading for a Living)，作者Dr. Alexander Elder, John　Wiley 出版(1993) (Reading on 9-12-07)
　　3．《日本蜡烛图技术》(Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques)，作者Steve Nison, Prentice Hall 出版(1991年5月) (Done on 8-15-2007)
　　4．《怎样在股票市场赚钱》(How to Make Money in Stocks)，作者William J.O' Neill McGraw-Hill 出版(1994年9月) (Done on 1-1-2000)
　　5．《自律的交易者》(The Disciplined Trader)，作者Mark Douglas，Prentice Hall 出版(1990年6月)
　　6．《胜利者拿走全部》(Winner Take All)，作者 William Gallacher，Irwin出版(1997年3月)
　　7．《股票作手回忆录》(Reminiscences of a Stack Operator)，作者 Edwin Lefever, Market Place Books 出版 (Done on 9-10-2007)
　　8．《电子化的即日交易者》(The Electronic Day Trader)，作者 Marc Freidfertig 和George West，NcGraw--Hill出版(1998年)
　　9．《怎样开始电子化的即日交易》(How to Get Started in Electronic Day Trading)，作者David Nassar, McGraw--Hill出版(1998年11月)
　　10．《在线即日交易者的策略》(Strategies for the On-line Day Trader)，作者 Femando Gonzalez和William Rhee, McGraw-Hi11出版(1999年7月)

Wednesday 09-12-2007

Major indices are down in the pre-market. But who knows after an hour, what will happen. My personal take is that the market will flat or upwards, as downwards doesn't make sense at this moment. The fed is cutting the interest rate. According to Lesse Livemore's theory, the market goes with the least resistant way. So to me, I believe the flat is the least resistant way. So overall, trade in a range till Fed's meeting next Tuesday. (8: 40 am)

Follow up with AAPL, it got Cramers bump yesterday and USB's upgrade today. It jump start at 135.99, and went up to 137.40 in the first 30 minutes. It has a good sign. But for a safety perpurse, I have sold 5 contracts at 8.4 first. I am still holding 5 contracts. Watch out the general market carefully, if it drops like rock, I should sell. (10:00 am)

As the market progresses, it is true that the market is flat. But there is a segment showing strong sign. The BIO and Pharm. Study it tonight. (11:00 am)

The market went up a little bit, then went flat again. I believe that if it closes flat, it is a distribution day, and I get out the long and short the market. Meanwhile, if it closes up higher, I should hold the positions. (2:30 pm)

Turn bearish in the late trade of the day, shorted QQQQ at 49.11.

Action for today:
1. Sell AAPL sep 130 calls.
2. Study BIO and Pharm tonight.
3. No buy, focus on sell.
4. Buy after Fed meeting.

Action for tomorrow:
1. Cover the QQQQ short.
2. Study BIO and Pharm
3. Day trade on AAPL (get in 10 oct calls), AMZN call and GOOG call.
4. SPX 1474 50 MA is very important.

Tuesday 09-11-2007

Follow the plan from yesterday, and trade into Long once the market goes lower. (pre-market)

Now the market has been running for an hour, the gap 30 minute trade rule is true. Now it is making now high. During 10 - 10:30, I did a short term trade on apple sep 130 call. It was a good trade before still the entry point was little bit early. Now, let me look into the lunch weakness and entry points. Remember just do a day trade. (10:40 am)

The market still went up higher at close. BUT there was a sell off, then buying up right before the closing. I don't know what it means, we should see. Again, BE very CAREFUL. (9:00 pm)

Plan for tomorrow:
no direction right now. wait for tomorrow.

Monday 09-10-2007

The market is ready to roll. I think that last Friday's lower is the mid-term low. The market has tested the low and now going up higher.

One thing wants to point out that on last Friday, GS stock was strong. It didn't down with the rest. This morning, BSC is up too. (comments on 9:00 am)

The previous comments was written before the market. It was totally contradicted to my Friday's comment. Now it provides that my Friday's comment was right. The market is not turning yet. I am seeing it going down. (comments on 11:30 am)

At noon, it turned and heading higher. But it closed at flat. At 1:15 pm, I entered UA at $61.87. It is a mid-term hold. So I will do a 60-minute trade.

I unloaded Apple Sep 130 call, following the 30-minute TAs. The reason I used 30-minute is that it is option and a short term trade. (commented on 5:00 pm)

Today Summary and tomrrow plan:
From VIX and Tick, it confirms that the market will still go down a little bit. At least it will be volatile. Sell UA first thing in the morning, as it has already reached selling point from 30 minutes chart.

Friday 09-07-2007

The unemployment data was off the guide, people were looking for 15,000 nonfarm jobs created, but the report showed -4,000. The market sold off. The major indices are off 2%. Yesterday the market was up modestily, but $TRAN was off. It should give some hint.

After the market close, the TAs indicators should market continuous weak, and I expect the market is going down for a short term.

Thursday 09-06-2007

After a brief down day, the market is ready to roll. A few tech stocks such as CSCO and IBM were making new highs. I don't expect the market to drop too much at this point. It might go higher than re-test the 50 MA line.

Weekly Stocks Pulse Check And Upcoming Week Plan

NO SHORT in this market

Current Holdings:

Intc: forming the cup and handler, it is in the handler stage. Up target 29, HOLD
Tasr: Suport at 14.95. Target 29.
Aapl: HOLD 100 shares. It is up.
Cmtl: Support at 49. Target 60.
Hov: Bottom at 10. Break the upper range at 13.85. Now it should be in the range $17 - 13.5.

SNDA: Support @ 32.6. Target 41.

NVDA: Support @32. Target 38. The entry was a bit of emotional, although the TAs looked okay. But the trend line is not. Be careful on this one.

1. For new position, use small lot to start, make sure it breaks and is confirmed (retested), then add additional.

Tuesday 09-05-2007

As expected, the market is heading south at pre-open. Watch it carefully, play short today.

Actually, I was just sitting there and watched. The market did go down with light volumes, which prevent me from doing the short. I think that markets will make a top first, then goes down. Just wait for the clear sign for action.

Monday 9-4-2007 - About Market

After the labor day, the market still went up. It was not so strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, buyers coming and pushed the indices higher. Now, QQQQ is close to all time high. The current trend looks like getting out of stream from TA's view. Get prepared for some down turn in the browing.

Monday 09-03-2007 - QQQQ 5 minutes trading

QQQQ trade Chart setup:
1. 5-minutes Candlestick chart
2. Bollinger Bands (Close, 20, 2)
3. EMA (Close, 5/10/50/100/200, 0)
4. Parabolic SAR (0.02,0.02,0.2)
5. Stochastic (14,3,3)
6. MACD (Close, 12,26,9)
7. MFI(14)
8. RSI(14)
9. StochRSI(14)
10.William's %R

BUY Signal:

Diff in of MACD greater than the previous, and both of MACD and Signal lines are negative; And
%K crosses above 20 line, OR, %K above %D almost parallel up approaching 20 line; And
Both RSI and MFI in less than 55 level, and in uptrend; And
Either RSI crosses above 30 or MFI crosses above 35 in near pervious sessions; And
Williams %R crosses above -90 in previous session; And not over -10; And
stochRSI crosses above 0.20 in previous sessions; And not over .90; And
The short signal almost touches the price bar.

SELL Signal:
(
Show bearish reversal in candlestick; And
K% and D% are above 80 level, crosses over preferred; And
MACD crosses signal line preferred (short signal); And
Both RSI and MFI in greater than 65 level; And
stochRSI above .90; And
Williams %R above -10;
) Or Parabolic SAR support level almost touches the price bar.

Preparing for the open

1. Based on TA find the market direction

• Use the weekly TAs indicators to find market general direction,

2. For an uptrend, buy strongest/market leaders/indices in the strongest segment stocks when it is weak, but hasn't broken major trend.

• Entry: a. Setup support level first. b. Scan the stock with up down. Scan TAS, from the daily, 60 minutes, 30 munites, 15 minutes, 10 minutes, 5 minutes. The more buying signals are better. c. Then Use 1 minute or 5 minutes TA for entry. Note: When entry, wait for a bullish candlestick pattern.
• Holding: Keep up the support level accordingly. For a mid term hold, use daily TAs. For a short-term, use short time frame TAs.
• Exit: a. Exit by touching the support level. b. By trading strategy (such as range trade).

3. For a downtrend, sell weakest/market laggers/indices in the weakest segment stocks with a broken trend based on 5-minutes TAs at open.

• Entry: Scan the stock with up down. Scan TAs, from the daily, 60 minutes, 30 munites, 15 minutes, 10 minutes, 5 minutes. The more selling signals are better. Then use 1 minute or 5 minutes TA for entry, wait for a bearish candlestick pattern.
• Holding: Keep up the support level accordingly. For a mid term hold, use daily TAs. For a short-term, use short time frame TAs.
• Exit: a. Exit by touching the support level. b. By trading strategy (such as range trade).

________________________________________

1. Do the research

Rank the stocks based on TA indicators

• MACD and Stochastic Oscillator

Each stock has its own set of histogram values, a statistics data should be very valuable for the research.

buy signal: day3 (MACD - signal) greater than day2 (MACD - signal), and those numbers should be both negative.

buy signal: based on daily chart, lv = 20, day 1 %K and %D both less than lv and %K less than %D; day2 both %K and %D less than lv; day3 %K greater than %D and %D less than lv.

• RSI and MFI

buy signal: in day 1 or day2, RSI less than 20 or MFI less than 30, day 3,

• Williams %R
• ADX
• Parabolic SAR (for major indices and leading stocks only)
• ROC and Momentum

2. Manage risk

3. Market major indicators and other market indicators

• Majors: S&P, Nasq, DOW, NYSE composite
• Minors: ref strategy desk

4. Set Alerts and Triggers

Weekend 9-1-2007 Trade School

Basic techniques:

• Identifying support and resistance

The lows mark the support and the highs mark the resistance. The more height, width, and volume, the more strength of support and resistance levels. Buy at the break out and stop at the little bit lower than the support level.

• Identifying a trend and a trading range

Trendlines - up, down, flat, 1-2-3 Reversal Method, Angle (uptrend degree) or Slope (downtrend degree) (Increase angle or slope sign possible running out of stream or panic selling)

For longer term trading, use logarithmic scaling; for short term trading, use arithmetic.

• Understanding different types of gaps

Common gaps - no higher volume gap. Before use fading the gap, make sure to wait for confirmation of the directional change.

Breakaway gaps - At least 100% increase of the normal volume on the gap day. On the days following the breakaway gap, volume should remain higher than normal for several days in a row. Once volume confirms the gap, enter as early as possible, and place the S/L at the lower rim of the gap.

Continuation gaps - At least 50% increase of the normal volume on the gap day. The next day confirmation is neede in order to enter the trade, and place the S/L at the lower rim of the gap.

Exhaustion gaps - ie, islands that offer excellent trading opportunity. Enter a trade when price moves back into the gap, and place a S/L at the last support.

• Recognizing basic chart patterns

Double Top and Bottom - Entry point at the right side of patterns at the neckline with S/L at the second bottom or top.

Triangles

Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns, enter at break of the trendline, S/L at the last support.

Ascending triangle is a continuation pattern, make sure the trend prior to its formation is an up trend. Enter at break of the trendline, and S/L slightly below the last minor support.

Desceding triangle is just opposite of ascending triangle.

H&S Top and Reversed H&S Bottom - Make sure the volumes match the patterns.

Wedges

Falling wedge is a bullish pattern, and upward wedge is a bearish pattern.

Flags and Pennats are continuation patterns. So only trade with bull plag or bullish pennant on the uptrend; bear flag or bearish pennant on the downtrend.

Rectangles are continuation patterns. 2 ways to trade rectangles (Bullish stock on an uptrend, ):

1. Entry point at the lower channel, and S/L below the support. Take profit at the upper channel.

2. Entry point at after breaking the resistance level and pulling back to re-test the previous resistance level which is current support level , S/L just below the last resistance, i.e., current support level

Rounded bottoms and tops

Round bottoms are bullish and round tops are bearish. From the rim to the bottom, 38% retracement is normal and 62% is extreme.

• Understanding volume

Climactic volume comes at the end of a hard run. At least 100% more than the normal vlume confirms a possible reversal of the short-term trend.

Advanced techniques:

• Moving averages - Trend-following indicator

Most popular setting are 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 period EMAs.

• Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) - Trend-following indicator, MACD and Signal lines are delayed indicator, but the Histogram is a leading indicator

1. When MACD line (fast - solid line) and signal line (slow - dash line) are cross each other, the trading signals are generated.
2. Overbought and oversold conditions: The distance btw the MACD line and the signal line becomes larger, it is possible that the security is overextended.
3. The most powerful signal the MACD can generate is a divergence.
4. MACD histogram: trading signals are generated based on a. the slope of the histogram changes direction; b. an extremely strong signal, there is a price divergence with the MACD histogram.

• Stochastic oscillator - Trend-following indicator

1. Reference lines are at 20% and 80%
2. When %K the fast line rises above %D the slow line, a buy signal is generated.
3. Overbought and oversold levels - Stochastic oscillators work well in a sideway market, but they generate a lot of false signals when the market is in a trend. When either %K or %D falls below 20% level and then rises above that level, a buy signal is generated. When it rises above 80% level and then falls blow that level, a sell signal is generated.
4. Divergence - Bullish divergence occurs when prices establish a new low but stochastic fails to follow suite. A strong buy signal is given as soon as stochastic turns up from its second bottom. The best buy signals are those in which the first bottom is below the 20% reference line and the second is above it.

• Relative strength index - A good leading indicator

1. Reference lines are at 30 and 70.
2. It generates similar buy and sell signals as Stochastic Oscillator, but it is best combined with the trend of the bigger picture.
3. Chart Patterns - it works better with classical TA, such as trendlines, support and resistance, triangles, and H&S
4. Divergences - It gives best signals for this indicator.

• On-balance volume (OBV) - A leading indicator

1. OBV generates trading signals based on its breakout and breakdown.
2. Divergences - An OBV bullish divergence occurs when the price hits a new low while OBV establishes a higher bottom.

• Accumulation/distribution - A leading indicator

• Time segmented volume (TSV)

Friday 8-31-2007 Market

The last last night's plan for yesterday turned out to the true. BUT the problem was I was scared by the market and didn't execute the plan. Yesterday, the market did a big swing, it opened lower, and made higher, then drifted down. It ended with flat. BUT I did notice that that up volume is much bigger than the down volume, which should give the future indication, which I missed.

Anyway, this pre-market, the indices are gapping higher. For sure, the bottom is forming, volumes need to pick up. I will test some water with some short-term trade.

Generally speaking, NO SHORT.

Thursday 8-30-2007

Yesterday, the market did the revenge, it went up and recovered all the lose on Tuesday. Again, this morning in the pre-market, it went down again. I believe this market is in the trading range with upwards in the mid-term.

Wednesday 8-29-2007 - Afternoon

The market is turning around. There is a rumor that the fed might announce the rate cut. With this in mind, plus the coming holiday, people think that the market should go higher. The market opened high and went up to 145, dropped back to 70s, and right now, the indices are up more than 1%.

There might be a setup for a good reading on GDP which will be released tomorrow. Whether the after news market acts, right now, it should be definitely up.

Tomorrow plan:
1. If the direction is decisively up, looking for exit positions from the holdings.
2. If the market goes down, buy COP sep 80 call, GOOG sep 510 call, AAPL sep 130 call.

中国股市

9-17-2007
周二(中国周三)的美联属利率下调是中国股市的一剂兴奋剂, 中国股市总体向上, 但是下调已在眼前. 由于美联属利率下调的利好消息, 国庆前, 中国股市大幅上涨。国庆后，达到压力位。 同时, 庄家大量出货，开始大幅度下挫。
8-28-2007
大盘：整体方向向上，上证在5650有巨大压力，其下调在700-800点。大盘在启动了一年半后，初期的动力股，例如，由前次大跌的股（但不是此次的领头羊， 统称垃圾股）、金融股等会让位给大盘牛市中期的高科技、日用消费、地产、交通等；一般，后期动力股应该是能源、金属等。

我认为大盘牛市在中期，明年春天后会进入后期。

Wednesday 8-29-2007 - Pre-Market

Yesterday, the fed minutes was the excuse for the market sell off. It was down 150 points before the 2 pm fed meeting minutes, right after the meeting minutes release, the market sold off. It was down 270 points at the close.

I think that it started into the retest of previous low mode. The minimum is to test the 200 days line. So the base trend line for this period should be downward.

The action plan:
1. If it is possible, unload the QLD if profit shows.
2. Unload the AAPL sep 130 call if there is any profit;
3. If the index touchs 200 days line, looking to buy some calls in QQQQ.

Tuesday 8-28-2007 - Pre-Market

Monday was low open, most of the time was flat, and then went down to .5%. I saw this as a light distribution day. The follow through day should be important. BTW, Chinese ADRs went up crazy yesterday. But they went straight back down this morning in the pre-market.

Today the lower open is for sure. If it couldn't cover before the market close, things won't look good in the near future. Again since it is in the bottom area, don't sell too heavily.

解密华尔街是怎样操作SP 500的!

简单的讲, 那是PROGRAMNIG TRADING, 分析师早都设好的, CAN'T BEAT.

SP 历史新高1552, 1/2=776, 2002 年熊市结束的底点.

775 X 138.2% (FIBO) = 1072, 2004年的低点(实际是1060)

775 X 150% (FIBO) =1163, 2005 年调整低点的结束.

1552 X 85.4% (FIBO) = 1326, 2006 年的高点, 接着大跌.

1163 +55 (FIBO) =1219, 2006 年的低点, 接着大涨.

1326-1219 = 107

1326+107=1433 2006 年的高点

1060 X 138.2% (FIBO) =1465, 今年的最高点 (实际是1461).

在看这些数值之间的关系.

这次大跌高低点的关系:

1461(约)=(1433- 1219 )x 1.125 ((五边行 MM 线) + 1219
1461-1219= 242, 242 X 2/5 (五边行 MM 线) =96, 1461-96=1364, 这次大跌的低点.

未来目标:

向上

1486=(1433-1219)X 1.25 +1219

1485=1461与1364 重要关系

1510= 1219,1326,1364 重要关系 它是调整的MM 线,99%调整

1552 绝对会冲破.

1708 终点站.

向下

1326 绝非支持.

1315 重大关系, 你自己研究

1265 熊市的最后冲刺, 如果破, 看 1186. 1051 应是熊市的终点.

这些都可以从上面数字找到关系.

Following the curve

Friday 8-24-2007 - Pre-Market

Yesterday was just a consolidation day, the volume was very low and the indices were pretty much flat.

I still think that the market will go higher before to re-test the low. Carl has a good prediction to it. He thought the spy will go to the previous high then go back the base of previous low, but not the pivot low. Then the market will to make new high.

My pain is in the taser. This stock went into consolidation mode, and can't perform right now. I might have to prepare for it further drop, either through buy put to hedge or sell put to go long.

For this period to the end of this month, looking for selling positions.

Wednesday 8-22-2007 - Tomorrow Plan

The after market is going crazy. All the indices are going up huge. I expect the market goes up big tomorrow. The short term top is 13600 (here is 400 points to go.) Tomorrow, buy 10 calls for HOV and BZH. If it reaches 13600 already, sell QLD and any positions in the money

Wednesday 8-22-2007 - Noon

After 2 days consolidation, the market shots up again this morning. Actually, the leaders started moving up early yesterday. I have observed that yesterday, there were very good option movements, i.e., huge percentage movements on those leaders. Today, the option movements are slowing down.

I see it is a good confirmation/follow-through. But meanwhile, keep an eye on the mid-term top. I still expect it testing the previous bottom. But one thing is sure that previous low is the low.

In DQ, many are daily traders. But chuxue/QiuZhiHaoYue is outstanding, here is the his take for Dow:
"The reasons lead me to believe that we are having a V not a W are:

Compare with Feb-Mar correction, what we just had is much steep and deep;
A W will require a center peak point near 13600-13700 level, and that will be a set up for a possible H&S pattern;
The best possible move would be: print a bull flag pole in next 3 days touching 13600; then spend the next week to complete the bull flag below 13600, between 13400 and 13600; then shoot another flag pole to 14100+, DJI needs to take out 14100 to avoid that H&S pattern, after that a falling wedge from 14100 to 13700 will be a good consolidation move to entering into year-end rally.
This is indeed not very hard to do at this point, if you consider that CAT/UTX/MO/XOM all bounced off the 200 EMA and ready to set new highs.
"

Mondy 8-20-2007 - Afternoon

Operational Guide:
1. Test the market with your original expecting direction;
2. If it matches, carry on with 1/3 of the position;
3. If it doesn't match, wait and adjust;
4. If the position is good, add more 1/3; if the position is not good, reduce the position.

Here is my over all expectation for the market:
1. Going up to 13600 in Dow from now on.
2. Going down to re-test the low, generally expected to be hold.
3. If it does hold, add in money call position to AAPL and QQQQ.

Monday 8-20-2007 - Pre-Market

Last Friday, Asian and Europearn markets were down more than 3%, Fed cut discount rate by 50 points in the early morning, and the street rallied. Although the rally faded, the close was up around 2% on all major indices.

During this weekend, people are still talking about subprime problems. But I have noticed that the house prices didn't drop further in Montgomery.

This morning, Asian were up big, covered almost all the lost made last Friday. I see the US future going up. But cautions are still there. I don't expect it goes straight line but at this market low. Normally, you shouldn't sell. Even with sell, it should be short and swift.

What is the best time to trade during the day

it is my observation, there are 3 periods that is best to trade in a day. One could plot his move based on the anticipated move of the market.

8:30-9:00, This is emotion trading. a lot of swings. if you have a good trade overnight, it will brighten your day. if you have a wrong trade, this is also the good time to close your position. just do not panic, wait for the first wave of selling/buying subbued and then make your move.

11:00-1:00. This is when momentum players coming. if you have a stock going high, very likely it will even higher. so, if you are a day trader, this is the time to close and your are done for the day.

2:30-3:00. This is when index funds/ETFs to coming to adjust their position to reflect the market and also a good indication for tomorrow. In a normal market condition, you can short/long a momentum stock and be ready to take advantage of the emotion next day.

Thursday 8-16-2007 - Pre-Market

Last 2 days were brutal. The Dow dropped 200 points each day. Last Tuesday started with a flat session with very thin volume. But in the later session, sell off started. Yesterday, the morning session was lower open and went up higher. All indices were green before 2:30 pm. Right after 2:30 pm, a very strong sell off through closing. With each day 2% drop. People are fearful and scared.

I was buying during those 2 sessions and got buried in seconds. It was a very bad feeling. Anyway, the strong support at QQQQ should be at $45.5, SP at 1380. If both of those lines are broken, it would be very bad. We should see.

Some gurus in DQ are starting changing from short to long. If today is a reverse day, I will add position in the later session. If today continues, I will wait and see.

It proves that housing market should not be bottom yet. Guys in CNBC are talking about taking a few home builders and half of mortgage companies down.

Monday 8-13-2007 - Afternoon

Last weekend, in DQ, you could feel the bearish sentiments all over the place. But Carl Futia's blog pointed that this was the market bottom. Here is a quote from one of the comments:
"
Carl, we all agree with you this market is a screaming buy around current levels.Investor angst is at levels normally associated with meaningful market bottoms. The NYSE Arms hit a very elevated 2.97 Friday morning. The VIX is at the highest level since early 2003. The ISE Sentiment Index 10-day moving average is at the second lowest reading on record. The CBOE total put/call 10-day moving average is also at the second highest reading on record. Money market funds, this week, saw $36 billion in inflows, the most since 2005. As well, the average 30-year mortgage rate fell nine basis points this week to 6.59%. This is down from 6.73% three weeks ago. Trading had a panicky feel again on friday even as global central banks inject further liquidity into the system. Insider buying in general has soared recently, but especially so in financial equities even as investors stampede out the door, according to InsiderScore.com. In fact, this round of insider buying is led by the troubled financial industry, particularly among real estate investment trusts and other companies exposed to the subprime mortgage fallout. Bottom line > BUY
"

This morning, markets jumped open. But it drafted down even since. I expect the market will up from this level, and close higher.

Meanwhile, the home builders are lower due to HOV's earning report. It expects more down trend in the residential housing segment.